Journal Articles

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Start date: 2020Subject: search.filters.subject.Risk

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    Spatial and temporal epidemiology of FMD in Bhutan (2011–2019)
    (BioMed Central Ltd, 2025-08-19) Letho S; Compton C
    Background: Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is an important disease in livestock in Bhutan due to its significant social and economic impacts to the farmers as well as to the government. FMD outbreaks continue to occur every year with greater frequency in some parts of the country despite the implementation of control measures. It is imperative to understand the current patterns of the disease for planning effective control programs. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of FMD in Bhutan since the most recent national survey. Methodology: Nine year’s (2011–2019) of national FMD outbreak data was used for this study. An investigation of global spatial autocorrelation was undertaken using the K difference function statistic and local spatial clusters of FMD outbreaks using Kulldorff’s spatial scan statistic. Retrospective spatio-temporal analysis was conducted using a Bernoulli probability model with monthly aggregation of data. A non-stationary cosinor model was used to examine seasonality and trend of outbreaks. Results: The K function statistic detected significant global spatial autocorrelation of FMD outbreaks (p < 0.02) and Kulldorff’s spatial scan statistic identified two outbreak clusters in west Bhutan- the first primary cluster (p < 0.002) with relative risk (RR) of 5.22 and radius of 19.77 km in Paro and Thimphu districts and the second primary cluster (p < 0.006, RR = 8.44 radius: 8.98 km) in Punakha and Wangdue Phodrang districts. The spatio-temporal scan test detected a single significant (P < 0.001) space–time cluster of 22 FMD outbreaks centred in south-west Bhutan with a radius of 60 km over an 8-month period in 2018—2019. The temporal analysis indicated that, on an average there were 0.5 (95% CI: 0.2—0.8) additional outbreaks per month in the seasonal winter peaks at 1.9 months (95% CI: 12.55 -3.64) compared with the overall monthly average. Conclusion: The western and southern regions of Bhutan have experienced the greatest overall incidence and significant spatial and spatio-temporal clusters of outbreaks of FMD during the period 2011—2019, These findings in districts in the western medium FMD risk surveillance zone threaten progress to control of FMD in Bhutan.
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    How should we manage fatigue in on-call workers? A review of guidance materials and a systematic review of the evidence-base
    (Elsevier Ltd, 2025-02) Bumpstead H; Kovac K; Ferguson SA; Vincent GE; Bachmann A; Signal L; Aisbett B; Thomas MJW; Sprajcer M; Vitiello M
    On-call work is known to contribute to disrupted sleep, fatigue, and an increased risk of incidentor injury. This review aimed to a) identify current on-call management strategies that are suggested or required by regulatory bodies, and b) determine if there is empirical evidence to support these strategies in managing the fatigue of on-call workers. A grey literature search produced 65 relevant guidance materials. A systematic inductive thematic process identified consistent strategies included in these materials: 1) regularity/predictability of shifts, 2) fatigue management policy, 3) prescriptive rule sets, 4) fitness for work assessment, 5) on-the-day control measures, 6) risk assessment, 7) training and education, and 8) call management. Subsequently, a systematic review identified 17 original studies on the effectiveness of fatigue management strategies in on-call workers. Very little research has been done on fatigue management strategies for on-call workers outside of some prescriptive hours of work limitations. These limitations generally reduced fatigue, but often had the unintended consequence of increasing workload, which may inadvertently increase overall risk. Training, education, and call management (e.g., protected naps during on-call periods) also had some supporting evidence. The current gap in evidence emphasises the critical need for research on tailored on-call fatigue management strategies.
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    Risk Analysis of Pension Fund Investment Choices
    (John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 2023-09-01) Bissoondoyal‐Bheenick E; Brooks R; Do X
    We provide a comprehensive and more consistent approach to analyse and compare the risk-return relationships of Australian superannuation investment options for the period January 1990 to December 2016. In estimating the risk profiles of the investment options, we allow for the movement of the asset classes over time by employing a varying coefficient panel estimation technique. We find that while risk increases across different investment options from moderate to aggressive options, using different percentages of identifying a balanced fund does not impact the long-term risk measurement. We equally find that the risk-return relationships of investment options are not sensitive to the modelling framework, except for the crisis analysis, in which the Fama-French five-factor model provides greater sensitivity.