Copyright is owned by the Author of the thesis. Permission is given for a copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research and private study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without the permission of the Author. A STT.WY OF HILL COUNTRY DEVELOPi'rENT ON HOROHHENUA S BEEP FARJ:.IS A thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Agricultural Science in Ag-ricultural Economics and Farm Management at Massey University. RONALD ED1vARD HALFOHD 1 971 ACKN 0\vLEDG El'IE�TS The author wishes to thank Professor A.Ro Fra mpton i'or his advice and encouragement during the study, The author also benefited from discussions with Messrs X. Watson and A o \vard. Programming assistance given by i'lessrs J. Gardner and ,,r, Pa}'ne is gratei'ull y acknohrledgecl. Special thanks are due to Nr Te Sewell who encouraged the :. ,. (;hor to undertake this s tucly, and to the farmers in the Horowhenua district for their co-operation during the farm surveys. The support of the Department of Agriculture who continued to pay the author1s salary and 1d10 met tbe full cotit of the farm survey s is also acknowledged. Finally thanks are due to Hrs Alcock , .. -ho typed thi.s thesis. CHAPTER 1 1 • 1 1 • 2 1 . 3 CHAPTER 2 2 . 1 2.2 2 . � 2. 3 . 1 2. 3 . 2 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION AND THESIS GUIDE Introduction Objectives of the Study Thesis Guide THE HOHO\vHENUA DISTRICT AND HILL COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Introduction Location Physical Features Topography Soil Types 2 . 3.2 , 1 Main Soil Types 2.3 . 3 2 . �- 2 . � • 1 2 . 4 . 2 2.4 . 3 2 . 4 . 4 2 . 5 2 . 6 2 . 7 2.8 2 .9 2 . 1 0 2 . ·t 1 Climate Auxiliary Services Roads, Communications and Transport Services Agri cultural Contractors Fertili ser Works Freezing Works and Saleyards Farm Exten.s i on Services Lending Institutions Slmllllary Hill Country Development Studies The P rofi tability of Development Programmes Ex pos t e S tudies Ex ante S tudies Combined Ex poste and Ex ante Studies The Generalised Model The Approach Used Page 17 1 7 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 23 23 27 27 29 29 29 30 3 1 32 3 2 35 35 38 38 39 40 2 . 1 2 CHAPTER J J. 1 J.2 J. 2 . 1 J.2.2 J.J J. J. 1 J . J . 2 J.J.J J . J .4 J.J . 5 J . J . 6 J.4 J.5 J . 5 . 1 J.5.2 CHAPTER L� 4 . 1 4.2 4 . J 4. 4 4- . 5 4 . 6 4 . 7 4 . 7 . 1 4 . 8 ,4 . 9 Summary PROCEDURES USED Page 4J Introduc tion 46 Farm Surveys 46 Descriptive or Enumerative Surveys 4 7 Interview or Management Surveys 47 Horowhenua Hill C om1. try Surveys 50 The Survey Area 50 Identification of Survey Farms 50 Selection of Survey Farms 5 1 The Survey Method 51 Interview Technique and Experiences 54 The Survey Data 5 6 The Value of Representative Farms as a Research 5 6 Technique. Financial Analysis of Development Progranmws 5 8 Gardner's Financial Evaluation Program Program Limitations THE RANDON SURVEY FAID1S Introduction Farm S ize Topography Land Use Drainage and Water Supply Bui ldings Tenure of Farms Management o f the Survey Farms Farm Owners F arm Labour 59 6 1 65 65 66 67 67 68 69 6 9 6 9 7 1 h. 1 0 4. 1 1 h. 1 2 LJ. 1 3 h < 1 4 Lf., 1 4, ·1 4, 15 4 . 15.1 L�, 1 5, 2 h . 15 . 3 4. 1 5.4 4.15.5 4. 1 5 . 6 4.15.7 4.15.8 1L15. 9 4. 1 6 4,16. 1 4, 1 6. 2 4,16.3 4.16,4 4. 1 6.5 4.16.6 4.16.7 L�,16,8 4. 1 7 CHAPTER 5. 1 5 Stocking Rates Stock Performance Page 73 77 Recent Prodllction. Increases on Random Survey Farms 79 Future Production 8 1 Attitudes to Developm0nt 82 Adjustments Made to Orfset the Cost Price Squeeze 85 Stock Nanagement 86 Breeding Ewes 86 Discussion 89 Hogget Management 92 Discussion 93 Wethers 94 Discussion 95 Breeding Cows 95 Discussion 97 Dry Cattle 98 Pasture ?-Ianagement 98 Fertiliser Practices 99 Discussion 1 01 Subdivision 103 Discussion 1 04 Oversowing and Pa s ture Improvement 1 05 Reversion 1 05 11' eed C ontrol 1 0 6 Pas ture Pes ts 1 08 Swnmary 109 THE PURPOSIVE SURVEY Introduction 1 1 2 5.2 5 . 2 . 1 5.2.2 5.2.3 5.3 5 . 3' 1 5.3.2 5,4 5. '-+. 1 5 . 4.2 5·5 5.5.2 5.6 5 . 6. 1 5.6.2 5.7 CHAPTER 6 6' 1 6.2 6 . 2. 1 6 . 2 . 2 6.2 . 3 6 . 2.4 6.2.5 6.2.6 6.2 . 7 Case Farm A The Development Programme Factors A��e cting Development Conclus ions Case Farm D The Development Plm1 Conclusions Case Farm C The Development Progranune Conc lus i ons Case Farm D The Developr!">ent Programme Con c lus ions Case Farm E - Random Survey Farm I\ umber 20. The Development Programme Conc lusions Swmnary THE FEASIBILITY OF FUTurt.E DEVELOPHEST FOR REPHESESTATIVE F.t-'JU'I F. Introduction Development Progra1mne Asswnpti ons Pri ces Cos ts Taxation Lives tock S tandard Values P ersonal Exemptions L ife Insurance Premiums Development Exemptions Page 11 2 11 3 1 1 6 1 1 6 1 1 7 1 1 7 11 9 1 20 1 21 124 125 126 127 1 28 1 28 1 31 1 31 134 135 135 136 137 139 139 139 139 6.2.8 6.3 6. 3 • . , 6.3.2 6. 4 6. 4. 1 6. 4.2 6. 4.3 P ers onal Draw-ings Representative Farm F Description o� the Farm Devel opment PrograJJIDle One Financ i al Evaluati on Base Year Data Produc t i on Data The PI1.ysical Deve lopment Years P age 140 1 40 1 5 1 6.�-3, 1 The Debt Free Situation 156 1 58 1 59 159 6, 4. 3t 2 The In�luence o� Farm Indebtednes s 1 63 6,4,4 The P o s t Development Si tuation 1 65 6. 4.5 The Pro�itabil i ty o� the D evelopment Progranwe 1 65 6.4.5, 1 Evaluat i on Under Conditi on A 1 67 6. L�.5. 2 Evaluat i on Under Condition B 6.L�.6 6.4. 7 6. 5 6. 6 6. 6. 1 6. 6. 2 6. 6.3 6 . 6.4 6. 6.5 6 . 6 . 6 6.7 6. 8 6. 8. 1 6.8.2 The E��ect o� the Fertiliser Subs idy 172 S mrunary ·1 7 5 Development Progranune T11·o 1 77 Financial Evaluation 1 8 1 Produc t i on Data 18 1 Tlle Physical Development Years 182 The P o s t Development Situat i on 184 The Pro�i tabil i ty o� the Development Programme 1 86 The Ef�ect o� the Fertiliser Subsi dy 186 Summary 187 Devel opment Progran®e Thre e 189 Financial Evaluati on 192 Production Data 192 The Phys ical Development Years 1 95 6.8.3 6.8.4 6.8.5 6.8.6 CHAPTEH. 7 7-3 7.4 7. 4. 1 7.4.2 7.4.3 7.4.4 7.4.5 7.4.6 7.4.7 7-5 7.6 Page The P o s t Deve l opment Situation 196 The Profitability o:f the Development Program e 198 The Effect of the Fertiliser Subsidy 200 Swmnary 200 Conclusion 201 THE FK�.SIDILITY OF FUTuRE DEVELOP:l-JEXT FOR REPRESEXTATIVE FARN G AND REPRESEX1:A.TIVE FAf0I A. Representative Farm G 202 Description of the Fa:cm 202 The Development Programme 204 Financ ial Eva .lua tion 207 Base Year Data 207 Production Da-ta 211 The Physical Development Years 211 The Post Development Situation 214 The Profitab ility of the Development Progranm1e 21 !.j. The E:ffec t of the Fertiliser Subsidy 217 Sununary 21 7 Representative Farm A 218 The Development Pr ogramme 219 Financial Evaluation 221 Base Year Data 221 Pr oduction Data 223 The Physi cal D evelopment Year s 224 The P o s t D evelopment S ituation 225 The Pr ofitabil i ty of the Development Pr ogramm e 227 The Effect o f the Fer tiliser Subs idy 229 Swmnary 229 7.8 CHAPTER 8 8 • . 1 8.2 '8. 2. 1 8.2.2 8.3 8' 3' 1 8.3.2 8,J,3 8 . l.j. 8.5 8,6 Page Conclusions 230 TilE POTENTIAL FOR, AND J.i'EASIBILITY OF 1 INCREASED PRO DUCTI ON IN THE HOROivHENUA AREA . • Introduction 232 Potential Stockine; Rates on IIorowhenua Hill Country. 232 Potential Increases in Stock Nwnbers 235 Inputs Required to Achieve Production Increases 236 The Feasibility of Increasing Production. 240 Undeveloped Hill C oru1. try Units 24 ·1 The Small Hill Country Property 242 The 1Adequate Income' Farms The Likelihood of Potential Production Increases244 Being Achieved. The Alternatives to Development Conclusion GLOSSARY OF TEIDIS APPE.l'\DICES A Letter Sent to Survey Fetrmcrs B BreedinG Co1v Heconcilio.tion l>rograrn C A :-.lethod of Reducing tl1e Bo.se Year Post Tax Cash Surplus in Gardncr1s Proc;ram. 24 8 D Gross i'largins For Breeding· El,·es and Breeding Cm,·s on Horowhenua HiLL Country. E The Cost of Clearing Weeds on the Horowhenua Hill Cow1. try. F The Present Value Measure of Profitability G Supplementary Evaluation Data for Representative Farm F. H Supplementary Evaluation Data for Representative Farm G, I Supplementary Evaluation D ata for Representative Farm Ao BIBLIOGRAPHY Table 2. 1 4. 1 4. 2 4 . J 4 . 4 4 . 5 4 . 6 4 . 7 l.j . • 8 4 . 9 4 . 1 0 5 . 1 5 . 2 5.J 5 . 4 5 . 5 5 . 6 5 . 7 5 . 8 5 . 9 6. 1 LIST OF TABLES Climatic Data For T110 Haj or T o,,·ns in the Sur·v-ey Area. Size and Topography of Random Farms Land Use on Random Surv ey Farms Tenure and Responsibility i' or Hanagement of Random Survey Farms. Age Distribution of Survey Farmers Conversion Coefficients For Sto ck Wintered Breeding Stook on Random Survey Farms 3 1 . J. 6 9 Sto cking Rates on Random Survey Farms 3 1 . 6 . 69 Stock Performance on Random Farms Recent Produc t i on Increas es on Random Survey Farms. Page 28 66 68 70 70 75 ?6 78 80 Surv ey Farms 1d th Reg-ular Topdressing 1 00 Programmes, C as e Farm A - Land Development Progranun e and 1 1 4 St ocking Rate Increase . C as e Farm B - Development C o s t o f Tauhinu Land 1 1 8 Case Farm B - Total Development C o s t 1 '1 9 Cas e Farm C - Stock Increases Achieved by 1 22 S ubdivis i on . C a s e Farm C - Land D evelopment Programme and 1 2J St ocking Rate Increas es . C as e Farm D - Increas es in Stocking Rate 1 28 Asso ciated wi th Development . C as e Farm E - Land Development and Sto cking 1 29 Rate . Ca s e Farm E - The Effe cts of Doubling Stocking 1 JO Rate on Sto ck Performance . C as e Farm E - Stock P erformance After Stocking 1 JO Rate Increas es . P ri ce As sumptions 1 J 8 Table 6.2 6.3 6, L� 6.5 6,6 6.7 6,8 6.9 6. 1 0 6, 1 1 6. 1 2 6. 13 6, 1 L� 6. 15 6.16 6, 1 7 6. 1 8 6.19 6.20 6, 2 1 6.22 6.23 6.24 Page Livestock Standard Values 140 Repres en ta ti ve Farm F - Deve1opment Progranune 149 One. Programme One - Stock Reconci1iation 1 50 Stock Performance Data 152 Programme One - Deve1opment Costs 1 53 Interest and Principa1 Repayments 155 Programme One - J3as e Year Data 1 57 Progranm1e One - Pr<···U.ction Data 1 60 PrograJru11e One - Financial Data for the Debt 1 62 Free Situation. Programme One - The Effect of' Farm Indebtedness 161+ on Overdraft Requirements During Development. Programme One - Post Development Sunnnary 165 Program e.One - Prof'itabi1ity Under Condition A 168 Programme One - Prof'itability Under Condition B 169 Programme One - The Ef'f'ect of' the Ferti1iser 173 Subsidy on Aru1.ual Overdraft Requirements, Programme One - The Ef'f'oct of the Fertiliser 176 Subsidy on the Profitability of' Development. Repres enta ti ve Farm F - Development Prograrmne 1 80 1'1\TQ < Progranune T'w - Stack Reconci1ia tion 1 81 Development Costs 1 82 Prograrmne Two - Production Data 1 83 Prograrmne Two - F inancial Data for the Debt 184 Free Situation. Programme Two - The Effec t of' Farm Indebtedness 1 85 on Overdraft R equirements During Development . Programme T1vo - P o s t Development Sununary 185 Programme T1vo - Profitabil i ty Under C ondition A 1 87 Table 6 . 25 6 . 26 6 . 27 6. 28 6.29 6.JO 6' 31 6 . 32 6.33 6. Jli. Page Programme T\w - Profi tabili ty Under Condition B 1 88 Reprcsentati...-c Farm F - Development Programme 192 Three. Progran®e Three - Stock Reconciliation 193 ProG'rarnme Three - Development Costs 1 93 ProGramme Three - Production Dvere c ons idered . 1 .3 Thesis Guide This section des cribes the content of the remaining 20 chapters in the thesis. The Horo1vhenua hill country environ- ment is des cribed in chapter two. Also contained in this chapter is a revie1,� of past hill country studies an.d a dis-· cuss ion on methods of analysin� the profitability of development. Chapter tlu�ee is concerned ·h'i th procedures us0d in the study , Fanu surveys are briefly revi ewed and the two surveys UJ.1.dertakc3n by the author described. This is followed by an outline of the place of representative farms as a research teclmique, The chapter concludes wi tll a brief' description o f Garc1ner1 s computerised evaluation program, This program 1-:as used by the author to financially evaluate the development progra�nes devised for the representative farms. Information gathered in the random survey is contained in chapter :four. This information includes details of manage- ment practices as well as obj ective data, A description of development programmes undertaken by survey farmers can be found in chapter five, Chapters six and seven describe and evaluate development prograJmnes devised for the representative farms, The profitability of the prograJnmes is analysed under tw·o methods of financing development. The potential for, m1.d the feasibility of increasing production on Horowhenua hill country farms is analysed in chapter eight, Potential sto cking rates are determined together with the inputs required to obtain this potential, 2 1 The l ikelihood of s ignificant production increase s o ccurring in the near future i s als o examined . The chapter c oncludes lvith a dis cus s i on on s ome of the alternatives to hill country development . Definitions of conunon farm t erms are c ontained in a glo s sary . Throughout the thesis references to bibliography are made thus (o) lvhile foo tnotes are indicated thus . ( o ) CHAPTER T1W T'H 8 J I O ROII'IJ E \: UA DI STRICT .\ XD I IT LL C OlT.\TRY DE\TELOP'IE�T STUDlLS 2 . 1 Introduction The ini t i <:-:t l part of thi s chapt er out lines backgrow1.d 22 information on the Horo,,·henua hi l l c ountry . This i s fol l owed by a brief review o.f p a s t hill cow1try studie s and a discus s ion on methods o f analys ing deve lopment progranunes . The chapter conc ludes with an outline of the approach used in thi s s tudy . 2 . 2 Location The Hor0i..-l1.enua ( 1 ) distric t i s a narrm1' coastal area on the ·wes t coast o:f the s outhern part of the Korth Is land. The dis trict extend s from Shannon in the north to Paekakariki in the s outh ; a dis tance o f approximate ly 45 miles . At Paekakariki t h e hills ris e sharply from the coast and the dis trict narroKs to a point , The ea s t ern boundary of the distri ct is for:uwd by the Tararua ranges iihile to the ,,- est the Tasman s e a create s a natural boundary , In the north the Hanmva tu river divides the region f:':"'om the l'-lana,,·atu district , The lo cation of the region in relation to the rest of the K orth Island is shoKn. in figure 2 . 1 . 2 . 3 P hys i c a l F' ea tures ( 1) Horowhenua is a Haori name ivhich means 1 1 the great land- slide . " A c c ording to Haori l egend the area from Levin to the Ohau river was a gravel deposit . It \vas a fan of detritus which had the appearance of an enormous landslide from the Tararuas. Figure 2 . 1 Location o f the Survey Area Auckland Paekakariki if ellington North I s land of New Zealand Legend � I Survey area 23 2 . 3 . 1 ]'apograph;: A s indicated in figure 2 . 2 five ma j or landforms c an be i dentifi e d in the survey area , The s e are the coas tal s and dw1es , t he c entral plain , the clay loam terra c e s , the greywacke hill c ountry and the range s c overed in nat ive bus h . The land forms are dis s e ct e d by four rivers . To the north the Hana1va tu rive r flows out to s e a a t Foxton . The Ohat.l , 0 taJci and liaikanae rivers have their heacl11a ters in the Tararua ranges and flow w e s tward to the T a s man S ea . Thes e three rivers and thei r as s o c i a t e d valley s divide the hill country and t erra c e s into four blocks . The c ontour o f these blocks varies from eas y a n d rolling to s t eep and broken . I n e arly years broad l eaved-podocarp fore s t s were predom- inate . Thes e fores t s m erge d into B e e ch fore s t a t 1 , 0 00 fe e t above s ea leve l and into l oh·land s hrubs and swampland vegeta- t ion n e a r the coas t . Today mos t of the land below 1 , 200 feet has b e en c leared and replan t e d in pas ture . 2 . 3 . 2 S o i 1 T}..:.J2 e � ( 2 ) The hill cow1try soils have b e en largely derived from greywacke and some ash depos i t s , The s oils c an be divi ded in- to two maj or types , vi z the s oils of the upl ands and the s oils of the hi llv and s teeplands . The upland s o ils o ccur on flat to undulating terraces and on rolling and hilly lands with an annual rainfall of 32 to 45 inches . Nutrients are c ontinually being lost from these soils ( 2 ) Information appearing in this section was obtained from reference ( 2 ) . Figure 2 . 2 Haj o r Landf'orms 0 ±� The S urvey Area Hanawatu River Legend Survey Boundary Coastal sand and sandy loam S ilt loams and s tony s ilt loamt Terrac e country ( c lay loams ) Hill c ountry ( Grey'\.vacke ) Ranges w·i th native bush ei ther by erosi on or by l ea ching . Thes e l o s s e s are however , partly c o unter-balanced by the Keathering and recirculation of' nut r i en t s by p l an t s cu1.d s o i l organisms , S o i l s of t he hillv and s t o e p l and s are generally free d:rainine; s oils . Differen ce s are chiefly r e l a t e d to the pareD t rock and to the climate . The upland s o il s , lihich are formed from greyKacke , are no table :for their contribution to succ e s s- ive zones of land . Thi s pa t tern i s due t o the influence of c lima � � on s o i l fonnation . There i s a trans i tion from a mild and sub-hwnid climate at the c oas t t o a c ooler and wet t er c l imate inlcu1d . A s s o ciat ed wi th this i s a progres s ive de creas e in b o th the c lay c ont e n t and the min eral nutri ents of the s o i l s . Thi s oc curs as a result of s lower w e a the r ing and greater l eaching . The :foll owing subs e c t i on l i s ts and brie f'ly di s cus s es the chara c teri s ti c s of' the hi l l c ountry s o i l types . 2 . J . 2 , 1 �Ja j n S o i l Types_ ( J ) ( i ) B l emon t and R a m i h a ::: o i ls ( JJc ) Thes e s o ils are :form e d on mi x e d greyKacke l oe s s and ash depo s i t s beneath the c o o l er and wetter c limate of the uplan ds . Drainage varies from s lightly res tric t ed t o unimpeded . A continual l o s s of nutrients o c curs under the moderate rainfall . The s oi l s are brO\\rn friable s i l ty or sandy loams and they have a low natural fertility . Applications of phosphorous , calcium and molybdenum are required to maintain productive pas tures . ( J ) The s o i l reference numbers quoted e . g . ( JJo ) are s tandard for New Zealand s o i l maps , 25 The as s ociated Renata s oils are very s trongly leached and their profiles show dis t inct c lay coatings on the subsoil and the formation of a thin iron pan . Thi s i s indicative of weak podzolisation . Thes e s o i ls are lo cated in the hill c ountry region between Paekakariki and W aikanae . ( i i ) Makara - P ahoa s o ils ( J5a ) These s o i ls were developed on s teep s lopes under mull formi� � broad leaved podocarp fore s ts. The s o il s are more bro\vn and friable than the Paramata s o ils and are only moder- ately leached . The rainfall i s abs orbed evenly and erosion under grass land is l imit ed to a few s lips s ituated above s e epage s i tes . 1>li th phosphate , l ime and molybdenum top- dres sing the s oi ls will maintain r eas onable quali ty pas tures . This is the main s o i l type of the hill country region and extends from Paekakariki to Shannon . ( i i i ) Ruahine - Rimutuka s oils ( a ) Ruahine S oils ( 1 23 ) Beneath the native rimu, the beech or kamaki fores t , the surface cons is ted of two to three inches of reddi sh brmvn raw h�mus . This organic s tore o f fertility was maintained under forest but rapidly eroded when the land was c leared for pas toral farming . The ero s i on expos ed a s oil which was deficient in many plant nutrient s . Frequent topdress ing with phosphate and lime i s required t o maintain pas ture s . _ I f this i s not done ferns and manuka rapidly invade the pas tures . These s oils are well suited t o fores try . ( b ) Rimutuka S oi l s ( 1 24 ) Locate d above 1 , 500 fee t thes e s o i ls consi s t o f s trongly Figure 2 . 3 Ohau River O taki River Horowhenua Hill C ountry S oil Types / Y.. 1 .... '{. i- i 1. '1- y..._ 'f.. ! - - - - - - - - - . . .. . . • . . . � \ \ Legend Survey Boundary Belmont and Ramiha s oi l s Levin and Ki1vi tea s ilt loam Makara-Pahoa s oils Ruahine s o i ls Rimutuka s oils S ource : S o i l Bureau D . S .I . R o acid loams 1\'i th a thick c overing· of humus . 26 The ferti li ty i s very low and they are be s t retained for pro tection f'p r e s t t o cons erve wat er supplies . ( iv ) L ev i n a n d K i wi t i e a S i l t L o a m ( 6 6c ) Hany hill c oru"ltry farms have areas of flat land , These areas c ons is t of this s o i l type which is an examp l e o :f the v e l l m·;- b r o ,,-n e a r t h s a nd in t e rgra d e s . The s e s oils ha ye been formed from mixed gre}n;,·a cke ill"ld volcanic ash s ediments m1 d e r a mild huJnid c .lima te . They are moderately l ea ched and Khe:n topdre s s ed ,,- i th phosphate : lime and mo lybdern .. m1 they wi l l main­ tain highly productive pas tures , The di s tribution of the vari ous hill coru"ltry s oil typ e s i s s ho1·:n in figLl � an R a i n f'a l l Ten� i:'-2.£.£ -( incl1.cS} H o u rs 0 f' �--------- --·------ - ---- r------ ----- r----- -·- ----,..- Levin J anuary 6 2 4 . 4 ( 2 . 8 ) 2 1 9 1 9 6 P a r a p a r aumu Kot es - 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . F e brua ry 6 1 March 60 April 54 ?-lo.y 5 2 J1111.e 4 5 J u ly 45 Augus t 4 8 S e p t e mb e r 54· O c tober 5 2 Kovemb e r De c emb e r J anuary Februe: . ni cally feas ible . Hence devel opment progrc::umne s "LU1.cle r- taken in i. lle pas t a r e "Lmli l -.e ly to be repli cated in the future , 2 . 1 0 The G e n e ra l i s e d }Iodel The pro:fi tabili ty of hill c ountry de"\·e lopment can be examine d by formulat ing a generali s ed model o f a development programme . ( 2 1 ) The s ens i tivity of pro:fi ts t o changes in one or more variable s ( 22 ) can then be studied . This type of ( 20 ) ( 2 1 ) ( 22 ) For example Cart1vright ( 9. ) and Cronin ( 1 1 ) . That is a development programme 1vhi ch 1vi th s light modification could be applied to a number of farms . Thes e variables include price forecasts , costs , spe ed of development, interest rate, and degree of equity . 40 analys i s is bas i cally a :financial evaluation of one devel op- ment p r o g r amme , S u c h o. model mus t be able t o take into acc ount the phy s i cal chance s ma d e to th.e deve l o pment programme Khen important variables a l t e r . In theory the generali s ed mode l i s us eful in indi cat ing the range over whi ch vari able s caa a l t er ,,, i thout the programme bec oming w1.profi tabl e . I t does no t h o w e v e r inJ i cat e in prac t ical t e rms ho•·: f'armers should alter development t o o ffs e t the � � fe c t s of the s e changes o n the pro :f i tabil ity o f deve lop- men t . From a f'armers po int o f' vi el\" thi s i s an important aspec t of d evelopment plannint;; . F a rm e r s are int ere s t ed in the profi tabi l i ty o f future devel opment . For thi s r e a s on the author be l i eve s an ex ante analy s i s o :f deve lopuent programmes . ( 23 ) l S n e c es s a ry . Khile the future c c:mnot b e predi cted accura t e ly fon,·ard budge ting does make the bes t us e of pre s ent k.no,, l edge . C ons equently i t aids in de termining the mo s t effici ent us e o f res ourc es . I t i s hm,·ever , impo s s ible to furni sh a blueprint for hill cot.mtry deve lopment . The s pe ed and the direc tion of the developmen t is de te rmined by the individual farm s i tuation . Most o f the important d e c i s i ons concerning development involve ( 23 ) The development prograrrune so analysed is one whi ch i s feas ible under the exi s t ing farm s i tuation . Analys i s of pas t deve lopment programmes us ing pro j e cted costs and pric es should not be used �o determine whether future development wil l be profitable . The principles of pas t development programmes e . g . st ock increas es , may be appli cable to the future but it is unlikely that the actual develop�ent programme i t s e lf i s applicable under pres ent price s tructures . 4 1 change . This leads to w·1c o rtainty about fu ture events and t o uncertainty about the impa ct of events on a :feas ible cleYclop- men t pro granm1e • Despi te the uncertain-Ly , cle c j s i ons have t o b e made now about deve lopment to be w1.d ertakcn in the future . Us ing pre s ent knowledge a developlllent plan can be formulated to achi eve s ome future goal . As the plan i s impl emented throug-h- out t ime , addi ti onaJ. information 1dl l bec ome availabl e . This information 1dll inevi tably mean , in a dyn<:nni c agriculture , modification.s ·e o the basi c pla...YJ. . Thus by the time the r;oai 24 ) i s reached the c ompl e t ed progranuue may be s ig11.i fic a.ntly diff'erent from the original plan , As a result a detailed :financial evaluation of profi t abi l i t·y i s likely to be of' academic interes t on ly . The ma j or dif'ficulty 1d th an �� t e analy s i s is ho11 to inc orporate the e:f:fe ct of changing pro duc t pric es in the analysi s . S everal problenlli are involved. The first problem i s a s s o c iated 1dth the .!_iming of the s e price changes. Thes e changes can o c cur a t any po int in a development progrannne and the remedial action taken will vary according to the point at 1·:hich the change occurs. ( 25 ) The extent of the price changes a lso influences the acti on taken. It is however , difficult to accurately forecast e ither ( 2L� ) Narked changes in variables affecting development may result in the completed goal being . different to the proposed goal before deve lopment. ( 25 ) A price fall in the year immediately after the imp lemen­ tation of the deve lopment programme is l ikely to have a greater effect than a price fall at a p o int where development is generating additional profits . 4 2 the extent o f , o r the timing of pri c e changes . I f accurate forecas t s were pos s ible there s till remains the que s tion of ·'i'!hat a c tion the farmer 11-i l l take . Individual farmers vary i n their managerial abi lity ( 26 ) and hence in the a l t e ra t i ons they 1vill make to devel opment p l cm ..s unde r changing c onditions . Thus the effe ct of pri c e changes can be analy s ed in a �=!:!l.!.§lt :i.v� s ense but no t in a pos i t ive s ens e . Today , becaus e o f the lUlccrtainty about the effe ct of future price falls on de-.