Copyright is owned by the Author of the thesis. Permission is given for a copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research and private study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without the permission of the Author. SOME FARM MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS OF EXPORT HOGGET PRODUCTION ON LOWER NORTH ISLAND HILL COUNTRY SHEEP FARMS A thes i s p resented i n pa rt i a l fu l f i l ment of the req u i rement s for the deg ree of Master of Agri cultu ra l Sc i ence i n Farm Mana gement at Mas sey Un i vers i ty . A l an Bel l Wa l k er 1984 i TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS i LIST OF TABLES vii LIST OF F IGURES X ACKNOWLED GEMENTS xi ABSTRACT xii CHAPTER ONE : INTR OD UCTION TO STUDY 1.1 Objectives of Thesis 1 1.1.1 Export Hogget Production 1 1.1.2 Economics Section of the Advisory 3 Services Division of the MAF 1.1.3 Interactive A pproach to Farm Management 4 Research 1.2 Outline of Thesis 4 CHAPTE R TWO : STUDY CONTEXT AND APP R O ACH 2.1 Introduction 6 2.2 The Economics Section of the Advisory Services Division of the MAF 6 2.2.1 The Role of Economics Section in Farm Management Research 10 2.3 Industry Requirements 14 2.3.1 On-Farm Requirements 14 2.3.2 Off-Farm Requirements 15 2.4 Study Approach 16 2.4 .1 Problem/Opportunity Definition 18 2.4.2 Situation Analysis 18 2.4.3 S ystems Modelling 20 TABLE OF CONTENTS ( Cont ' d ) Page 2 . 4 . 4 Output Ana l ys i s 20 2 . 4 . 5 Fa rm Mon i to ri n g Scheme 2 1 2 . 4 . 6 I nte ract i ve D i s cu s s i on 24 2 . 5 C h apter Conclu s i on 24 CHAPTER THRE E : A REV I EW OF SHEEP MEAT PRODUCT I O N SYSTEMS AND THE POTENT I AL OF EXPORT HOGGET FOR LEAN MEAT PRODUCT ION 3 . 1 I n t rodu ct i on 3 . 2 Sheep Farmi n g Sy st ems i n New Zeala nd 3 . 3 I nte rdepende nce of Farm Clas ses 3 . 4 Hogget Compos i t i on of Flock s 3 . 5 Potent i al S u p ply of Export Hogget 3 . 6 Hogget Slau ght e r Patterns 3 . 7 Mar ket Pot ent i al For E xport Hogget 3 . 8 S heep Meat Ca rcase Su i t ab i li ty fo r Con s u me r 26 26 29 29 33 34 36 Dema nds 38 3 . 9 Ca rcase Compos i t i on 39 3 . 1 0 Mana gement Strategi es to P roduce Leane r , La rger Ca rcases 40 3 . 1 0 . 1 Sla u gh t e r at L i ghte r Wei ghts 3 . 1 0 . 2 Stoc k i ng R ate 3 . 1 0 . 3 Ram Lambs 40 41 41 3 . 1 0 . 4 B reeds 41 3 . 1 0 . 5 Ea rly Wean i ng 42 3 . 1 0 . 6 I n c reased Twi n n i n g 42 3 . 10 . 7 Rot at i on a l Graz i n g 42 3 . 1 0 . 8 Di f fe rent i al Slau ghter Patt e rn s 43 3 . 1 0 . 9 Sel e ct i on 3 . 1 0 . 10 Comb i n at i on St rateg i es 3 . 1 0 . 1 1 Hog get Ca rca s e Compos i t i on 3 . 1 1 C h apter Conclu s i on 43 43 44 44 i i ( Cont'd ) i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS ( Cont ' d ) Page ( Cant ' d ) CHAPTER FOU R SYSTEMS ANALYS I S - E XPORT HOGGET PRODUCT I O N : SYSTEM COMPONENTS AND I NTER- R ELAT I ONSH I P S 4 . 1 I nt rodu ct i on 46 4 . 2 Pastu re S u b system Components 48 4 . 3 An i ma l S u bsystem Components 51 4 . 3 . 1 Ewe F eed Req u i rement s 51 4 . 3 . 2 Pos t -Wean i n g Lamb and Hogget Feed Req u i rement s 56 4 . 3 . 2 . 