Copyright is owned by the Author of the thesis. Permission is given for a copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research and private study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without the permission of the Author. Investigating the habitat suitability of Maungatautari Ecological Island for the reintroduction of kākāpō (Strigops habroptilus) A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Conservation Biology Massey University, Palmerston North New Zealand Alexandra J. Hurley 2017 “They are our national monuments. They are our Tower of London, our Arc de Triomphe, our pyramids. We don’t have this ancient architecture that we can be proud of and swoon over in wonder, but what we do have is something that is far, far older than that. No one else has kiwi, no one else has kākāpō. They have been around for millions of years, if not thousands of millions of years. And once they are gone, they are gone forever. And it’s up to us to make sure they never die out." Don Merton Abstract The kākāpō (Strigops habroptilus) is a large, flightless parrot endemic to New Zealand which was once abundant across mainland New Zealand. However, this nocturnal bird species is now listed as critically endangered with a population of approximately 154 individuals. Kākāpō are currently only found on four offshore, predator-free islands where kākāpō were not found historically - Whenua Hou/Codfish Island, Hauturu-o-Toi/Little Barrier Island, Anchor Island and an unnamed island in Fiordland. However, there is hope to have kākāpō living on mainland New Zealand again with the potential reintroduction of kākāpō to Maungatautari Ecological Island in the near future. Kākāpō breeding is heavily dependent on environmental factors, specifically in that breeding coincides with the mast fruiting of specific plant species, particularly rimu (Dacrydium cupressinum). Therefore, kākāpō breed only once every two to five years which significantly constrains the potential population growth of the species. However, with a record breeding season in 2016 and expectations for kākāpō breeding to continue successfully, kākāpō populations on Whenua Hou and Anchor Island are considered to be nearing capacity. Therefore, identifying sites that contain the environmental factors that favour kākāpō survival and reproduction is an important task. Additionally, finding new habitat sites will help mitigate catastrophe risks and may be used for kākāpō advocacy. The purpose of this research is to assess the habitat suitability of Maungatautari Ecological Island as a potential site for the reintroduction of kākāpō, specifically assessing the density of selected tree species known to induce nesting; and modelling habitat suitability based on key habitat features known to influence kākāpō distribution. A total of 260 adult trees were identified during a distance line transect survey DISTANCE analysis and were used to estimate the density of key tree species across Maungatautari. A maximum distance a priori was set at 100 m and so only trees observed within 100 m of the transect line were recorded. An a priori for the minimum diameter at breast height (DBH) was also set at 30 cm. The results of this analysis found density estimates of 1.113 stems/ha for adult rimu and 2.310 stems/ha for other key adult tree species across the entire study area. These findings are not at all comparable to the stem densities estimated on Whenua Hou/Codfish Island where kākāpō already inhabit and have successfully bred. However, although rimu and other key tree species occur at higher densities on Whenua Hou, the Whenua Hou tree population are most probably much smaller in size in comparison to those on Maungatautari. This suggests that a comparison of basal areas or size distributions between the two sites would indicate that rimu may be closer in biomass to Whenua Hou than in density. Abstract Therefore, based on these comparisons of density, we should not discredit that rimu and other key tree species may occur on Maungatautari at sufficient levels to at least induce breeding attempts by female kākāpō if they were to be reintroduced. This research also combined GIS spatial analysis tools with multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) methods to create a model of habitat suitability which can be used to identify the areas of Maungatautari most likely to sustain kākāpō and support their breeding. The computed habitat suitability map predicted that suitable and moderately suitable breeding habitat for kākāpō occupied 5% and 3% of the mainland island’s area respectively. These areas of suitable and moderately suitable habitat occurred predominantly in the southern regions and in some central regions of the mountain at moderate to high altitude levels. I predict that these areas of the mountain are likely to provide the most adequate sustenance and support for kākāpō survival and breeding, particularly in low podocarp mast years. Habitat located at low altitudes, around the outer regions of the mountain, and in gullies in the central regions are predicted to be unsuitable for breeding, particularly in years when podocarp and rimu fruit supply is limited. Areas predicted to be unsuitable for kākāpō occupied 77% of the total area on Maungatautari. To increase the likelihood of a successful reintroduction to Maungatautari, it is necessary to release kākāpō into areas likely to support survival and breeding. Therefore, I recommended that the first cohort of reintroduced kākāpō should be released in the southern and central regions of the mountain at moderate to high altitude levels prior to any other region of Maungatautari. Additionally, modifications need to be made to the existing Xcluder™ fence prior to a reintroduction to prevent kākāpō from climbing outside of the sanctuary boundaries. Acknowledgements I would like to acknowledge a number of people for their continuous support during the various stages of this study, without whom this research would not have been possible. Firstly, I would like to thank my supervisor, Prof. Doug Armstrong, for his academic advice, expertise and constructive feedback throughout this thesis. I would also like to acknowledge the input and support from my co-supervisors, John Innes and Andrew Digby. I would like to thank those that helped extensively with fieldwork, namely Brooke Donoghue and Ash Rowe for their assistance and long hours with me in the field. A special thanks to Rod Miller for his advice on Maungatautari’s monitoring tracks and for organising transport for myself and my field assistants. Also, a big thank you to his team, Warren, Steve, Richard and the rest of the MEIT team for their 4WD skills and transport to my survey track start points each day. I would also like to thank Matthew Lark for assisting with fieldwork permit approval and for coordinating the start date of my fieldwork with the MEIT team. A special thank you to the Department of Conservation’s Kākāpō recovery team and the Waipa District Council for their financial support that helped make this study possible. Finally, a heartfelt thank you to my family and friends for their continuous support over the years, particularly during my Masters study. A special thank you to my parents, Vince and Carol for always supporting all of my endeavours and encouraging me in every aspect of life. Table of Contents Chapter 1 General Introduction ....................................................................................... 1 1.1 Statement of research problem and stimulus for this research ...............................................2 1.2 Habitat ....................................................................................................................................4 1.3 Current knowledge - Kākāpō .................................................................................................7 1.4 Study Site - Maungatautari Ecological Island ......................................................................18 1.5 Research objectives ..............................................................................................................23 1.6 Thesis structure ....................................................................................................................24 Chapter 2 Estimating the density of key tree species on Maungatautari ................... 25 2.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................26 2.2 Methods ................................................................................................................................28 2.3 Results ..................................................................................................................................36 2.4 Discussion ............................................................................................................................43 Chapter 3 Predictive habitat suitability modelling of Maungatautari as a reintroduction site .......................................................................................... 48 3.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................49 3.2 Methods ................................................................................................................................51 3.3 Results ..................................................................................................................................61 3.4 Discussion ............................................................................................................................73 Chapter 4 General Discussion ......................................................................................... 79 4.1 Summary of findings ............................................................................................................80 4.2 Management recommendations ............................................................................................82 4.3 Future research .....................................................................................................................83 References ................................................................................................................................ 86 Appendices ............................................................................................................................. 