-elopment , farmers may s till refra in from unde rtaking ..:._�nt� proc;rammes i s there:fore an e s s ential requirement . I n r c a l i ty the plam1.ing of' future development progro.mmes inY o lvcs de tailed planning :for the ini tial years and broad pl a.Ju1.ing f o r the latter y ears . As price s and teclLno logy chunge so mus t the deYe lopment progro.nm1e if the e f fe c t s of non benefi cial ch<.1nges ( 29 ) are to be minimi s ed and benef'icial ( JO ) changes maximis e d . The s e changes l!lay no t re sul t in the opti.111i s at i on of' profits . They wi l l , however , ensure that profi ts 1d l l b e greater t han tho s e that Koul d occur in the abs ence of' r e vi s i o n . From a financing po int of v i ew l ending ins titution s a re likely t o ha,_-e greater confidence in development 1d1.i ch is arn1.ually revi s ed and evaluated . They may als o b e m o r e wi lling to provide a d d i t i on a l capi tal if thi s i s required . 2 . 1 2 S un mJa rY __ ___,__ The f o l l owing points have emerged from the review of hi l l country s tudies and from the methods of' analys ing development ( 28 ) This method of s e l e c ting the development plan to be rmdertaken is , in theory , s imilar to the s election me thod o f a profit motivated farmer . Frequently however , sub­ optimal inves tment decis ions are made be caus e farmers are lllllvilling or lliJ.abJ_e to inves t on a s cale which will earn the optimwn return . ( 29 ) Non beneficial changes l\rould include falling product prices and advers e c limatic c onditions e . g . drought . ( 30 ) Increas es in product prices and a technology change resulting in higher productivity are examples of benefic ial changes . programmes : - ( i ) Hil l c ountry development s t ud i e s hn.Y e been publ i shed on ly recent ly . ( i i ) ( i i i ) ( i v ) P r e d i c t i o n s a b o t, t the profi tahi l i ty o f f1 t ture dev e l o p tnont ha v e r.:1ne;ed f' r o m : " ma rgin a l ly pro .r i t ab l e n ( I\ r i ght 1 96 3 ) t o " development 1\· ould be profi table over ,,· ide pri c e ranges " ( Cart� right 1 9 67 ) Bo tl-1 the cas e s t udy app roa ch aud the gener a l i s ed model have been us ed by r e � earch '' orkers in d e t ermining t h e p r o fi t a b i l i ty of deve l opment p l a n s . The ca s e s tucly npproach involves the us e o f an ex p o 3 t e or an ex ant e analy s i s . ( v ) There a r e probl ems invo lved i n u s in� both type s o f ( vi ) ( vii ) a n a l y s e s . I f an e x p � s t e analy s i s i s us ed the problem i s i n cie c iding wha t c os ts and pri c es t o us e . \{ i th e x a n t e ana l y s es the probl ems revo lve arow1.d uncertain k.nm,· l edge of the future . The ma gn i tude o f these problems are increased with c ombined ex po s t e and ex ant e analy s e s . Us e o f a general i s ed development model i s in theory us ef'ul in indicating the range over which pri ces can alter without c aus ing the development programme to be unprofi table . The problem is that i t do es not indi cate how farmers should alt er their deve lopment plans in respons e to the s e changes . ( v i i i ) Tlle au t h o r has us e d c on s t a n t p r i c e s and c o s t s i n an e x cH1 te s t u d y o i' J l o r o �d w n u <.t h i l l c o un t r)' deve l o p m <:. n t . 4 6 C HA P TER THH EE PH O C EDl' R ES GSED The s tudy o r t he p r o :f i t a b i l i t y o :f f'ut "Urc Hormdwnua hi l l c o un t r y deve l opment in,·o lYed t h e us e of f a r m surveys , r e p r e s c n t a t i Y c :farms and a c o m p u t e r i s e d :f i n a n c i a l eva luat i on progralll . The :farm surveys enabl ed e s s e n t i a l i n :f o rm a t i o n t o b e c o l l e c t e d on such aspe c t s as manac;emcnt pra c t i c e s and problems 1 produ c tive p ,:;rf'ormance an d hil l c o w1.try deve l opment t echniques . F eas ibl e devel opment programmes ( 1 ) '''ere t h en formulated :for f a r m s repre s entat ive o:f hi l l c ow1. try s he ep :fa r m s in t 1 t e r e g i :J Jt . Later the :financial i mp l i c a t i ons of t h e s e programmes K c r e eva l ua t e d us ing Gardner 1 s c omputeri s e d evaluc:t t i on program . ( 2 ) Thi s chap t er begins 1·: i th a brief summary of :farm surveys . The surveys w1dertaken by the author a r e then des cribed and t h e p l a c e o :f repre s en t a t i ve farms as a res earc h t e c lu1. i q u e di s cus s ed , The chapter c onc ludes 1vi th an out line of Gardn e r ' s program a n d a comm ent on s ome limi t ati ons that be c sune a p p a r e n ·t Khi J .e us i ng the progrn.m . J . 2 F arm S urveys Farm surveys are one form of f'arm management res earch and involve the c ol lec t i on and analys is of farm data . They may ( 1 ) \l e refer to a computer " program" but a development "programme " . ( 2 ) This program was s lightly modified t o include data from a cattle breeding program . devi s ed by the author . This program Kas devi s ed becaus e Gardner ' s program did not allow for a cat t l e bre eding policy . The program i s outlined in appendix B . 47 form the bas is for s tudying particul a r farm prac ti ce s , for de termininc; impedimc;nt s t o inc rea s e d produc t i on an d for evaluating n e \•i t e chllol ot;)' in fa.rming . C andl c r e mphas i s e d the importance o f farm s urvey s 1d-1 en he s t o t cd "Farm surveys may be tb e be s t , inde e d t h e only \ c a y of lll c o l l e c t ing informat ion on the suc c e s s of ne1-.: pr2.c t i c e s at t11 e farm level . " As a r e s e a r c h t e c�1ique s urveys have be en us ed s ince the begimdng of t h e c entury . ( J ) The surveys carried out by early ,,- o rk e r s \ :E:: re of' t ,,-o types v i z . des cr iyt i v e o r cnum c r a t i Y e The c h a ra c t e r i s - tics of thes e type s o f surveys are bri e fly outl ined in the fo l lowing subs ection s . ( lj ) J . 2 . 1 pes cr�pt i ve or E n um c r a t i , - e S n r,rey s The maj ority of farm s u r v e y s ha ve be en of this s o rt . Such surYey s are de s i gned t o find out about farms and farmers , They cons i s t e s s entially o f the c olle c t i on of farm rec ords e i ther by mai l quc s t i oru1.aires or by farm vis i ts . The informat i on required i s rigidly defined by means of a s e t ques tionna ir e . The main us e o f thes e surveys i s probably t o provide de s criptive informat i on on farming , They can als o indicate where further de tail ed res earch .!!.� be required . J . 2 . 2 Interview or Management Surveys This type of survey is bas ically a means of tes ting a ( J ) A comprehens ive revi e1v of these early surveys can be found in ( 1 J ) , ( 4 ) For a dis cus s i on of the limitations of these types of surveys the reader is referred to ( 1 4 ) . 48 hypothes i s . ( 5 ) I t involves the collect ion o f both sur�j ec tive ( 6 ) and ob j e c t ive ( ? ) data . Candlor ( 1 5 ) h a s formally defined man a g ement s u r v (� y s a s 1 1 A s crie s of intervi e 11'S wi t h farmers to ci ve informati on about s ome one management prac ti ce . 1 1 During the interview dis c us s i on clsually ranges from topic to topi c . A s e t ques t ionnaire i s not us ed but in s ome ins tances intervi ewers may us e a s chedule o r l i s t of topics . This ac t s as an aid to remembering the p o ints they wi sh t o dis cus s . A hic;h d e gr e e o f intervie1iing skill and agri cu l tural t r a i ning i s neede d for the s e surveys becaus e of the s ub j ect ive nature of muc h of the data . Hanagement surveys o re l ikely to improve the understanding of' differences in farming performance and henc e p rov i de n means of formula ting us e fu l reconmwnda tions for farmers . Three types of management surveys have been identified by Candler ( 1 6 ) and the s e differ only in their ob j e c tive . Bri efly they are : - ( i ) R e s e ar c h o r Pre-re lease surveys Thes e are de s igned to de termine whe ther there i s likely t o b e a place :for a ne1v produc t o r for a new management prac -t ice . They involve a survey to determine current management practices follo1ved by an analy s i s of a management ( 5 ) For example more c ows and more fertil i s er mean greater profit s . ( 6 ) This involves information on such aspects as intentions , motivations , expec tations and at t itudes . ( 7 ) Data of this s ort i s specific data such as fertili s er usage and number of acres . s tock numbers , sys tem which inc ludes the new pra c t i c e o r pro duc t . From this an es t imate of the l ike ly proi'i tabi lity o f' the neK pra c t i c e o r produc t can be o b t a in e d , ( B ) ( i i ) P o s t --R e l e a s r.· o r Early A do J2t i on S u:c_� This type of' survey i s des igne d to obtain in:formation on farmers experienc e s wi th a new managc1ae n t prac t i c e , To be us eful such a survey n e eds to be carri ed out b e fo r e the bulk of farmers have changed t o th e new prac t i c e . The aim i s t o e s t ab i i s h the profi tability o f' the new pract i c e and t o d e fine the c ond i tions nece s s ary for suc c e s s , The t i minG and w i d e publication of r e s ul t s are two important a spects o f this t y p e of survey . An early adoption survey h<'l s b e en carri e d out by Grahame ( 1 9 ) , ( ii i ) K on A do p t i o n o r D e ll.n v i o ur i .:; t S u_rYeY s ----'--'-"--'--'-....;;.·-'-------....;.:_..._;. ________ - In thi s t y p e o f survey the res earch Korker ,,- a n t s t o find out Khy s ome farmers a r e refraining from ado p t ing a n e w pra c t ic e o r product , S 1.<.ch surveys involv 0 cli fficu..l t i e s o:f obtaining t h e real reas ons for nonadoption ( 9 ) and in che ckine; for c ons i s t ency of repl i e s . ( 1 o ) The reliability and value of the resul ts obtained from interview surveys depend largely upon the training and intervi ewing skill of the res earch worker . This point has ( 8 ) The results of such analyse s depend largely upon the assumptions made . P re-releas e surveys have been carried out by Frampton ( 1 7 ) and 1vi lliams ( 1 8 ) , (9 ) N o farmer i s likely t o admit t o a lack o f drive or to ignoranc e . ( 1 0 ) Cronin ' s ( 1 1 ) s tudy of the fact ors preventing high production on s ome dairy farms in the Rangitaiki P lains deals with this point in some de tail . been made by S chapper ( 1 4 ) who s tated 1 1 • a hich deg-re e o f intervi e1d.ng- s k i l l an cl apprec ia t i on o f int e rvi ewing as a s c i e nt ifi c proc edure are pre- 1.'equi s i te 1 s for re liable r e s u.l t s . 1 1 50 T,,-o surveys were w1. d e r t aken , Th e ini tial s urvey in¥o lv e d a r a n d o m s u r ,: e y of hi l .l c ountry she ep J'arms in o rder to ( i ) obtain phys i c al and pro duc tion da t a ( i i ) d e f ine ma.n. a e;emen t prac tice s 8. n cl. hence a management s ys t em typi cal of di s trict prac t i c e s ( i i i ) de t .. ermine a t t i tu d e s o :f farm e r s t o dcvelo rJmcn t ( iv ) pinpoint fac t ors hindering or preventing development . The purpo s i ve s u r Y c y '·: a s undertaken in order t o :::. t udy development me thods currently be ing- us ed b-y p r o gr e s �; i vc hill c ountry she ep farm e r s . This s urvey 11· a s c onduc ted on a cas e farm ba s i s . Ea c h farm and farm e r 1va s treated a s <.u1. cn·t i ty a n d c onc lus ions Ke r e dra1·.11. on the bas is of thi s and r w t f r o m aggregated d a t a . J , J . l The sur,·ey area included all the hill c ow1.try be t>Veer.. Shannon in the north and P a ekaka r i k i in the s outh . The t o tal area of approximately 70 , 000 acres r e p r e s e n t s a small portion of the hard hi ll cow1.try of the North I s land . Such hill country has frequently be en referred to as s e cond c las s hill country . ( 1 l ) J . J . 2 Identification of S urvey F a rms With the as s is tance of Mr R o Gill ( 1 2 ) all she ep farms in the survey area were identified . Of the s e 70 were c las s ifie d a s h i l l c ountry sheep un i t s ( ·t J ) including 1 4 Khos e O'i\"Il e r s d o r i v e cl in c o m e i'r01:1 o t h (' J.' s ource s , ( 'i 4- ) The s e l a t t e r propert i e s �ere inc luded in t h e random survey for t�o r e a s o n s : they formed a. s i gn i :f i c an t percentage ( 20'% ) of the s heep f·a rms in th e s u.rvey a r r:) a and p hy .'3 i c a l a n d mana g e m e n t informa ti on only � a s required from the survey . I t wa s thought that s i gnifi cantly different t o thos e us e d on s elf- c ontained she ep , 'I r: ) uni ts . '- :.J I d e n tifica ti on o f purpos i ve ::: urvey :f a rms ·Kas more dif:fi cul t . A s there ha d been li t t l e ad\ris o ry c ontact with hi ll c ountry s h o c p f' a rm e r s , tho s e und e :c takin[;· deve lopment ,,- a rk 1·;ere gen e ra l ly unJm o \,Tl t o l o cal advi s ors . For thi s re a s on as s i s t a n c e ,,rn s obtained :f r o m acc owrtants , s t o c k :firms and p r o du c e m e r c 1l.an ts in i clen tifying :fa rme rs ,,-ho had or Ke r e , carryinc; out hi l l c ow1 try development . S ome o f the s e farmers i•; erc l a t e r e x c lud e d f r o m the surv e: y be caus e of e ither an ( 1 1 ) ( 1 2 ) ( 1 3 ) ( 1 4 ) ( 1 5 ) Th i s h•J s been de i'ined by the 7'\ e,,- Zea land }I e a t and 1v o o l Bonrd 1 s E c onomi c S ervic e a. s hill c ountry carrying approxima t e ly two she ep per acre plus c a t t l e ( approxi- mately one beas t to s even or eight she ep ) . Wool provides s ome 40 per cent of the revenue and the balance is derived in about equal proportions :from the s ale of s t ore sheep and s t ore cattl e . Live s t o ck Instructor :for the Department of Agriculture in Levin . For the purpo s e of the s tudy a hi ll co1.mtry prop erty was defined as a :farm with 60 per cent of its area s te ep and unploughabl e . Thes e s ources inc luded t own. milk products , agricultural contrac ting , opo s sum trapping and shearing . The results of the random survey proved this assumption t o be c orrec t . unsys tcmat i c approach to deve lopment or unsui table records . J , J , J S e l e c t i on o:f S urvc·': F a r m s ----·· ·--·······--------·--"------ 5 2 Twenty thre e :farms ( l G ) were s el e c te d for the random s urvey in the :follm·.·ine; l ! lar.ner : - ( � ) \ .L numbers Kere a s s i gn e d rm1clomly to the hi ll c rnu:J.try s he e p :f arms ( i i ) nwnbered di s cs c orre sponding t o individual :farm nwnbers were then placed in a barrel ( iii ) a di s c w<::t s dx-m,·n :from the b i.l r r e l a :f t e r i t had been revolved , The :farms s e l e c t ed inc luded five Khich derived in c ome from s ourc e s o ther than sheep farming , Initially s e ven :farms we r e s e l e c t ed as b e ine; s ui t ab l e f o r t h e purpo.s ive survey , T�-.·o o:f the s e �-: e r e later re j e c t ed becaus e of w1 sui t ab l e rec ords and the abs enc e of any r e a l deve l o pmen t plans , The small numb e r of purpos ive farms i s a ref'lection o :f the abs ence of planned development on thi s area of hill country . ( 1 ? ) The l o c a t i o n o :f the survey farms i s shol\11 in figure J , 1 . J , J , 4 The S u rvey ::.r e t h o cl · F arme r s in tbe Horo1,·henua dis trict 1,·ere firs t made aware of the propo s ed hill cow1try survey b y means of a newspaper artic'le . ( 1 S ) This article was written two months pri or t o the ( 1 6 ) ( 1 7 ) ( 1 8) This s i z e sample of farms was taken in order t o ensure an adequate coverage of hill country farms throughout the survey area . The author i s reas onably certain that n o hill country she ep farm Khich had achieved s ignificant production increases in recent y ears was omit ted from the survey . Levin Chronicle J ovember 1 968. figure 3 . 1 Dis tribution O f Survey Farms . L evin . Hanakau . Otaki . Te Horo . Waikanae Shan on . Legend � Survey Boundary Extent of hill l-L--''-� country • Random survey J---� farms ® C as e farms 5J survey and was followed by a l e t t ar( 1 9 ) outlining the reas on for t h e s u rve y . ( 20 ) S urvey f'arm e r s 1ve r e then telephoned and asked i f' they ·\\"ished t o par t i c i p a t e in the s u rvey . T n m o s t cas es f a r m e r s were pleas ed t o c o-operate and a t�ne and date for a mee t ing 1,"as arrange d , Of the 2 3 random � u rv e y farms 20 1,·ere vi sited . The rea s ons given by the thre e fa rmer s :for non-participa t i on in the survey '''ere - I \ � ) no t interes ted - the fa rme r concerned did no t believe that the survey 1\"as l i k e ly to be benefi c ial to him . ( ii ) ill health - the O l·.n e r o f the farm 1·:as s erious ly i l l in hospital . ( i i i ) the farm h a d j us t been s old - the OI\Ti e r K a s involved in shifting and did no t hav e time to par t i c i p � t e i n the s urvey . After the random S UJ:.'Yey :farms h n d been vis ited the cas e s tudy farmers ''' e r e c ontacted . The pro c edure f'o l l o1ved Kas s imi lar to that empl o)' ed iv"i th the random survey farmers with one exception . A s lightly modified l et t er Kas s ent t o thes e farmers i n whi ch i t was made clear that financial a s ,,,e ll as phy s i cal information ,,,as required , The random survey was carried out in February and Harch of 1 96 9 . The purposive survey commenced in April of the same y ear and 1vas completed by June , ( 1 9 ) ( 20 ) The letter i s reproduced in appendix A . This method o f approach gave farmers time to thiru� about the survey . The author believes that this as s i sted the co-operation he obtained , 54 J . J . s Each sur \-c-y c oPuneHced ,,-j_ t h atl inspcc tion of' the� f· a rm . T h e ini tial part of thi s period ·was c oncerned K i t h gaining- t h e :farmers c onfidence ( 2 1 ) and obtaining kJJ.oKledge o f' the phy s i c;al properties Of' 1-h :r -- ( 22 ) ·c e arm , Tbi s , .. -as follo;·;ed by a randma di s cuf.J s i on o f t h e vari o us managcnwnt prac tic e s emp l oyed by the farmer . ( 2J ) Ini tially provi s i on was made :for ·h.-o s urveys per da-y . Thi s · . . r �:w tice ;,·as di s c ont inue d a:fter t h e :firs t a t t emp t , The l ack of vorkiug t ime ( 24 ) m e an t t hat surveys K e r e rv.s h e d and farm impres s i ons not c l early defined in the au thor : s mind . It Ka s also di ffi cul� to adjus t t o two d i :ffe ren t pers onal i ties within a short peri od o f t im e , and different approaches Kere o f't en n e c e s s Rry in o r d e r t o obtain the required info:rmation . ( 23 ) ---- - ( 2 1 ) This is e s s en t i a l i :f a farmer ' s fu l l c o - o p e r a t i o n i s t o b e o b t a in e d , ii a r r e n ( 1 0 ) reported that i t w c:t s e s s ential to have rapport be t\,· eeu the res earch K orker and the farmer . ( 22 ) This i s e s s ential t o the unders tanding o f' manag-ement pr<1c ti �; e s . (23 ) This pro c es s allowed the farmer t o t a lk more fre ely <1b o u.t the farm and in JX.crt i cular the problem involved in farming i t , Grahame ( 1 9 ) hc:ts swmnarised the advantages of this fre e:flohr type of interview , (24) In general farmers preferred their farms t o be vis i t ed be twe en the hours of 9 a . m . and 5 p . m . C onsequently a maximwn of 8 hours per day Kas available for the .survey::: . This restricted farm visit s t o one per day . ( 25 ) For example one farmer may cons tantly diverge :from one parti cular topic during the cours e of the c onvers ation . I n such a cas e the interviewer has t o bring the farmer back t o that particular topic in o rder to obtain all the information required . On the o ther hand a re ticent farmer needs to be draKn out in order than his vie;,•s are fully expres s ed . 5.5 Hore time 1vas spent 1-.ri th individual farmers in the purpo s ive survey than in the random survey , As 1·:o l l a s dis cus s ing manar;ement practi c e s , physi cal a n d f'inanciGl a spects of deve l o pmen t �ve re exGmined in d e t a i l . H. c c o rds o f' development and f' inan c i al a c c o1m t s were b o r row ed by the author. The s e 11ere re turned after a thorough examination. Certain topics were dis cus s ed more on s ome properti es than on o thers , In general the author found mo s t farmers 1vere knowl e d g e ab l e on s to ck management , but le s s inf o rm e d on pas ture manag·emont . D eve l opmon t ,\-a s a s ens i tive subj e c t 1·:i th s ome farmers , The author made i t c leary bef'ore any d i s - cus s i on on thi s as pe c t , that he was no t there t o criti c i s e . Thi s probably re sult e d in a l l f'armcrs freely expres s ing t h e i r vi e1·.- s o n the que s ti on of :future dcve lopmen t , During the c ours e of the survey the author eained the benef' i t of time spent in the area as a farm advi s er ( 1 9 67-68 ) , S ome o f the survey farmers were kr w·Kn t o the wri tor prior t o the coJIL.rn enc emon t of the survey , This greatly as s is t ed the collection of inf'ormat i on and the co-operation rec e ive d , Overall , farmer co-op eration was excellent , A number of the random survey farmers o ffered financial information although this was not required . Others provided detailed information regarding personal dra1vings and the adjustments made to combat the c ost pric e squeeze . The surveys created much interest. By the time the first fe1v visits had been completed a large peroentage of hill country farmers had become a1vare of the study. S ome farmers not included in the survey were eager to participate . The wri t e r ga i n e d the imp r e s s i on that llill cotmtry fanners would par t i c i p a t e r e a d i ly in a n y s tudy they tho uGht mi ght be l � . . J ( 2 6 ) )ene:r J.c:t.a . • · J , J . G Th o S u rvev D<1 t a -------... �---- D a t a frol!1 the t1·;o s u rv e y s can b e foun d in chap t e r s four 2.nd :fi Ye . Chapter four deals i·.'i th information colle c ted .from t}:H) ranclo:11 .s u rve y , and includes da t a on farm s i ze , s to ck numb e r s , produc tion performances and at titudes to development , T.b.e inf o rma t �L on :from the l)Urposive survey is c ontained in chap ter i'iy e . T:h e par ticnlar to cJu·lique us e d in any res e arch s tudy i s de t e r:11i!1ecl by f o u:c main factors . These :factors are the t �ne , funds and data a\ra i l abl e and the C OJ;J.p l e x i ty of tlw problem . Fer c e r t a i n types of management p r o b l ems , e . g . d evelop�ent , a suf'fi c i on t elemen t of s imi larity may exis t be ·bv·e en fa rJTis t o r e a l i s t i c a l l y s p e c i fy a typical or repres entative :farm , On thi s farm de...-eloptnent opporhmi tics c an then be analys e d , Mo s t :f a r m e r s adjus t s lowly t o n e w condi tions and t e cbn o l o gy an.d nd in the price o �f wo ol alloi,'S a parametric evaluation o :f yearly overdraft requirements to be made . the bas e year progrrun and de termines the cash flow s i tuation � cleve lopmen t ha s b e en. c omple t ed , the evalua tion ErocEam - us ed to calculate the p r o :f i -t a b i l i ty o:f the de\·elopment pla11 . • development plan has a posi tive pre s ent va lue this program ·undertakes a parame tric evaluati on o:f profi tability for a spe cifi ed change in 1,·oo l producti on and in ,,· o ol pri c e , ( JO ) Output data from Ga r cln c r 1 s program includes produc t ion and :financial data for ea ch year of developmen t , pre and p o s t deve lopment data and profitability calculations . Us e o f this program reduced the time require:;d to anal-ys e development p r o granun e s and enabled a m o r e de tai led ana lys i s to be "Lm.clertaken . Ho;-.'ever , during the cours e o:f the s tudy s ome program limitati ons became apparent . Consequently the results of the analys es had to be s tudied in relation to these limitati ons . Such limi tations do not , however , de tract from the usefulness of Gardner 1 s program . They are a reflection ( JO ) The specified change is a plus and minus percentage of the expected yeild and price levels . 6 1 o f' the inherent di :ffi cul ty o i' incorporn ting :farm mannc;cmcn t lo�i c in to c om_pu t e r t e rms . T h e p r o gram r e qu i r e s m<1 :x:imui11 and minimum cullinG' rates t o be s pecif'i ed for a ll c l a s s e � o i' s h e e p . This prov:L d e s a certa in amount o f' flexibi l i ty but als o leads t o management anomalies . l�i th this sys t em small nwnbers of' bre eding e 1 1· e s can be purchas e d l n any one y ear . I n ac tual prac ti c e a farmer \·;·oulcl e i ther cull l e s s he avi ly or not bother to buy the additional ewes . S imilarly the Pl' O g:cnm a l l m1s the number o:f bre e ding eKes t o b e i n G re a s o d rap i d ly hy retaining o l d m-t e s , When the rate of' increas e d e c l j n e s thes e o ld ewe s a r e s t i l l reta ined , A s a r e s u l t <.m. 1..m r e a l :L .s t :L c n1..m1b e r o f t1·:o t o o th e1.;e s are s o ld . S tock los s e s cmmot be a l ter ed during the deve l o pm ent Thi s men.n.s that dir e c t allm·;aEce can..."'lot be made for hi gher s tock l o s s e s Kheu s to ck <:J. r e being us ed to n break in" land . Although lambing percentCLge s can be altered this do es no t completely allo 1 - for the reduced value o f the s t a ck s old , Kor does it make any provi s o for the increas e d nwnbers of replacement st o ck required . Development expendi ture for taxati on purposes i s deducted from the gross income in the year in which i t oc curs . result taxation payments cannot be minimised , ( 3 1 ) This As a ( 3 1 ) Taxation laws alJ.mv development expenditure incurred in any one year to be deducted over several years . Such a provision can reduce the to tal amount o f tax paid during development and hence the o_verdraft required t o finance development • . advers e ly a f f e c t s the ma.xinn.1.m overdraf't .figure , the til l le t o r e pay b o rro·h· e d m o n e y and the p r o f'i t a b i l i ty o:f t h o p r o gramme , Thes e variables a r c als o a f' f' e c t e d by the -o-. s-i.-: ur:·-r--L--v.-n_d_;· o tcntially P e nnan ent 1 ·------ --( 7;:. ) P r o J.u c tivc ( ;£ ) __ l·ias_t�_J?) _1 A ·1 2 3 B 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 2 1 J 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 l 19 - 20 80 N i l 2 0 7 8 9 13 89 9 3 s o 6 8 6 7 9.5 96 8 8 95 7 9 8 8 62 6 1 3 4 9 ·'+ 8 3 5 6 2 6 28 I:\ i l Nil 8 6 Nil Nil 2 1 1 6 8 1 6 5 7 4 2 44 6 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 3 10 6 JO 23 9 2 In very dry swnmers the natural ·h-ater supply on s ome survey farms at Paekakariki fails . Els ewhere throughout the dis trict ab1..u1dan.t natural \\-at er suppli e s exist on all properties . On s ome fa rms where further subdivis ion is envisaged , w·ater supplies will need t o be extended . 4 . 6 Buildin� On all the farms surveyed woolsheds , sheep yards and cattle yards were adequate . F our farmers on larger and more broken c o1mtry had two or m o r e s e t s of s h e ep yards . This f'ac ili tate (l handling o f' the s "L o ck and reduced t h e t ime invulvcd w i t h s to ck o p e ra t i o ns . o f c: a t t l e yards . C o t t l e yards were genera lly poorer in c o n lU. tion a nd l ay out than tho s h c� e p y a r d s . Acc omewdation :f o r marri e d p e rman e n t lil G n i s of a s a t i s fa c t o ry s tandard . Farm hous e s ranee in quEt li ty from hous e s bui l t more than J O y e a rs a go to modern howe .s . The overall s t and c.