1 De ri vat i on of Lamb/Hogget Feed Requ i rement s 58 4 . 3 . 3 4 . 3 . 4 4 . 3 . 2 . 2 Dres s i n g Out Pe rcenta ges for Lamb , Export Hog gets and Ewes Catt l e Feed Req u i rements Chapter Con c l u s i on CHAPTER F I VE : SYSTEMS SYNTHES I S - FEED BUDGET I NG 59 59 60 5 . 1 I nt rodu ct i on 61 5 . 2 Feed Ba l a n ce App roach ; Ewe Redu ct i on St rat egi es 62 5 . 2 . 1 Stat u s quo Feed Dema nd 63 5 . 2 . 2 Feed Re l ea s e 64 5 . 2 . 3 I nt rodu ct i on of Export Hogget s 65 5 . 3 C att l e Redu ct i on Strateg i es 67 5 . 4 Cu l l Two- Toot h Sa l e Strateg i es 68 5 . 5 M i sce l l aneous P rodu ct i on (Model l i n g ) A s sumpt i on s 69 5 . 5 . 1 S a l e of Cu l l Two-Toot h s as Export Hog gets 69 5 . 5 . 2 5 . 5 . 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ( Cont • d ) Lambi n g Percent a ge Ama l gamat i on of Lamb F eed i n g Mobs 69 70 5 . 6 Speci f i c F a rm Mon i tori n g Mode l s 70 5 . 6 . 1 Man awatu Sma l l H i l l 7 1 5 . 6 . 2 Hawkes Bay/Wai ra rapa E as i e r H i l l 7 7 5 . 6 . 3 5 . 6 . 4 5 . 6 . 5 Manawatu/Tai hape H i l l Hawkes Bay/Wai ra rapa H a rde r H i l l Ta i h ap e/Wanganu i No rt h I s l and H a rd H i l l 5 . 7 Feed Ba l a nce F i ndi ngs 5 . 8 S i mu l at i on Model l i n g of Wi nt e r P a st u re Mana gement 5 . 9 Chapter Con c l u s i on CHAPTER S I X : OUTPUT ANAL Y S I S - F I NANC IAL AND PHYS I CAL 82 87 92 97 105 109 6 . 1 I nt rodu ct i on 1 1 1 6 . 2 Gross Ma rg i n s Ana l y s i s 1 1 1 6 . 3 Sens i t i v i ty Ana l ys i s 1 15 6 . 4 Sy stem Output Ana l y s i s 1 23 6 . 5 Cash F l ow Ana l y s i s 1 2 7 6 . 6 Chan ge-over to E xport Hog get P rodu ct i on 1 30 6 . 7 Chapter Con c l u s i on 1 3 1 CHAPTER S E V E N : SYSTEM VAL I DAT I ON - I NTERACT I VE D I SCUSS ION 7 . 1 I n t rodu ct i on 1 33 7 . 2 Object i ves of I nte ract i ve D i s cu s s i on 1 3 3 7 . 3 Theo ret i ca l B a s i s for I nterat i ve D i s cu s s i on 1 34 i v 7 . 4 7 . 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS ( Cont 1 d ) S u rvey Method I nte ractive Dis c u s sion Findings 7 . 5 . 1 7 . 5 . 2 7 . 5 . 3 7 . 5 . 4 Export Hogget P rodu ction Mode l l i n g Assumptions Mode l C hanges E xt e rn a l it i es 7 . 6 C h apt e r Con c l u sion CHAPTER E I GHT : USE OF RESEARCH F I ND I NGS I N DEC I S I ON S U P PORT 8 . 1 I nt rodu ction 8 . 2 8 . 3 E xp o rt E xp o rt 8 . 3 . 1 8 . 3 . 2 8 . 3 . 3 8 . 3 . 4 8 . 3 . 5 Hog get P rodu ct i on : Hog get P roduction Prof i tab i l i ty Fea s i bi l ity Des i rabi l i ty Sy stem Output Ri s k 8 . 4 E xt e rna l i ties Pot ent i a l Syst ems 8 . 4 . 1 8 . 4 . 2 On - Fa rm E xterna l ities Off-Farm E xterna l i t i es 8 . 5 Addition a l R esea rch I nf o rmation 8 . 6 Chapt e r Con c l u sion CHAPTER N I NE EVALUAT I ON 9 . 1 I nt rodu ction 9 . 2 S uit a bi l ity of Research App roach 9 . 2 . 1 Des k Resea rch Phase S u pp ly 9 . 2 . 2 I nt e ractive Discussion P h a s e V Page ( Cont 1 d ) 137 141 141 148 1 49 1 49 151 152 152 153 153 156 158 159 160 160 160 162 163 165 166 166 1 66 168 v i TABL E OF CONTENTS ( Cont ' d ) Page ( C ont ' d ) 9 . 