101 1 Chapter 1 General Introduction Sirocco, an adult male kākāpō on Maud Island. Photo credit: Chris Birmingham Chapter 1 General Introduction 2 1.1 Statement of research problem and stimulus for this research Reintroductions are attempts to restore locally extinct populations to parts of their historical ranges where they were extirpated (Armstrong & Seddon, 2008; Mihoub et al., 2013). Whilst many reintroduction attempts have failed, (Armstrong & Seddon, 2008) a number have succeeded and resulted in the restoration of a number of high profile New Zealand bird species from the brink of extinction, including the Chatham Island black robin (Petroica traversi) and the South Island saddleback (Philesturnus carunculatus), to predator free islands (Sutherland et al., 2010). International reintroduction guidelines have been under development for some time now, and the most fundamental guideline is that it is essential to evaluate the ecological features of a potential release site and the habitat use of a species prior to its release (IUCN, 2013). Habitat plays a crucial role in population persistence and regardless of the strategy used to establish a population, a reintroduction will fail if the habitat at the release site cannot support the species (Armstrong & Seddon, 2008). Therefore, establishing what habitat conditions are needed for the persistence of the reintroduced population is fundamental to any successful reintroduction. Assessing ecological features of an environment prior to a reintroduction can facilitate management planning and actions in a number of ways. These include determining the habitat suitability of the proposed release site and the potential distribution of the species, as well as being able to project the long-term viability of reintroduced populations (Mihoub et al, 2013). Furthermore, assessment of habitat prior to release can help in the design and cost-effectiveness of reintroduction release strategies (Sutherland et al., 2010; Mihoub et al., 2013). The kākāpō (Strigops habroptilus) is a large, flightless parrot endemic to New Zealand. This nocturnal bird species was once abundant across mainland New Zealand but is now classified as critically endangered (IUCN) with an adult population of approximately 154 individuals recorded in 2017 (Elliott, 2017). Kākāpō are currently only found on four offshore, predator- free islands where kākāpō were not found historically – Whenua Hou/Codfish Island, Hauturu- o-Toi/Little Barrier Island, Anchor Island and an unnamed island in Fiordland. However, there is hope to again have kākāpō living on mainland New Zealand in the near future with the potential reintroduction of kākāpō to Maungatautari Ecological Island, located 18 km south of Chapter 1 General Introduction 3 Cambridge in the Waikato Region of New Zealand (McQueen, 2004; Smuts-Kennedy & Parker, 2013). Kākāpō breeding has been found to coincide with mast fruiting of specific tree species, predominantly rimu (Dacrydium cupressinum) trees. Therefore, kākāpō typically only breed once every two to five years (Elliott et al., 2006). This relationship between mast seeding and nesting in kākāpō is speculated to be due to a cognitive trigger rather than a nutritional or chemical trigger (Harper et al., 2006). Harper et al., (2006) hypothesised that female kākāpō nest in response to unripe fruit crops because the presence of these unripe fruit predicts an abundant supply of nutritious ripe fruit during autumn, the period in which kākāpō raise their young. Rimu seed is believed to be the predominant nesting trigger for kākāpō as the ripe fruit of rimu is higher in protein, fat and vitamin D as well as being easier to collect than many other plant species in the kākāpō diet (Eason & Moorhouse, 2006; von Hurst et al. 2015). It has also been found that when rimu fruit is sufficiently abundant it is the sole food source provided to nestlings by the female kākāpō (Cottam et al., 2006). However, other plant species have also been found to be selected for by breeding kākāpō. A study conducted on Hauturu-o-Toi by Stone (2013) found that female kakapo that attempted to breed on Hauturu preferred kauri (Agathis australis) dominated vegetation over any other vegetation type. Therefore, other plant species should be considered as potential food sources and nesting triggers for kākāpō when looking at the vegetation present at Maungatautari Ecological Island. The purpose of this research was to assess the habitat of Maungatautari Ecological Island as a potential site for the reintroduction of kākāpō. Given the low breeding frequency of the kākāpō and the relationship that exists between kākāpō nesting and food abundance, careful assessment of Maungatautari as a potential habitat must be carried out to determine: (i) if the vegetation present at this site is suitable to support kākāpō survival and breeding by quantifying the density of selected tree species known to induce nesting in relation to those as other sites where kākāpō breed; and (ii) to infer the suitability of Maungatautari as habitat by modelling habitat suitability based on key habitat features known to influence kākāpō distribution. Chapter 1 General Introduction 4 1.2 Habitat 1.2.1 General overview of habitat Habitat is often most simply defined as the place where an organism lives (Davis, 1960; Krausman, 1999). However, the meaning in biological science goes further than this and a number of other habitat related concepts must be considered when discussing habitat in relation to wildlife management (Krausman, 1999). The word habitat, as used in English, stems from the Latin habitare, meaning to live or dwell. The term also has the same origins as the word habit, which is the past participle of the Latin verb habire, meaning to have or hold. From these origins the word incorporates both the concept of a space or place having suitable conditions where life can dwell, and the occurrence of particular living organisms in such places and spaces. (Davis, 1960; Wallace, 2007). Habitat has been more comprehensively defined by Krausman (1999) and Morrison, Marcot, & Mannan, (2006) as the resources (food, cover, water) and environmental conditions (temperature, precipitation, and presence or absence of predators and competitors) present in an area that produce occupancy by individuals of a given species (or population) and that allow those individuals to survive and reproduce. Therefore, wherever an organism is provided with such resources and conditions that permit survival and reproductive success, that area is considered a habitat. Thus, even migration and dispersal corridors and the land that animals occupy during breeding and nonbreeding seasons are considered components of habitat. A number of other habitat-related terms are important to consider when discussing the concept of habitat in its entirety including habitat use, habitat selection, habitat preference, habitat availability, habitat quality, and critical habitat. These terms are briefly summarised below. Habitat Use Habitat use is the way an organism uses the physical and biological resources in a habitat (Hall et al., 1997; Krausman, 1999). Habitat use is typically measured as the relative amount of time spent in different areas within a habitat. Therefore, more time spent in a given area means more “use” of resources or conditions at that location (Johnson, 1980). Habitat may be used for various behaviours such as foraging, cover, nesting, escape and denning and patterns of habitat use can often be observed and vary with these described behaviours. Habitat use is also subject to temporal variability as some animal behaviours and Chapter 1 General Introduction 5 activities require specific environmental components that may vary on a seasonal or yearly basis (Krausman, 1999). Habitat Selection Habitat selection is the hierarchical process, involving a series of both innate and learned behavioural decisions, by which animals choose which habitat components (conditions, resources) to use at different scales of the environment (Hutto 1985; Krausman, 1999). Decisions in habitat selection are believed to be driven by inherited behaviours and experiences typically associated with factors such as foraging, cover availability, food quality and quantity, and resting or nesting sites (Krausman, 1999). A number of external constraints can also have an influence on habitat selection for an individual such as competition and predation. Competition is involved in the intraspecific and interspecific relationships between individuals that partition the available resources within an environment. Consequently, competition may result in a species failing to select a habitat that is otherwise suitable in all other resources (Krausman, 1999). The existence of predators may also prevent an individual from occupying an otherwise suitable area. Survival of the species and its future reproductive success are the ultimate driving forces that influence an individual to select for or against a habitat. Therefore, a high occurrence of competition and predators may influence an individual to choose a different site with less optimal resources (Krausman, 1999). Habitat Preference Habitat preference is the result of habitat selection, describing the disproportional use of some resources over others when offered alternative choices on an equal basis (Johnson 1980; Krausman, 1999). Habitat preference can be quantified by the statistical comparison of samples of habitat use and availability. Therefore, preference is contingent on both habitat use and availability (Beyer et al., 2010). Habitat preferences are most noticeable when animals spend a high proportion of time in habitats that are not very abundant on the landscape (Krausman, 1999). Chapter 1 General Introduction 6 Habitat Availability Habitat availability is the accessibility of physical and biological components of a habitat to an organism (Krausman, 1999). Available habitat is usually defined from the total study area; however, not all of the area may be available to an animal as it may be constrained by other factors (e.g. the presence of other animals) that restrict accessibility (Aebischer et al., 1993; Krausman, 1999). Availability differs from the abundance of resources, which refers only to their quantity in the habitat, irrespective of their accessibility to an organism. Measuring actual resource availability is important for understanding wildlife habitat, but in reality it is rarely measured because of the difficulty of determining what is and what is not available from an animal’s perspective. Consequently, quantification of habitat availability usually consists of a priori or a posteriori measure of the abundance of resources in an area used by an animal, rather than true availability (Krausman, 1999). Habitat Quality Habitat quality refers to the ability of the environment to provide conditions appropriate to promote individual fitness and population growth and persistence (Krausman, 1999; Johnson, 2007). Habitat quality as a quantifiable measure is considered a continuous variable ranging from low to high (e.g. depending on the level of resources available to sustain survival and reproduction) (Hall et al., 1997; Krausman, 1999). Habitat quality should be explicitly linked with demographic features of the species of interest rather than density or vegetative characteristics if it is to be used as a useful measure. While population density can be equated with some level of habitat quality, it can also be a misleading indicator of habitat quality. For instance, high density can cause animals to congregate in, or be forced into, areas of low habitat quality whilst a low population density may mean some areas of habitat remain unused or unoccupied even though they are of high quality. Additionally, vegetative characteristics are a poor indicator of habitat quality as a particular plant association may promote high fitness in one animal species but not another (Hall et al., 1997; Krausman, 1999). Chapter 1 General Introduction 7 Critical Habitat The term critical habitat is primarily used as a legal term to describe the physical or biological features essential to the conservation of a species and which may require special management consideration or protection (Hall, Krausman, & Morrison, 1997; Krausman, 1999). However, Hall, Krausman, & Morrison (1997) suggest that critical habitat should be specifically linked with the concept of high-quality habitat, which equates to an area's ability to provide resources for population persistence. This makes it an operational and ecological term rather than a political term (Hall, Krausman, & Morrison, 1997; Krausman, 1999). 