� r cl of' f'a:cPl Jtous inc; i s good . T e nul' C o f F a rn .s Tenu r e o f the individual :('arms is l i s t e d in � ab l e 4 , J , A l l but t, .. -o f'arms are f:c e e h o l d propert i es . The exeeptivns are a N a o r i leas ehold property and a Cro�n Land property . The �aori leas e property c ons i s t s o f' two blocks o f' l a n d with leas e s of 1 7 and 1 5 years r e s p e c t i ve ly , Thi s property i s s i tuc. ted in a n a r e a ,,-he r e muc h o 1� the land h a s been m .. ""11. C c1. b;.l the �aori pe ople , Tho C roKn Lan.d pr o p e rty is the Lands and Survey 1 s f8.rm � 1·."hareroa , s i tuated at P a ekakariki . The respons ibi li ty for the management of the survey farms is given in tab l e 4 , J , Individual 01\TIGrs are respons ible for management on 80 per c en t of the farms . The o ther four farms are controlled by managers . The degree of absent e e o wnership in the di s tric t is small . Only five of the 70 hill c ow1.try farms identified by the author have abs entee owners . 4 . 8 Farm 0Kners The age distribution of the s ixte en owner operated farms is listed in table 4 . 4 . I ' 70 Table 4 , J Tenur e and R e spons ibiliE_�f'or N<.m !1. e r opera t o rs arc m o r e thnn 5 0 y e t:l.rs o i' ae;e . The a u t h o r f'o uncl f a rm e r s in thi s gr oup t ende d t o have fi:·:ecl ideas about management practi c e s . Five of the eight f'<1 :rme ::.�s in thi s group will e ·ventua .l l y t r an s :f e r c ontrol of the f'a nns to t h e i r s ons . O f' the 1 6 01·.-n o r operatccJ. farlJI.:.; ! eight hil.VG 0 1,-n e d t h e i r farm s :for t en years o r l e s s , four :C o r t en t o t K en ty y e a r s � and f' our m o r e t han t h· en ty y e a rs , F ive o :f the 1 6 01'.""1 l e r s have ha cl f'an:li nrs experience i n a r e a s ou t s i de the Horo 1..-l18·nua di s t r i c t . The exp e r i enc e h�s range d from Jni x e d c r opp ing �u1 d d a i ry i ng t hrough t o s l1 e ep :farming . One :Carm e r a l s o h c:. s prac t i c ::.t. l la.l.mv l e dgo of ac c ountancy a n d bus iness mO.J1.ag cment . The o t he r 1 1 m·:n e r s are f'a:nncrs 1v·ho have spent many years h-arking on farms in the di s tric t . All four managers a r e c apab l e men with a number o f' years of farming experi ence . The wri ter cons iders that the managerial abil i ty o:f these men is equal to that of the resident survey ow:ners . 4 . 9 Farm Labour Permanent labour is employed on 1 J of the 20 random survey farms . On five o:f the s e farms the perwanent labour i s the owner 1 s s ons . from one to :five , The nwuber of permanent men employed ranges Ten farms employ one , t1vo farms three , and one :fc:trm f'ive permanent men . 7 2 A J.l o i' the :fa rnts orc,anis ed by rn<)nagers cwploy pPrmanent la·IJour . The mon omployod on the f'arws arc usually e x p e r i enc e d shepherds . However l a rc;er 1.xn i ts also ewploy mccl1anics and uns k i l L3 cl labo ur , Fal.lint; pri c e s and r i s ing c o s t s have caused two :farmers t o r e duc e the numb e �c o :r permanent labour uni t s on their :farms . Fourteen :farm e r s employed e i ther c ontra c t o r casual shearers . C ontrac t fencers and s crubcutt crs 1·' e r c hired by 1 G .farmers . Four of' the survey farms did no t employ o u t s i d e labour . A me a s Ll r e o:ften us ed as an i:n.di c c.1 t o r o f labour pro duc ti v.L ty is the nwnbcr o l' bre eding e,\·e: s p c �·:' l a b o ur uni t . Thi s i s a ra t io and a s such suf':fers :frow a llwub c r o :f disadvuntaces . One disadvantage i s that i t as s mne s the s i z e o f the bre eding t·l o ck d e termines the nwnber of l ab o llr lUli ts required . Thi s i s o f t en not the cas e as i s illus trated by farm numb e r 1 9 . Be caus e all development 1wrk i s carried out b y farm l abour a me chanic/Helder is employ ed , H en c e i n thi s ins tance the s i ze o f' the breeding flock do es not de termin e the nmnber of labour uni ts . Despit e this the measure doe s give s ome indication o f the · nwnb e r o f breeding ewes being handled by labour uni t s . On the Horowhenua hill country the number of breeding ewes per labour uni t ranges from 350 to 1 500 . The average i s 873 ewes per labour unit . The rati o o f 1 , 000 breeding e\ves per labour unit is exceeded on ten farms . Casual l abour is available for work on hill c ow1.try farms as all farms are clos e to maj or tmms . However a few survey 7 3 �arm e r s have di�ficulty in hiring e xperi enced casual labour . The avero�e wa�e f o r c a s ua l � o rk e rs i n the northorn and c entra l a r e a s i s o n e dollar ( A 1 ) per hour . Competition ±'or labour wi th the indu s t r i a l s e c tors of W e l l in e t o n and the Hu t t V a l l ey forces hi l l c oun t ry :f ( E . E . ) us ing the c o ef:fi cients in t ab l e 4 . 5 . The co effic ient s in t ab l e 4 . 5 a r e s imi l a r to tho s e us e d by C artwright except that a fixed c o e:ff'icim 1t has l.1 e en us ed r L!. ) i'ol · s e e below 1 6 Kil 5 � il N i l 1 7 5 6 2 5 4 2 8 . �- 1 8 1 500 3 1 70 5 6 . 6 1 9 4670 5 2 1 3 4 2 . 6 20 3400 5 9 1 1 8 . 2 Notes - 1 . * Farm 1 5 had recently been enlarged through the acquis i tion of more land s o figures in co lunms 4 and 5 are not meaningful . 2 . The me thod of development as s o ciated 'vith s t o ck increas e s on farm nwnber 20 is des cribed in chapter 5 · 8 1 shown for 1 8 farms . The figures show that five o :f these :farms have ll a d n o i n c reas e i n t o t a l e w e equivalen ts in the l a s t :five y e a r s . S e v e n .f a rm s h � t v c h a d an a v e r n �- c i n c r e a s e i n ewe equivalents o f m o r e than six p e r c e n t per y e a r . On thc� s e lat t er :farms d e ve l o pment work has been carri ed out . The remaining s ix farms had nnnual C.,TO'.,·th rat e s be tKe en one per c ent and s i x per c ent . Thes e i'armers :h a v e ha d no fixed p a t t e rn t�J the ir increas e in e11'e equivalents . The season , as much as any thing, has de termined the y e a r ly increFl.s e in s t ock nwnb e r s . 4 . 1 3 Future P roduc t i on 0 1v11ers o f s urv ey farms w e r e Ct s k e d ,,·ha t they c o n s i de r e d t o b e the p o t en. t i a l carry inr; c apac i ty of the ir fe�.rms . r a n g e d from 3 . 5 E . E . p e r acre t o 1 0 E , E " p e r ( 1 0 ) acre . ' Mos t farmers ( 75% ) cons i d e r the i r fan11S could c a rry .5 E , E . per produ c tive acre \·:hen i'u l ly deve l o p e d . C ompared t o the district average of 3 . 0 E . E . t h i s r ep r e s en t s a s ub s t an t i a l increas e in carrying capac ity . The like lihood o f thi s increas e in carrying capacity b e ing achieved in t h e future i s s light ( s e e pp 2l.j. 4/s) . Only four farmers env i s age l a rge increases in carrying capacity in the next five y ears . Thes e farmers already have development progranm1es under \vay . Hos t o f the survey farmers have no plans for subs tantially increasing product i on . ( 1 0 ) The Lands and Survey farm i s aiming at achi eving a c arrying capaci ty of 1 0 ewe equivalents per acre . The author does not consider this phys i cally nor economically feas ible wi th present t e c hnology . ( s e e P . 2Jl.J. ) L� . 1 L 1 A t ti t u d e s t o D c v_e ] o pl_!2.en t Al thouc;h m a n y survey farJ iler.s bel i c v·e s it,J.1. ifi c0nt 82 product i on increas e s are pos s ibl e , f' e w f'arm e r s a r e ai.;t emptinc to achi eve them , Dur ing t he s urv ey the author at t empted t o obtain informa ti on on farmers ' atti tudes t o development and their reas ons for n o t increasing produ.c t i or1. . Fifty p e r c ent o f' the survey :farmers s a id that they arc int eres ted in future d e v e l o pment , I t i s s ignif'i cant tha t of the s e half are prepared t o borro1v capi tal for deve lopment •wrk . ( 1 1 ) The o ther half are only prepared t o develop their farms out of income . This i s becaus e o f the un c e r t a inty surrow1.ding future c os t and pTi c e movemen t s . I :f capital is borrO \·.-ed for deve lopment and pri c e s c ontinue to :fall and c os t s to ri s e , then i t would be di�fi cul t to me e t the �j na n c i a l c har r- e s incurred . In addi tion the s e :farmers beli eve tha t t h e y c ould los e c apital a lready inve s t ed in the i r £'arm . ( 1 2 ) This group of farmers c on s ider tha t i t i s unlikely t o b e profi table to borrow for future d eve lopmen t . However with the pres ent pric e c o s t relati onship deve lopment out of income is limi t ed . The amount o f cash available for reinves tment in the farm i s decreas ing , ( 1 J ) ( 1 1 ) ( 1 2 ) ( 1 J ) These farmers cons ider that there i s adequate off farm capi tal available for development work , and that i t would be profitable to borrmv for development , This could occur through the reduction in equi ty as s o ciated 1vi th a borrO\ving programme not being o ffs e t by a profitable development programme . This is e s pecially true for farmers with low incomes and l O\v equitie s . 8J Rapi d increa s e s in c a rrying capaci t i es a r c the refore mt l i k e l y t o be achieved :from i n c o m e a n d any_ pr oduc t i on increati e i s l j kely t o b e s pasmodi c , For va ri ou� r e a s o n s t en :f 'armers ( _so% ) are n o t prepared t o und e r t c:tkc development 1\'0 rk. in the :fo res e eable :fu t ure . Three :farll lcrs in thi s group c on.s idcr a c ons o l i dn t i o n pho. s c ( 1 4 ) i s es s ent i al a t t he p res ent t ime . Th e y a r c o :f the opini on that such a period would improve their financial po s i t i on , I n their vi ew development a t pres ent p r i c es would be unprofi tabl e . ( 1 S ) S in c e they have :fre eho ld :farms , t•,·o :farmers a r e c or. tent wi th their pres en t :financ i a l s i tu a t i on . At t h e present momen t t h e y cons i der there i s n o r e a l inc entive t o d e v e l o _!") their :farms t o hi f;her produc t i \'e l evel s . ( 1 6 ) One :farmer s aid he i s t o o old t o c onsider any more development work . He i s p r e paring to give c on trol o :f t h e farm to h i s s on . On ano ther :fnrm the abs entee o1,r:rter i s preventing deve lopment . Surplus c a sh is be inc used :for pers onal us e rather than :for worthTdli l e development , ( 1 7 ) ( 1 4 ) I n thi s c ontex t cons olidation refers to the improvement o f the produc tive performanc e o f the exis ting s t ock . For the heavi ly c o�ni tted :farmer this may be the only p o ss ible method o:f maintaining income levels . ( 1 5 ) This s tatement was made intui tively by the three :farmers c oncerned . N o attempt had be en made t o evaluate the likely outc ome o:f planned :future deve l opment . ( 1 6 ) There can be no such thing as " s taying put " under a s y s t em o:f ris ing c os ts and :falling inc omes . I :f the real ne t income i s t o be maintained produc ti on will have to be increas ed . ( 1 7 ) An annual :fertilis er application 12robably c ould rai s e c arrying capacity by 50 pe� c ent on thi s :farm . 84 1'1,·o fa rmers c ons ider this clas s o f hill c otmtry ,,r ill no t l)e an e c on omi c propo s i t i on in a fe,,· y e a rs tim e , The reas on f o r thi s lJ e l i e f i s ri s ing c o s t s and f a l l ing pri c e s . Deve lop- m e n t therefore Kill not be c ons ide red under any c ircumstance s . Thes c f'armers a r e \lant ing t o s e l l t h e i r farms and reinves t the cD.pi tal in i:\ c l o t h e r indus try . ( 1 8 ) One fa rm e r said he is no t intere s ted in deve lopment becaus e dev e lopment financ e is too c o s t ly , i . e . interes t rates are t o o high , He said that low interes t money should b e available f o r the deve lopment of thi s c la s s of' hi l l c otm try . Ho�ever if deve lo�nent i t s e lf is profitable then i t should be pro:fi table t o borrow f o r deve lopment under the .£�!inG il1.tcr - e s t rat e s . In S lJJTllii et r y the reasons 1�o r hill c ountry fanr:ers re:fro.ining from ea rrying o ut deYe lopmen t are m::1ny and ',ra r i e d , The three mos t important fac t or s are an avers i on t o d e b t , the b e l i e f tha t deve l o pment is unp r o f i t a b l e and w1.eertainty about the future . I f farmers are to be encouraged to increa s e production ( 1 9 ) then they mus t be shm,'11. that : ( i ) increas ed production ,,· ill increase p o s t tax ( i i ) ( iii ) profi ts it i s prof'i table t o borro·hr for development planne d deve lopment wil l no t be advers ely affec t ed ( 1 8 ) The implicit assumption is that the capital releas e d wi ll earn a higher re turn in industry than in farming . ( 1 9 ) From both the farmer ' s and the nation ' s point of view increas ed production is nec e s sary in order to maintain the s tandard of living , ss by further price falls . For thi s purpo s e greater euiplw s i .:; mus t b e placed on :fo.rm man agement advi c e , H o re ini'orma tion 1 m s t b e supp J_ied to indivi dual farmers whi r-b. wi l l enable them to increas e the i r man ag-e r i rLl a b i l i_iJ:: ( 20 ) and hence thei :t' e fficiency , At the t ime of the survey fa rm c o s t s 1-.r e r o s t eadily increas ing and produc t prices 1·:ere :falling , During t h e c ours e of' the surveys many :farmers menti oned adjns tmon·� � they h a d made in an endeavour to maintain net incomes . The ac ti on t aken to maintain inc omes va. r i e d according to the individual farm s i tuation . ( 2 l ) The ad jus tments m a d e by the survey farmers arc br:L e :fly li s ted belcH : - ( i ) reduced labour :force - many hill c o un. t ry f a rme r s have reduced the nwnber of permanent la.bour un i t .s . This has increas ed labour pro duc tivity and :ceducocl fixe d co s t s . ( ii ) subs t i tuti on of own labour :for c ontract labour - s ome :farmers have j o ined t oge th e r and a s sis t e d e ach o ther wi th s t ock opera tions e . g . shearing , This has reduced cash costs . ( iii ) reduced maintenance and deve lopment expenditure - the amount of fertiliser applied , and the amount of ( 20 ) This as sumes that managerial ability is a farm input i . e . each farmer has his own performance level 1vhich differs from that of o ther farmers . ( 2 -1 ) The l evel of debt , s i ze o f farm , c o s t s tructure , and pers onal income requirements will a ll affec t the type and amount of adjus tment required . 86 fencing repairs has been markedly de creas e d , supplemen ting farm inc ome by o ff' f a r , , 1 Kork . ( v ) r e du c e d. p e r s onal drawings - c . G . f a rm e r A $ I , J ? '·l t o $ 600 ; farm e r B $; 2 , 272 t o $ ·i , 4 9 1 , ( vi ) increo. �:; e d production . Up t o the pres ent t ime t he c o s t pri c e s qu e e z e h a s large ly b e e n o f:ff; e t by reducing maint enance expend iture and p e rs onal drm1ings . The s e m e a s ur e s can o t , hm·:e,·er , b e c ontinue d ind e :f i n i t c l y . Inevitably :f<� . .L'mers ,.,-i ll have t o l o ok t o i n c r e a s e d cffic i ency ( 2 2 ) and productiYi ty as a m e a n s o :f ma:.i.n t a in i ng n e t incomes . Thi s s ub s e c ti on deals \vi th the s e a s onal r:1 a n :::. g e m e n t o f catt le . Breedinr; E1·: e s ___ ___,.______ ( 75% ) o :f s urvey farms . P erendale eK e s lv·ere be ing r a T.r-lo d only on f o ur propertie s . On tKo of the s e properti e s the LJ.mbing percentage Kas s ignificantly ( 1 o% ) .1 li gher than R0ll1!1.ey lambing perc entages . At the time o f the survey tKo farmers ,,-ere in the pro ce s s of changing bre eds . The change ,,·as from the Ronmey to the P erendale m1.d Coopworth breeds . This was an attempt t o improve lambing percentages . ( 22 ) Lambing date s varied from the 1 s t Augus t t o the s ec ond Thi s may involve increas ed output per 1.L11. it of res ource , the elimination of' non e s s ential costs and improved management • 87 week in S eptember . On :four filrms l ambing c ommenced on the 1 s t Augus t , o n eight f'a nns the mi dd l e week in Aucus t , o n s e v e H farms the b c giLuJ inc; of S e ptember and. on one f a nn i:;he s c� c ond week in S eptenilicr . ( ? ,, ) EKes ,,·ere s e t s to cl;::ed ·- .J over lmnbin.g on all survey f a rm s . W he r e pos s ibl e a l l e w e � were l ambed on the :f l n. ts ilnd tlwn moved onto the hi lls . On farms 1d. t h only s ma l l a r e a s of fla t s the maj ori ty of the lambing o ccurred on the hi l l s . \l e aning ( 23 ) da t e s varied f'rom 1 s t Dec eJliber t o mid January , On a nmnber o f fc=t rms the ,,- caning d a t e ...-as determined by the e w e s h ea ring d a t e , One farmer had the: unu s u a l pra c ti c e ( :for tl1 i s clas s of c o<-mi'ry ) o :f 1·.· e an ing in December . lambs ,,· e; r e t h en s ho rn in J an uary a f t e r the l C.>.mbs had rec overed from the e f f' c c t s o:f w e a n i n g . Only one s urvey f"armer shore h i �. ewes twi c e a y e a r , This ,,·as done vinter �eed for the hogge ts , Thi s c ons is ted o :f choumo e lier and s1;cdc s in :five ins t a.n c e s and h< l Y in the o th e r t-1,- o , Hay a n d again the :follm;ing �larcb/Apri 1 a::� tlv o ( ' Y7 ) to o t ll s . · - ' survey :f a rm e r only shore in D e c embe r . old :for s e c ond shearing , 9J O n e Culling o:f ewe hogge ts was largely on we i ght and w o o l qv al i t y . }!any :fann e r s a l s o culled � .. -o o l l-y :faced hogget s , The :fe cwldi ty ( 2 8 ) o r t h o s e s h e e p i s generally lm . or th;:m_ O IJ O ll :f21. c ed sheep . 4 . 1 5 . 4 Dis cus s i on Thi s i s nec es sary if go od l ambing percentages and wool we ights are t o b e o b t aine d . �Iany :C a r; n e r s ,,-ere w·1succe s s ful in rearing good s i zed tw0 t o o tJ1 e -;,· e .s , Thi s fai lure no t onJ:y r e s u l t s i n a n iuunediat e l o s s L< product i on :from thes e she ep but a l s o l o·i\-el' productivi ty over their life time ( 2 �� ) . E\ve hogge ts are sus ceptible to dis eas e , c limatic c ondi tions and feed changes . The ma j or reas on :for poor growth is the failure of the f'armers to provide fe ed of adequat e 9-uality . The author c ons idered that the bes t two t o o th ewe s 1vere :found on properties where e1ve hoggets were g::cazed in ( 27 ) ( 28 ) Hanika 1vodzicka-Tomas ze•,•ska e t al ( 23 ) have shown. that pre-tupping shearing of t•,•o tooths can often subs tantially increase the lambing percentage by de creas ing the number o:f dry e1·1es . S e e glos sary , a s s o c i ation with cattle . T11"0 non s urv ey f'armc rs have adopted p r << c t i c e s Khi cll a re aimed a t o b t a inin g better quali ty tKo t o o �h c � e s . the s e farmers hu y s in replacement -t .-.-o t o o t h P \·: e s . O n e o :f ;-r e c ons i cl- ers tha t the s e sheep a r c u e t t e r th::-tn tho :r e p l a c omc n t .s he c an breed . The o ther fa.rmer Grazes l d s e,,·e J�I O (;{:', e t s on lowland farms in an endeavour to have b i g g e r t w o too �h eKe s . 4 . 1 5 . 5 H e t h e r s A du l t wethers wore f a u na on thre e o f' t h e t�enty survey farms . The ind ivi dual pol .L c i e s and the farw 2r 1 s r c a s o n s :f o r us ing wethors Kere as fol l oKs : - ( i ) to increas e managem ent f' l e ;..: i ll i l i ty - t h e �,- ether lambs tha t w e r e not s o ld fa t K e r e c a rri e d tlrr ough a n d s o ld a s t1·-.-o t o o t h wethers . The 1�armer s 2. id tha t o n ( i i ) untopclres s ed hi ll c o"Lmtry \lhere the e f'i' e e; t s of a bad s eas on a r e likely to be more s e v e r e , thi s pol i cy gaYe him increased flexibility . I f thoro Kas i n s u fF i c i en t feed the we thers c ould be s old . Thi s would a\ro id the nece s s ity to s e l l capital bre e ding s t o ck , to reduce labour and fert i lis er requirement s - all w e t h e r lambs are kept and s o ld as adult we thors . The s e we thers are run on an untopdres s ed i s olated block wi th diffi cult ac ces s . The wethers are farmed for woo l produc tion . Each year the wors t wethers are s old. The farmer said that they give a re turn from a block '"hich c ould not support ewes without an annual :fertili s er application . Their annual labour requirement i s small and do es not interfere with the 95 labour requirements of the breeding ewe s . ( iii ) :for us e in duYe l o pmcn t a .l 1,·ork -· this :f a r m e r buys in four tooth � e t h e r s a n d th e s e are us e d for developinG paddocks . They n. r o s o.l d as :full mou-ch --;-;e thcrs and r e p r e s en t 1 7 per c ent o f the to tal s he e p pres ent on tl1 e prope rty , D i s c u s s i on In the author ' s opini on 1,·e t h e r s are only jus tifi ed in t h e s e c ond ins t ance and then marl_? ..:.nally s o . Ewes are s t ill the mos t profi t a b l e c la s s of s t o c k t o carry on thi s t y p e o :f hill country • ( 2 9 ) They c a n b e u s e d succe s s fully :for de ve lopmental purpo s e s ( 3o ) and s t e p s can b e t ak en in advers e s eusons t o e n s u r e s u ffi c i en t :fe e d i s ava i l abl e f o r them , The s e a r e p r 2 s en t on s ixteen survey :f a rm s . The main bre e d is A b e r d e e n Angus . F i ve fann e r s run e r a s ::: breeds , e i t h e r Abe rde en Angus/Hereford , or l!., berdcen Angus/Shorthorn . The s e :farme r s cons ider the cro s s bre ed is a ha:cdi er ;:m.imal and better sui t ed t o this clas s of c ow1.try . ( 3 1 ) Calvinff oc curs mainly in S eptember and O c tober . Two farmers calve their breeding cows out s ide thi s period - in July and December . This is to avoid c lashing with laniliing ( 29 ) ( 30 ) ( 3 1 ) See appendix D . Inglis ( 25 ) s tated that the ewe i s a better developer than the hog get , t h e lvether or the ea ttle beas t . American s tudies indicate that cros sbred cattle will have greater vitali ty , fertility , milk production and higher grmv-th rate s than purebred animals . However the extent of the advantages of' crossbreeding in Ne-.;,, Zealand have not been evaluated . and t o avoid labour probl ems , The farmer 1d1.o cal Yes his c m>s in ,July feed s t l1 em on nutwun s a\' O d pas ture lmtil ,,· can :i. .nc; . Th e s : lJne f'armc:r clocks very early - ten clays a :fte :c c a lving . Thi s i s hoh·cvc r , an e xcep t ion t o the c;eHer<:l. l practi c e . A:ftcr 1veaning ( ?<1arch/April ) the bre ecliD g c o11s are us e d to c ontrol surplus :fe e d and s e c ondary grm·:th , Cn s o m e :La rms they a l s o play an important r o l e in developing n m,· blocks . �Iany e :f the older c o1vs deteri orate in c oncli t i o n un d e r t h i s t r e a t m e n t and a r c culled , The pro'.' i s ion o f fe e d :for brc� e ding cm·.-s in U1.e lat e ,,· inter ear ly sprinc; p2riod i s inadequc.. t e o n many survey :farms . ?-I any :fo.rm e r s at t empt t o winter bre eding cm,-s on large areas of fern and o ther rouc;hage . A u t wn s aY c d pas ture v:as p r o \-i d e d on thr c o farms and h·:henua hil l c o1..m try i s r; o t particularly sui t' ma t ine; o f he i f e r s \\ a s qno u t: i ty o f' :feed w a s insuf:f'i c i e n t f' o r b o t h the c a l f' <:tJ l d t h e h c i .L e r . 4 . 1 5 . 9 D r v C <';_ t t l e _,_r _ __ _ D ry C' a t t 1 e ,,· e r e f'Lt rm o d on f' our s urvey :fa rms . On tKo o :f th C? c; c :Ca n n s t o wn milk S l '-pply c o�1;:; 1v e r e us c cl t o c on :: r o l po s t u�_'<:' gr o •:; t h , The s e a1:. :Lmal s c ould n o t b e gra :0 e d h a : r d c G l oi c o n s e c-ru. e n -c ly p a s cure c ontrol \·: a s no t a s t;o o d a s i t c ould h:J.V•3 b e e n . One :C a rm c r 1·:as v s ing Ile :�:- e :f o r d/F r i e s i an c r o s s c at t l e ·:) b t a i n c d :from l:. i s t m\-:�1 mi lk. s upv 1y h e r d. . The s e anim<.1 l .s '' f� r c r e a r e d e i t h c r by nur s c C 0 \\7 S o r b y ha:1. d , w e r e us ed t o c ontrol [';TO\\th on tlw sheep property· , They 11ere s old nt t�o years of ace . Th8 remcining :fa rm e r buys in e :i.gllt een month o ld s te ers and s e l l s them a s three y e a r olds . The s e s te ers play an imp o r t � 1 t ro l e in fern control and o ther deve lopmental work , Hature s t eers are us ed in development 1\0rk on four farms running bree ding co1vs . All o ther breeding farms sell the ir s teers as weaners . 1+ . 1 6 On many farms pa.st.ure is the sole s ource of feed , Therefore the only contro l a farmer has over the nutrition of 99 his s tock i s through pa s ture manaeement . The aim should be to adopt a sys tem whi ch wi ll r e s u l t in greater pas ture pr o du c t i vi ty and ensure that the animals' requircmen ts are me t . This i s e specially import i m t in the critical late win t e r early spring peri od . The pas ture mana c; emen t tc cl:r1iques b e ing us e d on survey f'arm s arc d e s c r i l1 e d i n the f'olloi·:i2:g s e c tions , 4 . 1 6 . 1 F e r t i l i s e r Pra c ti c e s lv i th the recent co s t - pri c e s qu e e z e mc>.ny survey f'armers have e i the r r e d u c e d the amo w : � of fertilis er applied , or s t opped apply i ng it altogether . S in c e 1 9 6 6 s ix survey farmers have not appl i ed a n y f'ertili s er and a :further three have not applied fertili s er to hi ll p a d d o ck s . Thi s means that t l.J.e hi ll c ountry on nine survey farms has not b e en t opdrc s s ed f' o r a t l eas t thr e e years . The quantity an d tyrJ e of :fertili s e r us e d by farmers 1d t h annual f' e r t i l i s c r progro.mmes is given in table 4 . 1 0 . On these farms the average app.·l_ i ca tion rate i s b e tKeen t1\'0 and thre e bundredv-.-eight ( cwt ) per acre . Fert iliser is applied to the ,,-ho le farm on n ine propertie s , On the o ther two farms l e s s than half of the productive area receives fert iliser annually . - Holybdic superphosphate i s .us ed on four of' the s e farms . O ther faiwers have s t opped applying molybdic superphosphate as they have no t obs erved any benefi t from i t . One farmer reported tauhinu c ountry as be ing responsive t o this fertiliser . T1vo farmers apply manures not commonly us ed in the dis tri ct , The Hanager o f Lands and Survey farm a t P aekakariki c onsiders the property is c obalt deficient . u ; r ' .., ( MA:s :;; ,' · . � . ·, :.:PSll'l. As a result in the 1 968/69 ·t o o Farm Qu ::mtity Nwuber P e r A c r e ( Cld :; ) Typ e o :f Fertiliser P c, r c enta c; e o :f P r o ch L c t i v e A r e a ��pdres s e d-----1 2 J I' .:.> 8 1 1 1 3 1 4 •J r.:: · ::> 1 7 20 2J._ - 2 J 2 t 2 ., .1_ "- 2 J 2�- 2 2 J Jl A e r i a l supcrphospha t. e A o r i a J !