3 Resea rch Met hods 168 168 1 70 1 7 0 1 7 2 1 7 2 1 7 3 9 . 3 . 1 Des k Res ea rch P h a s e 9 . 3 . 2 I nte ractive Dis c u s sion P hase 9 . 4 Study Obj e ctives 9 . 4 . 1 I ndu s t ry Pe rspective 9 . 4 . 2 I nstitution a l Pers pective 9 . 5 Chapt e r Con c l u sion BIB I L I OGRAPHY APPEND I X ONE AP PEND I X TWO APPEND I X THR E E APP END I X FOUR APPEND I X F I VE APP END I X S I X APPEND I X SEVEN - APPEND I X E I GHT AP PEND I X N I NE 1 7 4 I N I T IAL FARMER SURVE Y 181 E ST I MAT I NG FU NCT ION FOR LAMB AND HOGGET 193 FEED REQU I REME NTS STOCK RECONC I L IAT I ONS F E ED BUDGETS GROSS MARG I NS/BREAK-EVEN SCHEDULES SY STEM OUTPUT CAS H FLOW PROF I LES FOR HB/WAI RARAPA EAS I ER H I LL QUE STI ONNA I RE/CHEC KL I ST USED I N I NTERACT I VE D I SCUSS I O NS ( a ) L I NEAR PROGRAMM I NG SPEC I F I CAT I ON 194 200 226 234 236 243 OF EXPORT HOGGET PROD U CT I ON MODELS 250 EXPORT HOGGET PRODUCT I ON MODELS ( b ) L I NEAR PROGRAMM I NG MATR I X - MANAWATU SMALL H I LL MODEL 253 Tab l e 3 . 1 3 . 2 3 . 3 3 . 4 3 . 5 3 . 6 4 . 1 4 . 2 4 . 3 4 . 4 4 . 5 LIST OF TABLES E st i mat es of Numbe r of S heep F a rms and N umbe r o f Sheep by Farm Type Farm P roduct i on by Farm C l as s ( 1 980 / 81 ) Al l C l a s s es Farm - F l ock St ructu re - Wi nt e r Numbe rs F l o ck Compos i t i on E xp res sed i n Percentage Te rms by Farm C l a s s ( 1980 ) Hogget S l a u ghteri n g Sheep C a rcases G raded f o r E xp o rt Seasona l Pastu re Qu a l i ty Coeff i c i ents Ta rget Ewe L i vewe i ghts and L i v ewe i ght Changes F l ock Lamb i n g Stat u s at Speci f i ed L ambi n g Percent a ges Lambi n g S p read Lamb Feed Requi rements F rom Th ree Data Sou rces 5 . 1 . 1 Man awatu Sma l l H i l l 5 . 1 . 2 Manawatu Sma l l H i l l Requirements P rodu ct i on Det ail s Who l e Flock Feed 5 . 1 . 3 Ma nawatu Sma l l H i l l Rep l acement and Exp ort Hog get G rowth P rof i l e and Feed Requ i rements 2 7 28 31 32 34 35 50 5 1 54 55 57 73 74 75 5 . 1 . 4 Ma nawatu Sma l l H i l l Lamb G rowth P rofi l es and 76 Feed R equ i rement s 5 . 2 . 1 Hawkes Bay /Wa i ra rapa E as i e r H i l l Detai l s 5 . 2 . 2 Hawkes B ay /Wa i rarapa E as i er H i l l Feed R eq u i reme nt s P rodu ct i on 78 Whol e F l ock 7 9 5 . 2 . 3 Hawkes B ay /Wa i rarapa E as i er H i l l Rep l acement 80 and E x p o rt Hogget G rowt h P rofi l es and Feed Requ i rements 5 . 2 . 4 Hawkes Bay /Wa i ra rapa E as i er H i l l Lamb G rowth P rofi l es and Feed Requi rement s 81 v i i vi i i LIST OF TABLES ( Cont ' d ) Page ( Cont ' d ) 5 . 3 . 1 Ma nawat u /Ta i hape H i l l P rodu ct i on Deta i l s 83 5 . 3 . 2 Manawat u /Ta i hape H i l l Who l e F l oc k Feed 84 Requ i re ments 5 . 3 . 3 Ma nawat u /Ta i hape H i l l Rep l a ceme nt and Export 85 Hogget G rowt h P rofi l es and F eed R equ i rement s 5 . 3 . 4 Manawat u /Tai hape H i l l Lamb G rowth P rofi l es and 86 Feed R equi rements 5.4 . 1 Haw k es Bay /Wa i ra rapa Harde r H i l l P rodu ct i on 88 Det a i l s 5 . 4 . 2 Hawk es Bay /Wa i ra rapa Ha rde r H i l l Whol e F l ock 89 Feed R equ i rements 5 . 4 . 