Journal Articles
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915
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Item Quantifying economic risks to dairy farms from volcanic hazards in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand(Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2025-04-29) McDonald NJ; Dowling L; Harvey EP; Weir AM; Bebbington MS; Bui N; Magill C; Craig HM; Mcdonald GW; Monge JJ; Cronin SJ; Wilson TM; Walker DThe volcanic hazard and risk science for Taranaki Mounga (Taranaki volcano) in Aotearoa / New Zealand is in an advanced state, with robust probabilistic data and a series of direct impact scenarios modelled for the region. Here, we progress this work and demonstrate a method to provide risk information that is nuanced for factors such as location and economic sector and considers the dynamic nature of volcanism with hazards potentially repeated over time. Recognising the fundamental importance of the dairy sector to Taranaki region, this paper provides valuable insights into the potential impacts and risks to heterogeneous dairy cattle farms within the region from volcanic hazards. We provide volcanic impact and risk metrics in economic or monetary terms in order to improve its relevance to decision-makers while reducing the complexity of the impacts. To do this, we developed a dynamic, multi-event farm system model of response and recovery, which takes in hazard intensity metrics from a series of volcanic events and generates the resulting annualised revenues, expenditures, and recovery costs through time. The model is formulated in a generalised way such that it can be used for various other hazard types and agricultural land uses. In our application of the model, we create and apply a suite of 10 000 simulations that capture different iterations of possible future volcanic activity over a 50-year period. These include the generation of lahars following eruptions and associated failures for transport and water supply networks. Farms at five case study locations were modelled to capture the diversity in farm management and the spatial variation in hazard intensities and likelihoods across the region. We provide summaries of the distributions of economic impacts generated, both for individual events and for the 50-year volcanic future horizon. Drawing the information together, we also summarise the results for each case study farm in terms of the value at risk statistic. For the case study farms with negligible lahar risk, we find, with 90 % confidence, that volcanic losses over the next 50 years will not exceed around 10 % of property value. By comparison, for the farm with the most severe lahar and ashfall exposure, we find that, at the same level of confidence, losses extend to approximately half the property value. These results indicate that with access to sufficient risk information, we should anticipate volcanic risk as playing an important role in shaping the future dairy sector in Taranaki region. The modelling pipeline and assessment metrics demonstrated in this paper could be used to assess mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce the risk from volcanic hazards and improve the resilience of farm businesses.Item Ruapehu and Tongariro stratovolcanoes: a review of current understanding(Taylor and Francis Group on behalf of GNS Science Ltd, 2021-05-02) Leonard GS; Cole RP; Christenson BW; Conway CE; Cronin SJ; Gamble JA; Hurst T; Kennedy BM; Miller CA; Procter JN; Pure LR; Townsend DB; White JDL; Wilson CJNRuapehu (150 km3 cone, 150 km3 ring-plain) and Tongariro (90 km3 cone, 60 km3 ring-plain) are iconic stratovolcanoes, formed since ∼230 and ∼350 ka, respectively, in the southern Taupo Volcanic Zone and Taupo Rift. These volcanoes rest on Mesozoic metasedimentary basement with local intervening Miocene sediments. Both volcanoes have complex growth histories, closely linked to the presence or absence of glacial ice that controlled the distribution and preservation of lavas. Ruapehu cone-building vents are focused into a short NNE-separated pair, whereas Tongariro vents are more widely distributed along that trend, the differences reflecting local rifting rates and faulting intensities. Both volcanoes have erupted basaltic andesite to dacite (53–66 wt.% silica), but mostly plagioclase-two pyroxene andesites from storage zones at 5–10 km depth. Erupted compositions contain evidence for magma mixing and interaction with basement rocks. Each volcano has an independent magmatic system and a growth history related to long-term (>104 years) cycles of mantle-derived magma supply, unrelated to glacial/interglacial cycles. Historic eruptions at both volcanoes are compositionally diverse, reflecting small, dispersed magma sources. Both volcanoes often show signs of volcanic unrest and have erupted with a wide range of styles and associated hazards, most recently in 2007 (Ruapehu) and 2012 (Tongariro).Item The geological history and hazards of a long-lived stratovolcano, Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand(Taylor and Francis Group on behalf of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 2021-03-17) Cronin SJ; Zernack AV; Ukstins IA; Turner MB; Torres-Orozco R; Stewart RB; Smith IEM; Procter JN; Price R; Platz T; Petterson M; Neall VE; McDonald GS; Lerner GA; Damaschcke M; Bebbington MSMt. Taranaki is an andesitic stratovolcano in the western North Island of New Zealand. Its magmas show slab-dehydration signatures and over the last 200 kyr they show gradually increasing incompatible element concentrations. Source basaltic melts from the upper mantle lithosphere pond at the base of the crust (∼25 km), interacting with other stalled melts rich in amphibole. Evolved hydrous magmas rise and pause in the mid crust (14–6 km), before taking separate pathways to eruption. Over 228 tephras erupted over the last 30 kyr display a 1000–1500 yr-periodic cycle with a five-fold variation in eruption frequency. Magmatic supply and/or tectonic regime could control this rate-variability. The volcano has collapsed and re-grown 16 times, producing large (2 to >7.5 km3) debris avalanches. Magma intrusion along N-S striking faults below the edifice are the most likely trigger for its failure. The largest Mt. Taranaki Plinian eruption columns reach ∼27 km high, dispersing 0.1 to 0.6 km3 falls throughout the North Island. Smaller explosive eruptions, or dome-growth and collapse episodes were more frequent. Block-and-ash flows reached up to 13 km from the vent, while the largest pumice pyroclastic density currents travelled >23 km. Mt. Taranaki last erupted in AD1790 and the present annual probability of eruption is 1–1.3%.