1.3 Current knowledge - Kākāpō 1.3.1 Distribution and Status Prior to human settlement, subfossil records indicate that the kākāpō was widespread and abundant throughout New Zealand’s three main islands and inhabited a range of regions from sea level to alpine areas (Powlesland et al., 2006; Millener, 1981). By 1880 a significant decline in kākāpō populations was evident with populations being restricted to Stewart Island, and forested areas of the North and South Island. This was predominantly due to predation by humans and introduced mammals (Butler, 1989; Lloyd & Powlesland, 1994). Remaining kākāpō populations in the North and South Island suffered further rapid declines, and by the early 20th century the kākāpō was extinct in the North Island. By 1976 kākāpō seemed effectively extinct with only a small, male-dominated population known to remain in remote subalpine valleys of Fiordland (Powlesland et al., 1995; Lloyd & Powlesland, 1994). In 1977 a breeding population of kākāpō was rediscovered in southern Stewart Island (Powlesland et al., 1995; Elliott et al., 2006). However, evidence of severe cat predation on adult birds became apparent which prompted the decision to transfer the remaining birds to cat and mustelid-free offshore islands to ensure their survival (Lloyd & Powlesland, 1994; Elliott et al., 2006; Powlesland et al., 2006). Thereafter between 1980 and 1997 all known kākāpō from Fiordland and Stewart Island were transferred to alternative offshore islands (Figure 1.1) and by 2002 kākāpō inhabited five different islands; Hauturu-o-Toi, Maud, Whenua Hou, Anchor and Pearl (Powlesland et al. 2006). Chapter 1 General Introduction 8 Figure 1.1 Islands around New Zealand where kākāpō have been translocated to for conservation efforts. Map compiled in ArcMap GIS. Whilst annual adult survival on these offshore islands had been high, low productivity caused the population to become reduced to a nadir of 51 birds in 1995 (Elliott et al., 2006; Powlesland et al., 2006). A number of intensive management schemes have since been employed raising the population to 154 adult birds as of June 2017 (Table 1.1) (Elliott, 2017). The kākāpō is listed as nationally critical by the New Zealand Department of Conservation, the highest conservation ranking available (Hitchmough, 2002; Powlesland et al., 2006). Chapter 1 General Introduction 9 Table 1.1 The current total kākāpō population across New Zealand offshore Islands (modified from Kakapo Recovery, 2016). *Juveniles are classed as being individuals less than 5 years old. 1.3.2 General biology Kākāpō are a flightless, nocturnal and secretive parrot endemic to New Zealand (Higgins, 1999) and belong to the endemic New Zealand subfamily Strigopinae (Powlesland et al., 2006). They are most distinguishable by their characteristic mottled yellowish-green plumage and large bulky stature (Higgins, 1999). That characteristic and cryptically coloured plumage keeps the kākāpō well camouflaged as it blends perfectly with foliage so that even at close range detection is difficult (Powlesland et al., 2006). Adult birds have a distinctive owl-like facial disc; forward pointing eyes; hair-like feathers; a broad, pale grey beak; robust, fleshy legs and feet; short, rounded wings; and a relatively short, decurved tail (Higgins, 1999; Powlesland et al., 2006). The kākāpō is the heaviest parrot in the world and has pronounced sexual dimorphism in body size (Higgins, 1999; Eason et al., 2006; Powlesland et al., 2006). Males typically weigh 30 - 40% more than females with weights averaging around 2kg for adult males and 1.5kg for adult females. However, the weight of adult males can range from 1.6 to 4.0 kg whilst adult females range from 1.3 to in excess of 2.0 kg (Higgins, 1999; Eason et al., 2006; Powlesland et al., 2006). 1.3.3 Breeding biology and behaviour The kākāpō is the only parrot species known to have a lek-breeding system and possibly the only avian lek species to have evolved in an environment lacking mammalian predators (Merton et al., 1984). In lek mating systems no permanent bonds between sexes are formed, and breeding is driven by the females’ pursuit of mates rather than that of the males. When in breeding condition, adult males will congregate in loose association in courtship areas forming Adults (breeding age) Juveniles* Total Females 57 17 74 Males 59 21 80 Total 116 38 154 Chapter 1 General Introduction 10 a ‘track and bowl’ system (Higgins, 1999). A track and bowl system is comprised of excavated shallow depressions or ‘bowls’ linked by tracks cleared by the birds (Merton et al., 1984; Higgins, 1999). Distances between track and bowl systems of neighbouring birds can vary between 15 and several hundred metres, with groups of up to 50 associated bowl systems extending over several square kilometres (Merton et al., 1984; Higgins, 1999). Male kākāpō use these bowls to perform a range of courting postures and calls, which include a characteristic low pitched, resonant booming call and a high pitched chinging call (Merton et al., 1984; Powlesland et al., 1992; Higgins, 1999). The male produces the booming call by progressively lowering its head and inflating its chest whilst simultaneously producing repeated booms. At maximum chest inflation the kākāpō begins to produce a loud rhythmic boom which can be heard at distances of up to 5 km in ideal conditions (Merton et al., 1984; Eason et al., 2006). The booming season commences in late November and lasts until March. The booming and chinging serenade can last for 6 to 8 h per night, starting 1 h after dark and stopping 1 h before first light (Merton et al., 1984; Higgins, 1999). Additional behaviours associated with booming include side-to-side rocking movements; walking backwards while slowly raising and lowering fully extended wings; vigorous wing-flapping and static postures between booming sequences (Merton et al., 1984). Males have no further parental role after mating, and thus females brood, forage and feed their young alone (Higgins, 1999). Females nest within their own home ranges and have been found to nest at different sites in different years (Powlesland et al., 1992). Nesting sites generally occur in natural cavities at ground level. Nests can be found in holes in banks or rotten trees, under thick vegetation, or in small caves and are typically located within several hundred metres of prime feeding areas (Higgins, 1999). Egg laying occurs from late January to mid- March with two to five eggs laid per clutch however, broods are usually comprised of only 1 or 2 chicks (Williams, 1956; Powlesland et al., 1992; Eason et al., 2006). Egg incubation begins immediately after the first egg is laid and the typical incubation period is 28 to 31 days (Eason et al., 2006). Young are born blind and totally helpless and are brooded by day until approximately 30 days old. During this brooding period, the female leaves her young for long periods at night in order to forage. From about 9 weeks after hatching the young may spend increasing periods away from the nest until they fledge at around 10 weeks (Powlesland et al., 1992, Higgins, 1999). Fledglings typically remain close to the nest for a further month and may associate with, and solicit food from, their mothers until 9 months old (Higgins, 1999). Chapter 1 General Introduction 11 1.3.4 Diet and foraging behaviour Kākāpō are exclusively herbivorous (Best, 1984; Higgins, 1999; Atkinson & Merton, 2006; Butler, 2006). Their diet is extremely diverse in both the number of species eaten and in the part of the plant eaten (Butler, 2006). For example, Gray (1977) found that approximately 80 species of plants were eaten by kākāpō in Fiordland. Plant material that is eaten by the kākāpō can include leaves, twigs, bark, nectar, fruit, seeds, fern pinnae, rhizomes, fungi, ripe sporangia, tussock-grass tillers and roots of herbaceous plants (Higgins, 1999; Atkinson & Merton, 2006). Kākāpō have evolved as opportunistic feeders with highly variable feeding patterns. This flexible feeding pattern allows them to utilise a broad range of seasonal foods, many of which are only available for short periods or in intermittent years (masting species) (Best, 1984; Higgins 1999). Kākāpō have an unusual method of feeding. Their short, powerful beak and broad, thick tongue are well adapted for browsing, crushing and grinding to extract nutrient rich juices from fibrous plant tissues (Powlesland et al., 2006). The chewed fibrous material is compressed in the bill to form a tight wad of fibre which is expelled from the bill with the aid of the tongue as a pellet or ‘chew’. This formation of ‘chews’ is characteristic of kākāpō feeding habit (Higgins, 1999; Butler 2006; Powlesland et al., 2006). Kākāpō rely on this specialised feeding method as their gizzard lacks the muscular development suitable to digest more fibrous plant material (Higgins, 1999; Butler 2006; Powlesland et al., 2006). Kākāpō are typically solitary foragers and mostly forage within their own home range (Higgins, 1999). Whilst foraging occurs mainly on or near the ground, where species diversity is greatest (Butler, 2006), kākāpō are also skilled climbers and are able to reach canopy heights of up to 30 metres (Powlesland et al., 2006). Kākāpō use their bill and powerful feet to climb and move from tree to tree through the canopy. During such arboreal foraging, periods of silence while the bird is feeding can be observed, interspersed with noisy movement of foliage and ample wing flapping as the bird changes position (Higgins, 1999; Butler, 2006; Powlesland et al., 2006). Kākāpō are nocturnal feeders (Best, 1984; Higgins, 1999; Butler, 2006). However, occasionally females with dependent young will forage during daylight, at dawn or at dusk. Foraging activity is usually interspersed with long periods of inactivity (up to 60 minutes) Chapter 1 General Introduction 12 (Higgins, 1999; Powlesland et al., 2006). Whilst the kākāpō has forward-orientated eyes which provide some degree of binocular vision, their sight is considered poorly developed (Corfield et al., 2011). Instead, they use their keen sense of smell, which is well developed (Gsell, 2012), to locate their food. The kākāpō also employs a tactile method when locating their food. When foraging, birds will adopt a near-horizontal posture which brings the lower rictal bristles of their facial disk into contact with the ground. Such sensory perception is considered to be important not only when traversing unfamiliar terrain in the dark, but also when feeding at night on certain foods, such as Aciphylla spp. which have long, rigid, leaves with spiny tips (Higgins, 1999; Powlesland et al., 2006). Breeding has a significant influence on the kākāpō diet as there are differences in diet between breeding and non-breeding years (Wilson, 2004; Wilson et al., 2006). Breeding is known to coincide with the mast fruiting years of a number of tree species. Mast fruiting or seeding is defined as the synchronous production of a heavy seed crop in some years (mast years) by a population of plants or trees, while in other years there is no, poor or only moderate seed production (Norton & Kelly, 1988). In these mast fruiting years, kākāpō predominantly eat podocarp fruits and the incidence of other food sources in their diet significantly declines. Additionally, diets differ between female and male kākāpō in both breeding and non-breeding years. In breeding years, females are most likely to eat podocarp fruit as well as leaves of trees and shrub of Dracophyllum (D. longifolium, D. pearsonii, D. politum) (Wilson, 2004; Wilson et al., 2006). Blechnum fern fronds (B. novae-zealandiae, B. procerum and unidentified species) also appears to be prevalent in the diet of female kākāpō during breeding years (Wilson, 2004; Wilson et al., 2006) suggesting that understorey vegetation may be important during this time (Whitehead, 2007). In contrast, in non-breeding years the incidence of Hall’s totara (Podocarpus laetus) leaf in the diet of females increases. Males are more likely to eat podocarp fruit, fern, Lycopodium rhizomes and monocots (L. ramulosum, L. varium and unidentified species) during breeding years and Manuka (Leptospermum scoparium) fruit in non-breeding years (Wilson, 2004; Wilson et al., 2006). These difference in diets between males and females may be explained by differences in foraging behaviour between the birds, particularly in breeding years. During breeding years females gather food for their chicks while males are predominantly active on the ground in lek breeding areas (Powlesland et al., 1992; Wilson et al., 2006). Chapter 1 General Introduction 13 Podocarp fruits, particularly from rimu, are the preferred food in the diet of breeding females and for provisioning chicks (von Hurst et al., 2016). A study is currently investigating whether this preference is attributed to the high calcium and vitamin D content of rimu berries (von Hurst et al., 2016). Calcium is essential for both egg shell production and the growing skeleton of chicks. Vitamin D is also critical for these processes as well as to utilise dietary calcium and for the maintenance of calcium homeostasis (von Hurst et al., 2016). Ripe rimu berries also provide protein, fatty acids and a range of both digestible and non-digestible carbohydrates which are important for chick growth and adult maintenance (Cottam et al., 2006; von Hurst et al., 2016). 