3 Haw k es Bay /Wa i ra rapa H a rde r H i l l Rep l a cement 90 a nd E x p o rt Hog get G rowt h P rof i l es and Feed Requ i rements 5 . 4 . 4 Hawkes Bay /Wa i ra rap a Harde r H i l l Lamb Growth P rof i l es and F eed Requ i rements 5 . 5 . 1 Ta i h ape/Wanganu i Nort h I s l and H a rd H i l l P rodu ct i on Det ai l s 5 . 5 . 2 Tai h ap e/Wanganu i North I s l a nd H a rd H i l l Who l e F l ock F eed Requi rements 5 . 5 . 3 Tai hape/Wanganu i North I s l a nd H a rd H i l l Rep l ac ement and Export Hogget G rowth P rofi l es a nd F eed Requ i rement s 9 1 93 94 95 5 . 5 . 4 Tai hap e/Wan ganu i North I s l and H a rd H i l l 96 Lamb G rowt h P rofi l e and F eed Requi rement s 5 . 6 . 1 Manawatu Sma l l H i l l Feed Dema nd P rofi l es 99 5 . 6 . 2 H awkes B ay/W a i ra rapa E as i e r H i l l Feed Demand 100 P rof i l es 5 . 6 . 3 Ma nawatu /Tai hape H i l l Feed Demand P rof i l es 1 0 1 5 . 6 . 4 H awkes B ay/W a i ra rapa H a rd e r H i l l Feed Demand 102 P rof i l es 5 . 6 . 5 Ta i h ap e /Wanganu i Nort h I s l an d H a rd H i l l 103 F eed Dema nd P rofi l es i x L I ST OF TABLES ( Cont • d ) Page (Cont•d ) 5 . 7 . 1 1 R i ve rs i de 1 S i mu l at i on : Average Pastu re Cover 1 07 at 3 1 Ju l y 1 983 5 . 7 . 2 Pastu re Cove r D i s t ri but i on at 3 1 Ju l y 1 983 108 6 . 1 6 . 2 6 . 3 U nder Va r i ou s Management St rateg i es De ri ved E xp o rt Hogget B reak -E ve n Schedu l e For Export Hogget P rodu ct i on St rateg i es B reak -Even E xp o rt Hogget Schedu l e Va ri at i ons Res u l t i n g f rom Vary i ng Pa ramet e rs Exp o rt H ogget B reak-Even Schedu l es for Ewe Redu ct i on St rat egi es at Two Leve l s of P e rfo rma nce 1 14 1 18 1 20 6 . 4 Export Hogget B reak-E ven Schedu l e for Al t e rnat i ve 1 2 2 6 . 5 6 . 6 6 . 7 6 . 8 6 . 9 Hog get G rowt h P rofi l es Export H ogget Sy st ems : Out put Ana l y s i s ( a ) Ewe Reduct i on Average Performa nce Export Hogget Sy st ems : Output Analy s i s ( b ) Ewe Reduct i on Medi u m Performa nce Export Hogget Systems : Output Ana l y s i s ( c ) Catt l e Reduct i on Ave rage P e rformance Hawkes Bay/Wa i ra rapa : Mont h l y Cas h Fl ow P rofi l e for Sheep Component On l y Hawkes Bay/Wai ra rapa E as i e r H i l l Mont h l y Who l e F a rm ( Revenue and E xpend i tu re ) Cash F l ow I nc l ud i n g E st i mated Ove rdraft Payment s 124 1 25 1 2 6 1 28 1 2 9 F i gu re 2 . 1 4 . 1 6 . 1 7 . 1 7 . 2 9 . 1 9 . 2 9 . 3 L I ST OF F IGURES D i ag rammat i c Rep rese nt at i on of Resea rch App roach U sed i n Study Sch ema of Export Hog get P roduct i on System - Show i n g C omponent s ( s u bsy s tems ) and Int e r- re l at i on s h i p s D i ag rammat i c Rep resentat i on of B rea k - E ven Export Hog get S chedules Pe rs onal Int e ract i on Model of Extens i on Summa ry of Inte ract i ve D i s c u s s i on St ruct u re and Con d i t i ons Schemat i c Rep res entat i on of Sci ent i f i c Method i n Operat i ons Research Sch emat i c Rep res ent at i on of New P rodu ct Deve l opme nt P rocess Bas i c Steps of Systems Research X F o l l owi ng P age 1 7 47 1 1 4 135 140 166 167 167 xi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS T h e re i s a l