·l o lybcEc superphosphate A e r i a l superphospha te .L\ e r i a l .'3 , · : · erpho s pha t e .;.:­ Aerial ,'3 Llperphosph2. to Aerial superpho sphate Mo lybdic s up e rvho s pha t e Aerial superphosphate C o bal t i s e d aerial os upcrphospha t c?. 1 00 1 00 1 00 1 8 1 00 1 00 1 00 1 00 45 1 00 1 00 ----- --L---- ---� ------- ----------------- -�-------------- ·1 . -t Eve ry third year ba s i c s l ac . 2 . * Every third year n10 l·yb ::-l i c s up e r . l J s eas on c obalti s ed sup erphosphat e wa s applied for the firs t time , E>.,-i dence for a c a ba l t d c 1' i c i e n cy has come :from And:ce i,- s ( 27 ) . He has s tated that c ertain areas of the H o r m,-henua and Hutt co 1u1.ti es are probably c o b a l t deficient in s ome years and in s ome circums tances . This defi ciency i s likely t o be more preval ent in y01.mg she ep . The deficiency re sults in a progres s ive .loss o f appeti t e and a resulting loss in condition . One survey farmer applied bas ic s lag t o his pas tures every third year . Res earch has shown the effec tiveness of basic slag depends upon soil acidity ar1d soil type . 1 0 1 On l ime and no lybdf:mum deficien t s oils mo lybdic superphos phate Give s a s c; o o d a r e s u l l as bas i c s lag . A s bas i c s lu g i s almo ;; t t\d. c e the e o f. t of' mo :L�'bdi c superphosph::t t e the o: ... uthor fee l s i t s u s e on hi l l c otmtry i s not � a r r an t ed . ?-Iany survey f a rm c .t' � believed the hill cotu1try c ould be .fann e d Ki thou.t fertilis er f o r thre e years . A f t e r this p o r i. o d the pas tures would rte t e ri o ra t e , S ome survey farmers wi thout reg-ular t opdres s inc; programmes acb11i t t ed that c ertain pas tures had de t eriorated over the y e ars . On many o .f tho s e farms the autho r :fo w1d evi dence o f' r a t r::: t a i l in:f e s t a t ion 1\hich i s of' t en a s s o c i a t e d �i th low f e r t i l i ty . The infe s tati on i s p r o bably du o to a combination o:f lo1\� s t o cking rate and a L.'..ck o :f f e r t i l :L s e :c • F0r ne;·;ly developed bl ocks o .f 1-l.nd an ini t ial ap p l i c ias t e d , 1fhile many farmers Kere prep<-.J. ed to apply L1re;e quanti t i e s of' manure , n ot a l l ·i\·e r e prep c:.red t o � .ncreas c t h e s t o cking r a t e and h e n c e ut i l i s e the additiona l ::'eed gro1 .n . A s an example , one farmer believed i t Kas not pos s ible t o increas e the s t o cking rate on n e � bl o cks w1.t i l th:c ee years af t e r the initial app li c a t i on . U nl e s s the s t a c king ra t e is high enough to innnl� d i a t e ly cope 1d th the extra gras s gro1·:th no lJenefi t is gained from the e xtra fertilis e r , In the development of ne� pas ture the mo s t importc:mt f'actor i s u t i l i s a t i on . . Thus an increase in fert i lis er appli cation and s t ocking rate mus t o ccur s imultaneous ly . Where only small quant i ties of fertiliser are applied each year at tenti on mus t be .focus ed on ho 1·; this fertili s er can be best us ed , . By es tabli shing priori ti es the bes t use o f the available fertilis er is ensured. The firs t priority should be newly deve loped blocks . Naintenance dres sings mus t be applied annuall·f t o these blocks to c onsolidate the gains in fertility made from previous fertili s er applications and good grazing management . The next area to receive fertilis er should be the well es tablished pas ture . The bulk of the production c omes f' r o rn t hi s etr c a and t o wain t a i n this r e [.,'ll l a r Ec r t i l l � c r application is e s s en t i al . arc ;_-,_ s h a v e b e e n t o pclrc s s c c..l s J ould th0 c o.lrl , d ry o r 1.il l p r o < ln c -· ti·ve �� r c a s c o n s i dc' r c d . The r e l S l i t t l e p o in t i n applying fcrt i l :i. s er t o -,1n.rcspons ive p z.s turc � , e , g , pas ture s c on t a. ining li t t l •::: c l over . Th e quna ·c i ty o f f e r t i l i s e r t o appl.y t c nain t c swallcr . 4 . 1 6 . J 1v i th the excepti on o i' three farms , subdivis i on on the survey farms was ina d e qua t e . The r eas ons for this were va:r:-i e d . On s ome fa rms the natural t errain made the s i t ing of fences difficul t . X a tural fence l ines lv-ere the rule rather than the exception on thes e farms . The maj or reason for the lack of adequate subdivis i on was ( J� ) S ource : J ournal of Agriculture November 1 968 p . 1 00 . 1 04 undoubtedl;r :financ e . Fen cing i s c o s tly t o erec t and immedi ate financi c.t l re turn s f'rom i t are n o t obvio us . Re c en t subd:L vi s i on o n s o m e s u r \" e y f ' a r m s c ould have been c; r e a t er . l' l a n · f ' a rm e r ::;; are s t i l l. ere c t i ng t h e tracli t i ona l \\· c l l ba t t en e d s e � en wire f e n c e . By us inc; the P ears e ten 1dre :fc�1 c e the c o s t K o u l d haYe be en substant ia l ly reduc ed a l l o 1di1g more f'enc ing t o be ere c t ed . ( 28 ) The more p r o .<;r e s s i ve :fanners in t h e di s tri c t o.r e n m .� be ginning t o us e thi s type o :r. f' onc e . �� - L n i o n s about the value o f e l e c tric fenc in g va r i e d . Th�o survey formers a r e obtain ing c;o o d resul ts f'rom e l e c tri c fenc e 3 , O th e r f a rm e r s s ay that they arc n ot s at i s :fac t ory on t h i s c l as s of hi l l c oun t ry . l+ . 1 6 . 4 D i s c u s s i o n The lack o :f subdi,- i s i on has c ontributed t o inc ompl 10) t e uti l i s at i on o� p a s t u r e and ine :f:fc c t ive c on trol o f weeds on s ome survey :farms . In a dd i t i o n an adequate gra zin g i n t en s i ty has n o t been achi eve d . This ha s l imited the ef'f'e c t ivcne s s o :f a l o t o f mobs t o cking . The author i s c onvinced t h a t p3_s ture produc tion would b e grea tly impro�ccl i :f s uffi c i ent grazing int ens i ty was exerted all the y e a r round . ( 35 ) Nany hi l l c o cmtry pas ture s are nndcrgra z e d . S tock numbers , no t paddock s iz e , i s the mos t important fac tor in grazing management . Te Awa result s ( 29 ) ho�ever , show that subdivis ion can b e us ed a s a means o f increas ing the s t o cking rate . Thi s increas ed s t o cking rate ( 35 ) Results from Whatawhata Re s earch S tat i on show that hard­ grazing of hill blocks carrying 4 . 2 ewe s per acre and receiving 2-3 cwt of superphosphate annually '"'i l l produce 66% more available dry matter than lax grazing . 1 05 �i ll r e s ul t in greater gra z i ng pr e s s ure b e ing n pp J. i e d . The e n d r e s u l t \•:i .l l b e :.1 c i H. l ll (.:',· c i n p3 :3 t u r e m;a r cl s . �\ at i v e t_; T a. s s e s c . c; . ln.' O ':; n t o p n n d c ! a :..1 t l 1 o n i a ,, .i. l J . ;J o r e p l c ;_c c d by J l ! O r e produc tive sp� c i e s . � . 1 6 . _5 ?-J any s u r Y e y :fa s ·t Ln' e s c l o 'r e r . )l o s t :f a nne r s s h o s pha t e . The c o s t o � thi s vari ed. f'rom �; 8 t o $ 9 per a c :;.- ,� . One :fa rJ; w r o v e r s o ·. : e d hi ]_ 1 pa s t u J: e s ''' i th 1 0 lb o f p e r 8 r,..n i et l ry c t;-r3 s s p e r a c ro , Es t ab l i s l.:.m e n t ,v· a s p o o r on s ome palldoc l� .s . On o ther .=; , l·: lv:-:r e gra zing m<:lnc-, t;emen t be fore O '.TC J.' S md.ng had b e en be t ·[; e r , r e a s o n - :::1 b 1 e e s t a b 1 i s l lm en t •'+ . 1 6 . 6 ( '") 6 ) o c curred . _) Th e d e g r e e c :f revers ion tl 1roughout t. l1 e H o r o \ : h e nu a hi l l c o m·1 t ry a r e a vari e s . Revers ion i s a c r c a t e r p :c o l ) J . G m in t h e HanaJ-:.a.u regi on than in o t h e r areas . On s ome properties revers i on t o na t i v e bus h has o c curred . A � c ording t o the fa rme r s concerned this w i l l be le:ft . Els ewhere <:�dequate t opdre s s ing a n d good gra zing m anagement is ne c e s siry t o prevent revers ion to fern , s crub and tauhinu . S ham.!. on ( 3 6 ) Bes t results from overs owing are obtained when the area i s kept closely gra zed :for s everal months . This enab l e s the yot.mg clover plants to receive maximwn light and t o become properly es tablished . 1 0 6 sur<,rey fanners s <:.t id that w i thout t opdress in� i t i s d i f' f i cu l t to s t o p touhinu inf'e s t n ti on . I n parts o f' the Reikorangi va l l ey revers i on has o c c u r r e d rapi dly . A r e a s o n s ome o f the s e surv ey f'arms have been planted in pine t r e e s . Greater r e ve r s i on t o fern , s c rllb , and other ,\- eeds in th'_) �IanaJ.,:.au , O taki a n d R e i J.-c o r p r o b a l ; l y pr cv::.:t l e n t thr ouc-lwu t t ll e Horo1d1.01J.ua hill country , On the lightly s t o cked pas tures many l'armers are unaware o:f its pre s ence . 1-J . 1 7 S ummary The impori.:an t points :from thls chapter are : ·- ( i ) The s i z e o f the rand om survey i'arms r"ange :frcm 250 ( :L i ) D cres t o 9 , 000 acres 1 1d. th an E_�c r;�go_ o:f · 1 , 090 acre s . On average 7 8 per c en t o f the a r e a o :f the s u rv e y :farm s is unp l o u c;ha b l c . ( ii i ) Perma,.-wnt Kc• s t e a c c oun t s :for t en per c ent o f' the to t:.:t l area of' survey :farms . ( iv ) One in five o:f the s u r v e y farllls is c ontrolled by a uianager , ( v ) Ha]_ f. t h e survey farm e rs l a t o r o year lle i 1�f:"'rs c:t r e 11 01-.- ]) LE' C l J <:l s c d in t h e a u t wnn . To aYo i cl rw1J1.inr; lurge numt: c, )' S o :f dry s ·t o c k cull ing o f ewe replac ements no1·: o c c u r s ;::: t t h e e ,,- e h o c; g o t s tage . B e c 2m s e tJ 1 e m·: e .s KeJ.'e usuu lly l m1 in coHdi L i on at l r,li<:tn c e . b o u .::;l 1 t in t o i n c ;: e a s e s t o d.;: ·' ' "u!tb c r s £'a i l e cl t o do >·; e l l on t l'l i s c l n s s o .f c o un t ry . 1\ o o :L p ;·· i. c e s i' e .l l b y o l. 1 i J o s t a -::- ln r cl j n i�h e m i ddl e s t a G e s o � d e � c l u p m e n t . Thes e' :fa c t o r s c o ml•in e d t o r e du c e t h e an:o·:..: n t o :f cash availabl e f' o r cl cv P l O l )l' J e n t . In rcduc l' a sho :r [· t c r;u l ive s t o c k l o a F , Thi s p r o gra.mmc shm,·s the e 'f :fu c t a f p r i c �� fa l l s c n deve lopment done o u t of inc o m e . I t a d u .s c w pha.:; i s -e o t ll c E C� C' d to c oncentra t e o n qu.i ck :financial r e t u r n s \ ·; h e n t ry in{_!,' t o devel op out of inc o m e . The r e duc t i on in f e r t i l i s e r appli cat i on i n t he mid dl e s tage� o f d evel opment a:ffe c t e cl the s t o ck increas e s achi ev e d . The s t o cking r n t e of J . 6 E . E . per a cre is lo ,,· in re lat i on t o the potential o f the :farm , The author cons iders that increas ed fertili s er appli cation could rai s e the s t o cking rate to 4 . 5 E . E . per a c r e . ( 2 ) This has been the a ctual cash cost t o t h e farmer , figure does not t ak e into a c c ount the r e -c ent i on of ing s to ck o r any allowance for the farmer ' s l abour . The breed- 1 1 7 s . J C <1 S C' F a rm n Tlli :s f a rm i s s i t u :l t c d. a i; F a i kana e an d c a n b e cl ivi ,.:l c d int o The :front s e c t i o n o f l f O O c.. cre.s :;_':i s e s v e ry s ·L: c e p ly :from JOCJ :f 'e e t t o 1 600 feet above s e a leve l . The t o p s e c t i on o f' 8 1 8 E· r b e e a us e o :f s l o 1; s pring [:;T O ,·:tll , The climate i s s i mi l a r t o that c· xp e r i enc e cl by c a s e :f2.rm A , The farm i s O h'1'ler ope r<·l t ecl . 5 . J . 1 The D e v e l o pm 0 n t P l a n ----------- - --------- I n 1 9 6 6 a S tate A dvan c e s l oan o f' $ 6 1+00 \·: a ::; o b t a in e d . Thi s wa s us ed t o bring i11. to produc t i o n 60 a c r e s o :f t auhiuu in:fe s t e d l and a nd to purc Jw s e addit i onal l ive s t ock . Indian s crubcutters ·\\· ere used t o cut the ta uhinu \d1 i ch ,,·as burnt in the autumn and o v e r s 0 1\TI Hi th gras s and clover s e ed . ( J ) The area wa s fence d and 8 c1vt of aer-ial superphosphate was appli e d in the autwnn , 6 cKt in the spring and the s ame amount again in the following autwnn . The c o s t of developing the 60 acre block on a per acre bas i s was high , Individual c o s t s are ( J ) A mixture of ryegra s s , dogs tail and whi t e clover was s own . Es tablishment of ryegras s s e ed has been poor . Dogs tail s eed es tabli shed well . 1 1 8 given in tabl e 5 . 2 . T a b :1 r� ) • '2 _ ___ ___..·�- C a � c F;:u · m B - D eYc l c) ]"l ' ! i C·n t C o s t of T C l l< h i n u L;� n d ---�----- ---------- �-- -·----·-·-·-- I t e ; n S t o ck 7 20 1 2 . 00 F enc j_n g 6J5 1 0 . _5 8 H anuro 2600 h J . JJ s 0 0 (� J75 6 . 25 S c rub cut t inc; 1 1 20 1 8 . 66 I ----------�-------· ___ s _ · . ,, s . 4 1 I I �------ - I T o t a l I $5 450 :;-. C)O 82 y ' ' A s a result o 1� de'.'t: l opment t h e s t o cki ng ra t e on thi s block w a s r a i s e d from 0 . 5 ewe equiv�lent per acre to 2 . 5 ewe equivalen�s p e r a c r e . The m,·n e r c ons i d e r e d l and devel opment h a d b e en c ompl t� ted a t the t ime of t h e s ur vey . The s e c ond pha s e o f the development programme inYolvecl inc r e a s i n G the s t ocking ra t e on the potentially productive lan d . This ,,·as a chi ove d by r e t a ining mos t o:f the c1;e hog-ge t s and by buy i n g in t110 t ooth P erendale e1,·es . An increase o f 795 ewe equivalents ( 4 ) was achieved for a t o tal cash outlay of $ 950 . A comparison of the c o s ts for the two devel01)111ent s tages is given in table 5 · 3 · As s o c i ated with the s e c ond phase of development was a ( 4 ) FertiJ. i s er application 1vas no t increas e d on this are a . The annual fertiliser application i s JO t ons of aerial superphosphat e appli e d to a different paddock each year . A time lag of eight years exi s ts between applications . One utili s e a ll the g· L' "-' s s being grm•.TI on t h e p r o �l u c t i v e I land �-otal--r 950 G , l.j. o o 7 9 5 ·1 . 25 9 1 5 -i ---1 I 6 . 9 chance in the bre e d of s l w e v . C h evi o t rc-L.ms \\· ere ma t c d t o the Romney e 1\· e s to produc e f ir .:; t cros s P erend<:tle o·h· e lambs . P erendalc rnms i\· e r e t h e n. mated t o the resultant t 1-.·o t o o t h m\·e s . The change ,,· a s an attempt t o improve lambing; percentage s , reduce stock lo s s e s and grow bigger sheep. 5 . 3 . 2 C onc lus i ons The deve lopment progranm1e provides an exampl e of' poor allocation of devel opment f'inance . Borrowed money was initially us ed t o develop unproductive land . As sho,,n in table 5 - J this was a c o s t ly process in relation to the s to ck increas e s achieved . I n any development prograiiiDle the s tarting point should be the complete utilisation of all grass being groHn . This involves adding more s to ck and results in an in�ediate increas e in financial returns . The next s t ep should 1 20 be t o gr oK E_to r_� gras s on the ex i s ting prouuctive lan d , Thi s i s a l e s s c 0 s t l y m e -r.ho d o i� d eve l o pmen t t ha n c l e <•. r :i n:;· land o f' The author b e l i e v e s t h a t s t o r;e t,,-o o f thi s p r o � T <'t mn t e s hould h a v e b c c�n imp l emen t e d f' i r s t , Deve l o pment slwuld tlwn have h e e n C O ll c cn t r a ·t c d o n the a l r e ady pro duc t i ve l an d . S ubdivi s i on a :nd annu <'l l fert i l i ::;er appl i c a t ions -��-o t l l cl h G. Y e r e s u l t e d in a gr e a t e r increas e in s to ck n l w i b e r s t ll c:m t h a t achi eved by c l e a r i n g t <:nthin u . I mp l emcn t in g s t a g e t\\ 0 o f' t h e a c -r.ua l p r o g r a mm e I�:i. r s t K c u l d a l s o h o v e i n c r e a s e d t h e p o s t tax c a s h s urp lus . Thi s in t u rn \\c. u l d have provi ded inc ome f' o :r c r o •·: i nc; m o r e c; r a s s an d r e duc e d the a J n o n.:l t o :C o ff' :farm c a p i t a l r e qui r e d. :for d ·, - p l o p m c n t P r o {'T�n, ;· n e J n c r C! i'l :"- 0 S Y e <-) r ------ I I I F e r t i l i .s e r ( t ow� S e e d ( lbs ) SubcliYi s i on ( cha ) 1 9 65 r 8 7 1 9 G 6 , 9 6 7 �6 8 +�6 9 I 1 7 5 s3 -t-70 I B r e e d ing e \ : e s She ep e1,·e e quiva Bre e ding c o •i:s Cat t l e eKe equiY To t a l ewe e quiva El·: e e quiva l en t s potentially produc tive acre ilJ. s ) l on-r.s a.J..ent s l o n -r s per 1 6 0 0 1 600 1 L: oo 2! 1 0 8 20 1 8 J 5J.5 :+ 7 Go J 9 7 !.j 37 2!+ l .5 3972 2 . 3 J , 8 1 050 40 J 1 00 J J )O I J 200 J8J8 4 1 /" 0 3 9 28 7 8 80 60 I 4 S i� s L� 9 4 63 )+3 ?2 � 7 1 9 4 3 8 8 I 3 . 9 )..j. . 2 J . 9 I n the s e\·en y ea r s o:f development ther e Kas an increa s e o f 2 9 80 E . E . Thi s repr e s en t s a 1 7 0 per c e n t increa s e in c arrying capacity . The 1 9 6 9 figures for s t o ck wint ered s how a de c r e a s e o f 33 1 E . E . This ��-as no t due t o the inabi li ty o f the farm t o carry 4 . 2 E . E . per acre . I t was an attempt by the partners t o reduce c o s ts in order t o be able to c ontinue farming . The c o s t of the deve lopment prograDIDle on a per ewe equivalent increas e bas is is approximately $ 8 . There has been a number o f management changes as s ociated with development . Shorn t\o;o tooth wethers 1vere bought for �; J t o $ l1. and put on the b u c k bl o c k o :f tmprocluc tive l and . Dy d o inc, t hi s a p :J :r 1.. i on o :f t lti s b l o c k has b e en brought i n t o Pl' oduc i.: i on , a s ·t hey c o uld a l s o b e u.t i l i :.:: e cl on t l w f'r ont t;,'o b l o c ks ·. ·o y e ::t r s a:f·t e r the s to cL:ing :c ep , ( vi ) ( vi i ) ( vii. i ) ( ix ) A s ud d en large increas e in s t o ck i n g r a t e in order t o improYe pas ture production can t empo rari ly affe c t s t o ck p e rfo rman c e . N o r e c o�p l e t e uti lisa tion of the ava i l a b l e :f e e d wi l l result in higher s tocking rates on s om e :farms . The cheapest me thod o f development i s s t ock increases on exi s ting product ive land and the mos t expens ive is clearing the land o :f we eds and bush . The ,,-oo l pric e has a marked influence o n the rate and amount o f development that can be done out of income . ( x ) Careful thought mus t b e given t o a development 1 JJ p r o gramme and the pro gr;crnrne de c i de d u p on mu s t be 1' l e x i b l c� e n o ug h t o a1 J. o;, mo cl i f'i c a t i on.s to b e m a d e a s o.Jd j t i o : n .:t l i n f o .r.nw. t i o11. b e c o m e s av<-•.:i. l a b l e . ( . \ , X l ; D c: ve l o pmen i; c a n b o hind e r e d. by s h o r t t E� :CJJJ f 'in<:, n c i a l a r r El J.f; O l ! t c n t s b e c a u s e the p o s t t < t x c a ::-; h s ur-p l u s i s u s e d -G o r e p ay t h r.:� l o an r a t J w r tllan b c int:; u s e d :fo r l>" o r tlnihi l e d c Y e l o p m e n t . C J L\.PTF!l SIX G . 1 I n t r o clu c t i on I t is p o s s i b l e to (l ivi de I I o r cn: h c n u ;) h i l l c o L:�·t -r r ' i'a.rms int o :L o t H' m a :i . n c l a s s e s ;.J e c ordlnc: -� o t h e: s t c c;e of d e: \ c;·: Zealand 1i i 1 1 b e n b l e t o e xp o r t mos t o:f the e x p e c t e d i n c r e a s e in l a;nb p r o du c t i o n over t h e n o :� t t e n � e a r s a t pre s ent pri c e s , i t s e ems l i k e ly t ha t t h e r e �i l l Le f�voura b l c m a rke t orpo ]:-tuni t i e s :for beef' in t h e n e x t. decade . The s e f a. c t o r s s 0 e m e d to indi cate t h a t pre s ent pri c e s K e r e l i k e l ) t o c ont i.nuo in to the :future . HoKever , in o rd e r t o remove s e as ona l fluctua t i ons i t w a s d e c ide d to us e the average of the pas t thr e e years 1 price s . The s e pric e s are li s t ed in table 6 . 1 . 6 . 2 . 2 C o t; t s Pri ce s paid by primary producers have ri s en by 2 3 p er c ent in the last ten years ( JJ ) . I :f ri sing input price s are us ed ( 4 ) The three y ears us ed ,\·ere 1 9 67/68 , 1 9 68/69 and 1 9 69/70 • . 1 37 durin� deve l o pment i t i s nec e s s a ry t o recalcul a t e t h e L D s e y e a r ±' o r each year o :f dc-v G lopmcnt . d u vel opmen -c . The c o mpu t u t i o n a l i J u r d c• J 1 i_ s iu c r c : t s e d hy a J. l o 1vinc- .f o r t hi s bu-L i t d o e s :i.nui c a t c t J J c e f f'c c t: o.f inc r c: c: :=; ln2,· c o s t t> on clc'! \ · e l o pJ l ten t . ( ') ) A E.; t l w c ompu t e r p r o t;ram - · us e d by i� h e a u tl J O r c o u l d n o t :rw .. udle rib inc- iupu "L c o s t s a C OlJ s t an t l e-v c: l o f' c o s t s 1·.- a .s cl. S e d in this s t u dy , T h e c o s t s us e d K e r e tho s e 1\hi ch i:l pp l i e d t o I-I o r o ldl.ellu;J hi l l c ountr-y 6 . 2 . J '1'<1 x <.t i; i on f'arm e r s . . L 4 cl 6 9/-o ( 6 ) ln t n e: � � 1 ' s e a s on . C a l cu l � t i o n s o :f t a xa t i o n 1·: e r e m a d e on t h e premi �; e ·cl1<1 t a J 1 in c ome a c c r u e d t o the f'ann o \\·n e r . The l e ve l o :l t axabJ. e inc ome v; u. s cnlcula t e d a s J' o l l m·: s : ­ Taxa b l e inc ome ( ? ) = Gros s i n c ome . .! c hange in l ive s -r o ck s t andard -v a l u e - ( tax d e duc t i b l e expens e s ( 8 ) + pers onal a n d f'aEd ly exempt ions �r life insuranc e premiums ) • The a s swnptions made c on c erning fac t o rs affec t ing t h e l eve l of taxable income are de s cribed in the fo llowing subs e c t i ons . ( 5 ) Used to financially evaluate the feas ibility of the development programmes . - ( 6 ) A development p!.�ogranmlB sho,,n t o be marginally profi table under thes e c o s ts c ould be unprofitable under higher c o s ts . ( 7 ) This t erm can be defined as that sum o f money which i s sub j e c t to income tax. ( 8 ) Thes e include s t o ck purchas e s , farm working expens es , intere s t and certain items o f development expendi ture •. �---·�-:-��-�-d_u_·�-t----- - ------ -�-__ ] ___ :_c i-� i-� _r_J 1��-c e-s-1 ( $ ) \'! o o J. - p o r p o 1.u1 cl S tore 1<.11llUS - C 1·i O S F a t L.<.mb s C ul l t l\·o t o G t h e1-; o � l'·l i x e d a g e d ewe s F i vo y o a r OI\'G S F a t cull 01·.· c s S tore Cattle iV e an c r s t e e r s lv e a n o r h e i f e r s Cu:L l C O i i S C u l l bul l .s 0 . 2 2 . :) 1 1 ' 00 J . t:so _5 . 00 5 . 00 Lj_ . 00 J , 20 2 . 5 0 Js . oo JJ . OO 6s . oo 1 25 . 0 0 1 3 9 6 . 2 . 4 The l i v c s l; o ck s t c:m cL 1 rd v o J. u P s l i S e d. in the developl!lent in t <'• bl e G . 2 . The u s e o f ni l y; t lu c s i·! a s n o t. p o t; s i b .l c b e c aus e the ovCtluat ion p r o c,- r ztm c o nl cl 11. o t utilis e -lhC I J t , 6 . 2 . 5 I t w a s de c i de d t o a s s wn o p e r s ona l e x cn� t i on s o f $ 7 85 . The s e exem p ti ons correspond to t l w s e of a m F� .rr i o u m a n 11 i th t11 0 children . 6 . 2 . 6 J.., j_ f' e I- 1 J :s n r a n c o P r c m i w n s A figure o f $ 250 �a s u s e d as the value for life insuranc e premiwns . Tld s figure r()pres ents the avcr<:lt_:: n annual p r omiwn p a i d by the thr e e reprc s c;ntative farme r s . Ne 11r 7: e ala�nd inc ome tax laws a l. l o 1·.' certuin i t ems of developmeu t expendi ture t o b e d e duc t o d from t axa b l e in c owe over a number of y ears . Such a provi s i on ena b l e s taxation t o be m inimi s e d and c a s h resources to b e cons e�ved , ( 1 o ) However in thi s s tudy the computeri s e d evaluation program us ed d i d not c ontain provis ion for the deve l o �nent expendi ture to be spread forward . Hence deve lopment exp:endi ture w a s deduc t ed f'rom t axable income in the year in whi ch i t o c curred, ( 9 ) S e e glossary • . ( 1 0) Two bas ic principles are involved vi z . the more even the am1.ual taxable incomes the lower the total tax paid over a period and showing negative taxable incomes is rarely a s ound practice , The s e points are explained in de tai l by If . G . Payne in D i s cus s ion Paper N o . Jl� , Depart"JlH�nt o f Agricultural Economic s and Farm :Hanagemen t , Has s ey Univers i ty . Tab l e 6 . 2 L i v c .�; t o c k S tnwLtrd I.T o. l u c s -- --..-- ·· · ·-· ·-··--·----·----- �·- ··-�· .. --- --·-·-... --·- �--- ----- - C J. <;_ s .s - o :i:-� t o�: k --- --- ----- -r- S t .�J d a r d-\' . c J u�- -, 1-- - ----- ---- --- ----- -------- - -- ,---- --- - - -- ---__J I $ I I s j·) u (' p - , � 1 1 . l t:: c "' J • o o I f' e ; ,� , -·- �L c' c n t t J 8 o n o y e il. r I 2 0 . 0 0 I tK o y e a r < nH.l o l cJ o r _5 0 . (JO I hu LL s 1 00 . 00 '----------- --- --- ---------- ·- ___ _j ____ __ ___ _ I n thi .s s t� u dy p c rs ow:d dra\\'in{:;s o f ' $ 2000 ( 1 1 ) Th L::; � mu i s gre::tter t l w n the pers onal clr<.n-.-i .lJ.gs o f s on:e hi l l C O L"!.J.--: t r y :Cu.rmc r s . H o w e v e r tl1e ;:tu t h o :c b e .L i e ",·e �_; thc..-c; tl1 i 2 CJ >� ; :) Uil t o f mo; �.e-y i s r e qu i r e d :f o r & s a t :L s :L'a c; L u ry s t anci<'crd o:f 1 :;__ vi n e , m o n e y r r o u c o::1.s u.• ;:p t i on t o d evelopment by rcducint, p o r s o �i z.J l clr a x i n c s (!_ ,_,_rin g c le;,-e l o pmen t . I i' tll i s pro c edure i s ;:t do p t c d then t h e d e v c < L o pm e n t p r o g r a mm e is in e:ffe c t re ceiving -�!.!: int e r e s t LL' e e 1 ,_ 0 1 1 r e Da v a hl e l o an . f'or thi s reason the l eve l --·-·---.. -·------·-· ____ .,. ____ J_.....c. ___ ----� 0 1� p c r s o na l drm,· :i.ngs i s as swned to remain c ons tant tbroughou t thG devel opmen t period . 6 . 3 �epre s entative F a nn F This farm embodies the problems of farmers who have recently ( 1 2 ) purchas ed 1.-mdevel oped Horowhenua hill country ( 1 1 ) This swn d o e s n o t include taxation or life insuranc e payments . Thes e payments were allowed for a s s eparate i tems in the development plans . ( 1 2 ) \{ ithin the las t f'ive to ten years . 1 l.j 1 ' . ( 1 J ) propcrt1 e s . F a l l i11 g inc ome ha s reduced not only t he .s u 1. · p l. v s i n c o m e a ··,r : !. i Lt.1 , J. o :f' o r :fu tu:c c d c v e l o LJ'tJ 'll t . F or t l w s o f'<., :nu o r s ::; u rp l u .s :i n c o m c i c; t h e ma j or �J ourc o o f d o ve l O fl incn-:.; c ap i t c:t J. , "\.n}' n:l cluc t i on i n tl' d. s .s c r i o u s l-y o. :f :C o c t s the <.: b i l i ty t o i n C J' O ZJ. S O p r od11.C c i on C.".. ll d main. t a in lH..: t i:n.c oll:t) , On t lH: s e p r o p e r t i e s t u ·t a l p r o du c t i o n c an b e incroa.:;od in one of thre e 1·.· a y s Yi z . by int ons i f'i c Qtion , by doYelopj nc unpro •.>LC t i ve l an d or by c ombining in t on s i J'ica tion 1·:i t h l and development . F o r t h i s r c u s o n thre e d eve l o pment prograirune s ,,·e r e d e v i s e d an d cYa lua t c d . 6 . J . 1 The t o t a l a r 0 a o f' t h e .[';1.rm i s 1 , 2 6 0 il c r e s , Thi s i s made up o f : - 700 acre:s o f nat ive pas ture e . e; . bro1o1 t op an d d anthon i a JO a c r e s o f s cn;n pas ture 1 50 G. C 1.' 8 S o r m a r:.. ulc a 1 JO a c r e s of f' e rn and s pars e s crub 1 00 acres o .r rangiora and pw1ga l t 0 acres o f s c a t t e r e d t auhinu JO a c r e s of s c a t t e r e d gors e JO acres o f native bush 50 acres of was t e land e . g . buildings , creeks . O f the t o ta l area , 1 , 080 acres ( 86%) i s p otentially product ive . ( 1 3 ) Hos t o f the farm i s bet \veen 900 fe e t and 1 , 000 fee t above Random survey farm nwnbers 1 0 , 1 7 and 1 8 and cas e farms B and D are examples o f thi s type of property. s e a l evel . 