1.3.5 Conservation management The need for conservation management efforts began in the late 1800s following the steady decline in kākāpō population numbers from the mid-1800s onwards as a result of the spread of introduced mammalian predators and human disturbance. Heavy predation of native bird species prompted the New Zealand Government to recognise the need to preserve native bird populations on offshore islands, leading to the purchase of Hauturu-o-Toi, Kapiti, and Resolution Islands as wildlife reserves (Cockrem, 2002). In 1894, the first translocation of kākāpō to a predator-free offshore island was undertaken with the translocation of more than 300 birds from Fiordland to Resolution Island. Unfortunately, stoats were still able to swim to the island from the mainland. However, this endeavour paved the way for using translocation of threatened populations as an important conservation strategy in preserving native bird species in New Zealand (Cockrem, 2002). No further major conservation efforts were undertaken until 1949 when the newly established New Zealand Wildlife Service began searching for kākāpō, predominantly in Fiordland where the last remaining kākāpō were believed to be located (Lloyd, & Powlesland, 1994). These searches led to the discovery of an all-male population near Milford Sound. In the 1960s The Wildlife Service established a captive breeding programme. However, most birds died within a few months and thus captivity was deemed an unviable method for kākāpō management and the programme was abandoned (Lloyd, & Powlesland, 1994; Cockrem, 2002). Chapter 1 General Introduction 14 In 1972, the Wildlife Service adopted a new conservation strategy which concentrated on establishing safe populations by translocating wild-caught kākāpō to offshore islands free of mammalian predators (Lloyd, & Powlesland, 1994). In 1977 a population of 100 to 200 birds was discovered on Stewart Island including the first female kākāpō to be seen in over a century. The discovery of this population prompted a revision of this conservation strategy to include maintenance of the Stewart Island population and it became the subject of intensive research and management during the 1970s and early 1980s (Lloyd, & Powlesland, 1994; Elliot et al., 2001; Cockrem, 2002). A major programme of feral cat control begun in 1982 in an attempt to reduce the rate of predation on kākāpō. However, high rates of predation were still evident, and it became clear that maintaining the kākāpō population on Stewart Island was impracticable due to the population's low productivity and the high cost of predator control. Consequentially, all surviving kākāpō were translocated to three relatively predator-free islands: Whenua Hou, Hauturu-o-Toi, and Maud Island during the 1980s and 1990s (Lloyd and Powlesland, 1994; Cockrem, 2002). The translocation of kākāpō to suitable predator- free offshore islands successfully halted the decline in adult population numbers. However, productivity was found to be low, with only three kākāpō reared to independence from the time the birds were transferred to the islands until 1995 (Lloyd, & Powlesland, 1994; Elliot et al., 2001; Cockrem, 2002). The failure of kākāpō to thrive led to a review of the kākāpō conservation programme in 1995. This in turn led to a new kākāpō recovery plan which included a more intensive and intrusive management of every individual bird to maximise the chances of producing fledged young from a fertile kākāpō egg (Elliot et al., 2001; Cockrem, 2002). This new recovery plan saw significant improvements in kākāpō productivity, with the support of nesting females through supplementary feeding, intensive monitoring and subsequent intervention when necessary (Powlesland et al., 2006). Consequentially, these conservation efforts have seen population numbers increase from 51 birds in 1995 (Elliott et al., 2006; Powlesland et al., 2006) to 149 birds in March 2018. 1.3.6 Kākāpō Habitat Historical habitat use Prior to human and introduced predator disturbance and their consequent decline, kākāpō were known to have occurred throughout the three main islands of New Zealand, from the far north Chapter 1 General Introduction 15 of the North Island to southern Stewart Island (Powlesland et al., 2006). Kākāpō were believed to be habitat generalists, with historic reports indicating they inhabited a range of vegetation types, altitudinal and climatic zones (Higgins, 1999; Powlesland et al., 2006). Kākāpō formerly occurred from near sea-level to the subalpine zone (> 1200 m) and in rolling to extremely steep landforms (Higgins, 1999; Butler, 2006; Powlesland et al., 2006). Kākāpō frequently occurred in temperate forests from lowland podocarp to upland beech. However, they were not an exclusively forest-dwelling species with accounts indicating they frequently associated with grassland habitats as well as other scrubland, herbfields, and tussock grasslands. Kākāpō tended not to penetrate far into tall forest but instead favoured ecotones where forest transitioned into grassland and where they had access to varied food resources (Powlesland et al., 2006). The kākāpō population in Fiordland mostly occupied the subalpine zone at the edge of beech forest, among scrub, and in tussock grasslands on steep slopes of valleys, glaciers or avalanche and alluvial fans (Higgins, 1999; Butler, 2006). Kākāpō on Stewart Island inhabited podocarp forest and subalpine forests and scrub on rolling hilly peatlands (Higgins, 1999; Powlesland et al., 2006). Kākāpō that were translocated to offshore islands from Fiordland and Stewart Island had to quickly adapt to unfamiliar habitat types and food resources, including exotic pastures (Higgins, 1999; Powlesland et al., 2006). Current utilised vegetation and topography The translocation of all kākāpō to predator-free offshore islands has meant they have been exposed to very different vegetation types and topography than what they used historically. Habitat studies have been conducted on Hauturu-o-Toi (Moorhouse, & Powlesland, 1991; Stone, 2013), Maud Island (Walsh et al., 2006) and Whenua Hou (Whitehead, 2007) and describe vegetation and topographical selection by kākāpō on these islands. On Hauturu-o-Toi kākāpō were found in most vegetation types. However, they appeared to have preferred high- altitude vegetation on the island's cooler, wetter southern side. Kākāpō also showed seasonal use of low-altitude forest (Moorhouse, & Powlesland, 1991). On Maud Island, kākāpō showed considerable individual variation in the use of habitats and plant species. Kākāpō fed largely in the treeland community dominated by five-finger (Pseudopanax arboreus) in autumn months, whilst exotic pines (Pinus radiata) were used extensively in spring and summer. Pasture communities were mostly avoided by kākāpō with the exception of boundary areas Chapter 1 General Introduction 16 between pasture and other habitats (Walsh et al., 2006). On Whenua Hou, foraging locations were positively correlated with high-abundance rimu forest with a tall canopy (> 20 m) (Whitehead et al., 2012). Whitehead (2007) found that these areas with higher abundances of mature rimu trees were also optimal breeding habitat. Historically, kākāpō inhabited a range of altitudes. However, kākāpō translocated to islands have been found to have a more limited topographical range. Males translocated to islands have tended to establish home ranges on the upper slopes, high plateaus and summit regions in the warmer months, whilst females have generally settled at slightly lower altitudes on the mid slopes (Powlesland et al., 2006). Climate Kākāpō have historically endured a range of climatic zones with variations in rainfall and temperature. Historical reports indicate that kākāpō have occurred in areas of high rainfall in the Milford region (> 6000 mm per annum) and in areas of low to moderate rainfall in parts of Otago, Canterbury, and Marlborough (< 800 mm per annum) (Powlesland et al., 2006). In Fiordland, some kākāpō lived year-round in subalpine habitat enduring severe winter frosts, snow and ice for up to four to six months each year rather than descending to snow-free valley floors (Higgins, 1999; Powlesland et al., 2006). Kākāpō were also able to withstand high summer temperatures (upwards of 30°C) and dry conditions in parts of Otago, Marlborough, Nelson and the northern North Island. Kākāpō that have been translocated to offshore islands have been found to mostly inhabit relatively cool, moist and shaded slopes (Powlesland et al., 2006). Roost sites Kākāpō are nocturnal feeders and roost during the day (Butler, 2006). The birds roost within their own home range, typically in natural cavities such as small caves, hollow tree stumps or logs, under dry rock overhangs, at the base of trees, or under low hanging branches or ferns (Higgins 1999; Butler, 2006). Individuals often display a preference for roosting either above or on the ground and some sites may be used repeatedly or irregularly over many weeks or even years. Favoured roost sites are typically dark, dry, sheltered from strong winds, and large enough to allow the bird to turn (Higgins 1999; Powlesland et al., 2006). Studies in Fiordland and Stewart Island suggest that kākāpō would wander considerable distances using many different roost sites, each for brief periods of time (Butler, 2006). Chapter 1 General Introduction 17 Home range An animal’s home range is described as the area traversed by an individual in its normal activities of foraging, mating and parental care that contains the resources required by the individual for survival (Farrimond et al., 2006). Both male and female kākāpō are solitary and generally remain within their individual home range for most of the year however, some overlap of home ranges occurs (Powlesland et al., 2006). The sizes of kākāpō home ranges have been studied on a number of islands they have inhabited, including Hauturu-o-Toi, Whenua Hou, Stewart, Maud, and Pearl Islands. These studies have shown a variation in home range sizes among individuals with variations from 15 - 50 ha on Stewart Island (Best & Powlesland, 1985); 21 - 38 ha on Hauturu-o-Toi (Moorhouse & Powlesland, 1991); 2 – 145 ha on Maud Island (Walsh et al., 2006); 0.8 – 11.4 ha on Pearl Island (Trinder, 1998); and a mean home range of approximately 15 ha on Whenua Hou (Farrimond et al., 2006). On Hauturu-o- Toi and Maud Island, kākāpō home ranges have been seen to vary seasonally in location and size, with smaller home ranges in winter recorded on Maud Island (Moorhouse & Powlesland, 1991; Walsh et al., 2006). These observations of home range size have been determined for remnant kākāpō populations which most likely exist at lower population densities than the species naturally would have in the same habitat types prior to the introduction of mammalian predators (Powlesland et al., 2006). Movements Both male and female kākāpō typically use the same home range area for most of the year. However, individuals of either sex occasionally move up to several kilometres from their core home range to sites where they can remain for several days, weeks or even months (Higgins, 1999; Powlesland et al., 2006). These long distance movements are often related to the availability of abundant food, breeding activity or climatic factors. Adult males and females commonly move beyond their core home ranges during late December to early February to visit leks. These visits can entail movements of a few hundred metres to several kilometres (Higgins, 1999; Powlesland et al., 2006; Joyce, 2009). Chapter 1 General Introduction 18 1.4 Study Site - Maungatautari Ecological Island 