a rge numbe r of peop l e to whom the aut h o r wi l l remai n i ndebt ed for t h e i r i nput i nto t h i s thes i s . Many can on l y be ack now l edged c o l l ect i ve l y , ot h e rs mu st rece i ve i nd i v i du a l recogn i t i on . F oremost i s P rofes sor Bob Town s l ey , my superv i s o r and mentor , wh o ga ve so gen e rou s l y and pat i ent l y of h i s t i me i n p rovi d i n g gu i dan ce and const ru ct i ve c ri t i c i sm du ri n g a l l st a ges of thi s study . The aut hor wou l d a l s o l i k e to thank a l l t he ot her Mas s ey staff membe rs whom he pes t e red at v a ri ous stages of h i s studi es . Thei r as s i stance made my t i me at Mas s ey a most be nef i c i a l and enj oyab l e experi ence . The Mi n i s t ry of Agri cu l t u re and F i s he ri es have bee n gen e rous emp l oy e rs , and to the ma ny co l l eagues who ass i sted wi th i nformat i on and di s cu s s i o n I g i ve my than k s . I mu st a l s o ack nowl edge the fa rme rs v i s i t ed du ri n g the cou rs e of two su rvey s - wi thout thei r co-ope rat i on t h i s study cou l d not have been u nde rt a k en . The author i s most app reci at i ve of the typ i sts i n vo l ved i n th i s p resentat i on . To Barba ra Wa l k e r and Adri enne Kende l l who ma na ged to deci p her the or i gi na l draft s , and to Ba rba ra Ma r sha l l who prepa red the f i n a l ma nusc r i pt . And fi n a l l y I mu st ack now l edge my wi fe Ba rba ra who showed great pat i ence and understand i n g i n p rovi di n g unend i n g s u pport . Def i c i enci es i n t h i s thes i s are not att ri butab l e to any of those men ­ t i oned . xi i ABSTRACT The pu rpose of th i s p roj e ct was to i nvest i gate s ome of the farm mana geme nt i mp l i cat i ons of exp o rt hogget p roduct i on on l owe r Nort h I s l a n d H i l l cou nt ry fa rms f rom the perspect i ve o f a F a rm Advi s ory Off i c e r ( Econom i cs ) ope r at i n g w i t h i n the Advi s o ry Serv i ces D i v i s i on ( ASD ) of the New Zea l a nd M i n i s t ry of Agri cu l tu re and F i s heri es ( MAF ) . To estab l i s h t h e context i n wh i ch the study i s set , a bri ef revi ew of t h e res pons i b i l i t i es of the Economi cs Sect i on of ASD i s p resented as a p recu rs o r to deve l op i n g t h e i nst i tut i ona l and i nd u s t ry requ i rement s of f a rm ma na gemen t resea rch pe rfo rmed by staff of the Economi cs Sect i on o f ASD . B r i ef re vi ews of exi st i n g s heep meat p rodu ct i on syst ems , mana gement syst ems for p rodu c i ng l ea n meat , and the ma rket requ i rement s for export hog get , i nd i cat e l i mi ted pot ent i a l fo r fu rt h e r expa ns i on of I hogget product i on fo r expo rt unde r cond i t i ons of re l at i ve p rof i tabi l i ty . S i mp l e feed budget i ng/gross ma rg i n s ana l y s i s p rocedu res are used to sy nt hes i s e and eva l uate export hogget p roduct i on st rateg i es fo r a range of l ower Nort h I s l and h i l l cou nt ry f a rm types . Schedu l e p r i ces , for export hogget meat , suff i ci ent to break -even wi t h p re exp