1 �- 2 The highes t p e ak i s 1 , 20 0 �e e t a n d the lowest point 1 00 f e e t , The t o p o {_', l'et p hy o .f t h e fu r;n vari e s :Crom e a ::;- ·y hi ll c o tu1 -Lry to s t o e p b r o k c.n Lm tl 1d. tll HlJm e r c nu; [;"Ll l l :i. e s . D e s p i t e t h i s a LL p ;J. r t s o i' t h e f;_:.rm ci J_' e r c a lli ly a c c e s s :l i > l e . T h e main a c c e s s i s e i ther hy in t ernal t r a c k s o r 1Jy :c o a d c.; long the s ou t h e rn s i d e o _f the f;:u'm . O f tlw p r o cl u c t ive l and o n ly 80 .:� o r e s can be t r a v e r s e d by a 1-;he e l t r a c -t o r . The annual av e rage rainfall i s L� S i n c he s o n the J . o·h·er s lo :� _ ...: and 60 inches on the higher s lopes . Dry peri ods o f s i x t o e :7_ gh t w e e k s are common but prolonged droughi .s ' th . Buildings and yards e . g . wo o lshed , hayshed , sheep yards are generally adequate for their purpos e . The addi tion of ano ther s et o :f sheep yards ,,Tould , hol\ever , facilitate quicker and eas ier s t ock 1vork . B o th the cattle and s heep policies involve breeding '\vi th the s al e o:f s tore s tock . Sheep sales include s tore wether lambs , surplus ewe lambs and cull e1·res , lvhile ea t t le sales include 1veaner s teers , s urplus wean er heifers and cull c ows . The lambing and ca lY in G' percentages o b t a i n e d u n tb i s f::� rm c o r r �' �; JJ O nd t o t h e cl i "' t r l c 1: a ·v e r n. r � e s , b c in e- 8_) 1-' e r c <..' n t .. r ing- and d o ckin � \·thi l e s ome c on ·c r ,� c. t f en c e rs have be en emp l o y (; cl . The O i\Tl c r i s a war r i e d H e h a s m-.·n e d the f a rm f' o :.c f i Y G -y r.: a r s and i s a capable and experi enced harch-;orkinc; farmcr . During- the t i m e he has b e en on -c h c f'arm he has e r e c t e d c a i:. t l c <:-t.nc.l sheep yards <:• nd bui l t a ln ::t dinc; ra c e and a .s J1 e e p d i p . :Ln n cl cl i t i on h e ha s r i ll5 f' e n c c d the p r o p e r t y a n d e re c t c d ll! o r e t h ;u:. 1 0 0 chains of int ern<:l l f(�nc ine; . S c rub a n d tm:t.hinu h J ) and casual lzLbour \ "- aro emp l oy e d until i t becomes ec onomi caLly fea s ibl e to a cl cl anothe r l abour uni t . c ontrClc t Por thi s developmeni; proc.;raJIFne the i n c r e a s e in s t ock nlUnbers i s insu:ffi c i cnt t o jus t i :fy this , To imp r o \'O the labour productivity a mo tor b ik e i s purcha s e d in the s e c ond y e a r o :f deve l o pmen t and an additional s e t o:f sheep y a r ds erected in year three . The us e of a mo tor bike improYes labou:c mobility , The time involved in s to ck ( 2 1 ) 0;.1e f.'.urvey farmer main t a ined that on hi s farm in i t s pres ent s ta ge o f deve lopment h e can 1dnter J E , E . per acre . I lo,,·ever , if thes e s tock Kerc s old and ewe s bought in then only 2 . 0 E , E , per acre c ould be wintered , ( 2 2 ) This i s a s omei,'hat higher labour produc tivi ty than i s being achi eved a t pres ent ( 9 65 breeding ewes and 6 5 bre eding cm,·s p e r labour uni t ) . HoKever , many survey farmers maintained that one permanent labour uni t c ould manage these s to ck nwnbers . ( 23 ) The reliance on casual labour c ould be reduced by allow­ ing for s tock increas e s in wethers rather than breeding ewe s . This would als o improve the flexibili ty of the development programme e specially in periods of drought . However wool i s the only s ourc e o f income from wethers . With the pres ent low prices for wool i t is difficult t o jus ti:fy the inclusion of 1vethers in a development progranune , 1 lt 8 o p e ra t i ons e . c; . drenching , i s r e du c e d by bu i l d in g �t s e t o i' s l J e o p -y a r d s a d j a c en t t o the n md_ y d e v e l o p e d lai1.CL This means a dcU t j on a l E l..l] l _p l en;en L <:.t ry i'e e d ll a s t o be p:r- o v :i_ Lle cl :f o r t h e c a t L J e , o r c r o .f C: \·,· e s rc tainc cl in the s e c o n d , third and f' o u r t h y e ar s of d ev e l opment fa l J.. s s h o r t o f the number requirecl . t o maJz e u p F e r t i l i s e r i s a n importnnt d e , · e l o pn : c n t i t em acc ountil �&; for a p p r oxima t e ly 5 1 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l d e v e l o pm e n t expenditure . D e ve l o pmen t c o s t s reach n p e a k in the third a n d f o u r t h years of development � h e n man�za s crub i s cut and addi tional she ep yards ere c t ed , In t h e las t t,,-o y e a r s of' development 1 capi tal expendit ure i s c onfined t o fert i l i s er appli cat i on . 6 . 4 Financ i al Evalua t i on Data from the deve lopment programme was punched on cards and financially evaluated by Gardner ' s c omputerised program . In practice i t is likely that bre eding ewe s would be purchas ed only in year three . I n years two and four the small number o f ewe s required to mee t the targe t number would be obtained e i ther by retaining more ·f'i ve year ewes or by culling l e s s s everely amongs t the mixed aged e'i,res . Tab l e 6 . s S t o ck P c· r :f o t ' J J > e ts o .r c ondi t i on s . ( . \ J . I n d eb t f':t' (! e s i tua t i o.tL ( i i ) Th :j_ s p r o c e dn r e W <::I S a n a t t e mp t t o s ] J 0\1 tb.C! :in :f.1.uen c (� o :C :!. a rm iHdcbt cdncs s on the pro:i.i ·I� s ec tions dis cus s in .s o n : G dC' t 1 00 ( E 1 0 ) 1 2 1 9 6 7 6 2 7 1� 6 .2 6 8.< 8 I :'J ) (j 9 - 80 ( E 8 ) 1 2 1 9 6 8 7 2 9 J 5 cl 8 l t 7 h i J 1! G 7 1 7 h 2 0 I 7 0 ( E7 ) 1 2 1 96 9 2 '7 9 J0 6 6 " ,., ., J ..J I :2 9 '! 7 :2 G ·i J O 60 ( E6 ) 1 2 1 9 6 9 9 1 9 2.) 1 J I 2 1 1 ;2 2 7 7 J lt 8 1 t O s o ( E5 ) 1 2 1 9 6 1 0 it 6 1 1 9 6 0 9 5 ., ·- ,...... r:: ' I _> _> I ·; ') 5 0 Note - ( 1 ) T o t a l expend i ture d o e s n o t inc lude l l cr s on < � l c.lrv il l (;'S . T h e p o s t i; ; 1 x c < t s h s urp lus i s av;her e qni ty l ev e l s , t h e p o s t t a x cas b . S1Jrplus is [;" r e a t c r t l . �ul. t ll.o c o rr e s pon dinG fig·uro s at .l o . - .r. equi ty leveL:; , offs et the r e du c e d t a x p a ym ent s . C ons equently for r e p r e s ent a t ive f'3 rJ!l I' the b a s e y e ar CC:t Sh surplus d e c l in e s I�r O !'l $ 4 , 5 6 9 a t E 1 0 t o $ 1 , 7 J5 a t ES . Thi s m e n n. s that !�o r E.5 farm developme-nt '''i ll probably hav e t o be f:i.n a��l'�_!':.2_ttirr. result the t o t <. 1 l o · · e r d r a :f t r c q1.d r e d t o :fircanc e t l1 o o :f y e z. r four , r C' s u l t s in an A t a s i x p e r c en t rLl G O o :f in t s r e s t t l 1 .L s i n t e r e s t ch.:n·t;e of $ 220 in y e r; :c' :fi-.-e , ( J '� ) Tll e las t t1:o y e a r s o i' phy s i c a l development in,·o l\-e s nw 1 1 s to ck inc r e a s e s and f; mo l l f'er t i l i s er inputs . A s a. resul t c a s h s u r p l us o s are g e n o r � : t e ll and t a xa t i on b e co m e s a mo re s i gn i :f i c an t c hetr[;c . The t a x pa i d i n the s e y ears i s Ereater t h an that p a i d prior t o de:vc lopmc.n t , T h e ca · h surplus es a r e ava i l ab l e t o re pay t he overdr '> I �"- ' t ... \.. l I ! I J ' 6 7 0 I I ·• {, '7 , , l I I ' , ) I I ' l + l , o �:s __ j - ·--- -- I s o £ $ 2 , 000 o s � o J l J - _.. 0\ 1\) ] 1 6 3 6 . LJ . . 3 , 2 Thi s re s u l t s iH l e s s in r. onw bc inc�- avn i l z• l 1 . ! c; i'o r j n-v · c s t m c n t in farm d c Y c l opmcn t . TL.c c i' f u c t i s t o in c r C' :c s c t h e c i 1 ll o l· . n t o f' o f' :C f'ann c a p :i tal r e qui r e e l t o f i n o.n c e t lw dcvc J. o 1 > H ! C n 1; p r o g r (H ' 1 : n e . The (;l' e a t er t ll c a m o m1 t o 1� cl. obt lJ o f' o r e d c�v c l o pm cn t , t h e g r e a ·L c r the a m o l.m. t o :f o :ff' fanll c a p : i t a l r e qui r e d . ) . s t h e a 1 • 1 0 un i:; o f' o i' f f a rm c a p i t a l b o rr o � c d inc r e a s e s , s o G o e s t h e i n t e r e s t charge and the t ime required t o r e p a y ·L;l w b o r r o ''' e d. money . H e n c e a deve l opment p r o g r a m m e 1�1 i ch i s p r o f i t a b l e f o r a d e b t f r e e farlll s i t ua t i on m a y be inf<.'-as ib l e bc J. c , ,.- a c e r t a i n l e v e l o f f a r m equi ty . The efi' c c t o f farm i n d e b t e dn e s s on t h 2 :f i n an c i a l. requirements f' or thi s devel opmen t p r o g r amn 1 e are s un u: t o .ci s o d in t a b l e 6 . 1 1 . As s h o i1'TI in the t ab l e pers onal dra11ings o :f $ 2 , 000 a r e as sumed for a l l equi t·y l evel s except ES(?_:;) Data in table 6 . 1 1 r e v e a l s two important p o i n t s . Thes e a r c : - ( 35 ) ( i ) as :rarm equi ty de crea s e s the quan t i ty o f c :f f fE< rm c ap i tal required to :fina nce the deve lopment programme sub s tantially increas e s e . g . for E 1 0 $ 3 , 6 7 0 i s required ; :for E 5 $ 1 9 , i.J-83 . For the repre s entative farm the bas e year p o s t tax cash surplus i s $ 1 , 7 35 at a fi fty per c ent equi ty . I t i s like ly that a farmer i n thi s s i tuation would a t t empt to live on this amount of money . If he c ont inued to have pers ona l drawings of $ 2 , 000 then his to tal debt would be inc reas ed by $ 2 35 per annum during the devel opment prograrrL'11e . • 1 (} .'.;. T <� b 1 r:. 6 . 1 1 F r o r� r n. n l i l l <: O n (-: - T h 8 L f.fr! C"C o f "' "' ' ' ' '1 I nrJ P ·h ·[· e ;� r: e s s ___ ... __ ._______ --- -- ---·-·--- - ------�·-·--�-�----- r :Cqu i t·y -�r . .:: or,,�- -�- -- -�l a=�-��-: :11 ! �-�:� d��;t l.��- Ye<� -�-----,- --�1;_, _;-�-.--:un; I D r cn. i n c· :,; I n c u r r c ...l D u ri11 , _ ;· ( : ) 0Yc r·;J r a !.' t ( � . J E 1 0 E8 E7 E 6 E5 ?\ o t e s - D c v e l o u m n n t j I n t c· rc .':- i: --� ) I ---- -- ------'------ -r- ----- - -: "' ' I I

n r n n c e , ! ! I ( 2 ) (J ) ( 4 ) P e r s o n n l dr <-'.li i n c; s 1H: r e a r e p o s t t a x cash surplus . De ta i l ed f i n a n c i a l d a t a f o r c oll t o. i n c d i n a p p e n d i x G , p r o - d e v e l o p m e n t I e qu i ty l e v e l s l s 1 e q u a l t o t h e t h e Ya r :i. o u s _j ( i i ) int er8 s t becomes an impo �_�tant devel opment c o s t a t l ow equity leve l s e . g , i' o r· E 1 0 a m a x i mum c h a r G e o:f $ 220 is incurred . Thi s increa s e s t o $ 1 1 1 6 9 i:f the pro granuue is imp l ement ed under E5 . Repayment o f' borrmte d money begins in the :fi:fth year o :f develo pment :for E8 when a c ash surplus o:f $ 6 5 1 o c curs . Repayment does not com enc e unti l the s ixth year o :f deve lop- ment :for E6 and E? . For E5 i t i s not unt i l after the phys i cal development program e has been comp l e ted that repayment o:f borrowed capi tal commences . Thi s aspec t , toge the r with the greater amount o :f o :f:f :farm capital required and the larger int eres t payments c ombine to add t o the unattractivenes s o f the proe;ramme a t lo>v farm equities . 6 . 4 . � The Po s t Development Situatio� The pos t development budge t as swne s that onc e deve lopment has been comple t ed s tock nwnbers ;-.ri ll remain cons tant at 2 , l.j JO breeding ewes and 60 breeding cows . The budget indicates that as a result of development gro s s income ri s es by $ 4 , 27 6 . This rise in gros s income is accompanied by increas es in bo th taxation and the po s t tax cash surplus . The extent : . . thes e increas es is shown in table 6 . 1 2 . • Table 6 . 1 2 Programme One - P o s t Deve lopment Swnmary Equi ty Increas e In Increas e In Increas e In Gro s s Income Taxation From P o s t Tax Cash From Bas e Year Bas e Year Surplus From Bas e Year $ $ $ E 1 0 4 , 276 1 ' 055 844 E8 4 , 27 6 9 9 2 877 E7 4 , 27 6 9 44 9 25 E6 4 , 276 882 989 E5 4 , 27 6 800 1 , 06 9 The Profi tability of the Development Programme Gardner ' s program calculates the profitabili ty of development by c omparing the pos t tax cash surplus es during and after development with that of the bas e year . Thi s measure of profi tability results i n a pres ent value figure being determined for the programme . The analysis as sumes that the bas e year surplus is equal t o the level of pers onal drawings during development . While this as sumption may be 1 6 6 c orroc t f'or evalu.ation p u r p o s e s i t uocs no t a l ,,•ay s h o l d i n p r :.-:. c t i c u . F a r;.n o r s hav e t :co..cU. t t o n et .L ly d. C:Yl; l o p o. d. -L h c- i r LU.'llh o 1..:. t o .r in c ome force;oinc l J r c .s e n t c on t; 1.11JJ.P "L i on i n o r cl c� r to o b t n j_ n a hic;her f'u tu re income . 0 ['f' f'arm c �t } J l t a J. hd :_:.; o n l y lH:: cn b o rr o ,,· e cl 1d1.on the p o r t .L o n o f t he p o s t tax C ' t s h s u rp l u t:i diver t e d from c ons t.unp t :L o n t o devel opment cl o 0 .:; not m e e t t he deve l opment c o s t , F o r thi s r c c '< I $ (Yc"r ) _j I I I i I c A I � c A i l I c ! I '! I I i I I . , I ! n 1 8 J ·1 1 I ) . , r,. I ". 00 l1 1 " 0 " J , .1 " · 1 J 1 1 .1 � / ' ) t I ' � ,_ u . - ' ' , o ,_ J 1 G , C 5 ,'2 1 9 , H 7 7 I 9 , �J I I O j l O , OU I: i O j hJ :I ! 0 i · · I I I ! I I I ' I I I I -; c· - ·) I ·1 .., s 9 ( ·1 " o ., ·) 1 3 ·1 · -1· " 1 ·1 J I � .., ' · 1 ' ! I ' ) J ,_ ' ,_ 1 ) _) . J '- • V I I �· i . I l I I I l I Reduced :from I ,. 1 1. I i 1 $ 2 , 000 1 1 7 , 0 2 9 ·Ye I E5 I $ 1 , 7 J5 I _L_l 'l ? , .. I BJ L __ j ___ I�_LL Notes ..:. ( 1 ) ( 2 ) Us ed a s the l evel of' p c r s o n a l dra\r i n ( �·s du r i11 ,•�; cl c v c l o pw en t J' o r t l 1 \.: p t lT J ' o s c o l ' calc ulating pro .fi tal>i li ty in t u r n r s o r a p r c s c n t v a l u e . J .Il C .r C < t S C I n .i' o s t T: t ;.;: C < t ::; h S u r p _L u s 1• 'T' 8 7 7 Q " "" 1... ' I { (') r) r­;; ''- _) ( 3 ) -- -----·---- , .. J -- - -- I -·--·- ---- --------- _______ _j A = 6 . 0 per c e n t i n t e r n s t . 1 3 = 6 . 5 p e r c 1 ; n t i n t 1 ' r c s t . C = 7 . 0 p e r c e n. t .i n t c J · c ::; t . ·*' D e n o t e s pay l>a c k u o t ;; c Jt l e v c <.i wi t.J Li_n n l n c t e < ' rl .Y < � ; · r � ; . -' C\ '-.:; 1 70 An <:� ddi c j onu J c <�. s h s u.r p l u s d o c;> s n o T. o c c u r u; d: i l y e < l J ' s o v o n b u t from thi s j l o .i n t o n it s l o\;ly i !:. c :t.'c' a s c ."' c. :.., t h e o •.-c• :;'clr o :f t i�- A t chi :=: p o i : 1 t � 1 0 , 2 .? ) :L3 s -c i l 1 o 1. � t: s t andj Li; ha.s not b e en r c- a l i s o c.L I .l t�1o b a s e ·y e a r s urplus i s clo c r e a s c J -c: c> $ 2 � .l� 6 (' t h en o n ly to f ':Lnan c e cl c v e l o pw e n. t , T he f i gure s h o i·: s that thi s s u m i s r e p a ·L d l,y t he e n d o f' The �ddi t i ona l p o � t t ax ca s h s ur p l u s t h a � oc curs a s a r o s ul t , . � n � � ( 1 9 ) o :f n e Y i'• .l o pm c n t 1 . s · .' o ; ; . - the ba s e y e a r p o s t t <'tX c a s h s urp :l_ns i s r e d u c e d t o �· 2 l 0 0 0 then the a. m o un t o f o f�f' :f a rm c a rd. tal l' e c_; ni r e d dccrc.:1s c s t o $ 9 , 88G ( at G� int eres t ) . Thi s l o a n i .<::: r e p a i d by t h e e n d o f y e a :c t en . Ta b l e 6 , 1 h s hows t h a t f'or E6 the r e du c t i o n o f' per:::; onal d r aw i n g s t o 8 2 , 000 and an aru1ua l inve s tmen t o f' $ 27 7 i s insuf:ficien t t o achi eve r e p a yment o :f the borro�ied m o n ey ,,·i thin ninete en years . S imilarly the debt s ervic int; charge s :for E5 are t o o great to allO\v development to be financed entirely ( 38 ) ( 39 ) This s tat ement implies that the farmer continues t o have p ers onal drawings o f $ 3 , 467 after phy s i cal development has been completed . The figure shows an increas e of $ 1 , 87 7 . However from this figure must be subtrac t ed $ 1 , 000 . This i s the differenc e between the ac tual pre-devel opment po s t tax cash surplus ( $ 3 , 4 6 7 ) and that us e d ( $ 2 , 4 6 7 ) for pers onal drawings in the pres ent value calculati on . 1 / 1 j' C' (t J:-' S " lx• c omc s < m. i.mp o r t. a.n L c c i t o r i on in d e c i ding ·\\·h e t h e r t J t e d eve l o pm e n t pro t;-r,muHu 11i. LL b e i mp l c rn c n t c cl . :Cin.anc e cl p a r t ly o u t o :f i n c o : :- -· then :f o r E ? the JW' ximum. o-.-c rclr�l :f t re q u i r e d i s � 1 2 , 89 6 ( 6 . 0�; in i c r , s t n:ne ) and f o r I: /3 $ 9 , 87'/ ar. d $ ·1 ·1 . 9 2 6 , :L o r p e r � o n a l dra11· i n cs during d e v o l o pmc, n c. o f $ 2 , 000 <'tn.d p e r s ona l i t y , p a s t c xp c:- r i en c e <.l. n d f'n t u r n c xp e c t a 1 .· i o n s t he s 2 n : a y o r may n o t b e <:1 c c e p t ab l o o Y o r d r a :f t. lev('" l s . The d e '\·e 1 o pmcn t p r o g r < um : 1 e i s r e l a t i ve ly ill!:- e n s :!. t i Y e t o c han[:; u s in in t e r e f.;; T ( di s c oun t ) r a t e b c t,,· e en 6 , 0 <:.•.ncl '( , 0 p e r c en t , Thi s aspec t i s i l l u s t ra t e d by d CJ. t a in t a b l e 6 , 1 �- . The e f :fe c t on the max imwn o-.-erclraf' t a n d t h e payback. p e r i o d l S ins i cni .f i c <'lnt f o r :C8 a n d E7 . A 1 tho ush the magyJi t ude o f' the pre s en t value i s ad •ers e ly a:f:fe c t ed by rai s ing the intere s t rate , ( I ' the progranune s t ill remains pro.fitable · I O ) at the higher rate o f intere s t , The analy s i s has sho·wn that :for the owner of the repres entative farm thi s development programme is financially infeas ible , The programme would be feas ible if hi s t o tal ( 40 ) In the s ens e that the evaluation shows a pos it ive pres ent value as a result of inves ting bas e year po s t tax cash surpluse s in the deve lop111ent progra.'11ll1e . 1 7 2 de b t H � s less t lEnl thirty p e r c cmt o f' t J H� Y<' 1-,_w o _f his as s e L s . i s l; o o lt.i c;h . T h e p r o gT <::I mJ n c w o u :t d on} y l! C' u_11.cl e r t ::J L:.e n hy ·t; ] J i s o f' e q_ui ty the w a x i 1 : mm o v e .�� clj_'a f' t in c u r .c e d i s l c s s than �: 1 0 1 000 , 6 . h . 6 The fertil i s er S lJ_bs i dy announ c e d in t h e ·1 9 '7 0 budg�..- l, m e a n s a subs i dy of five d o l l a r .::- . I I o1v e v e r cl u e to t a xc:L t i on t h e real va l u e o f t h e s ubs i dy 1-.' i l l h e" l e s s t h �< n fi\"e d o l l ar s tl t o n . D e s p i t c t hi s t h e suhs i d _y i s l ikc: ly t o ,-, :r re c t 1-l v J f e a s i b :i J L t;y o f dcve lop!Hcnt s in c e .f e r t i l i s e r i s a ma j or input in Jnany dev e J. op n 1 c n t programmes . A s tJH:; pri ce o f' :ferti l i s er at the f'a:;:m ga t o is l o 11' C r e d by the subsidy the t o tal development exr; endi ture in any one y e ar wi l l a l s o � e r e duc e d . Thi s will ei ther de c r e a s e t h e amo1m t of o ff farm capi t a l required to financ e deve l o pm en t , or increas e the cash surplus after tax . In the former cas e the interes t c hare;e on borrowed money ��·i ll be reduced and in the lat ter cas e the amount o f' tax paid will be increas ed . Table 6 . 1 5 outlines the s e aspe c ts for s ix years o f development • . The table indicates that for year one of deve lopment and for all equi ty l evels except EB , the financial gain from the fertilis er subs idy is equal to the value of the fertiliser subsidy . This is be cause tax is no t paid and overdraft interes t i s no t incurred . In years two t o Table 6 . 1 5 Programme O n e - The EJ..Cc c t o J. the :rcrtili scr Subs i dy on A;m ua J O v c r d ::- � 1 r:- e P_ l"'C).£i r�::.o� n t2 Value of the Fertiliser subs idy $ Reduction in Annual overdraft $ Increase in cash surplus $ Reduct ion in overdraft iritcres t $ D-�vel opment Year I I Equity I Da s e ! P o s t E8 E7 E6 E5 E8 E7 E6 E5 E8 E7 E6 J65 lJ 9 5 5 L1 5 6 '1 5 650 5 L�5 5 25 I 505 ( I 1 N . A . '-� 8 3 '+ 95 L� 9 5 L� 9 5 5 7 h 575 5 7 5 5 75 67 8 6 7 9 6 '7 9 G .so I 7 5 LJ I 7 5 5 755 7 5 5 I 1 L:. I 5 1+ 9 I 5 2J- 9 I ( 5 1 5 ( !\ . A o ( I I L 6 ' ;_. � I ) --t ,- ..... ') 2 I - - -- I - - � �) 1 j l I 2 ! ,:_. 2 6 5 - - i - I - 4 5 8 I /.j I :J) I 2 3 J_ 2 s 6 - - ! - - - !.j '7 o ·2 t:; \l 2 8 8 - -· I - L - - - ! J 'l 0 I i I i I I 1 0 4 I 1 LI 8 '1 7 5 I � JO I r; ; , I 0 5 I 1 5 0 1 82 I \ l N . A . 1 ( N . A . �o I 61-1 1 0� _ : �o I i � i 1 ( i-, . A . 1 ( _) 0 ' G 5 1 (): y I I )0 i I 0 J I ( 1--------+------t---! - - I I ---�--1 E5 I � Increas e in I I I i Taxation $ E8 ·1 1 9 . 1 2 I - 1 - -- 2 1 1 "- 28J. i :: J-0 3 12 E 7 ., 0 0 - I -· - - �! ;; :? I :2 _') :; i :.' '! 1 .::; EG '7 ') - - I - - I ., (-; �: i �? (, i '!(! ') ''-'-' 1 E5 7 7 _ _j_ -· ! __ -=--._ .1 __ - -=-J-� SI .J _j ___ � f'our w h e n ovcrdraf't :i n t e r e s t l:w c o m c s lKty a b J e t h e v a lue o :f t h e s ul> .·d. dy is e q u a l t o L h c' i' c rt i l j :::· e r s ubs j d y 1 1 lus ·c 11 c r c d u c c i o n is [�·r e u t e r th<:m t h e Yalue o f' t h e sub.-.; i cly . finnncial [;::l in :fr o lll the E'. ubs :L <..ly i E:; l e s s thau t ll e Y ·�t l n c O l� t h e s u h s i d y . Thi s i s b C' C ment taxa t i on c l<:1 ims thir ty-three per c en L of' the s u b s i dy a t E tl , Af'ter deve lop- wen t t a xa t i on accomJ.t; s :Cor f'orty-s i x per c en t o :f t h e:� subs irJy . F o r E? the c orresponding :f i gu r e s a r <:J t\,·en t y - e i gh t: per c ent an cl rorty-- thre e p c:: 1 · c ent . This Pw an s thC�.t :f a nn e r s hho l 1 a v e low :[arm e qui t i e s w .i.. l l gain p e r t on the mo s t frol ll the subs i dy , However the s e farmers Gen era l ly ca1u1.o t afford to apply lc::.re:e quantit i e s of �ert i l i s er even if it is de s i rable to d o s o . Hence :farmers in the h igher incol!le b r a c k e t s \dl.o annua l ly app l;.' large quanti t i e s o f :fert i li s er \vi l l in t o ta _l receive the mo s t benefit from the subs idy . The :fertiliser subs idy reduces the overdraft required t o finance development and increas e s the po st tax cash surplus which is available to repay borrowed capital . This mea.ns that the time required t o repay the borrowed c apital wi ll be reduced . In addition , the magnitude o :f the pres ent value figure 1vill be increas ed , the maximum overdraft will be reduced and the post tax cash surplus \vil l increas e . 1 7 .5 p r o t; r mm ; t c , TJ w cl ;;_ ,_ , ,_ :i. n n t. h l c· G . 1 () ( �_(1 \ ·'1 � j 1 I - - [- ')'' .-. � - ,. . � �- 1 ' ' ' - e 11 0 .: -y; _.___ c- . ' I _ .t. _ . .::;. _. . 0 t.• \,; ;::. l.. t ... �... . >:'I _, _Lj ._ l. ;;::;> " il l' C r c: q u i. r e d t o r c· p �;- :.· t h e 1J o i" l' CJ 'i _· e d m on oy un d t h � H �l x i n t L1.:ll o v e r d r a f t i n c u r r e d i kc ].d� on , ,,· o u. J_d c a u s e t h e o h'n c r of' t h e c a s e f'i:.'lrm t o re j e c t i.. he d e \ e l o pmen t p r o gra.;m�t c . 6 . i+ . 7 S 1.n1 • E: .::::. r ·\---.. ·---·--"""'- The ma in p o in t s f' r o n; t h e an a ly s i s o :f t h e developmen·c p :coc;-rc:umtw a r c : - ( . ) \ l ( i i ) C D rr-ying calJaci ty i 11 c r c a s G 5 by 1 , 0 7 8 E , E , o r L� 1 p e r c ent , do ve l opmen t e x p e n d i ture t o t a l $ I 5 , 5 64 o r $ 1 � . !+ per E . E . i n c r e a s e . ( ii i ) ( iv) [_;ro s s inco;ue in creas e s b y $ �+ , 273 o r 3.5 p e r c en t . t h e cleve l o pm en t prot'_;ra1mne is in:feas i b l c i f :finan c eel ( 4 1 ) entirely by of'f 1�21 rm c api t a l . ( v ) i f' surpluE> :f a rm income i s inve s t e d in the deve l o pment programme the proEramme becomes feas ible for e qui t i e s greater than E7 . (vi ) the :fertiliser subs idy enables the development program e t o become :feas ible at E6 . The table as sumes that the :fertiliser subs idy will c ontinue indefinitely , Tabl9 6 . 1 6 P r o()rannne One - The E C J' c c t 0 [ T l w F <� r- ! : i l i s o r S ul1s :i.dy O.t1. t� : r c P co f.i_ t : lb .i. l .L L :-:_ o .r D < ) V c· l o p l n <' n t Equity ES subsidy no subsidy E7 subs idy n o subsidy E6 subs idy no subs idy D a s e Year P o s t Tax ( 1 ) Cash S urplus $ 2 , 000 2 , 000 2 , 000 2 , 000 2 , 000 2 , 000 A r- P r c s on t V a l u e · $ n c I ��-: ----t-j-f- -- 1 I ' I n • n . I n I I I 28 , ,. 9 8 1 25 , 0 7 9 1 22 , 1 69 1 '7 , 1 , o ;, j 7 , '• ' r s ' 7 , 1r 97 1 8 1 8 1 o I 9 , 07 7 1 9 , 91 t O I 1 0 , 0U ir ! IO 1 0 1 1 0 1 8 , 9 98 1 1 6 , 1 hG I 1 3 , 7 1 '• 1 0 , J88 j 1 0 , ,. � G I 1 0 , J ;! '! I 1 1 I ' ' I " 1 2 , J9h 9 , 811 :2 7 , G_5G 1 2 , 896 l J , OJ ;: , 1 J , H ) ;! I 'I J 'I J I i h I I I l 7 , 503 5 , :zGo J J' J7 i 1 ' 1 ' '0 "'. 1 ' '' '1 7J I 1 i · 0 ') 1 1 ., , I , , 1 · :- 1 \ (' l ' ( • ' i S (' I _... . . . . . c .•. - I -� -- 1 ! ' () · · c- i . .. , . . . -, . I ·1 · c-· ' I • l_ ., •• � I :--.. _I_ t - L I � :. t : · : > u ;:; I �; _j' �:· --- I ry ) :?. c,) r_' :l u / ( �) !I ! 9 '!5 < ) �) 7 I I I l I I I I ' 1 � : ;� �2 ;� I 1 ' ' ' _) ._ I ·X- ) I \ ) I . { ) I L-.J . N o t e s - ( 1 ) Us ed as the level o :f p e r s o n a l d r< uvl:n r·:s d u r i n ; •: d c, ve 1 0 p1 1 1 CHt .f o r l l l • � p u L ' p o s e o C calcula tine- pro .li tal.Ji l i Vy in t c rJ!l::-; o r a J l r e s <.�.tl t v;J J u c . ( 2 ) A = � . 0 p e r cent in t e r e s t . D = 6 . 5 per c ent in t e r e s t . C o 7 . 0 p e r c ent in t e re s t . ( J ) * D eno t e s p a y l..> a c k n o t a c h i e v e d w i thin nine t t� c n y c < t r s . ' I ..... --....1 0\ 1 "" I I ( vi i ) as a r e �� u 1 1� of' d e\"c l o pm o n t t l-;. c p o s t t D x c a s h s c.n'plus $ 1::\7 ? a t E8 $ 9 �2:.1 �' t E7 tLi s pr o c;r;: 1 ;mn e i s -fin�m. c: i <. l l .l ·y in f e -, c� :l bJ. c f o r "l: h e Thi s d.evelop1J1cnt procr ::n. l.H e r-� c h o f 1.:ho f' i r s T t ll r c:: c y c a :r ::, <: t n ll o n e' hu.nLL r e d a n d th.i. r L y a c r e s :in "i.:: h o i' o u :c t h )' C Lt :C' • c l oYer s e e d and 1 lb o :f s ub t c :r:-anewa c l o\·cr . suc c e s s ful on H o r m\ henua. hi ll c ow.-ttry . ror thi !'.' reo s on no 5 c1·:·t of molybdi c superpho spha t e p c: r a c r e , by 5 c,,- t o f superpho s phate in the s e c ond y e a r ancl ano ther J c·Ft i n the thi r d y e o. r . ?--I c: m.y :f.::J.rm e r s and farm aclYi s ory o :f:f:L c ers c ons i d e r t h a t thi s i s t he min.inu.m amo1.mt o:f f e r t i l i s e r re�uired for an intens ification pro c e s s , As in d e...-e l opmen t progrn.mme one improved ,,·inter :feeding o f the breeding cows nec e s s itates making tKenty acres of s i lage . The catt l e po li cy invo l ve s s elling all weaner s te ers and surpl.us weaner heifers . The sheep poli cy i s s imilar with the s a l e o f 'ive ther l amb s and surplus e1·;e lambs . The we ther lambs are s ol d during the period :from J anuary to Nay . In the event o:f a dry summer these lambs 'i\'Ould be s o ld earlier . The transi ti on from a predominantly native pas ture to an improved pas ture is often accompanied by a fall in l ives t ock 1 7 9 p e r f O J .' i llClll C G , Thi s h � t f3 b e e n th �:: c :.;. p e r :i c n c e o f' hi l l c o u.n t r ' S i nli l S C' l : ·!- ;l t i V ( � r:' d l'"l l l f' - D e \- ( ' "' 0 l l ) !1(' n t P r o r J ' C1 1 !117! 0 T \·: o -�---.. ,.,_ . .. ----�-- -..._,.