1.4.1 General background Maungatautari Ecological Island is an isolated andesitic volcanic cone located 18 km south of Cambridge in the Waikato Region of the North Island of New Zealand (38°03′08″S, 175°33′58″E) (McQueen, 2004; Doerr et al., 2017). The mountain is a dominant landform in the region encompassing a large area (3363 ha) of largely intact dense, mature podocarp- broadleaved forest (Smuts-Kennedy & Parker, 2013; Doerr et al., 2017). Maungatautari is 797 m in height at its highest point and has three peaks – Te Akatarere (727 m), Pukeatua (753 m) and Maungatautari (797 m) (Waipa District Council, 2005). Figure 1.2 Map of Maungatautari Ecological Island showing its location within the Waikato region, New Zealand. Map compiled in ArcMap GIS. The topography ranges from strongly rolling slopes at the base of the mountain to steep and very steep slopes near the peaks and in the gullies (Smuts-Kennedy & Parker, 2013). The lower margins of the forested mountain are primarily dominated by scattered large rimu and northern rata (Metrosideros robusta) over a canopy of abundant tawa (Beilschmiedia tawa), mangeao Chapter 1 General Introduction 19 (Litsea calicaris), hinau (Elaeocarpus dentatus), miro (Prumnopitys ferruginea), rewarewa (Knightia excelsa) and pukatea (Laurelia novae-zelandiae) (Burns and Smale, 2002; Innes et al., 2011). The upper margins of the mountain (> 600 m a.s.l.) are dominated by tawari (Ixerba brexioides) and quintinia (Quintinia serrata) (Baber et al., 2008). Large-scale logging on parts of the lower slopes of the mountain during early European settlement times has seen the removal of some mature podocarps, particularly rimu and to a lesser extent tawa. Totara (Podocarpus totara) was also logged for farm fencing, and northern rata and other species were taken for firewood (Ewen et al., 2011; Smuts-Kennedy & Parker, 2013; Doerr et al., 2017). The landscape surrounding Maungatautari is dominated by pasture land used predominantly for dairy production. This farmland environment offers little to no habitat for native animal species, essentially making Maungatautari a habitat island (Ewen, 2011; Doerr et al., 2017). Average rainfall on the mountain is between 1,400 and 1,600 mm per annum, compared to 1,100 to 1,200 mm per annum on the surrounding flat pastures. All of the streams originating on Maungatautari flow into the Waikato River system and these streams have high water quality where they leave the forest (Waipa District Council, 2005; Smuts-Kennedy and Parker, 2013). The Waikato Basin receives about 2,000 h of sunshine a year and 30 to 50 days of fog. The average temperature is around 14°C (de Lisle, 1967; McQueen, 2004). Prior to human occupation, Maungatautari was a high point in a large area of conifer-broadleaf forest rising above the wetland areas of the Waikato Basin (Leathwick et al. 1995; McQueen, 2004). Tall, mature forest covered most of the region, except for extensive areas of bogs and deep swamps (Nicholls 2002; McQueen, 2004). The arrival of Maori to the region in 1500 AD coincided with extensive fires which saw the destruction of large expanses of tall forest in the area. These fire ravaged areas were in time replaced by scrub and fern lands. However, Maungatautari’s current vegetation state suggests that the mountain largely escaped burning (Clayton-Greene 1976; McQueen, 2004). By 1873, the landscape was in the process of being modified into pasture lands for agricultural use, and now Maungatautari stands as an isolated, forested mountain among surrounding pasture lands and represents nearly half of the remaining forest in the region (McQueen, 2004). In the 1970s, the forest of Maungatautari was assigned a national habitat ranking of high to outstanding by the Wildlife Service of the Department of Internal Affairs based on the recorded Chapter 1 General Introduction 20 presence of North Island kokako (Callaeas wilsoni), long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus), possibly short-tailed bat (Mystacina tuberculata) and a wide variety of more common forest birds. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that Maungatautari was even more abundant in indigenous fauna in pre-European times, with species including saddleback (Philesturnus rufusater), North Island robin (Petroica longipes), hihi (Notiomystis cincta), kiwi (Apteryx spp.), kaka (Nestor meridionalis) and kakariki (Cyanoramphus spp) (MacGibbon, 2001; McQueen, 2004). It is believed that kokako remained on Maungatautari until the early 1980s. However, saddleback, North Island robin, hihi and other sensitive bird species disappeared from the forest in the 1800s or the early decades of the 1900s. Kiwi, kaka and kakariki are also believed to have disappeared from the forest by the mid 1900 (MacGibbon, 2001; McQueen, 2004). Introduced mammals at Maungatautari were noted from the mid-1900s as a consequence of European settlement in the area. Anecdotal information indicates the presence of possums (Trichosurus vulpecula), goats (Capra hircus), red deer and fellow deer (Cervus elaphus, Dama dama,), pigs (Sus scrofa), stoats (Mustela erminea), ferrets (Mustela putorius furo), weasels (M. nivalis) and rodents (ship rat Rattus rattus, Norway rat R. norvegicus and mice Mus musculus). Vegetation damage from possums became apparent in the mid to late 1970s but was not considered a major problem until the 1980s and 1990 when possum densities substantially increased and caused the significant decline of many plant species (MacGibbon, 2001; McQueen, 2004). The presence of goats and pigs during the 1940s and 1950s has caused damage in both the upper areas (from goats) and lower areas (from pigs) which is still evident today (MacGibbon, 2001; McQueen, 2004). 1.4.2 Conservation management on Maungatautari As early as 1912, the environmental value of Maungatautari Mountain was observed and it was proposed that it be set aside as a reserve for climatic and water conservation purposes. In 1927, Matamata, Waipa and Waikato County Councils together with the Cambridge Borough Council and the Leamington Town Board purchased 1558 ha of land on the mountain and it was gazetted as a scenic reserve. The Matamata and Waipa County Councils jointly managed the reserve until they were replaced by District Councils in 1989 from which time the Waipa District Council took over management responsibilities. Since 1927, the various managing Chapter 1 General Introduction 21 bodies have continuously added further pieces of land to the reserve so that the protected area now covers approximately 3363 ha of private land, Maori land and Department of Conservation estate and council land. (McQueen, 2004). In the late 1990s poisoning programmes were introduced in order to reduce the growing population of possums and the damage they were imposing on the vegetation. This action significantly reduced possum abundance (MacGibbon, 2001; McQueen, 2004). Furthermore, in 2006 a 47 km Xcluder™ pest-proof fence was installed around the entire base of the mountain, and all pest mammals inside were targeted for eradication, making it a mainland ecological island (Innes et al. 2011). Mainland ‘islands’ are a conservation management concept which refers to defined areas that are isolated by fencing, geographical features or, the intensive management of pests from other areas not managed intensively for conservation purposes. (Saunders & Norton, 2001). The installation of this specialised fence has allowed for the eradication of all introduced mammalian species, except for mice (Mus musculus) across the main mountain (Ewen et al., 2011; Richardson & Ewen, 2016; Doerr et al., 2017). Within this fenced reserve there are two smaller pest-proof enclosures at the northern and southern ends. The northern enclosure comprises 35 ha while the southern enclosure comprises 65 ha, and both would act as ecological islands in their own right if the main perimeter fence failed (McQueen, 2004). Both of these smaller enclosures are actively managed by the Manugatautari Ecological Island Trust (MEIT) with the aim of keeping them free from all mammalian pest species, including mice. The installation of the Xcluder™ fence has paved the way for the reintroduction of a number of endemic species to Maungatautari’s forest. Between 2005 and 2012, seven locally extinct native bird species were reintroduced to Maungatautari (Table 1.2), and an eighth species, the New Zealand falcon, appears to have self-reintroduced as a breeding species (Smuts- Kennedy & Parker, 2013). Most recently in 2016, the North Island kokako (Callaeas wilsoni) was reintroduced to Maungatautari with 40 birds being released. There are now 21 native forest bird species present compared to the 12 species that were noted prior to the commencement of the restoration project. This number is expected to eventually exceed 30 species, with many being listed as endangered or vulnerable on the IUCN Red List (Smuts- Kennedy & Parker, 2013; Richardson & Ewen, 2016). These bird species will be part of a functioning ecosystem that is likely to include at least 50 indigenous vertebrate species (birds, bats, lizards, tuatara, frogs and fish) (Smuts- Kennedy & Parker, 2013). Chapter 1 General Introduction 22 Table 1.2 Bird reintroductions to Maungatautari from 2005-2012 (Smuts-Kennedy & Parker, 2013) † Takahe have since been reclassified as NV (Robertson et al., 2016). Chapter 1 General Introduction 23 1.5 Research objectives This research will address the third key goal outlined in the current Kākāpō Recovery Plan (2006 - 2016) which states the need for research and management action to “secure, restore or maintain sufficient habitat to accommodate the expected increase in the kākāpō population” (Neill, 2008). The recent breeding success of kākāpō makes this need to select a suitable large island an even more imperative goal to achieve. This research specifically aims to determine if Maungatautari Ecological Island is a viable reintroduction site for kākāpō by investigating if the habitat provides “sufficient availability of natural food for kākāpō which could also facilitate breeding” (Cresswell, 1996). Additionally, this research aims to determine the spatial distribution of kākāpō habitat on Maungatautari to potentially guide reintroduction strategies. Objectives of this study are to: 1. Estimate the density of five selected tree species, in particular rimu, on Maungatautari that are believed to be important in kākāpō breeding and as food resources. 2. Investigate the approximate spatial distribution of tree species important for kākāpō survival and breeding across Maungatautari. 3. Investigate the particular vegetation and topographical characteristics that are important in determining the potential distribution of kākāpō on Maungatautari Ecological Island. 4. Produce a predictive habitat suitability map of Maungatautari Ecological Island showing areas suitable for kākāpō survival and breeding. Chapter 1 General Introduction 24 1.6 Thesis structure This thesis is divided into four chapters as follows: Chapter 1. General Introduction This chapter outlines the stimulus for this research and also provides a brief literature review of habitat as a general overview, a description of kākāpō and its habitat, and a description of Maungatautari Ecological Island. This chapter also includes the research objectives and provides an outline of the thesis structure. Chapter 2. Estimating the density of key tree species on Maungatautari This chapter focuses on estimating the density of five selected tree species important for kākāpō breeding on Maungatautari through the analysis of the distance line transect data. Chapter 3. Predictive habitat suitability modelling of Maungatautari as a reintroduction site This chapter focuses on assessing the spatial distribution of key tree species across Maungatautari from the distance line transect data, and aggregating particular vegetation and topographical characteristics of Maungatautari to produce a predictive habitat suitability map and infer the overall suitability of Maungatautari and predict the potential distribution of kākāpō. Chapter 4. General discussion This chapter provides a final discussion on the habitat characteristics of Maungatautari Ecological Island and its suitability as a reintroduction site for kākāpō. This chapter also provides some concluding remarks as well as future research and management recommendations. Each chapter that presents research results (Chapters 2 and 3) has been arranged as a separate paper, with a methods, results and discussion section. Both Chapters 2 and 3 refer to data collected in the distance line transect sampling survey. In order to avoid repetition, a complete description of the methods used for the distance line transect data collection is outlined in Chapter 2. Therefore, refer back to Chapter 2 for the data collection methods in Chapter 3. 