o rt hogget p rodu ct i on st rateg i es a re estab l i s hed , and the sens i t i v i ty of these break -even schedu l e pr i ces to a range of management , output , and p rodu ct pr i ce va ri ab l es i s i n vest i gated . A h i gh l i ght of the res e a rch app roach i s an i nt e ract i ve component of the res ea rch p roces s , dev�l oped f rom Kel l y ' s ( 1965 ) Persona l Con s t r u ct Theory and Woog ' s ( 1982 ) P e rs ona l I nt e ract i on Mode l of Ext ens i on , i n wh i ch p rev i o u s l y deve l oped mode l s a re u sed as a bas i s fo r i nte ract i ve di s cu s s i ons w i th farme rs . xi i i ABSTRACT ( cont d ) Export hogget p rodu ct i on i s shown to be feas i b l e , a l thou gh not neces s a ri l y fu l l y comp at i b l e wi t h , or des i rab l e u nde r , a l l ex i st i ng h i l l cou nt ry s heep p rodu ct i on syst ems i n ves t i gated. Export hogget p rodu ct i on ap pears to have great est pot ent i a l appea l to mode ratel y i ntens i ve farmi n g sy st ems p ract i s ed under cond i t i on s whe re summe r pastu re produ ct i on i s poo r , rel at i ve to wi nt e r gras s growth . The ove r-ri di n g conc l u s i on i s that , wh i l st hogget p rodu ct i on may have me ri t as a mea n s of p rodu ci n g l a rge r , l eane r , ca rcases fo r export , and wh i l st cu r rent produ ct i on sy stems ap pea r cap a b l e of produ c i n g l i mi t ed amounts of expo rt hogget , cu rrent schedu l e payments pre c l u de any 1 rat i ona l deci s i on to p roduce hogget fo r export . C HAPTER ONE I NTRODUCT I O N TO STUDY 1 . 1 OBJ ECT I VE S OF THES I S Th i s stu dy , wh i ch i s set i n the context o f a F a rm Adv i sory Offi cer ( Ec onomi cs ) u nd e rt ak i n g res ea rch to de ve l op and eva l u ate a new fa rm ma nageme nt sy s tem , has bi p a rt i t e obj e ct i ves . The fi rst obj e ct i ve i s concerned wi th i n vest i gat i n g the fa rm ma na gement i mp l i c at i on s of export hogget produ ct i on on l owe r North I s l and h i l l cou nt ry sheep fa rms . The second obj ect i ve i s conce rned wi th deve l op i n g an i nt e ract i ve app roach to fa rm ma na geme nt resea rch , s u i tab l e to meet the i ns t i t ut i on a l req u i rement s of resea rch ca rri ed ou t by staff of the Economi cs Sect i on , .1\d vi s ory Servi ces Di v i s i on , of the Mi n i st ry of Agri cu l t u re and F i s h e r i es . I n th i s cont ext, the speci fi c fa rm ma nagement system unde r i n ves t i gat i on , export hogget prod u ct i on , i s u sed as an examp l e to devel op the second obj ect i ve . 1 . 1 . 1 Expo rt Hogget P rodu ct i on Export hogget p rodu ct i on re fers to the p rodu ct i on of hog get s fo� s l au ghter and sa l e on an exp ort hogget s chedu l e . Fur· ,neat p;-oducticn purposes; .:J. hngget i s def i ned as a s heep wi th no more than two pe rma nent i nc i sor teeth i n wea r ( Da v i son , 1982 ) . As l ambs ca n be s o l d on an export l amb schedu l e from the pe ri od 1 Oct obe r t o 3 0 Septembe r , expo rt hogget refers t o yea rl i n g s heep k i l l ed after 1 Oct o be r . The i mport a nt farm ma na gement i mp l i cat i on i s that expo rt h ogget p rodu ct i on i nvo l ves ove r-wi nt e ri n g l ambs to the hogget stage . 