Browsing by Author "Whitehead MG"

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    Brief communication: A magma depletion alternative for vent distribution in volcanic fields
    (Copernicus Publications for the European Geosciences Union, 2025-09-16) Bebbington MS; Whitehead MG; Kereszturi G; Macedonio G
    The location of a volcanic vent controls an eruption’s hazards, intensities, and impact. Current kernel density estimation methods of future vent locations in volcanic fields assume that locations with more past-vents are more likely to produce future-vents. We examine an alternative hypothesis that an eruption depletes the magma source, causing holes or dips in the spatial density estimate for future vent locations. This is illustrated with the Auckland Volcanic Field, Aotearoa-New Zealand, where both magmatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions have occurred, according to the vent location, with the latter resulting in more explosive eruptions and hence hazard.
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    Brief communication: SWM - stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
    (Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2024-06-11) Whitehead MG; Bebbington MS; Li D
    Long-term multi-hazard and risk assessments are produced by combining many hazard-model simulations, each using a slightly different set of inputs to cover the uncertainty space. While most input parameters for these models are relatively well constrained, atmospheric parameters remain problematic unless working on very short timescales (hours to days). Precipitation is a key trigger for many natural hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars. This work presents a stochastic weather model that takes openly available ERA5-Land data and produces long-term, spatially varying precipitation data that mimic the statistical dimensions of real data. This allows precipitation to be robustly included in hazard-model simulations. A working example is provided using 1981–2020 ERA5-Land data for the Rangitāiki–Tarawera catchment, Te Moana-a-Toi / Bay of Plenty, New Zealand.