25 Chapter 2 Estimating the density of key tree species on Maungatautari Maungatautari Ecological Island shown in the background. Photo credit: Sarah MacDonald Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 26 2.1 Introduction Understanding the environmental factors that influence habitat use and selection by organisms is fundamental to ecology and conservation biology (Manel et al., 2001) and is particularly important when making management decisions for rare and endangered species (Balbontín, 2005). For example, knowledge of environmental factors and habitat features that favour the survival and reproduction of a particular species can be used to guide conservation decisions and species recovery planning (Manel et al., 2001; Balbontín, 2005; Mayor et al., 2009). Habitat quality is believed to be the main reason for the success or failure of reintroduction projects. Therefore, extensive evaluation of the habitat quality of candidate locations should be a fundamental requirement prior to any species reintroduction (Osborne & Seddon, 2012). Basic habitat selection theory predicts that individuals will select habitat types with high quality resources rather than occurring randomly across a given landscape or in habitats with low quality resources (Alcock, 1989). As mentioned in Chapter 1, a number of environmental factors can have an influence on habitat selection, one of which is food availability which has long been considered one of the fundamental factors underlying the distribution and abundance of bird populations and furthermore in driving habitat use and selection by birds (Lack, 1954; Strong & Sherry, 2000; Douglas et al., 2004; Champlin et al., 2009). Selecting a habitat with limited food resources can have significant consequences on the persistence and reproductive success of bird populations. For example, limited food abundance may result in delayed nesting, fewer nesting attempts and reduced nest provisioning and parental care (Champlin et al., 2009). Quantifying abundance of food resources in a given area in a way that accurately reflects food availability from an animal’s perspective can be difficult to achieve. However, fruit and plant food resource abundance has been found to be relatively easy to estimate as they are often more conspicuously displayed compared to other common bird food resources such as insects (Kwit et al., 2004). Plant food resource numbers can be estimated in a given area by a measure of their density in that specified area. Density information is among the most fundamental and sought after data in ecology and conservation biology (Williams et al., 2002; Nomani et al., 2012). More specifically, plant species density data is particularly useful for effective forest assessment (Williams et al., 2002; Kissa & Sheil, 2012) and for the conservation of endangered Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 27 species whose survival and reproductive success may be dependent on those plant species. Total counts of plant individuals in a forest environment are typically expensive to apply with satisfactory results and so researchers and resource managers often employ sampling methodologies to obtain reasonable estimates of density and population size whilst being more cost effective (Kissa & Sheil, 2012; Nomani et al., 2012). Distance sampling is a popular method for estimating density of organisms whilst being cost effective and minimising field effort (Buckland et al., 2001; Williams et al., 2002; Nomani et al., 2012). Food availability is a particularly important factor in driving habitat selection by kākāpō (Strigops habroptilus) in New Zealand. Previous studies have found that the only plants that produce fruit crops that are known to induce kākāpō nesting are podocarp trees, particularly rimu (Dacrydium cupressinum) (Elliott et al., 2006; Harper et al., 2006). However, this is not the case on Hauturu-o-Toi/Little Barrier Island which has very few rimu trees (Stone, 2013). The kākāpō on Hauturu-o-Toi have different breeding triggers which are believed to be driven by abundant beech seeding (Harper et al., 2006). On some islands adult female kākāpō will only breed when there is an exceptionally abundant supply of rimu fruit available, and in poor rimu fruiting years no females will attempt to breed (Elliott et al., 2006). On Whenua Hou/Codfish Island the foraging locations of breeding, female kākāpō were usually areas containing a high abundance of mature rimu, and such areas were described as optimal breeding habitat for kākāpō (Whitehead et al., 2012). One of the key goals for the management of the kākāpō outlined in the current Kākāpō Recovery Plan is to secure, restore or maintain sufficient habitat to accommodate the expected increase in the kākāpō population (Neill, 2008). With a record breeding season in 2016 and expectations for kākāpō breeding to continue successfully, kākāpō populations on Whenua Hou and Anchor Island are considered to be nearing capacity (Stone et al., 2017). Finding new habitat in the near future is therefore an important task. Given Maungatautari is one of the only large (>300 ha) fenced sanctuaries, and it is already cleared of introduced predators, it is beneficial for the future management of kākāpō to determine if the vegetation present at this site is suitable to support survival and breeding of this species. The aim of this study was to investigate the availability of potential food sources for kākāpō on Maungatautari by estimating the density of five selected tree species known to induce or have the potential to induce nesting in relation to other sites where breeding occurs. Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 28 2.2 Methods There are a number of sampling methods available to estimate animal and plant species densities and sizes and each has its own advantages and limitations. This study uses visual detection based distance line-transect sampling to make density estimations of the tree species of interest to this study. 2.2.1 An overview of distance sampling Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating population density (Thomas et al., 2010). Distance sampling involves a set of methods in which the distance from a line or point to detections are recorded and further used to estimate density and/or abundance of the study object (Thomas et al., 2010). Objects sampled are usually animals or animal groups (termed clusters), but can also be plants or inanimate objects (Thomas et al., 2010). Detections are usually of the animal, plant or object itself, but may be of cues (such as bird song bursts) or a sign (such as dung or nests) (Thomas et al., 2010). Distance sampling has numerous advantages for estimating the absolute density of biological populations which include (Buckland et al., 2001): - The ability to estimate the absolute density for a population, even when not every individual is detected per unit area. - The same estimation of density for a population can be calculated from data collected by two different observers, even if one of these observers fails to detect a lot of objects away from the line or point. This is because the difference in observations can be accounted for in the model detection curve. - Only a relatively small percentage of individuals needs to be detected within the sample area (possibly as few as 10-30%). - The size of the sample area can be unknown. The most widely used form of distance sampling is line-transect sampling (Thomas et al., 2010). In line-transect sampling, a survey region is sampled by placing lines at random or, if the terrain allows, systematically placing a series of equally spaced parallel lines on the survey site. An observer walks along each line, recording any objects detected within a distance (w) of the line (Buckland et al., 2010; Thomas et al., 2010). The perpendicular distance from the line to the object is recorded. In some instances, the distance of detected objects from the Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 29 observer (so-called radial or object-to-observer distance), together with the angle from the line of the detection, are recorded, from which the perpendicular distance from the line can be later calculated using basic trigonometry (Buckland et al., 2010). These perpendicular distances are used to estimate a detection function, which is the probability that an object is detected, as a function of distance from the line (Buckland et al., 2010). For the standard method, it is assumed that this probability is one at 0 distance from the line; i.e., that objects on the line are detected with absolute certainty, and that detection probability then decreases with increasing distance from the line (Buckland et al., 2010; Thomas et al., 2010). From the distribution of distances observed, a detection function can be fitted and this function used to estimate the proportion of objects detected within a strip extending a distance w from the line on either side. Assuming an adequate number of lines are placed through the survey region, this density estimate is representative of the whole survey region, allowing abundance within that region to also be estimated (Buckland et al., 2010). Distance line-transect sampling is already popular in estimating animal species densities due to its efficiency and practicability (Buckland et al., 2000). However, it has been less readily used for the assessment of vegetation such as forest trees (Kissa, & Sheil, 2012). Good density estimates, particularly for low abundance tree species, are costly to achieve, especially in rugged forest landscapes. This has prompted investigation into more cost effective means to assess forest composition and make density estimations. For this reason, distance line-transect sampling is being employed more frequently in a number of vegetation studies (Kissa, & Sheil, 2012; Hessenmoller et al., 2013; Mirzaei, & Bonyad, 2016) with the aim of minimising the amount of field measurements and to produce accurate estimations of tree species composition and density. (Kissa, & Sheil, 2012). For distance to produce reliable estimates of density, it is essential that the assumptions of this sampling method are met (Buckland et al., 2010). If these assumptions are not met, estimates of density can have substantial bias (Buckland et al., 2010). The fundamental assumptions on which distance sampling is based are described below. Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 30 Assumptions 1.) Objects on the line or point are detected with certainty. In practice, objects at zero distance from the line i.e., objects right above the observer, on or close to the line or point should be detected with near certainty. If the observer fails to detect objects on or close to the line or point this causes underestimation of density (Buckland et al., 2001; Thomas et al., 2010). In this study trees are unlikely to be missed on the transect line. 2.) Objects are detected at their initial location before any response to the observer. Theoretically, distance sampling is a ‘snapshot’ method as the objective of a point or line transect is to record the number of objects present at a single moment in time, and the position of these objects in relation to a random point or line (Buckland et al., 2001; Thomas et al., 2010). In practice, non-responsive movement in line transect surveys is not problematic provided it is slow relative to the speed of the observer. However, responsive movement before detection is problematic because subjects are assumed to be located independently of the position of the line or point (Thomas et al., 2010). This assumption can be disregarded when sampling plants, inanimate objects or physical signs (e.g. dung or nests), immobile animals (e.g. barnacles) or dead animals (e.g. after disease outbreak) given their stationary nature. Therefore, in this study, where the observed objects are trees, this assumption can be disregarded. 3.) Measurements are exact. In practice, it is essential that the measurement of distances from the line to the centre of each detected object is accurate for the data to be effective in making estimations of density (Buckland et al., 2001; Buckland et al., 2010). Wherever possible, training and technology (e.g. laser rangefinders) should be used to ensure accuracy. It is also assumed that species are not misidentified (Thomas et al., 2010). In this study, training for correct sampling protocol, a laser rangefinder with a clinometer feature, and a tape measure were used to ensure accurate measurements were taken. 4.) There is an adequate sample of randomly distributed lines, or an adequate grid of lines, in the survey region. An adequate sample of lines or points at randomised locations ensures that object locations are independent of the positions of the lines or points. This assumption becomes critical if transects Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 31 are placed along roads or tracks (Buckland et al., 2010; Thomas et al., 2010). In this study a total of 21 transect lines were used which were well distributed over the entire area of Maungatautari. 2.2.2 Line transect sampling survey design in this study To study the vegetation on Maungatautari, line transects, which covered areas that reflected the true forest composition, were first established (Hardy & Sonké, 2004). Large study areas with variable topography, such as Maungatautari, generally contain extensive diversity in forest conditions and therefore, a large number of sampling lines are often required in order to accurately quantify the structural parameters of interest (Sandmann & Lertzman, 2003). However, financial and logistical constraints often dictate the spatial location of sampling sites and the intensity of sampling and thus some trade-offs are often required (Sandmann & Lertzman, 2003). As previously described, the topography of Maungatautari ranges from strongly rolling slopes to very steep slopes near the peaks and in the gullies and the vegetation cover is dense across the entire mountain. These conditions make establishing new randomly distributed line transects difficult as creating new transect tracks would require cutting through vegetation and traversing across difficult terrain. Therefore, pre-existing monitoring lines on Maungatautari were used. These monitoring lines are frequently used for pest-monitoring and bird surveying and their distribution across the mountain has been purposely determined to cover the range of variability in the ecological and structural components of the forest and topography. Therefore, these pre-existing monitoring tracks are believed to be appropriate for the requirements of this study. There is a strong correlation between landforms and vegetation composition patterns (Parker, & Bendix, 1996). Therefore, to ensure that the monitoring lines were located in areas that accurately reflected the variation in vegetation composition on Maungatautari, the landform types were differentiated using a digital terrain model. This digital terrain model was used to differentiate between three different landform types: ridges, faces, and gullies. The total number of monitoring lines were then randomly distributed across the mountain, occupying landform types in the same proportion that they occur in on Maungatautari. Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 32 A total of 21 monitoring lines were selected (Figure 2.1). The lengths of these transect lines vary from 1.32 km to 4.46 km, and each transect line was walked once between August and October 2016. Given the sampling objects in this study are immobile, the transect lines were only walked one time as observations are not expected to vary significantly between occasions. Figure 2.1. Locations of monitoring lines used for the distance line-transect survey at Maungatautari Ecological Island. Along each transect, the specified trees of interest to this study were searched for by two observers at the same time walking along the transect line together. The same observers were used for each transect line and were taught correct sampling protocols prior to sampling to ensure consistency between observers. An a priori for the minimum diameter at breast height (DBH) of sampled trees was set at 30 cm. The perpendicular distance from the transect to each tree was recorded using a tape measure for short distances and a laser range finder when distances were greater than 10 m so could not be measured easily using a tape measure. Tree diameter measurements of each sighted tree was also taken at breast height from the upper side of the slope using a tape measure. The height of each sighted tree was recorded and measured using the clinometer feature on the laser rangefinder. A maximum distance a priori was set at 100 m and so only trees observed within 100 m of the transect line were recorded. Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 33 Five particular tree species were of interest because they were known to be reasonably abundant on Maungatautari and have the potential to induce nesting in kākāpō. These include the following podocarp species: rimu, matai (Prumnopitys taxifolia), miro (Prumnopitys ferruginea), and Hall’s totara (Podocarpus laetus), as well as the southern beech species, silver beech (Lophozonia menziesii). The data to be analysed were categorised into two groups, rimu only and all key tree species combined; which includes all tree species identified as being important to kākāpō combined (matai, miro, Hall’s totara, silver beech). Analysing rimu as a separate category was done because this species plays a critical role in stimulating kākāpō nesting in southern New Zealand and it is the only breeding trigger for which there is strong contemporary evidence (A. Digby, pers. comm.). Therefore, it is useful to identify its density across the mountain exclusively. 2.2.3 Data analysis The data collected from the line transect surveys were analysed using DISTANCE 6.2 Release 1 software to estimate densities of the tree species of interest to this study. DISTANCE uses the equation to estimate density, where n = the total number of trees recorded, W and L = the total width and length of the transect, and Pa = the estimated probability of observing an object within a defined area (Buckland et al., 2000; Thomas et al., 2002: Kissa, & Sheil, 2012). Estimating density in DISTANCE involves selecting a model that suitably represents the influence of distance on detection probability (Kissa, & Sheil, 2012). The standard guidelines were followed for model selection when using DISTANCE software (Buckland et al., 2000). Four detection functions (Half-normal, Hazard-rate, Uniform and Negative-exponential), each with cosine, simple polynomial and hermite polynomial adjustments, were considered (Kissa, & Sheil, 2012). The data were truncated to only include trees observed within 50 m of the transect line to reduce the influence of outlier observations. Truncation also prevents extra adjustment terms from needing to be fitted for data a long way from the transect line. Such data contribute little to the abundance estimate and can reduce estimate precision (Buckland et al. 2001). At distances beyond 50 m correct identification of the tree species became increasingly more difficult, WLP n D a 2ˆ ˆ = Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 34 particularly in distinguishing between similar looking species (such as matai and miro). Therefore, removing observations beyond this distance also ensured greater accuracy in species identification. Observed trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) of less than 30 cm were also removed from the data to be analysed. Growth rates of New Zealand podocarp species have previously been studied (Smale & Kimberley, 1986) and stem sizes of less than DBH 30 cm have been classified as saplings and poles whilst stem sizes of greater than or equal to DBH 30 cm are classified as being adult trees. Vegetation surveys conducted at Maungatautari between 1947 and 1955 to produce a vegetation map in 1963 (Figure 3.1) also classified tree stems as having a minimum DBH of 30 cm (McKelvey, 1963). Therefore it seems appropriate to use the same measure of stem size in this study. Only mature adult podocarp trees have the capability to be fruit bearing (Nanami et al., 2005). Podocarp fruit, which as previously mentioned in chapter 1, directly influences kākāpō life processes by inducing nesting and providing suitable food resources (Wilson, 2004; Wilson et al., 2006). Therefore, sapling and pole sized podocarps, which do not bear fruit, have no immediate impact on kākāpō vital rates (survival and reproduction) and thus can be excluded from data analysis. In addition to this, sapling trees have very variable spatial distribution patterns compared to adult trees. For example, spatial patterns shift from high clumping to looser aggregation or random, independent distribution when moving from saplings to adults for the same tree species (Fangliang et al., 1997; Nanami et al., 2005; Jensen, & Meilby, 2012). This high variability in patterns of spatial distribution among sapling/pole trees would make it difficult to apply an appropriate detection function and estimates of density for sapling and pole sized trees are likely to be unreliable. 2.2.4 Selection of best Distance model DISTANCE software enables one of four basic detection functions, with various standard adjustments, to be selected for (Kissa, & Sheil, 2012). Selection of the most appropriate detection function was based on the minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) (Buckland et al., 1997; Thomas et al., 2010) in conjunction with meeting the criteria for the utility of model classes as outlined by Buckland et al. (2001) (see below) (Miller & Thomas, 2015). Detection function models should be: 1. flexible, so that they can take a wide variety of shapes; Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 35 2. efficient, many plausible shapes can be represented using few parameters; 2. flat at zero distance (g0 (0; θ) = 0), indicating that objects in the immediate vicinity of the observer are detectable at near certainty. The rate of diminution should be slow initially and present as a ‘shoulder’; and, 4. monotonic non-increasing with increasing distance (g0 (y; θ) 0 for 0 < y w), as it is usually unrealistic for detection to increase with increasing distance. Goodness of fit (GoF) was also tested by chi-square for each model to determine the absolute performance of each model compared to the data. GoF is used to ensure that the model selected as being the best does actually have a reasonable fit to the data. The Negative exponential model was excluded from model selection for all DISTANCE analyses. This is because the estimated probability of detection for this model falls off more quickly with distance than is consistent with the sightings made by the observers (Thomas et al., 2010). This negates the criterion that the detection function model should be flat at zero distance and this model also always yields significantly higher tree density estimates than other detection function models. The use of the negative exponential model is also heavily recommended against as it is biologically less realistic than other models and represents cases where detection decreases rapidly with increasing distance from the line (Burnham, et al., 1985; Thomas et al., 2010). 