2 T radi ti on a l l y , most hoggets on non-a ra b l e fa rms a re reta i ned as b reed i n g ewe rep l acement s . Most h i l l count ry s heep p rope rt i es reta i n mo re ewe hoggets than a re req u i red for norma l f l ock rep l acement s . Ewe hoggets su rp l u s to breedi n g requ i rements may be so l d for l oca l meat cons umpt i on , but are mo re u s ua l l y ca r r i ed th rou gh and so l d as two-toot h s to be used for breed i n g pu rposes i n l ow l and fl ock s . Les s e r numbe rs o f wet h e r l ambs are a l s o ca r ri ed o n North I s l and h i l l cou nt ry s heep fa rms , u s ua l l y fo r on -farm con s u mpti o n . H i stor i c a l l y , v e ry l i tt l e hogget has been k i l l ed for expo rt . Up to the 1 982/ 83 k i l l i ng season the expo rt hogget k i l l has averaged around 3 . 5% of the total hog get k i l l , o r around 0 . 06% of the tota l export s heep k i l l ( l amb , mutton , hogget ) . ( New Zea l and Meat P rodu cers Boa rd , 1982 ; New Zea l a nd Meat P rodu ce rs Boa rd Annua l Report s . ) The ma i n i mped i ment to the de ve l opment of ove rs eas ma rkets fo r exp o rt hogget has been an i n cons i stent supp l y of su i tab l e hogget s from New Zea l and farms , due to u nce rta i n and va ri ab l e retu rns for export hogget to the New Zea l a nd p roducer ( New Zea l a nd Meat P rodu cers Boa rd , 1982 ) . Afte r an i n ves t i gati on i nto potenti a l ma rket opportu n i ti es fo r export hogget ( B ryant , 1 982 ) and expo rt hogget p roduct i on ( Da v i son , 1982 ) , the Meat P rodu ce rs Boa rd requ ested meat exporte rs to offe r sep a rate s chedu l e payme nts fo r hogget for the meat expo rt i ng season be g i n n i n g 1 Oct obe r 1 982 . At the ti me th i s stu dy was i n i ti ated , i t was known that the New Zea l a nd Meat P rodu cers Boa rd was i nt e rested i n expandi n g i ts op�rati on i n export hogget . Howeve r , it was not expected that schedu l e payments wou l d beg i n u nti l 1 Octobe r 1 983 ( L . I . B ryant pe rs.comm . ) , con- s eq u ent1y a study of the farm management impl i cati ons of expo rt hogget p rodu ct i on was cons i de red important ( New Zea l and Meat P rodu cers Boa rd , 1982 ) . Acco rd i n g l y , th i s stu dy was u nde rtaken u nde r the u nde rstand i n g that off-fa rm ma rketi n g oppo rt u n i t i es f o r export hogget di d exi st . 1 . 1 . 2 Econom i cs Sect i on of the Adv i sory Se rvi ces D i v i s i on of the M i n i s t ry of Agri cu l tu re and F i she r i es 3 The E conomi c s Sect i on comp ri s e s a smal l grou p of speci a l i st advi sers wi t h i n t h e Advi s o ry Servi ces D i v i s i on of the Mi n i s t ry of Ag r i cu l tu re and F i s he ri es . The speci a l i st off i cers a re des i gnated Advi s o ry Off i c e r s ( Economi cs ) . The des i gn at i on i s a mi s n ome r as the ma i n a rea of res p on s i b i l i ty l i es i n the fi e l d of fa rm manageme nt . The Economi cs Sect i on , wh