----�---- . _,..._ .. __ ,_,_......_. .. ... .,_._ ....... .. ----· 0 v cc :c s 011�ing A c r e s 20() 200 .'2JO 1 JO P J iO n t an d I Bui ldin gs I t ( ; Jn S _\I o t o r S hc: e p I bike �\ -rl-c cls I r o l " " 0 ] 0 ' t_l I �� ,·, \:: t CJ l.l .. L \ f .. � .. '-· .!. .._ Increas e P c· r Y e a r E . E 200 200 2 0 (1 1 G.:J C __ J - -- The da t a in t h e t ab l e r e ve a l s tJ1�t tho l � r a e s t i n c r e a s e �n s t ock numb e r c, o c curs in t b_e :f i r s t thre e y e a r s of' d e v c l O _i)lJle li.'t , Th i s has three advantage s . I t iucroas e s t h e a m 0 1.u1 t o :C s u r p :L u s incOJae ini t ::.. a l l.y aya i J.abl c :for f � t rm de\-e J. op;nen t and r e du c e s the a:;w lm t o f' o l:f f a r m c a p i t a l r e qui r e d v. n cl hen c e debt s e r vi c ing charge s . The dev e lopment progranuue i s more flexible t11CU1 lJrogrammc one as the pro0ranune c an b o s topped a t any p a in t in t ime ·h·i th l i ttle l o s s in benefi t s from earli er inputs . This f lexibility d o e s no t apply t o progrrurunc one . IH t h thi s programme land clearing can be s t opped , but t o obtain ful l benef'i ts from previOus cl earing , c ontinuing inputs o f s to ck and fertili ser are required . A detailed s t o ck reconciliation i s shown in table 6 . 1 8 • . The table shOii-"S that the t o tal number o f breeding ewes increas e s by 65 6 . This repres ents a forty-one per c ent increas e in five years . Over the s ame time period t o tal ew·e 1 -- - - -- - -- - ----����� V ._. ] --�� � � � ���--��- ( �-;-- ------ - -----·--r------- -�1 :. .. ·- ·. 1 .. , . ...: L· ,-. . . .,. \ � L r) ,-- - . I - - \. . . . l J l . . - - ,_ . - j I) � t;.· ·t· I � l o c . � , , J_n , _, , _ (. �><' �· '-· r- - -· - r- . - - - --1· ---- ------r ·-:::-- - . c , -· !________ ___ y e r� -- __ l__-1 __ __ ·i --�- --� _ _ ___ '-+ ___ j ___ _:__ _ __ · n c,- , - c L��)�l le1 1 t_ l B r c d i ng 1>. c , j 1 , G O O l i , G O O I I . 7 td 1 , n o o 2 , 1 1 1 I 2 . 2 1 7T 2 , ." .> 6 E\:c J ! o c·c; c t '-' 1, s _s •J 1 S.J O () 2 6 1 G :; y 7 2 2 1 ·; uo I 8 1 ? ::. J:.e c:r' E 1 .- c J- qu iYLll C H t s � 2 , 0 6 j 1 .2 , 0 6 5 2 , J O O 2 , YYJ 2 , 700 � � 8 <) 5 2 : 9 J O I B r e e ding C o � s HO C ;:,_t tl c -r._:,,-e E quiv0 L o n·t s 5 � 1 T o t a l El-.- '? Lqu i va l e n -c s _\.nnu a l 2 , G 26 80 80 5 6 1 5 6 "1 2 , 6 2 6 2 1 86 1 80 80 80 80 _)()1 5 6 1 5 6 1 5 6 1 J , 0 6 1 J , 2 6 "1 .3 ' 4 2 6 J , L� 9 1 P e r c o n t zt g r� l n c r o a s c T n I-.>.,-e l:: qui,·a l en "'c � ! __[ __ :\_- _ • • _A._._l ___ 8_. q.:._/ _,__6_1 _, .:._9__J__b_,:; • 5 '-- 5 ' 0 1 • 9 I I e qu i va l <�n t s incrco. s e by 865 o r thirty-b·;o per c ont . Deve lop;ncnt c o c: t s are out lined i n t a b l e 6 . 1 9 . Th e tab l e indicates tll a t deve lopment c o s t s a r e hi ghe s t in year thr e e and fertili s e r is the lur&e s t s ingle cash c o s t in all y e ars . The fertili s er s ub s i dy 1dll therefore profo1.mdly influence the fea s ib i l i ty of thi s programme . 6 . 6 Financial Evaluati on The i!llportant informati on from the evaluat i on i s summari s e d in a s eries of tables . Additional information i s listed in tables in appendix G . 6 . 6 . 1 Prorl.uction Data Data in table 6 . 20 shows that as a result of development ,\·ool pro duction increas es by 7 , 557 lbs . This l eads to an 1 8 2 P T o .r >; r 7 :from t h e bas e year l e ve l o :f $ h , 5J J . D c s p i t c t h i s incre a s e s ll c Gp S ' � J e s d.o not e x c e e d the bas e y ear l eve l w 1 t i l y e a r :f our o :f deve l o pment, , Thi s i s due to the retention o:f revenue s t ock :for breeding . As a result o f d Gvc l o pmen t ero s s income increas es t o a new po s t deve:Lopment equilibrimn o:f $ 1 5 , 645 . I n the firs t tw·o years of development the ;;ros s inc.ome i s l e s s than the bas e year be caus e of lower s he ep sale s . 6 . 6 . 2 The Physical Devel ol2!!]-ent Years Data for the debt free s ituation is lis ted in table 6 . 2 1 . As shown in the t able total expenditure exceeds gros s income in the first three years of development . This results in a cumulative defi c i t of' $ 2 , 67 1 at the end of' year thre e . From this point on the pos t tax cash surplus es that o c cur are insuffic ient to enable overdraft repayment by the end of the physical development period . Table 6 . 20 Programme Two - Production Data I tem Base Year Year Year One Two Wool P roduction ( lbs ) 2 2 , 279 2 2 , 0 85 24 ' 6 8 1 Wool S ales ( $ ) 5 , 1 63 5 , 029 5 , 6 1 9 Sheep S ales ( $ ) 4 , 5 33 3 , 495 3 , 936 Cattle S ales ( $ ) 2 , 500 2 , 500 2 , 500 Gross Income ( $ ) 1 2 , 1 9 6 1 1 , 024 1 2 , 055 Year Year Three Four 2 6 , 356 ''.7 ' 897 5 , 9 95 6 , 373 4 , 27 1 4 , 887 2 , 500 2 , 500 1 2 , 7 66 1 3 , 760 Year Five 29 , 039 6 , 6 1 4 5 , 586 2 , 500 1 4 , 700 P o s t Development 29 , 836 9 , 7 88 6 , 357 2 , 500 1 5 , 645 ...... (X) \..J I Tn b l C' f) , �2 1 2 1 ;!_ ' 0 .5 3 1 ?. , 9 1 1 _) J ·1 .2 , 7 G G 1 J , 6 l �9 LJ 1 J , 7 6 0 ' I 2 , 8 ! J 5 1 L1. , 700 1 2 , 3 1 6 1 ' I\ o t e 1 1 5 '1 9 1 1 69 l lt 8 1 8� .• 3 9 0 1 , '( 88 - 88J 2 , 6 7 1 9L1 7 1 ' 7 2 1·1 2 , J 8L� + 660 ---- -·--- ---- ( 1 ) I n c lu d e s t a xa t i on , l i Ee insurance ( $ 2]0 ) u nd p e r s ona l dY' a ck n o t a c hi eved wi. th:i.u n in '..: t c� cn y e ar:"> _ _ j eo (J:j "i 8 9 ( v ) t h e p r O GT 3 1 Jlni c i s J' (: n.s i b l e a t e qui t i e s a l ) o v c E? :i. :C ( vi ) i n c r o et s c c; - ·. ·1 · Y : - �· 1 ' 0 �2 ') $ 1 , 0 9 8 a t i. J t a l .C S E? F; 6 . ( v i i. ) tlw d e vc 1 CJ pm()nt p r o ;; r a nu u c i s :fj_nanc i a l :L-y in :f e a s .i t, l o :f o r the r e p r e s e n t a t iYn f a n n o \,'11 (� r . Th1s s e a r e : - ( i ) the compl e te ut i l i �3 �1 t ion o i' t ] J n exi s t in c p a s t u r e . ( i i ) iH·;., ens i :fi c a t i o n o f p r o cl n c t i on C• 1 1. h o o a c r e s o .f the ( iii ) mo s t :f o r t :i . .l. e land .. c l earing o f ·1 00 a c r 0 s o f mt:muk.<:t . The :f i r s t t'\' O s t a g c s a r c c o n c e rn c P e r , A hu Li. cl P 7-Cr is . omp .l o y e <.l t o c l e ar t h e f e n c e: Li. cl O �' and. 1 0 put in t ra c k. s . 2 7 5 E . E . cru::-- hing t h e s e c o n d _5 0 acre 1 > l o c k o :C �'' ·- _) - ·-a c r e s 2 0 0 � 0 0 - i:J.. C �i.' C .3 5 0 5 0 ll C J, C S 200 1� 0 0 200 a c r e s 250 JOO _)0 manuk. a acres 50 Hand CLltt inc- ! l l a nuka a c r e s P l an t and Buildinc;- j t e m s motor 1.> :LL�c 50 she ep y a rds E1·.· e e quiYa l e n t I n c r e a s e p e r y e a r _L_r:_-. _ · ____,_2_J_· :J-t::- _.__ 2_?_. 5-�-2-2_._:;_!� -' :1 5 �- 1 9 �2 The deve lopment c o s t s are outlined in table 6 . 2 8 . The highe s t amuml c o s t o c curs in the s e c ond and third year of development , In the s e y ears clearing o f the manuJca is undertal'en and fertili s er input r e a c h e s a peak . Fe rtilis e r is the only development c o s t in the fourth and fiftl1 years o:f deve lopment . 6 . 8 Financial Evaluati on The impor tant data from the financial evaluation i s summaris ed in a s eries of tables . Additional data can be fow1d in appendix G . 6 . 8 . 1 Production Data Production data for the five years of physi cal development i s li sted in table 6 . 29 . The table shows that 1 93 Table 6 . 27 Programme Three - S tock Reconciliation Development Year S tock 1vintered Bas e Post Y ear 1 2 3 4 5 Development Breeding Elves 1 ' 600 1 ' 600 1 J 7 83 2, 0 20 2 , 1 7 7 2 , 234 2 , 268 Ewe Hoggets 550 5 5 0 626 657 7 lJ- 4 80 2 823 Sheep Ewe Equivalents 2 , 0 65 2 , 065 2 , 300 2 , 575 2 , 800 2 , 900 2 , 950 Breeding C ows 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 Cattle Ewe Equivalents 5 6 1 5 ·'� - 5 6 1 5 6 1 5 6 1 5 6 1 5 6 1 Total Elve Equivalents 2 , 6 26 2 , 6 2 6 2 , 8 6 1 3 , 1 3 6 3 , 3 6 1 3 , 4 6 1 3 ' 5 1 1 Annual Percen- tage Increase In Ev,re Equivalents - N . A 8 . 9 9 . 6 7 . 1 2 . 9 1 . 4 Note - N .A . denotes non applicable . Table 6 . 2 8 Progranune Three - Deve lopment C o s t s Development Year I tem 1 2 3 4 5 $ $ $ $ $ Capital F ertilis er 1 , 7 00 3 , 9 80 3 , 432 1 ' 4 40 22lJ- Breeding S to ck Purchas es - 6 9 6 27 6 - - Fencing 1 ' 06 5 3 7 5 375 - - Overs owing 200 450 - - - Cutt ing & Crushing Manuka - 250 - ·- - Hand cutt ing Manuka - - 1 ' 000 - - Motorbike - 500 - - - Sheep yards - - 750 - - Total Annual C o s t 2 , 9 6 5 6 , 25 1 5 , 833 1 , 4 4 0 2 24 Table 6 . 29 Programme Three - Production Data I tem Bas e Year Year Year One Two Wool Production ( lbs ) 2 2 , 279 2 2 , 058 25 , 335 Wool Sales ( $ ) 5 , 1 63 5 , 0 23 5 , 770 Sheep Sales ( $ ) 4 , 533 3 , 5 22 3 , 9 22 Cattle Sales ( $ ) 2 , 500 2 , 500 2 , 500 Gros s Sales ( $ ) 1 2 , 1 9 6 1 1 , 045 1 2 , 1 92 - --- - - Year Year Three Four 27 , 654 2� ' 237 6 , 282 6 , 638 L� , 388 5 , 263 2 , 500 2 , 500 1 3 , 1 70 1 L� , 40 1 Year Five 29 , 964 6 , 802 5 , 7 7 1 2 , 500 1 5 , 073 P o s t Development 30 , 030 6 , 8 1 5 5 , 8 1 8 2 , 500 1 5 , 1 33 ... \D +:- 1 95 ''o ol p r o d u c t i on inc 1 c_• c:. s C-! : hy 7 7 .5 1 lbs e:tnd '''o o l s a l � s by �- , , Gs 2 . l 1 1 t ll u f i r :-; t t han Lhc p r c -deYc l o p n t c rn. s :L tu a. t . i on • . :� s a r c s u l t o i' c.l eYc l o p; n c:m i gro s s in c o lll c i n c r e o s e s by G . 8 . 2 The P hy s j c a l D o \c c=, } o p w e n t Y e :1 :r"' s ____ ....._ __ _ �-----· .. ··�·4�---- - - The �inancia l d a t a f o r the d e b t f r e e � l tua t i on is c on t a i n e d i n t a b l e 6 . J O , Da t ; t in the t: c-:.l ) l e s h o K s t ha t t o i.; ;::J J expendi t t tre 0xc e c d s i n c omu in t h e f i r s t thr e e y e i.1 J ' i3 o f deYe l opmen t . I n y e .'l r on0 thi s is in part clue t o the r e du c t i on in r e v e n u e s t o c k a n d i n part d u e t o e xp en d i tur e on improved. s ub d :L vi s i o n . The re t ent i on o f 50 per c ent of the :five y e a r 0wes an d the p u r c h a s e o f 1 1 6 two t o o th ewes is largely respons ible for the cash d e :f i c i t i n y ear ti,'O . At the end o f y e ar two the t otal overdraft incurred as a result of development i s $ J , 085 . This i s increased t o $ 4 , 0 0 1 in year three as a result of expenditure exceeding income by $ 9 1 6 . The las t tvvo years o f development involve a period of consoli dation . Development i s confined t o small s t ock increas e s and capi tal ferti liser applications . As a result pos t tax cash surpluses o ccur in the s e years . Thes e surplus es enable the cumulative overdraft to be repaid by the end of the D n v c l o pm o i t t \- C C:l l"' --------- - - -- - 1 2 J L� 5 :N o t e - 1 2 ' 1 9 2 "1 1 ' ?07 1 1 1 ' 4 1 5 1 1 · r: {i :· · ·_; -c ·l 1 r ; �- i ( .. 11 ..... $ c.!) .;: '-? 5 -8G2 8 6 2 . m i u m s . ( 2 ) A t a s i x p e r c e11 t in t u� e s t ro. t c . ( J ) De ta i l ed :f i n an c i a l d a t a f o :r t h e vz:� ri ous e qu i t y l eve l s i s c ontain ed in a p p en d i x G . Tab l_o_G_>..:..' 2� Equi ty E 1 0 E8 E7 E6 E5 Note - Thr e e - P o s t Deve l o pmen t I n c r e n. s e In Gro s s Incone F'rom Bo. s e Y e a r $ 2 , 9 3 7 2 , 9 3 7 2 , 9 3 7 2 , 9 3 7 2 , 9 3 7 ---- -- I n c r e a s e I n. Taxa t i o n F'rom B<:�.s e Y ear $ 8 1 4 7 5 4 7 2 3 6 6 9 60 3 In creas e I n P o s tl T a x C a s h Surplus F r o m B a s e Y e a r $ 6 2 3 67 J 7 1 5 7 60 83 6 Detai led pos t development data for the various equi ty s i tuations is c ontained in appendix G . l e a s t f o r ES . F o r equi t i e s gr e a t e r th<:tn E? rhe in crea s e in s u r p l u.s , 6 ' 8 . l-j i s "LUJ.p.c o f'i t a b l e i .f i t i s i' i n a n c e cl. en t irely by bo r r o \·:u d money ( c ond i t i on A ) . Thi s r:J s pe c t i s i l l u s t ra t c; cl by d � t o. i n tab l e 6 . J3 . H o 1,·ev e r i f' surplu.s :farm i n c ome i s in ve s t e d in t h e d e v c .: , . 1J m e n t proe:ramme ( concli t ion B) t h en the programme i s f'e as i b l e f o r e qu i t i c s equal to or f,Tio! a teT th2.n E7 . Table 6 . 34 r e \' G a l s tlw.t :f o r E7 i:f $ 9 1 7 i s inve s t e d annua l ly in the developmen t p r o g r u nm t e than payback i s achi eved at the end o:f 1 3 y e a r s . The pres ent va lue o f the p r o c;rammo varies f' r o m $ 1 0 , 006 ( 6% intere s t ) to $ 6 , 0 63 ( 7% interes t ) . Th e maximum ove rclr;L :f t incur r e d i s approxima"c ely $ 1 1 , 500 . T a b l e 6 . 3 3 P r oc;r a mw e Thr e e - P r o :f i t a b i l i ry C n cl o r C ond i t i o n A .---- ---,- ------------------.--------------------�---------------- �--------- --- Equity E 1 0 E8 E? E6 ES Notes - B a s e Y e a r P o s t T a x ( 1 ) C a s h SurpJ.us $ 4 , 5 69 3 ' 4- 67 2 , 9 1 7 2 , 2 77 1 ' 7 35 Pres en t Va lue s ( 6% interes t ) - - - - - Maximum O v e rdraf't $ 1 3 ,.;41 1 L� , 846 1 5 , 344 1 5 , 7 84 1 7 , 7 1 9 Payback � * * * * ( 1 ) Used as the l evel of personal drawings during development for the purpos e of calculating profi tability in terms of a pres ent value . ( 2 ) * Indicat es payback no t achi eved within nineteen years . Table 6 . 34 Programme Three - Profi!���l��y U�d �' r �£���!��n � Equity Ba s e Y e a r P o s t Tax( 1 ) Cash Surplus P r e s e n t V a l : 1 c I MaxiuwJn Overdra :ft '. P a y b a c k I :\ ' I n c r e a s e I I ( , . �- I n p o ,� t $ I c A In---� , �------�--------------�----- I . , I E8 E7 E6 ES Notes - Reduced fr o m $ 3 , 4 67 to ( i ) $ 2 , 467 ( i i ) $ 2 , 000 R e duc e d from $ 2 , 9 1 7 to $ 2 , 000 R e du c e d from $ 2 , 277 to $ 2 , 000 $ 1 , 7 35 I I I I 1 1 , 5 7 9 1 9 . '-1 2 8 ! 1 9 , 970 ! ·1 7 , 2 7 J 1 I 7 , 5 8J ] ll , 9 6 7 1 o , oo6 I 7 , 885 I 6 , o6 �) 1 I I I I ! I A I I ' . . , , . , T < • . 0 T B 1---y- --, 1 _ J .. .x C a s 11 1 C : 1 1• 1. S u r p . .l u � --- --+-- -t-� u r. s I __ I I _, . ,., I �� I � I I ! I , - -t ,. : ! I I I I I : ; : : I 1 0 , lJ 6J 8 , 6 1 2 1 1 ' 3 1 0 , ,. � , 5 3 2 1 7 , 7 1 9 1 o "' ,. - � j j i I 1 ' Y J ) 1 ( ) r 1 . , i I • I - , U '-1 i:3 ' 1 I s 6 (, 3 I . . ,. 2 ! 1 ;� 1 1 ., ! ' ,) 8 - I r- I · pJ 6 1 " r ' 1' _ I I I .J I ,' ' �) i . I . , I I i J I I I I ' 1 1 1 , 1+ 2 0 j · I i I ' I I 1 :- •) ., I . . ' I ! I il ' _) , _ V li ! J I i ') ,' ., ,, I : .- J ) ' ; ' - � 67J 67 3 7 1' 5 ! I I I I 1 I ! . I I I ' I I : .• I I I I I I ' I 1 I I ....,_______!__ I I • I ( 1 ) U s e d as the l evel of' pers onal d r'awinGs ll ll r i n c; d c l.· c J. o pm c n t f o r tlle purp o :::; ( ' o f calculating profitabil i ty in terms o f a p r e s e n t va l u e . ( 2 ) A ;;; 6 . 0 per c e nt in teres t . B = 6 . ) per c ent in t e r e s t . c "" 7 . 0 p e r c ent in t e rc � :::; t . ( .3 ) ·* D eno t es payback n o t a c l 1 i cvc d \v:L tl d. l' n i n ( ) L c ·��jl Y (' < 1 r s . -'-v \...0 200 The ;::m.a ly s i s o .f pro.fi t ;:J l) i l i ty : i ncl j_ c- a t c s tha t thi s r • • )) r c s e n t s wu LL . e n a b l e d t h e m t o 1 1 s ur'.·j_ve " 1.u1. d e:· r e c o n o m i c c u n cl i t i o n .s o _;-' :fi1 1 l i n e· p r i c e :3 an d r i .=.: i n g C (J S t s , There i s , h o w e Y e r , a l i m i t t o the c o s t in c r .o! a .o- c :..; t h e y c an c ontinue to abs o rlJ . H e n c e i.. h e r e i s a n c o cl t o i n c r e n s e production in o rd e r t o ma intain tl1 e i r s t cct n d a r cl o f l ivin;<; . On 1nany o f t h o s e f a r m s a s i gnif'icant in c r e a s e in p r o d u c t i o n i s only poss ible by h i LL c o un t ry d eve lopment . This d e v e l o p m e n t can be part ly f inan c e d l 1y s u r p J. n �- f' a r m inc ome b u t t h e huJ k o f' the required capital has t o be borrowed . 7 . 2 Des cr i p t i on O f Tlle Farm The to tal area of the farm i s 650 a c r e s . 200 acres of s own pas ture , 250 acres of native pas ture , 1 50 acres of tauhinu and gors e , 5 0 acres o f was te land . Thi s c ompri s e s : - ( 1 ) Random survey farm numbers 6 , 1 2 and 1 6 are examples o f this type of' property . 2 0 J ·r ·.\.- u l t LllJ •.1 J"' e c;_ A d r y ]-J 0 r _i _ o d us nn ll )' o c c n r :- ; .Lr o 1 1 1 J u n u ; t ; · :, t o �- ! a r c ) ! bu t u o n . fa 1 1 s <'.t r c: r c:n _· (" . f r u s t s a n cl c o l d :::: o u t h e r 1 y �<: i n cl s c : c e>. a 1. e "LUJ l >l c) a s a.n t c o n d i t i o n s ill t he 1d n t o r . T h e· r o l ! j n r.; c o ru J t r y i s K e .l l s u b cl i Y i cl c� d . O n. L J w h i l l b l o ck subdivis i on i s i n a d e q u a t e an d p r e Y e n t s 2 E Y o r�·ani � e d .1\. t the p r o s o n t t i m e t h e n e, t u C' a l 1-:a t e r s u p p l y j u_s t c opes 1d t h t h e r c� q u i r e m e n t ::; o f tl1e s t o c k , The .s he ep p o l i c y ha s c ons i s t e d or� bre edin G 0 1 ·: c s 1-.'i t h the s a l e of f a t l a :-nb .s . T h i s p o l i c y i s no 1\ l> e ing- a l -L e r ed t o o n o of s e l l ine; ::: t o r o l a m b s b e c au s e of d i f fi c u l t i e s c x p o r i e n c c�d i n fat tening l n mh s . T h c s e d i 1 f i c u l t i e s have l a r g- e l y o c curred a s a r e sul t of ina clequa t o fe ed SU ]_Jp l i e s . The cat t l e p o l i cy has va r i e d . For the deve lopment o f the hill c ountry area the o1,'1 er c ons iders that bre eding c o·.,-s are required . However , onc e development has been compl e t ed the cat tle po l i cy wi ll be revi s e d . I n re c ent years the grazing policy has changed from s e t s t ocking , t o mobs t ocking from weaning through t o lambing . Because o f inadequate subdivis ion mobstocking has not s i gnificantly increas ed pas ture production . As a resul t supplementary winter feed i s required for the bre eding ewes . This i s provided for by way of a winter crop and hay . P r i o r t o the dce liJ� e in ,,-o o '- p r l c c s the b r e e d .L n g- �':i e s The f a r m i. s a t p r e s ent C d r r y i · -l g' t h e f o l l O\.·in� s t o c k n w n t.J e r .s : -- 1 , J OO br e e ctin� e w e s , 5 0 0 e -;,- rj l w e; c; c t s , 2 6 r a m s , 1 4 bre c d i nc c o �s , bu l l . 20� Thi s i s a ·!.; o t a l o f' i , ·i- 80 8\,- c · c qniv0. l ont s ( E . E . ) s or 2 . 9 E . E . per p o t en t i a l ly p r o d uc t i ve 8 c rc . l n i tihlly the p .l an invol vet; improving pas ture s and increas ing s t o ck numbers on the lJ louc;ha.hle lcu1d , This i s f' o l l o;,-e J. by development of the h:i l l C O Ui1. t r y b l o c k . The ini tial deve lopment incr e a s e s b o th the total s to ck nwubers and the gross inc ome . Thes e t1vo factors combine t o pro vide the bas is for developing the tauhinu and gorse on the hill country . Pas ture improvement on the ploughable land i s achi eved in two ways viz . by increas ed ferti liser application in as s ociation 1vi th increased s to ck numbers and by c ropping and pas ture renewal . In the firs t year of development s ix hundred weight ( mvt ) of superphosphate i s applied to 225 acres of ploughable land . The remaining 35 acres is cropped over a 205 period o f t hr c 0 y e a r s . I 1 1 e a c h ) c a r a \\' i n t e r r. r o p o f' p a s t u r e , ( ? ) breeding e1\ e s a n d s i x ·b r c· c d :L n c C O \'. S . In t lJ. o s e c o n d a n d thi rd y e a r t> of deve l o } -' 'ncnt t h e n u m1 J c r o f br o e cU.nt_� c o w ::; i. s i n c r e a s e d t o 4 0 . The s l o 1·: in c r e a s e s p r e a d�; t JJ.e c o s L o f' c a t t l e' p l l r r. ha s e s o v· e r a n umb e r o r y e a r s . I t i s n e c e s s a r y t o p u. r c l 1 a s e c a t c l e i n o r d e r t o in c r e a s e the l.n'o t:; ding h e r d t o Lt O 1\· i t hin t h r e e y e a r s . ( J ) O n t J1o p l e ·uc;ha b l e .l< t J J.d t h e r e i s an i n c r e a s e of' 1 0 0 b:r e o d inc o 1-:e s in tlw s e c on d y e a r o :r d e v e l o pmen t , In the S cdJW year deve l o pm e n t \\· o rk b e g i n s on t ll e hi l l c oun t ry b l o c 1.;: , Th i s ·1\·o rk. ini t i a l ly inYo l v c s t h e erec tion o:f' a bonil dary f'enc o a r o und the native bus h . A l. thouch not direc tly pro duc tive thi s f' e n c e prevents t h e l o s s o f s tock in the bush and envings . The pos t tax cash surplus is available for personal drawings and development . 224 Table 7 . 1 5 Repres enta tive Farm A - Produc tion Data Bas e Year Year Year Year P o s t I tem Year O n e Two Three F our Deve 1opn en t ll o o l Produc t i on ( lbs ) 1 9 , 350 '1 9 , 9 60 2 2 , 067 2 3 , 3 6 7 2 4,538 25 , 433 lv o ol Sale s ( $ ) 4 , 4 5 14- 4 , 5 5 1 4 , 887 5 , 327 5,596 5 , 7 98 Sheep Sales ( $ ) 4 , 7 30 4 , 267 5 , 035 5 , 1 9 8 5,567 6 , 34 1 Cattle Sale s ( $ ) 529 1 ' 0 �20 8 23 4 0 8 ho8 ? lJ-8 Gros s Inc ome ( $ ) 9 , 7 1 3 9 , 838 10 ' 745 10 , 9 33 1 1 ,57 1 1 2 , 887 - wool sales by $ 1 , 3h 4 . The · · 1 c reas e in breeding e1ves results in additi onal C . F .A . ewes and s t ore lambs being s o ld , This in turn caus e s s he ep sales t o ri s e by $ 1 , 6 1 1 . Cat tl e sales ac c ount for only $ 2 1 9 of the $ 3 , 1 74 increas e in gro s s income . In the s e c ond and third years o f development cattle s a l e s reach their peak with the disposal o f the breeding herd . The dec line in the relative importance of cattle sales increase s the vulnerability of the enterpris e t o falling she ep prices . The limi t on cat tle nwnbers means that reduced she ep sales cannot be offs et by increased cattle sales . The Phys ica� Development Years Financial data for the �our years of phys i cal development for E1 0 is out lined in table 7 . 1 6 . For the debt free s i tuation t o tal expendi ture exc e eds gro s s income in the first y ear of development only . This ini tial overdraft i s repai d by the end o f year two . By the end of year four the additional cash surplus incurred as a result of deve lopment has increas ed to $ 2 , 642 . A s s o c iated with the annual increas e in the cash surplus is increas e d taxation. As a result of development taxation increas e s from $444 in year one to $ 860 in year four . 2 2 5 Table 7 . 1 6 Re.12resentative Farm A - Financial Data For The D e b t Free S i tuation Development Gross Total Taxation Pos t Tax Cumula t i ve Y ear Income C a s h( 1 ) Cash Credi t Expendi ture Surplus $ $ $ $ $ 1 9 , 8 3 8 9 , 870 4LJ-4 - 3 2 - 3 2 2 1 0 , 7 45 1 0 , 220 5 2 5 5 64 5 3 2 3 1 0 , 9 3 3 1 0 , 087 6 1 0 846 1 ' 3 7 9 4 1 1 , 5 7 1 1 0 , 30 9 860 n , 262 2 , 6 4 2 Note - ( 1 ) Includes taxation , life insurance ( $ 250 ) , personal drawings ( $ 2 , 000 ) , farm working expens es and deve l o pment expens es . For the non debt free s i tuations development cann o t be financed entirely by surplus income . Data c ontained in table 7 . 1 7 emphas ises thi s point . Capital has to be borrowed and as the equity decreas e s the amount required increas e s . For E8 the maximum overdraft reaches a peak in year three of development 1vhile for E7 and E 6 the capi tal requirements reach a peak in the final y ear of development . The capital requirements of the development programme are small in re lation t o thooo incurred by development programmes analysed for other repres entative farms . C ons equently over- draft interest i s not such an important development cos t . 7 . 7 . 1+ The P o s t Development S i tuation The important data for the po s t development s i tuation i s s hown in the las t two columns of table 7 . 1 8 . These c olunms indicate the extent o f the increases in pos t tax cash surplus and taxation . The c olumns show that the po s t tax cash surplus Table 7 . 1 7 Equi ty E1 0 E8 E7 E6 Notes - 226 Repres entative Farm A - The Effe c t Of Farm Indebtednes s On Overdr;'! ft H egu i r emen t s DurinG Deve lopment Personal Drawings During ( 1 ) Development $ 2 , 000 2 , 000 1 ' 962 1 ' 232 Haximum Overdraft Incurred During Development $ 32 1 , 384 2 , 953 2 , 7 80 Year Maximum Overdraft Interes t ( 2 ) $ 1 2 3 83 4 1 77 4 1 67 ( 1 ) Does nci t include taxation or life insuranc e premiwns . Thes e i t ems are allowed for s eparat ely . ( 2 ) At a s ix per c ent intere s t rat e . ( 3 ) De tailed financ ial data for the various equi ty levels i s contained in appendix I o Table 7 . 1 8 Repres entative Farm A - Po s t Deve lopment S ummary Equity Increas e In Increas e In Increas e In P o s t Gro s s Income Taxation From Tax Cash Surplus From The Bas e The Bas e Y ear From The Bas e Year Year $ $ $ E 1 0 3 , 1 74 652 905 E8 3 , 1 74 5 7 9 9 7 8 E7 3 , 1 74 545 1 ' 0 1 2 E6 3 , 1 74 490 1 ' 068 Note --- ( 1 ) De tailed po s t deve lopment data for the various equity s i tuations is c ontained in appendix I • 227 increas e s vary from $ 905 at E 1 0 to $ 1 , 06 8 at E6 . S imilarly taxation ris es by $6 5 2 at E1 0 and $ 490 a t E6 . For E6 the increas e in the post tax cash surplus i s of particular importance . I f the repres entative farmer had a 60 per cent equi ty and undertook this development progra1mne he would almost double his pers onal drawings i . e . pers onal drawings would ris e from $ 1 , 232 to $ 2 , 300 . ( 1 4 ) As i s s e en in the following s e ction the devel opment progra1mne is both profitable and "attractive " at a 60 per c ent equi ty . . Lenc e development at this l evel of equity is feas ibl e . 7 - 7 · 5 The Profi tability Of The Deve lopment PrograJmne Data in table 7 . 1 9 indicates that the development prograJmne is profitable at all equity l evels analysed . ::<'or the m1.reali stic debt fre e s i tuation the bas e -y ear surplus doe s no t have to be reduced t o make the programme financially :feas ibl e . In o ther words a :farmer could continue to have pers onal drawings o:f $ 3 , 320 and profi tabilit-y borro\v all the capital required for development . The maximum overdraft incurred i s l e s s than $3 , 000 and this mone-y is repaid b-y the end of year e ight . The e ffect of reducing the bas e year surplus on the profitability of the programme i s illus trated by data for E S . I f all development capital has t o b e borrmved a maximum overdraft of approximately $ 2 , 800 i s incurred . This i s repaid by the end of year eight . Depending on the intere s t rate us e d the pres ent value figures range from approximately $ 8 , 000 t o ( 1 4 ) This s tatement implie s that i t i s pos s ible t o live on $ 1 , 23 2 per year . Tahle 1.:....:!..2. Re12res entative F:arm A - P r o fi tabi l i tz Of The Dc�elopment Proc-ranune Equity I E1 0 I E8 I E7 I E6 I Notes - Bas e Year P o s t Tax ( 1 ) Cash Surplus $ 3 , 320 2 , 42 1 ( 2 ) 2 ooo ( 3 ) ' 1 , 96 2 1 , 232 . I Present Value $ A D I c 9 , 1 88 8 , 055 7 , 087 1 0 , 20l� 8 , 977 7 , 9 27 1 7 , � 6 2 1 5 , 7 1 2 1 1+ , 2L1 o 1 0 , 687 9 , 4 1 6 8 , 3 30 1 1 ' 420 1 0 , 080 8 , 935 Payl>ack I Maximum Overdraft (year ) I $ A D c A D I c 8 8 8 2 , 883 2 , 904 2 , 926 8 8 8 2 , 82 2 2 , 845 2 , 869 5 5 5 1 ' 38l� 1 , 39 2 1 ' 3 95 7 8 8 2 , 7 9 2 2 , 8 1 7 2 , 842 7 7 7 2 , 7 � I 2 , 8 1 6 2 , 842 ( 1 ) Used as the level of pers onal drawine;s durinG' development for the purpos e o f calculating a pres ent value . ( 2 ) Condition A i . e . the pers onal drawines durine development is equal to the pre-development pos t t ax cash surplus . Hence the development prorrramme is financed by borrowed money . Increas e In P o s t Tax Cash Surplus $ 905 978 1 ' 0 1 2 1 ' 068 ( 3 ) Condi tion B i . e . pers onal drawinc;s durinc vland farms in the Hormvhenua di s tri c t i s 1 2 , 000 lb of dry matter per acre , I t i s highly improbable that this l evel of production i s being or c ould be achi eved on the hill c ountry , Hence to support 1 0 E . E Q per acre at leas t 6 , 000 lbs o f dry mat t er per acre has t o be purchas ed . This 1-vould be unprofitable • . 