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Item Political polarization and wellbeing: Investigating potential intrapersonal harm From affective polarization(Ubiquity Press, 2025-12-01) McMurtrie B; Roemer A; Philipp M; Hebden R; Williams MAffective polarization—antipathy towards members of one’s political out-group—may pose challenges to social cohesion and personal wellbeing. Prior studies have suggested that one’s affective polarization may cause intrapersonal harm as well as interpersonal harm. It has been associated with reduced social support, increased stress, and worse physical health. This pre-registered study investigated the intrapersonal harm of affective polarization using a six-wave longitudinal survey (N = 470). Affective polarization, social support, perceived stress, and self-rated health were measured fortnightly for three months preceding the 2024 US presidential election. Random intercept cross-lagged panel models were employed to investigate the within-person effects of affective polarization on these indicators of wellbeing. Contrary to hypotheses, none of the hypothesized cross-lagged effects were significant, suggesting that changes in affective polarization did not predict changes in social support, stress, or health. However, cross-sectional analyses did reflect past findings, showing that higher levels of affective polarization were associated with lower social support, greater stress, and worse health. We additionally found evidence for perceived stress causing moderate increases in affective polarization. Stable differences by political orientation were also observed in our sample, with liberals reporting higher affective polarization and stress, lower social support, and worse health. Despite the lack of significant effects, potentially due to limitations such as sample size and measurement constraints, our findings underscore the importance of further investigations with appropriate robust designs to clarify the relationship between affective polarization and wellbeing. These results challenge the assumption that affective polarization directly drives declines in wellbeing.Item Quantifying opponent process dynamics in pornography use and masturbation: An exploratory ecological momentary assessment study(Springer, 2025-11-21) Henry N; Pedersen M; Williams M; Donkin LThe causal relationships between pornography use, masturbation, moral incongruence, and mental health are poorly understood. While the link between problematic pornography use (PPU) and depression is well documented, the temporal dynamics associated with pornography use and masturbation have not yet been quantified. Utilizing an exploratory ecological momentary assessment (EMA) design, we measured the temporal dynamics of cognitive and affective state variables collected from 22 participants before, during, and after pornography use and masturbation, and examined the moderating role of moral incongruence in these relationships. Participants completed an initial survey followed by a four-week EMA, capturing data on sexual activities and cognitive and affective state variables. Bayesian hierarchical mixed-effects models were employed to analyze temporal dynamics. Findings suggest that pornography use and masturbation were linked to changes in affective and cognitive states that spiked both before and after sexual episodes. These states were generally more pronounced and sustained in participants with high moral incongruence, who experienced transient increases in shame, guilt, difficulty thinking, relationship disconnectedness, craving for sexual intercourse, and mood deterioration after pornography use and masturbation. These shifts typically persisted for several hours before decaying to baseline levels. High-incongruence participants also experienced strong spikes in craving prior to sexual episodes, while low-incongruence participants experienced craving spikes after pornography use and masturbation, indicating possible sensitization effects. Our findings also signalled potential evidence for “brain fog” following pornography use in both low and high-incongruence participants. Further, we discovered opponent process dynamics in the mood of high-incongruence participants, providing a possible causal mechanism that may explain how PPU can lead to depression.Item Out of the rabbit hole: new research shows people can change their minds about conspiracy theories(2024-02-19) Williams M; Kerr J; Marques MItem New research challenges the idea of a ‘vicious cycle’ between psychological distress and conspiracy beliefs(2025-10-13) Fox N; Williams M; Hill SItem Antecedents of bullying victimisation in adolescents: a fresh look at Aotearoa New Zealand(Taylor & Francis Group, 2024-08-13) Birchall M; Drummond A; Williams MResearch has consistently demonstrated that the prevalence of school bullying in Aotearoa New Zealand exceeds those observed in other developed countries. Despite the need to understand the risk and protective factors for bullying victimisation, there remains a paucity of research in the New Zealand context. The present study aimed to investigate the risk factors for bullying victimisation by conducting a secondary data analysis on a large and representative sample of 15-year-olds from New Zealand using data collected during the 2018 Programme for International Student Assessment (N = 4137). A multiple regression analysis identified eight risk factors which were significantly associated with at least one form of school bullying. The strongest effects indicated that increased parental support and school belonging were associated with lower victimisation, while classroom disorder and school competitiveness were associated with greater victimisation risk. The implications of these findings for future research are discussed.Item Democracy and belief in conspiracy theories in New Zealand(Australian Political Studies Association, 2022) Marques MD; Hill SR; Clarke EJR; Williams M; Ling M; Kerr J; Douglas K; Cichocka A; Sibley CThe COVID-19 pandemic supercharged the spread of fake news, misinformation, and conspiracy theories worldwide. Using a national probability sample of adults from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study during 2020 (17–99 years old; M = 48.59, SD = 13.86; 63% women, 37% men; N = 41,487), we examined the associations between agreement with general conspiracy beliefs and political indicators of intention to vote and satisfaction with government, alongside political factors including trust in politicians, political efficacy, identity centrality, and political ideology. Left-wing political ideology, trust in politicians, and political efficacy accounted for most of the explained variance in satisfaction with the government. General conspiracy belief was also a unique contributor to lower satisfaction with the government. We also found a curvilinear relationship between political ideology with heightened belief in conspiracies at both ideological extremes and the centre. Findings are discussed in terms of the consequences of conspiracy belief on democratic engagement.