2.2.5 Comparison of density across the whole mountain and within the Southern Enclosure Density estimates of key tree species were made for the entire ecological island and also within the boundaries of the Southern Enclosure exclusively. Investigating density of key tree species within the Southern Enclosure is of particular interest to kākāpō conservation as this location is where the majority of initial reintroduction releases occur at Maungatautari (MEIT, pers. comm.). The Southern Enclosure has previously been proposed by the Maungatautari Ecological Island Trust (MEIT) as a potential initial release site if kākāpō are to be reintroduced (MEIT, pers. comm.). Therefore, density estimates of key tree species within the Southern Enclosure are useful to identify whether this site contains sufficient food sources for kākāpō and whether it could be a suitable release site. However, alterations to the current predator- proof fence would need to be made for this option to be explored further. Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 36 2.3 Results 2.3.1 Locations of key tree species A total of 260 adult trees were identified during the distance line transect survey. Rimu and miro were found to be well distributed across the entire mountain whilst matai and Hall’s totara were found to occur only in one patch in the north (Figure 2.2). Rimu (Dacrydium cupressinum) was the dominant species identified in this survey, accounting for 56.5% of the total number of adult trees observed. Miro (Prumnopitys ferruginea) accounted for 38.1% of adult trees surveyed followed by Hall’s Totara (Podocarpus laetus) (3.1%) and Matai (Prumnopitys taxifolia) (2.3%). No adult beech (Nothofagus spp.) were identified during the distance line transect survey. Figure 2.2. Locations of the adult tree observations made in the distance line transect sampling survey on Maungatautari of tree species identified as being important to kākāpō habitat. Different tree species are differentiated by different shapes and colours as indicated in the map. Map compiled in ArcMap GIS Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 37 2.3.2 Estimates of density of all adult key tree species combined and adult rimu only across Maungatautari DISTANCE software enables the user to select from one of four basic detection functions (Kissa, & Sheil, 2012). The Hazard-rate model (with variable series adjustments) was found to be most suitable for both groups (all key tree species combined, and rimu only) (Table 2.1), as judged by low AIC and consistency with Buckland et al.’s (2001) criteria for selecting an appropriate detection function model (Miller & Thomas, 2015). For the ‘all key tree species combined’ group, the hazard-rate model (series adjustment insignificant as all produce congruent results) was selected as the most appropriate detection function with the lowest AIC value relative to the other models (Table 2.1). Additionally, the detection probability graph (Figure 2.4) shows that the selected detection function curve fits the data well and has a slightly wider shoulder more consistent with the data compared to some other detection function models. The GoF p-value of 0.868 for the selected detection function model indicates that it does have a reasonable fit to the data and is therefore appropriate to use. The hazard-rate model estimated a density of 2.310 key trees/ha across the entire mountain with a 95% confidence interval ranging between 2.247 and 4.876 trees/ha. The total abundance of key trees was estimated as 7,769 trees with a 95% confidence interval between 7,557 and 16,398 trees (Table 2.1). The hazard-rate model (series adjustment insignificant as all produce congruent results) was also selected as the most suitable detection function for estimating the density of adult rimu trees across the entire mountain. This model has the lowest AIC value relative to the other models (Table 2.1). Additionally, the detection probability graph (Figure 2.5) shows that this detection function fits the data well with a shoulder consistent with the rate of diminution of the observed data. The GoF p-value of 0.825 for this selected detection function model indicates a reasonable fit to the data and it is therefore appropriate to use. The hazard-rate model estimated a density of 1.113 adult rimu trees/ha across the entire mountain with a 95% confidence interval ranging between 0.662 and 1.873 rimu trees/ha. The total abundance of adult rimu over the entire mountain was estimated at 3,743 trees with a 95% confidence interval between 2,226 and 6,299 trees (Table 2.1). Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 38 Table 2.1. Comparison of density estimates between different detection function models and series adjustments for adult trees of ‘all key tree species’ and ‘rimu only’ across Maungatautari. Tree population Model/ Adjustment series AIC GoF (p-value) �̂� �̂� 95% CI N N 95% CI All key tree species U/C 1554.30 0.067 2.218 1.572-2.731 7459 5287-9184 U/SP 1704.69 0.000 0.928 0.662-1.301 3121 2226-4375 U/HP 1658.21 0.000 1.135 0.805-1.602 3817 2707-5388 HN/C 1548.53 0.353 2.465 1.740-2.493 8290 5852-8384 HN/SP 1548.53 0.353 2.465 1.740-2.493 8290 5852-8384 HN/HP 1622.22 0.000 1.454 1.038-2.036 4890 3491-6847 HR* 1539.53 0.868 2.310 2.247-4.876 7769 7557-16398 Adult rimu U/C 931.40 0.558 0.915 0.570-1.470 3077 1917-4944 U/SP 939.82 0.049 0.717 0.449-1.143 2411 1510-3844 U/HP 941.71 0.044 0.718 0.002-290.992 2415 7-978606 HN/C 928.73 0.678 0.947 0.590-1.521 3185 1984-5115 HN/SP 932.42 0.483 0.889 0.553-1.427 2990 1860-4799 HN/HP 944.65 0.004 0.719 0.451-1.145 2418 1517-3851 HR* 927.03 0.825 1.113 0.662-1.873 3743 2226-6299 U/C = Uniform/Cosine, U/SP = Uniform/Simple Polynomial, U/HP = Uniform/Hermite polynomial, HN/C = Half-normal/Cosine, HN/SP = Half-normal/Simple Polynomial, HN/HP = Half-normal/Hermite polynomial, HR/C = Hazard-rate/Cosine, HR/SP = Hazard-rate/Simple Polynomial, HR/HP = Hazard-rate/Hermite polynomial; AIC = Akaike Information Criterion; GoF = goodness of fit test probability value; 95% confidence interval (CI); �̂� = Density Estimate; 𝑁 = Total Abundance Estimate. *Replicate results not shown; these detection function models produce identical results regardless of the series adjustment applied. Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 39 Figure 2.4. Detection probability for all adult key tree species across Maungatautari. The histogram represents the number of trees observed at different distances from the transect line. The smooth curve is the detection probability predicted by the best detection function (Hazard- rate model with any series adjustment) Figure produced in DISTANCE. Figure 2.5. Detection probability for adult rimu across Maungatautari. The histogram represents the number of trees observed at different distances from the transect line. The smooth curve is the detection probability predicted by the best detection function (Hazard-rate model with any series adjustment) Figure produced in DISTANCE. Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 40 2.3.3 Estimates of density of all adult key tree species combined and adult rimu only within the Southern Enclosure All of the detection function models produced fairly similar estimates of density within both groups (all key tree species combined, and rimu only) for inside the Southern Enclosure. However, the half-normal model was found to be most suitable for both groups within the Southern Enclosure (Table 2.2) as judged by the criteria described above. For the ‘all key tree species combined’ group, the half-normal model (series adjustment insignificant as all produce congruent results) was selected as the most appropriate detection function as it has the lowest AIC value relative to the other models (Table 2.2). Additionally, the detection probability graph for the selected model shows that the detection function curve fits the data well and the rate of diminution appears to be initially slow, presenting as a shoulder at proximate distances (Figure 2.6). The GoF p-value of 0.557 for the selected detection function model also signifies that it fits the data well. The half-normal model gives an estimated density of 2.454 key trees/ha within the Southern Enclosure with a 95% confidence interval ranging between 1.978 and 2.644 trees/ha. The total abundance of key trees within the Southern Enclosure was estimated at 160 trees with a 95% confidence interval between 129 and 172 trees (Table 2.2). The half-normal model (series adjustment insignificant as all produce congruent results) was also selected as the most suitable detection function for estimating the density of rimu trees within the Southern Enclosure. This model has the lowest AIC value relative to the other models (Table 2.2). Furthermore, the detection probability graph (Figure 2.5) shows that this detection function fits the data well and is consistent with the criteria for the utility of model classes outlined by Buckland et al. (2001) and described above. The GoF p-value of 0.694 for this selected detection function model indicates a reasonable fit to the data and making it suitable to use. The half-normal model produces an estimate for density of 2.206 rimu trees/ha within the Southern Enclosure with a 95% confidence interval ranging between 1.749 and 2.784 rimu trees/ha. The total abundance of rimu within the Southern Enclosure was estimated to be 143 trees with a 95% confidence interval between 114 and 181 trees (Table 2.2). Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 41 Table 2.2. Comparison of density estimates between different detection function models and series adjustments for adults of ‘all key tree species’ and adult rimu within the Southern Enclosure of Maungatautari. Tree population Model/ Adjustment series AIC GoF (p-value) �̂� 95% CI N 95% CI All key tree species U/C 176.89 0.490 2.702 1.595-4.578 176 104-298 U/SP 174.43 0.493 2.420 1.704-2.438 157 111-158 U/HP 182.93 0.025 1.618 0.016-161.687 105 1-10510 HN* 172.73 0.557 2.454 1.978-2.644 160 129-172 HR* 172.84 0.616 2.609 1.784-2.814 170 116-183 Adult rimu U/C 166.58 0.491 2.073 1.260-2.410 135 82-157 U/SP 170.13 0.033 1.375 1.244-1.521 89 81-99 U/HP 171.98 0.052 1.498 0.029-78.047 97 2-5073 HN* 162.21 0.694 2.206 1.749-2.784 143 114-181 HR* 162.78 0.616 2.298 1.545-2.416 149 100-157 U/C = Uniform/Cosine, U/SP = Uniform/Simple Polynomial, U/HP = Uniform/Hermite polynomial, HN/C = Half-normal/Cosine, HN/SP = Half-normal/Simple Polynomial, HN/HP = Half-normal/Hermite polynomial, HR/C = Hazard-rate/Cosine, HR/SP = Hazard-rate/Simple Polynomial, HR/HP = Hazard-rate/Hermite polynomial; AIC = Akaike Information Criterion; GoF = goodness of fit test probability value; 95% confidence interval (CI); �̂� = Density Estimate; N = Total Abundance Estimate *Replicate results not shown; these detection function models produce identical results regardless of the series adjustment applied. Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 42 Figure 2.6. Detection probability for all adult key trees within the Southern Enclosure of Maungatautari. The histogram represents the number of trees observed at different distances from the transect line. The smooth curve is the detection probability predicted by the best detection function (Half-normal model with any series adjustment). Figure produced in DISTANCE. Figure 2.7. Detection probability for adult rimu within the Southern Enclosure of Maungatautari. The histogram represents the number of trees observed at different distances from the transect line. The smooth curve is the detection probability predicted by the best detection function (Half-normal model with any series adjustment). Figure produced in DISTANCE. Chapter 2 Estimating density of key tree species 43 2.4 Discussion The aim of this chapter was