235 the high rainfall areas . ( 4 ) In the low rainfall areas expos ed to c oas tal winds the potential s tocking rate i s likely t o be les s . Es timates o f potential s t o cking rates made by survey farmers varied according to locali ty . In the higher rainfalJ_ areas e . g . Shannon and the O taki Gorge , estimates 1vere as high as 6 E . E . per acre . On the drier more exposed coas tal areas of Packakariki , 1-laikanae and Te Horo the highest e s t imat e was 5 E . E . per acre . From his O\vTI obs ervations the author considers that a carrying capacity of 4 . 5 E . E . per acre is po s s ible on all Hormv-henua hi ll c ountry under the pres ent level of technology . In the higher rainfall areas s tocking rates of 5 . 5 E . E . are feas ible . 8 . 2 . 1 Po tential Increases in S t ock Nwnbers The potential production increase on t.he Horowhenua hill country lvas de t ermined in terms of e1ve equivalents . I n order to do this two asswnptions were made . These were : - ( i ) land us e d.ata from the random survey farms applies to all hill country farms . ( i i ) s t o cking rates of 5 . 5 E . E . per acre are feas ible on JO per cent of the hill c ountry area . The to tal area of the hill c ountry is approximately 70 , 000 acres . By applying land us e data from Table 4 . 2 this area is s een to cons i s t o f : - 54 , 600 acres of productive land ( 4 ) This refers to hill country areas with an annual rainfall of greater than 50 inches . 236 7 , 700 acres of potentially productive land 7 , 700 acres of was te land . The pres ent carrying capacity of the produc tive lm�d i s 3 . 3 E . E . per acre . Hence the total number of e\ve equivalents being farmed at pres ent = 54 , 600 acres x 3 . 3 E . E . per acre = 1 80 , 1 80 E . E o By intens ifying production on the exi s ting productive land the potential production increas e would be plus 54 , 600 X 2Q X 1 . 2 E . E . 1 00 54- , 600 X 30 X 2 . 2 E . E . 1 00 ,. 8 1 , 900 E . E . I f the po tentiall.y productive land \vas cleared and developed the to tal increas e would equal 8 1 , 900 + ( 7 , 700 X 70 X l� , 5 ) + ( 7 , 700 X JO X 5 , 5 ) 1 00 1 00 = 8 ·1 , 900 + 36 , 9 60 a 1 1 8 , 860 . C ompared to the pre s ent carrying capac i ty of 1 80 , 1 80 E . E . this repres ents a pot ential increas e of 65 . 9 per c ent . 8 . 2 . 2 Inputs Required t o Achieve Produc tion Increas es As suming that hill country farmers had an incentive to develop , then four major inputs would be required t o achi eve the potential product i on outlined in the previous s e c tion . The s e inputs are capital , improved labour product ivity , improved managerial skill and an intensive advis ory s ervice . Thes e inputs are briefly dis cus s ed in the follow"ing subs ections : - ( i ) Off farm capital 237 In the pas t increas es in s tock nwnbers , and therefore production , has largely been the resul t of reinves tment o f farm income . ( S ) Today declining farm income means that the greater proportion of capital has to c ome from s ources out s ide the farming s e c t or . The amount of capi tal required wi ll vary •vi th the type of development and the individual farm s i tuation . However , i t i s probable that the amoru1t required will b e the greate s t for low equity and small s i ze farms and for development involving land clearing . This point can be illus trated by referring t o the capital requirement s of deve lopment programmes devised for repres entative farms . An examination . of thes e programmes indicates that for repres entative farm F ( 6 ) approximate ly $ 1 0 , 000 of addit i onal capital i s required for development . A similar amount i s also required for repre s entative farm G • ( 7 ) For the adequate " income farm" \vhere development i s res tricted to intens i fi c a- tion $ 3 , 000 of capital input is required , At the pres ent time i t i s unlikely that farmers would be prepared to borrmv ]_arge smns of money . ( 8 ) Nor is i t l ikely that the amount of development capital required by s ome farmers would be forthcoming from l ending ins titutions . ( 9 ) ( 5 ) Ross ( 39 ) has s tated that " examination of changes in farm income and output over the las t 45 years shows that inves tment and output have been c los ely associated and tlat inves tment i s largely affected by the l evel of farmers ' incomes . " ( 6 ) A low equity undeveloped hill c ountry unit . ( 7 ) An example o f a small Horowhenua hill c ountry property . ( 8 ) S e e s ection 8 . 4 238 Hence additional credit facilities may be required before any 1vorth1vhile development c ould or would be Ul'ldertaken . ( i i ) Imn:J:'oved labour produc tivity At the pres ent t ime there is one labour w1.i t per 1 , 1 73 E . E . On thi s bas is another 1 0 1 permanent labour units 1vill be required to handle the potential increas e of 1 1 8 , 860 E . E . Such an increas e would be w1.likely t o o ccur . R e s tric ting fac tors are the lack of sui table labour and the inability and unwillingness of farmers to pay wages which would attract labour from the indus trial areas . Hence labour pro duc ti vi ty ,,ril l have to be improved . C ons i deration will have t o be given to one or more of the following as pects : .. ( 1 0 ) ( a ) i n c r e a s inG the numb e r of s t ock per labour 1-mi t and accepting a s lightly l ower s tock performance . ( b ) making more us e of ccntract labour . ( c ) making us e of labour saving device s . ( d ) better work organisation and working in with o ther farmers . ( e ) cha..YJ.ge to a l e s s labour intensive sheep e . g . P erendale . ( f ) subs tituting capital for labour . Thes e changes have already been implemented on s ome farms ( 9 ) Factors which are l ikely t o restri c t the amount of development finance l ent by l ending ins t ituti ons are lmv e quities , l ow resource productivity and dec lining income . C ampbell ( �-0 ) has s tated that the willingnes s and ability o f bankers and o ther lenders t o provide capital i s substantially influenced by the amount and trend of the farm income . ( 1 0 ) These aspects are dis cussed in s ome detail in ( 4 1 ) . 239 as ris ing c o s t s force hil l country farmers to improve their effic iency . ( i i i ) I mpr ove d man ace r i a l ski ll This i s required for both produ.ction and finan c i a l control . As s to ck nrunbors rise management becomes of increas ing importance . F e ed supplies mus t be utili s ed to the bes t advantage s o that they meet the s tock requirements throughout the y ear . F inancial c ontrol o f r e.::. 0urces mus t als o be improved . Farmers are generally no t c o s t cons cious until a time of financial s tres s . Today faTin income is extremely s ens i tive to changes in prices and c o s ts . If incomes are to be main- tained then :farmers mus t improve the way in which they manage their re s ources . Resource s will have to be directed to where their marginal produc tivity is the greates t . ( 1 1 ) In order to do this , managers 1vill have t o )TID.ke more us e of s e rvi ces which speciali s e in plaru.1.ing and budget i:Og . . Succe s s in increas ing production will depend upon decis ions being t e s ted for their financial feasibility before they are implemented . D e c i s ions implemented 1vi thout t e s ting are likely to be e conomically i rrational , to lead to inefficiency and hence lo1v income . ( iv ) An int ensive advis ory s ervi c e Such an advisory s ervic e will be required . ·t o give advice on planning, budgeting and evaluation as 1vell as day t o day management advi c e . In order to allo1v farm managers t o make ( 1 1 ) For the Horowhenua hil l country this is l ikely t o mean tha t on mos t farms res ources will have t o b e direct ed to intens ificati on rather than to land development . 240 judgements and decisions they must receive the be s t pos s ible information . Thus there is a need to keep the farm manager abreas t of new te chnology and i deas . For this reas on advis ors trained and experienced in giving management and financial advi c e are required . The s e advi sors in addition to working with the farmer would als o be required to maintain c lo s e liaison with accountants and lending ins titutions . They may als o be required to supervis e the implementation of the actuaJ ..:.evelopment plan . ( 1 2 ) Becaus e of the intens ive nature of this s ort of advisory s ervice there is a limit to the number of farmers one advis or c ould s ervi c e . Hence i t is po s s ible that in order t o provide this intens ive s ervice , the Department of Agri culture would require nt least an additional tl,ro advis ors in the area . ( 1 J ) 8 . J The F e a s i b i l i ty of Incyeas ine; Production The reac tion o f H o r owhcnua hi l l country farmers to a continuing c o s t pri c e spiral will vary according t o their individual s i tuations . Influencing factors will be the l evel of debt , s i ze of' farm, pers onal income requirements and the level of fixed costs . For many farmers , increas ing production may be the only way of maintaining a viable unit . This s tudy has analys ed the feasibility of incre as ing production on three repres entative farms . The result s of ( 1 2 ) I t is c onceivable that in the future becaus e o f the s carcity of capital , farmers \vi.ll have to accept s ome form of financial c ontrol in order to ensure that profi table product i on increas es occur . This would in e ffect be an extension of the Marginal Lands type of loan in which the recipient farmer is placed on a budget for a number ofyea.rs. ( 1 3 ) This s tatement implies that the Department of Agriculture is bes t equipped to provide such a s ervice . the s e analys es were outlined in chapters 6 and 7 . The implications o:f the r e s ults are now examined . In dis cussing the results of the analyse s i t mus t b e r emembered that : - ( i ) the progranunes analys ed were tho s e which would be implemented by the representative farmers . ( ii ) ( iii ) ( 1 h ) no allowance was made for ris ing input c o s t s . no allo,vance could be made f or changes in te chnology or government poli cy . ( iv ) analyses of ex ante programmes involve a large degree o f' uncertainty . The analys es showed that variation in res ourc e s truc ture and in the method of' financing deve lopment influence s the feas ibility o f' development , For indivi dual farm s i tuations nwnerous o ther factors will als o be o:f importance . Th.es e fac tors include the degree o f' mana e;erial skill , s tock per:formance levels and the rate of' deve lOilment . Hence i t i s no t pos s ible to categorically s tate that a prograrrune unprofi table for the repres entative farm will also be unprofi table for s imilar farms . This s tatement can only be made if' the principles of' the development plan are re-budgeted and re-evaluated for the individual farm s i tuation. C ons equently only broad s tatements can be made about the implications of' the ex ante analys es . 8 . 3 . 1 Undeveloped Hil l C ountry U�its ( 1 4 ) Since the commencement of' this s tudy farm input c o s t s have c ontinued t o ris e . Be tlveen January 1 96 9 and January 1 970 c o s t s ros e by three per c ent ( 36 ) . For mos t of these farms a ma j or factor res tricting development is the inability to eoncrate surplus income for development . A large amorn'lt of finance has t o be borrowed if development is to be undertaken . The analys es have shown that for the representative farm this is unprofi tabl e . The lack of " ploughbaok" ( 1 5 ) s terns f'rom borrow·ing done prior to the wool s lwnp and c o st price spiral . \E\E��"'.N� NO 0 � wE�"-'a� � e:t.Fe'R.� \o �E: ���. �a\... �\.1.��� SEL\.... ��"�W � ����O�\JG c.cw� V>�'l:.l\TT El-.1\J ��E:EO:I:NG c...� '-C.. V.. \-pt\\::: � v.w..... � �'-\':: � �� � 'V-u.�c..�\-vse� <:...�\-C..U\...�E C...'A�N(.,� :t.'N \....:I:.\J��\C<..� B4 ��"-\��'0...� \J�\...V.� , �""'��� �(C�� �w � N �' ::c"-1 c..c ""'\;: (.:\�\J� C....C\ '-c...v.. '-�""T:!.. (:)� ':::. ��� 7v.'\J(.\o\\E_\) R\E Q..\l.:t.a..� � APPENDIX C A METHOD OF REDUCING TriE BASE Y EA H POST TAX CASH S UR P LU S If\ GA.RDI\ ER 1 S PROGRAH Gardner 1 s program calculates the profi tability of C 1 development us ing the pres ent value measure . In so doing the bas e year pos t tax cash surplus is us ed as the level of personal drawings throughout developmen t . This sum is us ed irrespective of the figure allowed for (by the adviser o r farmer ) in the phys ical development plan . ( 1 ) Consequ . .. L tly i t as swne s that development is financed entirely by borrowed money . ( 2 ) For the development programmes analysed this had the effe c t of rendering them �mprofi table . I t was therfore ne c e s s ary to evaluate the profitabi l i ty of the programmes w1.der realis tic levels of pers onal drawings . In order to do this a method had t o be devised to reduce the bas e year pos t tax cash surplus , The me thod us ed and the rat ional e for it is outlined in this appendix . B 1 Reduction of the Bas e Year P o s t Tax Cash Surplus The method us e d to divert income from c onsumption t o development was t o add on additional c o s t t o the bas e year expenditure . This reduced the bas e year post tax cash surplus by the added c o st less the reduction in taxation e . g . for repres entative farm F and an 80 per c ent equity , adding a c o s t of $ 1 , 893 effec t ively reduced the base year post tax ( 1 ) In this s tudy a sum of $ 2 , 000 was used as the level of personal drawings during development . ( 2 ) Obviously if the pre-development pos t . tax cash surplus i s required for pers onal drawings and this l evel i s maintained during development then no surplus farm income i s being inves ted in farm development . C 2 c ash surplus ( 3) by $ 1 , 467 ( $ 1 , 893 minus reduced taxation of $ 426 ) . As a result the amount of off farm capital required to finance the progranune 1vas reduce d by $ 1 , 1+ 67 per annum. This is s imilar to inves ting $ 1 , 467 of' surplus farm income i n development . Adding the addi tional cos t does not invalidate the pos t tax pres ent value figure . The same cash flows are s till involved . The effe c t of increasing the bas e year expenditure i s t c reduce the figures for the additional expenditure before tax and the addi tional expenditure afte_£ tax during phys ical development . This i s equivalent to reducing the actual overdraft figure by the amount of the pos t tax inc ome diverted to development . Thes e aspects are illus trated by tables B 1 and B2 . Table B 1 is the actual computer printout of the example previous ly mentioned . The bas e year surplus has been reduced from $ 3 , 467 t o $ 2 , 000 by adding an additional c o s t of $ 1 , 893 to the bas e year . The data in table B2 has been hand budgeted using the a ctual bas e year surplus i . e • . $ 3 , 4 67 . The reason for hand budge ting was to allow $ 1 , 467 of pos t tax income to be us ed each year for financing development . Thi s enables a check t o be made on the val idi ty o f the pos t tax present value figure in table B 1 . Because o f different figures for total expenditure and taxation ( $ 1 0 , 1 46 and $ 48 for B1 and $ 8 , 253 and $474 fof B2 ) the figures in column ( 1 0 ) and ( 1 1 ) diffe r . All o ther figures are identical . ( 4 ) ( 3 ) And hence the level of pers onal drawings us ed in calculating the pres ent value . C3 In table B 1 the addi ti onal overdraft figure ( co lunm 5 ) is equal to the added expendi ture af'ter tax ( c olwrm 1 1 ) minus the addi tional gross income ( column. 8 ) . i . e . additional overdraft = $ 1 , 1 8 1 - ( -$ 1 , 1 7 1 ) = $ 2 , 35 2 ( 5 ) In table B2 the addit i onal overdraft figure has been calculated in the same way except that from this figure has been subtracted $ 1 , 467 which is available for financing development . i . e . additional overdraft = $ 2 , 648 ( -$ 1 , 1 7 1 ) - $ 1 , 4 67 = $ 3 , 8 1 9 "" $ 2 , 352 $ 1 , 467 This i s exactly the same figure as in table B 1 . S inc e the s e figure s are the same the overdraft interest incurred in year one but which becomes chargeable in year two , is identi cal for the two s i tuations . Hence the t otal expenditure figures , the taxabl e income figures (not sho>vn ) and the t o tal tax figures , are the same . This pro c e s s is repeated throughout the financial evaluation. The additional overdraft and the additional cash surplus e s are the added profits from development . S inc e the s e are the same the pres ent values calculated by the computer ( table B 1 ) and by hand ( table B2 ) are als o the s ame . Thus adding an addit ional c o s t t o the bas e y ear expenditure , in order t o divert p o s t tax income from c onsumption t o development , does ( 4 ) This i s not s trict ly true , The corresponding figures do vary by one or two due to rounding errors in the c omputer program . ( 5 ) The actual figure shown is $ 2 , 353 . a rounding error . The e rror o f one i s not invalidate the pos t tax pres ent value calculati on . Adding an artificial cos t t o the bas e year expendi ture would, however , give an incorre ct pr e tax pres ent value ( 6 ) c alculation , becaus e the added expendi ture before tax would be incorrect . ( 6 ) This i s the profitability o f the development progranune to the nation . Table B·1 Ac tual C omputer Printout I Overdraft , Year Bas e Cumu- Cumu- Additional Additional Tax Actditiona} l To tal Added Added Year lative lative Overdraft C a s h Gross Ex pen- Expen- Expen- Interes t Surplus Over- Credit Surplus Income diture diture di turc draft Before After Tax Tax ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 3 ) ( 4 ) ( 5 ) ( 6 ) ( 7 ) ( 8 ) ( 9 ) ( 1 0 ) ( 1 1 ) ( 1 2 ) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ I Base 2000 48 1 0 1 46 I 1 2353 - 2353 - - - 1 1 7 1 1 1 375 1 226 1 1 8 1 - 2 4694 - 234 1 - - - 1 40 1 239LJ- 2245 2 200 1 4 1 3 7 1 4 1 - 2446 - - 570 1 32 1 1 3062 30 1 7 281 4 7569 - 428 - 1 66 1 563 1 20 1 9 1 870 1 9 9 1 4 28 5 65 1 3 - - 1 055 666 2504 1 0 976 827 1 448 454 6 4 295 - - 221 8 1 299 3449 1 0 1 26 - 22 1 23 1 390 2294 1 35 6 3449 i 7 2000 - - 9993 - 1 50 1 1 55 257 8 372 - 2372 1 4 1 5 3449 9 855 - 293 1 07 6 1 20 9 28 1 1 - 2439 1 469 3449 9735 -4 1 3 1 0 1 0 - I Post Tax P re s ent Value $ 24 , 1 75 Payback Y ear 8 r-:--Increas e In P os t Tax . $ 2 , LJ-J9 Vt Drawincs Table B 2 Hand Budgeted C omparis on O f Data In B 1 Year Base _ Cwnu- Cwnu- . Additi onal Addit ional Additional Tax Total Added Added Overdraft Year lative lative Overdraft Cash Gro s s Expen- Ex pen- Expen- Interes t Surplus Over- Credi t Surplus Income di ture diture di ture draft Before After Tax Tax ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 3 ) ( 4 ) ( 5 ) ( 6 ) ( 7 ) ( 8 ) ( 9 ) ( 1 0 ) ( 1 1 ) ( 1 2 ) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Base 3467 474 8253 1 235 2 - 2352 - - 1 1 7 1 - 1 1 375 3 1 22 2648 - 2 4692 - 2j40 - - 1 40 - 1 2394 4 1 4 1 3667 1 4 1 3 7 1 39 - 2447 - 570 - . 1 3 2 1 1 4958 4484 28 1 4 7567 - 428 - 1 5 63 1 66 1 20 1 9 3766 3458 428 5 65 1 1 - - 1 056 2504 666 1 0 976 2723 29 1 5 45 '+ 6 4293 - - 22 1 8 3449 1 299 1 o -1 26 1 873 2698 390 7 1 99 9 - - 2294 3449 1 35 6 9993 1 740 2622 257 8 374 - 2373 3449 1 4 1 5 9855 1 60 2 2543 1 20 9 28 1 3 - 2439 3449 1 469 9 735 1 482 2477 - P os t Tax Pres ent Value $ 24 , 1 75 Payback Year 8 Increas e In P o s t Tax Drawin gs $ 2 , 439 0 0\ APPETDI X D GROSS .HARGINS FOH BHEEDIT\'U EI·.'ES AND DREEDIN"G COIV"S ON HORO \I; H E.N LJA J li LL COUNTRY D 1 This appendix calculates the l ikely gros s margins for a breeding ewe and breeding cow on the Horowhenua hill country . In determining the gros s margins , average s to ck per:formances recorded in the two surveys have been us ed . The. result of the calculations indicates that for the given assu111p tions , bree · . . _lg ewes are likely t o be more profitable than breeding c ows . The degree of profitability 1vi ll vary with individual farms depending upon the s tock performance obtained and with the re lative cattle and sheep pric es . For farmers wi th high calving percentages and low cat tle l os s es i t i s poss ible that breeding cows may be more profitable than breeding ewes . On the ::naj ori ty of hill country farms hmvever , the bre eding ewe will yj_ eld a greater financial re turn . De t�_ination of Gross Hargin§. Basi c Data ( i ) Breedir�g E\,,e Lambing percentage 1-lo o l Production D eaths �ve replacement rate Ewe equivalent ( i i) Breeding C ow Calving percentage D e aths C ow replacement rate Ewe equivalent 85 per cent e1ve 8 . 5 lbs lamb 2 . 0 lbs ewes 5 per cent cas t-for-age five years one 85 per c ent cows 6 per cent cmvs culled as e ight year olds five Prices ( i ) ( i i ) Gross ( i ) B r e e d ine;: E>ve ivo o l $0 . 2 2 . 5 per C ,F . A . ewe $ 3 . 20 S tore shorn lamb $�- . 00 Replacement ewe $ 6 . 00 Cat t le lv eaners $35 . 00 Cull CO\vS $ 65 . 00 Replacement c ow $ 80 . 00 Marg:in Breeding E\,Te Gro s s Returns 1 0 . 0 lb wool at 22 . 5 c per • 85 lamb at 4 . 00 • 25 C . F .A , ewe at 3 . 20 Variable Costs Shearing C rutching Animal Health Deaths Depreciation Intere s t ( 7% ) Gros s Margin per Breeding Ewe 0 . 20 0 . 0 6 0 . 32 0 . 30 1 . 50 0 . 42 pound pound 2 . 25 3 . 4o � $ 6 . 45 $ 2 . 80 D 2 ( �� ) Breeding C ow Gro s s R e turns • 85 lv e aner S teer at $J5 . 1 7 Cull c ow at $ 65 Variable C osts Supplementary fee d ( 5 bales of hay per c ow at 50c per bale ) 2 . 50 Animal Health 0 , 80 Deaths 4 . 80 Depre ciat i on 1 J , 6 6 Intere s t ( 7% ) Gross Margin per Breeding e o,., Gros s Hargin per Ewe Equivalent s . 6o 29 . 75 1 1 • os $ Z4 0 . 80 $ 1 J . 44 $ 2 . 69 On a per ewe equivalent bas i s the gros s margins are : - Bree ding ewe Breeding c ow $J . 65 $ 2 . 69 DJ E1 APPENDIX E THE COST OF C L E A R I N G 1vEEDS ON THE I IOHO\vHE�UA HI LL COUNTRY The development of unproductive hill country involves c learing the land of one or more maj or weeds . Thes e weeds include gors e , fern , tauhinu and manuka s crub . S ome areas of native bush can also be succe s sfully cleared . I t is neces sary to know the cost involved in clearing weeds in o rder t o give s ome priority to the allocation of capi tal . C apital is one factor which limits land deve lopment . I t mus t therefore be allocated to processes which give the greate s t return from i t s us e . This appendix lists land development methods us ed on the Horo>vhenua hill c ountry . C o s ts are a s s es sed on both a per a cre and a per ewe equivalent increase basis . The c o s ts given were those ruling in 1 9 69/70 . E1 Dens e Tauhinu The tauhinu can either be cut and then burnt or burnt ( 1 ) stan.ding . Both methods have been succe s sfully used . Cutting increas e s the cos t but may be preferable in s ome areas where tauhinu reinfes tation i s a problem and in s ome s easons >-rhen poor burns are likely . Burning i s carried out in the autumn after >vhich the area is overs O\m with a sui table s eed mixture ( 2 ) and s ix hundred weight ( 6 cwt ) of molybdic ( 1 ) Up to eighty per c ent of the tauhinu is likely t o be burnt . ( 2 ) S e ed mixture s will vary according t o individual farmers preferences . However , a suitable seed mixture should include a high proportion of c lovers and s ome grass s eed e . g . cre s t ed dogtail , to suppl ement lmv fertility natural grass es . Rye grass is the mos t desirable gras s species t o have in a new pas ture but e s tablishment from oversmving on this c las s o f hill country has not been good. superphosphate ( J ) per acre . In the s pring 4 cwt of superphosphate i s applied followed by annual appli cations o f maintenance fertiliser . Any regro\vth tauhinu is cut or pulled by hand at various intervals . An initial increas e in carrying capacity of 2 . 5 ewe equivalents ( E . E . ) per acre is pos sible . ( 4 ) D eve lopment C o sts Dollars P er Acre F encing 8 . 00 Cutting ( 5 ) 2 . 00 S ee d 5 . 00 Fertilis er 1 _7 . 00 S to ck 1 5 . 00 C o s t per acre $ 47 . 00 C o s t per ewe equivalent increas e $ 1 8 . 80 E2 Manuka S crub E 2 Depending on the t opography the manwca s crub can be e i ther cut by hand or wi th a flail chopper . ( 6 ) The manuka ( J ) The ini tial fertiliser application should be n1olybdic superphosphate as the maj ority of hill country i s molybdenum responsive . This is especially true o f areas c overed with tauhinu . ( 4 ) The increases in s tocking rates are thos e actually obtained in the first two years by hill c ountry farmers in the Horowhenua region . Individual farmers may obtain higher or l ower increases becaus e of s easonal influences e . g . drought or managerial ability . ( 5 ) This figure is the cost of cutting unburnt tauhinu . ( 6 ) This tractor drawn machine c ons ists of a s eries of rotary blades which cut and crush the manuka . EJ i s then burnt and overs own in the autw1m wi th s e e d and 5 cwt of molybdi c superphosphate . In the spring ano ther J cwt of superphosphate is applied followed by annual maintenance applications . Ini t ial s to cking rate increase s of 2 . 5 E . E . per acre have been achieved within two years . Development Costs Method One - Hand Cutting Dollars Per Acre CuttiHg 20 . 00 Fencing 8 . 00 S e ed 5 . 00 F ertiliser 1 3 . 60 S tock 1 5 . 00 C os t per acre $ 6 1 . 60 C o s t per ewe equivalent increase $ 24 . 64 Method ��o - Machine Cutting Dollars Per Acre Cutting and crushing 5 . 00 Fencing 8 . 00 S e ed 5 . 00 Fertili s er 1 3 . 00 S tock 1 5 . 00 C o s t per acre Cost per ewe equivalent increase EJ Fern $46 . 60 $ 1 8 . 