Browsing by Author "Smith ANH"
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- ItemLost in the Forest(Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, 2022) Smith HL; Biggs PJ; French NP; Smith ANH; Marshall JCTo date, there remains no satisfactory solution for absent levels in random forest models. Absent levels are levels of a predictor variable encountered during prediction for which no explicit rule exists. Imposing an order on nominal predictors allows absent levels to be integrated and used for prediction. The ordering of predictors has traditionally been via class probabilities with absent levels designated the lowest order. Using a combination of simulated data and pathogen source-attribution models using whole-genome sequencing data, we examine how the method of ordering predictors with absent levels can (i) systematically bias a model, and (ii) affect the out-of-bag error rate. We show that the traditional approach is systematically biased and underestimates out-of-bag error rates, and that this bias is resolved by ordering absent levels according to the a priori hypothesis of equal class probability. We present a novel method of ordering predictors via principal coordinates analysis (PCO) which capitalizes on the similarity between pairs of predictor levels. Absent levels are designated an order according to their similarity to each of the other levels in the training data. We show that the PCO method performs at least as well as the traditional approach of ordering and is not biased.
- ItemMarine reserves indirectly affect fine-scale habitat associations, but not overall densities, of small benthic fishes.(2016-09) Smith ANH; Anderson MJMany large, fishery-targeted predatory species have attained very high relative densities as a direct result of protection by no-take marine reserves. Indirect effects, via interactions with targeted species, may also occur for species that are not themselves targeted by fishing. In some temperate rocky reef ecosystems, indirect effects have caused profound changes in community structure, notably the restoration of predator-urchin-macroalgae trophic cascades. Yet, indirect effects on small benthic reef fishes remain poorly understood, perhaps because of behavioral associations with complex, refuge-providing habitats. Few, if any, studies have evaluated any potential effects of marine reserves on habitat associations in small benthic fishes. We surveyed densities of small benthic fishes, including some endemic species of triplefin (Tripterygiidae), along with fine-scale habitat features in kelp forests on rocky reefs in and around multiple marine reserves in northern New Zealand over 3 years. Bayesian generalized linear mixed models were used to evaluate evidence for (1) main effects of marine reserve protection, (2) associations with habitat gradients, including complexity, and (3) differences in habitat associations inside versus outside reserves. No evidence of overall main effects of marine reserves on species richness or densities of fishes was found. Both richness and densities showed strong associations with gradients in habitat features, particularly habitat complexity. In addition, some species exhibited reserve-by-habitat interactions, having different associations with habitat gradients inside versus outside marine reserves. Two species (Ruanoho whero and Forsterygion flavonigrum) showed stronger positive associations with habitat complexity inside reserves. These results are consistent with the presence of a behavioral risk effect, whereby prey fishes are more strongly attracted to habitats that provide refuge from predation in areas where predators are more abundant. This work highlights the importance of habitat structure and the potential for fishing to affect behavioral interactions and the interspecific dynamic attributes of community structure beyond simple predator-prey consumption and archetypal trophic cascades.
- ItemResidency and movement patterns of an apex predatory shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) at the Galapagos Marine Reserve.(2017) Acuña-Marrero D; Smith ANH; Hammerschlag N; Hearn A; Anderson MJ; Calich H; Pawley MDM; Fischer C; Salinas-de-León PThe potential effectiveness of marine protected areas (MPAs) as a conservation tool for large sharks has been questioned due to the limited spatial extent of most MPAs in contrast to the complex life history and high mobility of many sharks. Here we evaluated the movement dynamics of a highly migratory apex predatory shark (tiger shark Galeocerdo cuvier) at the Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR). Using data from satellite tracking passive acoustic telemetry, and stereo baited remote underwater video, we estimated residency, activity spaces, site fidelity, distributional abundances and migration patterns from the GMR and in relation to nesting beaches of green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas), a seasonally abundant and predictable prey source for large tiger sharks. Tiger sharks exhibited a high degree of philopatry, with 93% of the total satellite-tracked time across all individuals occurring within the GMR. Large sharks (> 200 cm TL) concentrated their movements in front of the two most important green sea turtle-nesting beaches in the GMR, visiting them on a daily basis during nocturnal hours. In contrast, small sharks (< 200 cm TL) rarely visited turtle-nesting areas and displayed diurnal presence at a third location where only immature sharks were found. Small and some large individuals remained in the three study areas even outside of the turtle-nesting season. Only two sharks were satellite-tracked outside of the GMR, and following long-distance migrations, both individuals returned to turtle-nesting beaches at the subsequent turtle-nesting season. The spatial patterns of residency and site fidelity of tiger sharks suggest that the presence of a predictable source of prey and suitable habitats might reduce the spatial extent of this large shark that is highly migratory in other parts of its range. This highly philopatric behaviour enhances the potential effectiveness of the GMR for their protection.