Copyright is owned by the Author of the thesis. Permission is given for a copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research and private study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without the permission of the Author. Analysis, Design and Simulation of Fraud and Vulnerability Management in Affiliate Marketing by Bede Amarasekara A thesis submitted to the Massey University of Auckland In fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy. Massey University of Auckland, New Zealand 2016 ii Abstract Affiliate Marketing (AM) is a popular marketing model in e-commerce, which provides businesses a greater reach for a lesser cost. It is considered a safe way to spend the on-line marketing budget, as commissions are paid to affiliates only on monetary outcomes. However, there are inherent risks and frauds associated with the browser-cookie based tracking process. Cookie stuffing, load-time clicking, typo-squatting, conversion hijacking are some of the fraudulent methods used by rogue affiliates to earn commissions for sales transactions that were never actually promoted by them. Some of the previous researches discuss the prevalence of the above frauds, but technical aspects of these frauds, as to how they are implemented and what are the different ways to implement the same fraud are useful questions when developing solutions, which are addressed in this thesis. Contradicting results in quantifying the prevalence of fraud, carried out in previous research work has prompted us to use empirical data to ascertain how widespread these threats are in affiliate marketing. An affiliate marketing dataset of a practitioner spanning over a period of more than four years were analysed. Some of the above fraud scenarios were discovered and the prevalence of fraud scenarios verified. This thesis also presents new vulnerabilities that were discovered using AMNSTE (Affiliate Marketing Network Simulation and Testing Environment). AMNSTE implements same HTTP cookie tracking technology that is implemented in real-world Affiliate Marketing Networks. This simulation and testing environment enables researchers and affiliate marketing practitioners to examine frauds and risk scenarios and to test the efficacy and utility of solutions that are developed to mitigate those vulnerabilities. The thesis finally proposes technical solutions that can be implemented by advertisers and by affiliate networks, as we continue on our ongoing quest to make systems secure from online frauds. iii Dedication To my parents, in appreciation of their love, commitment and dedication, for never giving up the hope that this token of academic achievement, though long overdue, would one day be true. iv Publications produced 1. Bede Ravindra Amarasekara & Anuradha Mathrani (2015). “Exploring Risk and Fraud Scenarios in Affiliate Marketing Technologies from the Advertiser’s perspective”, Australasian Conference in Information Systems (ACIS 2015). Adelaide, Australia, Dec 2-4, 2015. 2. Bede Amarasekara & Anuradha Mathrani (2016). “Controlling Risks and Fraud in Affiliate Marketing: A simulation and testing environment”, Research paper accepted for IEEE 14th International Conference on Privacy, Security and Trust, Auckland, New Zealand, Dec 12-14, 2016. 3. Bede Amarasekara & Anuradha Mathrani (2017 - in-press). “Revenue Fraud in E-Commerce Platforms: Challenges and Solutions for Affiliate Marketing”, Cyber Security and Policy, Auckland, New Zealand: Massey University Press. v Acknowledgements I would like to thank my research supervisor Dr. Anuradha Mathrani, for her guidance, support and mentoring throughout my research degree and for inspiring me to reach higher goals. I thank Associate Professor Chris Scogings for having faith in me and guiding me towards my success. I also wish to thank my sincere friend Owen Ormsby, for providing me help and support, throughout my study. Finally, I wish to thank all my family, for being there for me and supporting through all my endeavours. vi TTable of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... ii Dedication .................................................................................................................................... iii Publications produced ................................................................................................................. iv Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................... v Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. vii 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Research purpose .......................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Research goals ............................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Thesis structure ............................................................................................................. 3 2 Background and related work ............................................................................................... 5 2.1 Technical Overview of an Affiliate Marketing Platform ................................................ 7 2.1.1 Affiliate Management and Tracking by the Advertiser ......................................... 9 2.1.2 Affiliate Management and Tracking by an Affiliate Management Platform ......... 9 2.2 Case Scenario .............................................................................................................. 10 2.3 Tracking Process .......................................................................................................... 11 2.3.1 Click-tracking ....................................................................................................... 12 2.3.2 Conversion-tracking ............................................................................................ 12 2.4 Findings: Risks and Vulnerabilities .............................................................................. 13 2.5 Tracking failures .......................................................................................................... 17 2.6 Information security .................................................................................................... 18 2.7 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 19 2.8 Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................... 20 3 A simulation and testing environment ............................................................................... 21 3.1 Design Objectives and specifications .......................................................................... 21 3.2 Description of the Prototype ...................................................................................... 24 3.3 System Architecture .................................................................................................... 26 3.3.1 Affiliate Network platform .................................................................................. 27 3.3.2 Advertiser’s e-commerce site ............................................................................. 32 3.3.3 Affiliate’s Website ............................................................................................... 33 3.4 Using the prototype system ........................................................................................ 34 3.4.1 Using AMNSTE to discover frauds and risks ........................................................ 35 3.4.2 Using AMNSTE to find solutions and test efficacy & utility ................................ 37 vii 3.5 Conclusion and Future Research ................................................................................. 37 3.6 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 38 3.7 Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................... 38 4 Analysing the Data .............................................................................................................. 39 4.1 Use of two Affiliate Networks ..................................................................................... 39 4.2 Tracking failures .......................................................................................................... 40 4.3 Duplicate Cookies ........................................................................................................ 40 4.4 Duplicate IP addresses ................................................................................................ 41 4.5 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 45 4.6 Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................... 45 5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 46 5.1 Summary of Thesis ...................................................................................................... 46 5.2 Recommendations for controlling mechanism against frauds and risks .................... 47 5.3 Future Directions ......................................................................................................... 51 6 References ........................................................................................................................... 53 List of Figures Figure 1: How to find an Affiliate program to join? (Source: Collins, S. 2011b) ........................... 6 Figure 2: A logical view of the Tracking process ......................................................................... 11 Figure 3: Layered n-tier architecture .......................................................................................... 25 Figure 4: Sequence diagram of the tracking process .................................................................. 28 Figure 5. Class diagram of Affiliate Network application ............................................................ 29