64 There are two methods of clearing land infes ted with bracken fern and water fern . ( ? ) The difference in the two ( 7 ) S 0me times known as hard fern . approaches i s r elated to the extent to whi ch the vegetation has been burnt in the pas t . I f the vegetation has not previous ly been burnt the mo s t e f f e c t i ve method i s burning in the autunm follmv-ed by overs owing with s e ed and 5 cwt of molybdic superphosphate . Thi s i s followed by another J cwt of superphosphat e in the spring . Qui cker es tabli shment of pas tu res oc cur from this method than from crushing '"i th cattle and then overs owing . However , the latter method i s pref.:.. : :red on areas which have been frequcn tly burnt in the pas t . I ncreas es o f 2 . 5 E . E . per acre have been achieved in two years . Development C o s t s Do llars Per A cre Fencing 8 . 00 Fertiliser 1 3 . 00 Seed 5 . 00 S t ock 1 5 . 00 Co st per acre $ 41 . 30 C os t per ewe equivalent increas e $ 1 6 . 5 2 E4 S cattered Bush The area to be developed is fenced off and cattle used t o clear the under growth and break down s ome of the smaller bush. ( 8 ) In the autunm the bush i s burnt and overs ovrn with 7 cwt of molybdic superphosphate and a suitable s eed mixture , ( 8 ) To be suc c e s s ful it is necessary to graze cattle hard . This can re sult in high los s e s . Individual farmers may prefer to cut more bush . and graze cattle more l eniently . The unburnt bush can be cut wi th a s lasher or chainsmv- . I n the spring J cwt o f superphos phate is applied and thereafter annually . An initial increas e in carrying capacity of 1 . 5 E . E . per acre i s pos s ible after two years . ( 9 ) Development C osts Dollars Per Acre F encing 8 , 00 Cutting 6 . 00 F ert��iser 1 7 . 00 S eed 5 . 00 S tock 9 , 00 C os t per acre $4s . oo C os t per ewe equivalent increas e $JO , OO ES Dens e Gors e ES The author was unable to obtain detailed financj_al c o st s for the c learing of dense gors e in the survey area . Hence the costs shO\m are e s timated c o s ts . A small area i s fenced off and burnt in the autumn , The burn is then. overs own with s e ed and 6 cwt of molybdic superphosphate per acre , In the spring J cwt of superphos- phate is applied , The area is s tocked in a way which allo·w-s the clover t o establish over the winter . The s t ocking rat e i s then increased in the spring in order to control the regrowth gorse , ( 1 o ) Follow up s prays commencing in the ( 9 ) This lower init ial increas e is due to lower natural! fertility, ( 1 0 ) A better result will be obtained with wethers but the s e are l e s s profitable than ewes . I f blocks are small enough and the e've numbers high enough there may be sufficient dry ewes and hoggets to provide the nece s sary s tock c oncentrations . E6 s e cond year are necessary to kill the regrowth not controlled by the stock . Initial increas es o f 2 . 5 E . E . have been recorded within two years . Development C o s t s Do llars P e r Acre Fencing S e ed ( 1 1 ) Fertiliser S tock Spraying ( 1 2 ) C o s t per acre C o s t per ewe equivalent increas e 8 . 00 1 0 . 00 1 5 . 00 1 5 . 00 J6 , 00 $ 84 . 00 $ JJ . OO Table E1 gives a swnmary of development c osts as s oc iated with the removal of weeds on the Horowhenua hill c ountry . The table indicates that land covered in fern i s the cheapes t land to develop while land covered in dens e gors e i s the mos t expens ive . Areas of bush and gors e should only be developed after land has been cleared of fern , tauhinu and manuka . Table E-1 Land Development Co st s Development O f Cost Per Ini tial E . E . Acre Increas e -- Dens e tauhinu 47 . 00 2 . 5 Manuka s crub ( i ) 6 1 • 60 2 . 5 (i:i) 46 . 60 2 . 5 Fern 4J , JO 2 . 5 Bush 45 . 00 1 . 5 Dense gors e 84 . 00 2 . 5 C o st Per E . E . Increas e 1 8 . 80 24 . 64 1 8 . 64 1 6 . 52 JO , OO J J , 60 ( 1 1 ) ( 1 2 ) Spraying kill s the clover plants and a s e cond oversowing i s often required . This allows for spraying of the gorse over s everal y ears . F 1 APPENDIX F THE PRESENT VALUE NE.�. � -iURE OF PROFITABILITY This appendix outlines the present value measure us ed to determine the profitability of future development . An evaluati on of profitability i s necessary in order to : ( i ) de termine lvhe ther the combination of inputs c ompris ing the devel opment programme i s likely to be profitable . ( i.i ) de termine which of the alternative development programmes is the mos t profitable . Farm development can be regarded as a c ontinuous input ( 1 ) continuous output process . Inputs of capital are followed by cash returns in one or more succeeding y ears . The flo1v of benefits usually takes the form of gros s output . This c ommences s ome t ime after the ini tial input and continues for a varying period int o the future . The flow of c o s ts generally c ons i st s of a heavy ini tial investment and a flow of operating c o st s . The s tream of benefits and costs can be brought t o a c omparable bas is ·by using c ompour�d interest t e chniques . ( 2 ) All values can e i ther be c ompounded forward t o a c ertain point ( 1 ) 1-lhile many inputs in farm development can be applied in a s ingle time period e . g . f encing , o thers can be regarded as s el f generating and capable of improvement to a higher productive capacity with the passage of t ime . In addit i on management and biological factors c ould well dictate an ordered s equence of inves tment over s everal t ime periods . ( 2 ) The rationale for the us e of c ompound interes t i s that any specific development programme ties up res ources which c ould have been used for alternative inves tment . F 2 in time o r dis counted back t o the present . ( J ) Usually the latter method is employed us ing a s elec ted rat e of in t eres t . ( lf ) Benefi t s from inves tment o c cur in the form of income and capital gains . Allowance has t o be made f o r capital gains and this i s usually done by cap i tali s ing the post development surplus . The present value measure is then defined as the sum of the disc ounted additional surplus es during development plus the dis counted additional surplus es after development , capi talised at the s e lected J..' c< c e of interes t . ( 5 ) F 1 Calculat ing Pres ent Value For calculating the pre s ent value of a development progrrurune , a bas e year ( 6 ) ( with i ts fixed relationships between inputs and outputs ) is us ed as a bench mark . The variations from this are imputed as the benefi ts and costs as s o c iated wi th the development programme . ( ? ) ( J ) Both me thods will provide exactly the same answer to such ques ti ons as " i s the inves tment a profitable one ? . " ( 4 ) The rat e s elected tends to be a value judgement and is usually the current rate of interes t . Where a large amount of uncertainty is pres ent the di scount rate i s often adjus ted ( i . e . increased ) t o allow for this in value t e rms . ( 5 ) An alternative approach i s to s o lve the s treams of benefits and c o s ts for the internal rate of re turn . For a particu­ lar inves tment this i s defined as the rate of intere s t at whi ch the pres ent value o f gross revenues and pres ent values of expenditures are equal , i . e . ne t pre s ent value is zero . The inves tment with the highe s t internal rate of return is , however , not necessarily the mos t profitable . ( 6 ) A bas e year represents the management of the farm immediately prior to deve ·lopment . ( 7 ) The pres ent value method i s e s s entially s tudying t\vo s i tuati ons ; one in which development has not o c curred and one \vhere development has been carried out . The undevel oped s i tuation is us ed as the base for c omparing the developed s ituation . F3 There are four maj or s teps in calculating the net pres ent value . ( 8 ) Thes e are : - ( i ) determining the pre-development cash surplus s i tuat i on . ( i i ) e s timating development inputs and costs , the input levels and the profits during the development peri od , , ( i i i ) calculating the post devel opment cash surplus . ( iv ) defining the additional profits due to development . The method o f de termining the present value can be illus trated by means of a hypothe ti cal example . C ons ider a development programme that runs for five years 1vi th the post development s i tuation be ing reached in year six . As sume that prior t o development the annual cash surplus is $ 2 , 000 and during development cash surpluses o f $ 1 , 000 , $ 1 , 000 , $ 1 , 500 , $ 1 , 800 and $ 3 , 200 are re corded . After development has been comple t ed the cash surplus increases t o $ 3 , 500 , G iven that the pre-development cash surplus i s $ 2 , 000 then the additional profits ( 9 ) that oc cur during deve lopment are -$ 1 , 000 , -$ 1 , 000 , -$5 , 000 , -$ 200 and $ 1 , 200 , After development has b e en completed the additional annual profit resulting from development i s $ 1 , 500 ( $ 3 , 500 - $ 2 , 000 ) . In order t o determine the pre s ent value i t i s nece s sary ( 8 ) The pres ent value of an inves tment can be expres s e d e i ther as a capital sum , in w·hi ch case i t is kno\m as the net present value , or as an annual payment where i t i s called the annuity payment from the investment , ( 9 ) The additional profits that o ccur as a result of develop­ ment will e i ther be po s i tive or negative depending ·upon the relative s ignificance of the additional revenue and costs that o c cur during development , to bring the s e profit s to a comparable t ime basi s . This i s achi eved by discounting with a s peci fic interest rat e . The pres ent value ( P . V . ) formula for profi ts o c curring during d evelopment i s given by - P . V . = n- 1 E i= 1 "\vhere £ = the sum of Vi n - nwnber of y ears of the development progranun (: r = discount rate expres s ed as a dec imal Vi = development cash profit in the i th year of devel opment . For the example given , the pres ent value is : P • V • = - 1 , 000 - 1 ' 000 -5 , 000 + ( 1 . 06 ) 1 + ( 1 . o6 ) 2 ( 1 . o6 ) 3 - 200 + ( 1 • 06 ) 4 = $- 1 , 5 1 5 1 ' 200 + ( 1 The present value formula for the po st development profits (v ) ( 1 o ) i s : - P . V . "" V 1 r For the example : - P .V . = $ 1 , 500 1 . 06 = $ 1 8 , 680 ( 1 0 ) This formula as sumes that the additional profi t continues indefinitely and that i t remains c ons tant . F5 In general terms the present value formula for the entire s tream of development cash profits is : - Net pre s ent value = n- 1 � Vi V 1 i: 1 r For the exampl e given the net pre s ent value equals - $ 1 , 5 1 5 + $ 1 8 , 680 = $ 1 7 , 1 65 Taxation has been i gnored in this example . The pres ent value determined indicates t'' ..... value o f the development programme to the nat ion . ( 1 •J ) The pres ent value obtained when taxati on i s c onsidered is the pres ent value of the po s t tax added cash profi t s . This represents the value of the development progranune to the farmer . F 2 Problems Involved In Calculating Pres ent Value A number of problems ari s e in us ing the pres ent value measure . Thes e problems include formulating the corre c t bas e year and post development s ituation , specifying an appropriate dis c otmt rate and s e lecting future c o s t s and price s . ( 1 2 ) The difficulties involved create doubts about the validity o f the figures obtained . The pres ent value figure will only be c orrec t i f the development programme i s implemented exactly as specified and all as sumptions hold true . In a dynamic agriculture this is unlikely t o happen . Emphasi s should ( 1 1 ) A development progranune "\vhich i s profitable to the nati on can be m1profitable to the farmer . This i s oecause taxation can c laim more than 1 00 per c ent of the pos t tax profits . Holden ( 6 ) and Cartwright ( 9 ) have given examples of this . ( 1 2 ) A dis cuss ion o f the s e and o ther problems as s o ciated with the present value can be found in ( 34 ) . therefore be on the relative magnitude of the figure rather than the exact figure . S o l omon ( 35 ) has summarised the inadequacies of the :F' 6 pres ent value as a measure o f profitability . H e has s tated that the theoretically correc t measure of pres ent value i s s o uns table with respect t o pro j e c t life and return o f a pro j e c t that s imple measures such a s Payback which doe s allow for obs ole s c ence , te chnical change and nncertainty of the future may be j us t as us e ful in real ,,rorld investment decis ions . Us e of the present value measure does , however , reflec t the s i ze of the pro j e ct and provides a pro j e c t rarucing . Alternative us es for money necess itate the s e l e c tion of an opportuni ty c o s t of capital and the measure recognis es the subj ective time preference o f people for money . The measure als o allows for income and expenditure streams which fluctuate over t ime . F or thes e reas ons i t i s a better measure of profitability than ratio measures , such as Re turn on Capi tal , or the P ayback measure which fail in respect t o one or more of these cri teria . G 1 APPENDIX G SUPPLEMENTARY EVALUATION DATA FOR REPRESENTATIVE FARH F This appendix c ontains addi t ional evaluation data from the three deve lopment programmes analysed for repres entative farm F , The data i s c ontained in tables which are s elf explanatory . Data in tables G·1 , G·2 , G-J , G·4 , Gy and G8 aug·ment sun�ary data in chapter s ix . Data in tables G..S , G6 , G-9 and G� O indicate the effect of the fertiliser subs idy on develop­ ment programmes two and three . Table G-1 Programme One - Annual Overdraft Requirements and Intere s t Charges For Various Equi ty Levels •, Development An..."YJ.ual Overdraft Cumulative Overdraft Overdraft Interes t Year $ $ $ E8 E7 E6 E5 E8 E7 E6 E5 E8 E7 E6 E5 1 1 5 55 2242 3007 3400 1 555 22lJ-2 3007 J400 - - - - 2 2066 2795 3606 40J8 3622 5037 66 1 3 74 23 93 1 34 1 80 204 3 3362 4 1 34 4994 5468 6985 9 1 7 2 1 1 607 1 285 8 2 1 7 30 2 396 445 4 289 1 37 1 0 462 1 5 1 39 9877 1 2882 1 6 229 1 80 1 2 4 1 9 550 696 77 1 5 ft 65 1 1 4 800 1 21 9 9225 1 2896 1 7029 1 9 1 6 6 5 9 2 77 2 973 1 08 1 6 �1 44 1 + 7 72 + 1 403 7 78lJ 1 2 1 23 1 7028 1 9483 553 773 1 0 2 1 1 1 49 -------- Q 1\) --- -- Table G--2 Programme One - Post Development Data Equity Gross Income Total Cash Taxable Taxa ;ion Pos t Tax Expenditure ( 1 ) Income Cash Surplus $ $ $ $ $ E1 0 1 6 , 469 1 1 , 086 7 , 088 1 ' 883 5 , 383 E8 1 6 , 469 1 2 , 1 25 6 , 206 1 ' 466 4 , 344 E7 1 6 , 46 9 1 2 , 627 5 , 780 1 ' 28 1 3 , 84 2 E6 1 6 , 469 1 3 , 1 4 1 5 , 3 25 1 ' 093 3 , 266 E5 1 6 , 469 1 3 , 665 4 , 8 1 2 897 2 , 804 Note - ( 1 ) Does not include pers onal drawings . The pos t tax cash surplus is the sum which is available for personal drawings . -- i Q \...,J Table G;3 Programme Two - Annual Overdraft Requirements and Interes t Charges For Various Equity Levels Development Annual Overdraft Cumulative Overdraft Overdraft Interes t Year $ $ $ E8 E7 E6 E5 E8 E7 E6 E5 E8 E7 E6 E5 1 2350 3037 3802 4 1 95 2350 3037 3802 4 1 95 - - - - 2 2339 3067 387 8 4289 4690 6 1 05 768 1 8484 1 4 1 1 82 228 25 1 3 2444 32 1 6 4075 45 1 6 7 1 34 932 1 1 1 75 7 1 300 1 28 1 366 460 509 4 425 1 1 24 1 9 88 2456 7559 1 0446 1 3745 1 5456 428 559 705 7 80 5 + 1 058 +40 1 379 726 650 1 1 0004 1 4 1 24 1 6 1 82 453 626 824 927 - Q +:" Table G-4 Programme Two - Pos t Development Data Equity Gross Income To tal Cash Taxable Taxa l .Lon Expenditure ( 1 ) Income $ $ $ $ E1 0 1 5 , 645 9 , 932 7 , 1 29 1 , 903 E8 1 5 , 645 1 0 , 95 3 6 , 2 1 2 1 , 469 E7 1 5 , 645 1 1 , 948 5 , 77 2 1 ' 277 E6 1 5 , 645 1 2 , 0 1 8 5 , 298 1 ' 0 82 E5 1 5 , 645 1 2 , 47 8 4 , 7 77 884 Note - ( 1 ) Does not include personal drawings . The pos t tax cash surplus is i s available for pers onal drawings . ---- P o s t Tax Cash Surplus $ 5 , L�63 4 , 44 1 3 , 946 3 , 375 2 , 9 1 6 the sum which 0 \..rt Table G5 Programme Two - The Effec t Of The Fertiliser Subsidy on Annual Overdraft Requirements . Development Year Equity Bas e Pos t Year 1 2 3 4 . 5 Development Value of the Fertilis er Subsidy ( $ ) 365 5 1 5 665 7 1 5 665 400 400 Reduction In Overdraft ( $ ) E8 j N .� 5 1 5 6 8 4 787 425 � E7 5 1 5 696 7 87 626 E6 5 1 5 696 7 87 7 1 7 379 �N .A . Increas e I n Cash Surplus ( $ ) E8 434 2 1 9 E7 454 227 E6 1 20 237 Reduction In Overdraft ) ) Interes t ( $ ) E8 J 1 7 2 1 20 1 5 6 ) E7 l N .A. lN .A J 1 7 2 1 20 1 57 �N .A . E6 3 1 7 2 1 20 1 6J ) Increas e In Taxation ( $ ) E8 1 1 8 1 2 1 74 234 1 80 E7 98 205 2 1 9 1 74 E6 7 8 68 1 7 9 1 6J Note - � N .A . denotes non applicable . Q 0\ Table G6 Programme Two - The Effec t Of The Fertiliser Subs idy On The Profitability Of Development Equity Bas e Year Post Tax � 1 ) Cash Surplus Payback �-----.-----,.-�--��---.--=---.-�--��--�year) D Pres ent Value Maximum Overdraft A A B c c A I B c $ E8 Subsidy 2000 29760 No Subsidy 2000 24 1 75 E7 Subsidy 2000 20370 No Subsidy 2000 1 45 1 2 E6 Subsidy 2000 931 2 No Subsidy 2000 - Notes - 26430 1 235 81 1 21 1 3 6 1 8542 5 1 37 l 5 1 7 2 l 5 1 99 I 7559 7 635 7702 7 8 1 7 656 1 4853 1 7 830 I 7 899 1 7 969 1 9 1 2045 9929 1 0446 1 0548 1 0 641 1 1 7 233 s443 1 1 64 1 1 1 1 1 32 , 1 1 227 1 1 3 1 4 1 24 * I 7 8 I 9 1 1 I 1 4 ( 1 ) Used as the level of pers onal drawings in calculating profitability . ( 2 ) * Denotes payback not achieved within nineteen yBars • . ( 3 ) A = 6 . 0 per cent interes t . B = 6 . 5 per cent interes t . C = 7 . 0 per cent interes t . I 7 8 1 1 � 1 1 4 I I I Increas e In Pos t Tax Cash Surplus $ 1 1 93 974 1 25 6 - 1 0 29 1 335 - Q ......J Table G7 Programme Three - Annual Overdraft Requirements and Interes t Charges For Various Equi ty· Levels Development Annual Overdraft Cwuula t i ve Overdraft Overdraft Interest Year $ E1 0 E8 E7 E6 E5 E 1 0 E8 1 862 231 3 3000 3765 h423 862 231 3 2 2 223 3766 4494 5305 6003 30856 6079 J 9 1 6 25JJ JJ05 4 1 65 490h 400 1 86 1 2 4 +1 539 + 1 77 5 1 1 1 297 2038 2462 8435 5 +2923 +1 652 +1 0 7 1 + 287 349 46 1 6783 $ E7 E6 E5 E1 0 3000 3765 4423 - 7494 9070 1 0426 5 1 1 0799 1 3235 1 533 1 1 85 1 1 3 1 0 1 4532 1 7369 240 1 0239 1 4 245 1 7 7 1 9 1 47 $ E8 E7 - - 1 38 1 80 36L� 4h9 5 1 6 648 506 678 E6 - 225 544 794 872 Q CO E5 - 265 625 9 1 9 1042 Table GS · Programme Three - Post Development Data Equity Gross Income Total Cash Taxable Expenditure ( 1 ) Income $ $ $ E1 0 1 5 , 1 33 9 , 939 6 , 598 E8 1 5 , 1 33 1 0 , 9 9 1 5 , 6 8 1 E7 1 5 , 1 33 1 1 , 49 9 5 , 24 1 E6 1 5 , 1 33 1 2 , 084 4 , 7 67 E5 1 5 , 1 33 1 2 , 5 62 4 , 246 Note - · - Taxa . ion $ 1 , 642 1 ' 238 1 ' 060 880 698 ( 1 ) Does not include pers onal drawings . The pos t tax cash surplus is is available for pers onal drawings . L.__ __ __ -- - ------------- --------- ----- ------ ------ -- Post Tax Cash Surplus $ 5 , 1 92 4 , 1 40 3 , 632 3 , 047 2 , 5 7 1 the sum which Q \0 Table G9 Programnie �;Three - The Effec t of The Fertiliser Subs idy On Annual Overdraft Requirements Development Year Equity Bas e P o s t Year 1 2 3 4 5 Development Value of the Fertilis� Subs idy ( $ ) 365 565 665 700 490 390 4 1 5 Reduction In Overdraft ( $ ) E8 ) 565 699 776 - - l N .A · E7 lN .A . 565 699 7 7 6 480 - E6 5 65 699 7 7 6 490 - Increase In Cash Surplus ( $ ) E8 246 - - - 450 328 237 E7 265 - - - - 348 247 E6 287 - - - - 357 259 Reduction In Overdraft . Interest { $ ) E8 ) 34 76 1 22 1 50 � N .A . I r .A · E7 34 7 6 1 23 1 5 1 E6 34 7 6 1 23 1 53 Increase In Taxation ( $ ) E8 1 1 9 - - - 1 62 2 1 2 1 7 8 I E7 1 00 - - - 1 33 1 93 1 68 E6 78 - - - 1 1 5 1 86 1 5 6 Note - I � N .A . denotes non applicable . Q -" 0 Table G 1 0 P rogramme Three - The Effec t of the Fertiliser Subs idy on the Profi tability O f Deve l opment . Equity Bas e Yeaf Pre s ent Value Maximum Overdraft P ayback I ncreas e In P o s t Tax 1 ) $ $ . (year ) P o s t Tax Cas h Cash Surplus Surplus $ A B c A B c A B c $ E8 Subs i dy 2000 25 605 22628 20085 6572 6605 6639 7 7 7 No 'Subs i dy 2000 1 9970 1 7 273 1 4 967 8620 8663 8706 9 9 9 673 E7 Subsidy 2000 1 6089 1 3709 1 1 67 2 8702 88 1 2 896 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 No Subs i dy 2000 1 0006 7 885 6063 1 1 32 1 1 1 4 20 1 1 5 20 1 3 1 3 1 3 7 2 3 E6 Subs i dy 2000 4588 2788 1 2 6 1 1 2009 1 2 1 1 2 1 22 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 No Subs i dy 2000 - 1 4539 * Notes - ( 1 ) Us ed as the leve l of pers onal drawings during deve lopment . ( 2 ) * Deno tes payback not achieved within nineteen years . ( J ) A = 6 . 0 per c ent interes t . B = 6 . 5 per c ent interes t . C = 7 . 0 per cent interes t . I - -- --- --------- Q ...... ...... i H 1 APPENDIX H SUPPLE:tviENTARY EVALUATION DATA FOR REPRESENTATIVE FAIDI G This appendix c ontains addi ti onal evaluation data whi ch augments data dis cus s ed in the firs t part of chapter s even . The data i s contained in tables w·hich require no further explanation . Table H-1 Repres entative Farm G - Annual Overdraft Requirements and Interes t Charges F o r V a r i ous Equi ty Leve l s I Development Annual Overdraft Cumulat ive Overdraft Overdraft J nteres t Year $ $ $ ! E9 E8 E7 E6 E9 ES E7 E6 E9 E8 E7 E6 I 1 1 62 3 1 9 2 9 2247 25 65 1 62 3 1 9 29 2 247 2565 - - - - 2 23 1 7 264 2 2979 33 1 6 3940 4 5 7 1 5 2 26 588 1 9 7 1 1 5 1 34 1 5 3 3 4775 5 1 1 8 5 L� 7 6 5 833 87 1 5 9 690 1 0702 1 1 7 1 4 236 274 3 1 3 35 2 4 2666 3030 3409 3787 1 1 38 1 1 27 20 1 4 1 1 1 1 5 502 '"=; 2 2 5 8 1 6� 2 702 5 836 1 1 9 2 1 57 1 1 96 1 1 22 1 9 1 3 9 1 2 1 5 683 1 7 463 682 7 63 846 936 6 + 6 9 1 + 364 + 1 7 340 1 1 5 72 1 3548 1 5 666 1 7 803 733 I 8]4 9l� 1 1 047 I L_ _____ -------- --- --- - - -- -- ------- -- - I ::r: l\J Table H-2 Repre s entat ive Farm G - P o s t Devel opment Data Equi ty Gros s Income Total C ash Expendi tur� 1 ) $ $ E1 0 I 1 3 , 354 9 , 3 1 9 E9 I 1 3 , 354 9 , 63 1 E8 I 1 3 , 354 9 , 874 E7 1 3 , 354 1 0 , 030 E6 1 3 , 354 1 0 , 385 Note - ( 1 ) Does not inc lude pers onal drawings . i s available for pers onal drawings . I Taxable Income $ 4 , 7 22 4 , 55 1 4 , 367 4 , 1 7 8 3 , 990 Taxation $ 7 68 7 1 0 647 5 85 5 2 2 P o s t Tax C ash Surplus -- $ 3 , 935 3 , 7 23 3 , 480 3 , 224 2 , 96 9 The post tax cash surplus is the sum which ::;:: w Table H·3 Repres entative Farm G - The Effe c t of the Fertiliser Subs idy on the Profi tability of Devel opment Base Equi ty Year 1 Value of the Fertiliser Subs idy ( $ ) 1 60 350 Reduc tion In Overdraft ( $ ) E1 0 322 E9 335 E8 N.A. 350 E7 350 I ncreas e In Cash Surplus ( $ ) E 1 0 1 22 - E9 1 26 - E8 1 26 - E7 1 26 - Increas e In Taxation( $ ) E1 0 38 28 E9 34 1 5 E8 JL� - E7 34 - Reduction In Overdraft Interes t ( $ ) E 1 0 >: ) E9 ) ) �N.A. �NA . E8 E7 ) ) Note - I {1T"" N . A . deno tes non appli cable . - Development Year 2 3 4 350 L� 6o 5 1 5 369 502 5 86 370 503 587 37 1 503 588 J7 1 50J 589 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - 1 9 4 2 7 1 20 4 2 72 2 1 43 73 2 1 4J 7 L� -- 5 6 460 460 448 - 448 - 477 - 5 1 5 - - 396 - 406 - 42J - 44 1 1 1 9 1 9 8 1 1 9 1 89 9 2 1 74 54 1 5 9 1 07 1 JlJ. 1 07 1 35 1 09 1 J7 1 09 1 LW P o s t Devel opment 460 ) ) N .A . � 295 300 J04 306 1 65 1 60 1 5 6 1 54 ) ) � N .A . ) I I I I :::r: +- Table H4 Repres entative Farm G - The Ef1e c t of The Fertiliser Subs idy On The Profitability Of Deve lopment Equity ! Bas e Year P o s t Tax ( 1 ) Cash Surplus $ E9 Subs idy 2000 No S ubs idy 2000 E8 Subs idy 2000 No Subs idy 2000 E7 Subs idy 2000 No Subs idy 2000 No t es - Pres ent Value Haximwn A 1 5422 1 29 1 1 · 9 1 45 6949 1 05 9 4 1 3846 8� L� 1 I 5 � 1 -1 j 32 1 0 c A • J 0 766 997 7 1 00 80 •J 0 1 84 , 1 1 5056 1 2220 1 2348 1 2473 1 4 64 1 4 1 1 1 622 , 1 1 74 1 1 1 1 6 22 1 1 4 - 1 3 9 1 2 1 40 60 1 4206 1 8 1 545 1 1 3366 1 1 350 1 1 1 3637 , 1 7 1 63 1 4 * Payback Increas e In ( year P os t Tax Cash B I c S urplus $ I 1 2 I 1 2 I 1 274 1 5 1 5 1 1 00 I 1 4 I 1 4 I 1 290 * * 1 1 1 6 I 1 7 I 1 8 I I 1 1 30 1 il Used as the level of pers onal drawings during deve lopment in calculating profi tability . * Payback is no t achieved wi thin nine teen years . A = 6 . 0 per c ent interes t . B = ·· 6 . 5 per cent int eres t . C = 7 . 0 per cent int eres t . ::r: \.)1 I 1 APPENDIX I SUPPLEHENTARY EVALUATION DATA FOR REPH.ESENTATIVE FAlU-1 A This appendix merely c ontains supplementary evaluation data from the analyse s of the deve lopment progran�e devis ed f or repres entative farm A , The data , c ontained in tables , augments and subs tantiates s tatements made in the s e c ond part of chapter s even . Table I·1 Repres entative Farm A - Annual Overdraft Requirements and Intere s t Charges For Various Equi ty Levels Development Annual Overdraft Cumulative Overdraft Overdraft Intere s t Year $ $ $ E8 E7 E6 * E8 E7 ·)(- E6 * E6 E8 E7 1 937 1 39 6 1 370 937 1 39 6 1 370 - - - 2 364 845 804 1 30 1 2 24 1 2 1 74 5 6 83 82 3 83 579 543 1 384 2820 27 1 1 7 8 1 34 1 3 1 4 + 358 1 33 6 9 1 026 2953 2780 83 1 69 1 80 Notes - ( 1 ) * Personal drawings for E6 equal $ 1 , 232 . ··-- ! ' H !\) Table I·2 Repres entative Farm A - Post Development Data - Gross Income Equity Total ( 1 ) Expenditure $ $ E 1 0 I 1 2 , 887 8 , 662 E8 I 1 2 , 887 9 , 488 E7 I 1 2 , 887 9 , 9 1 2 E6 I 1 2 , 887 1 0 , 587 Note - ( 1 ) Does not include pers onal drawings . available for personal drawings . . I I Taxation Post Tax Cash Surplus I $ I $ 1 ' 1 22 4 , 225 838 3 , 399 7 2 2 2 , 975 539 2 , 300 The pos t tax cash surplus is H \...) Table I·3 Representative Farm A - The Effe c t Of The Fertiliser Subs idy on Annual Overdraft Requirements Equity Bas e Year Year Year Year Y ear One Two Thre e Four $ $ $ $ $ Fertiliser Subs i dy ( $ ) 325 400 425 450 475 Reduc t i on In Annual Overdraft ( $ ) E8 �N.A. 307 323 83 - E7 3 1 6 347 370 1 33 �6 � 7 1 80 1 03 6 9 Increas e I n Cash C re di t ( $ ) E8 247 - - 266 35 2 E7 25 6 - - - 235 E6 25 9 - - - 34 Reduc tion In Overdraft Int ere s t ( $ ) E8 ) ) 1 2 32 55 E7 fA. �N.A. 1 9 40 6 1 E 6 ) 5 9 1 6 Increas e In Taxati on ( $ ) E8 78 9 3 1 1 4 1 33 1 7 8 E7 6 9 84 97 1 20 1 68 E6 66 70 90 96 1 28 No t e - P o s t Development $ 500 jN .A . 3 1 3 3 23 334 jN .A . 1 87 1 77 1 66 ( 1 ) For E6 pers onal drawings are allowed to increas e by $ 259 i . e . from $ 1 , 232 t o $ 1 , 49 1 . - H +:- Table I 4 Repres entative Farm A - The Effect of the Fertiliser Subs idy on the Profitability of Development Equity Bas e Year Pres ent Value Payback Naximum Overdraft P o s t Tax ( 1 ) 1 vP.ar) Cash Surplus A B c A B c A B c $ E8 Subs idy 2000 22774 20630 1 8798 4 4 4 667 669 67 1 No subsidy 2000 1 7462 1 5 7 1 2 1 4240 5 5 5 1 384 1 39 2 1 395 E7 Subs idy 2000 1 5633 1 L�009 1 2624 6 6 6 1 7 89 1 7 99 1 809 No Subs idy 2000 1 0687 941 6 8330 7 8 8 2792 281 7 2842 E6 Subsidy 1 49 1 1 2752 1 1 320 1 0097 7 7 7 2466 2L�80 2493 No Subsidy 1 232 1 1 420 1 0080 8935 7 7 7 27 9 1 281 6 2842 Notes - ( 1 ) Used as the level of pers onal drawings during development in calculating profitability in terms of 8 . pres ent value . 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