Item Do stress and anxiety lead to belief in conspiracy theories? [version 1; peer review: 5 approved].(F1000 Research Limited on behalf of Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2023-09-05) Fox N; Williams MConspiracies happen, and some conspiracy theories are warranted by evidence. Nevertheless, a non-trivial proportion of the public express belief in conspiracy theories that are not warranted by evidence. Psychological research has therefore investigated the motives that might lead someone to believe a conspiracy theory even where the available evidence for the theory is weak. Two potential causes that have been proposed in the literature and embedded in theorising are psychological stress and anxiety. Prior studies have provided some evidence that stress and anxiety are positively correlated with belief in conspiracy theories, but it remains unclear whether this apparent effect might be accounted for by plausible confounding variables. Furthermore, there have been few preregistered examinations of the proposed effects of stress and anxiety, rendering it unclear to what degree this proposition has yet been subjected to a severe test. In two preregistered cross-sectional survey studies, we tested whether higher perceived stress and anxiety significantly predicted belief in conspiracy theories while controlling for plausible confounding variables (age, education, subjective social status, and political orientation). We analysed data using structural equation models, allowing measurement error to be explicitly modelled and accounted for. In Study 1 (N =502), a cross-sectional survey of Australasian participants indicated that perceived stress and anxiety did not have significant estimated effects on belief in conspiracy theories. In Study 2 (N =1020), a cross-sectional survey of US participants showed a small significant positive effect of perceived stress, but not anxiety, on belief in conspiracy theories. The present results provide very tentative evidence for an effect of perceived stress on belief in conspiracy theories. However, it is increasingly evident that this effect, if it exists at all, is not large. [version 1; peer review: 5 approved]Item Was Phar Lap killed by gangsters? New research shows which conspiracies people believe in and why(2021-04-27) Marques M; McLennan J; Kerr J; Ling M; Williams MItem A reproduction of the results of Onyike et al. (2003)(2021) Brown NJL; van Rongen J; van der Velde J; Williams M; Schönbrodt, FDOnyike et al. (2003) analyzed data from a large-scale US-American data set, the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES-III), and reported an association between obesity and major depression, especially among people with severe obesity. Here, we report the results of a detailed replication of Onyike et al.’s analyses. While we were able to reproduce the majority of these authors’ descriptive statistics, this took a substantial amount of time and effort, and we found several minor errors in the univariate descriptive statistics reported in their Tables 1 and 2. We were able to reproduce most of Onyike et al.’s bivariate findings regarding the relationship between obesity and depression (Tables 3 and 4), albeit with some small discrepancies (e.g., with respect to the magnitudes of standard errors). On the other hand, we were unable to reproduce Table 5, containing Onyike et al.’s findings with respect to the relationship between obesity and depression when controlling for plausible confounding variables—arguably the paper’s most important results—because some of the included predictor variables appear to be either unavailable, or not coded in the way reported by Onyike et al., in the public NHANES-III data sets. We discuss the implications of our findings for the transparency of reporting and the reproducibility of published results.