i ch has staff based on l y i n maj o r offi ces , has fou r ma i n a reas of res pons i b i l i ty ( R i t ch i e , 1 983 ) . B r i e f l y these a re ( fu l l d i s c u s s i on i s p resented i n Chapter Two ) : ( a ) E va l u at i on and de vel opment of i mproved ( new ) f a rm and h o rt i cu l tu ra l product i on sy st ems : I n th i s rol e , staff of the E conomi cs Sect i on have the res pons i b i l i ty fo r i n i t i at i n g and co-ordi nat i n g mo re deta i l ed f a rm ma na gement res ea rch than that unde rt a k e n by gen e ra l adv i s o ry of f i cers . ( b ) Staff Trai n i ng and de ve l opme nt: Th i s a rea of res p ons i b i l i ty i n vol ves pa s s i n g on to advi sory off i cers new i nfo rmat i on on bot h the techno l ogy and methods of a na l ys i s , resu l t i n g from fa rm ma na gement resea rch . ( c ) R egi ona l and i ndust ry deve l opment : Th i s rol e i n vo l ves adv i ce at bot h p rodu cer and i nd u s t ry l e vel s a s to how to ach i eve ta rgets and rea l i se ma rket pot e nt i a l i n i de nt i f i ed growt h area s . ( d ) P o l i cy gu i da nce : The E conomi cs Sect i on fu l f i l s th i s ro l e th rou gh mo n i tor i n g o n-fa rm a n d i ndustry i mp l i cat i ons o f po l i cy deci s i on s and report i ng thes e to Cent ra l Gove rnme nt . 1 . 1 . 3 I nt e ract i ve Approach to F a rm Management Resea rch M i l l e r ( 19 82 ) u se d the term ' i nte ract i on ' , i n a fa rm mana gement rese a rch cont ext , to refer to a research app roach i nvo l v i ng an i nt e ra ct i on of mode l l i ng and phy s i ca l fi e l d res ea rch i n bot h deve l opment and t est i ng of hypot h eses . 4 Th i s thes i s a l so i nvo l ves an i nt e ract i on between mode l l i ng and ' f i e l d res e a r ch ' . Howeve r , i n t h i s study , the fi e l d res ea rch unde rtaken i s not of a phys i ca l natu re . R at h e r , the fi e l d wo rk i nvo l ves test i ng ' fa rme r react i on ' to expo rt hogget p rodu ct i on systems u s i ng an app roa c h ba sed on Kel l y ' s ( 1 956 ) Persona l Const ru ct Theory and Woog ' s ( 1 982 ) ' Pe rsona l I nt e ract i on Mode l of Extens i on ' . It i s from these mod e l s th at the term ' i nte ract i ve di s c u s s i on ' was de vel oped by the aut ho r . The pr i nc i p l e of i ntegrat i n g comp l ement a ry s i mu l at i on mode l l i ng and f i e l d res ea rch u sed i n t h i s study i s s i mi l a r to that su g gested by Hutton ( 1 9 7 3 ) , McRae ( 1 9 7 5 ) a nd M i l l e r ( 1 982 ) . The di ffe rence l i es i n t h e met hod by wh i ch systems model l i n g and fi e l d resea rch i s i nt e g r at ed . I n th i s study , the i nteract i ve ap p roach i s used to i nvo l ve fa rme rs ( and fa rm advi so ry offi c e rs ) i n i nte ract i ve di s cu s sions as part of the farm mana gement resea rch p roces s . Th i s a pp roach i s l i k e l y to be we l l s u i ted to meet i n g the speci a l requ i re­ me nt s of fa rm ma na gement research ca r ri ed out by staff of the Economi c s Sect i on i n s i tuat i ons whe re it i s di ff i cu l t or i mpos s i b l e to i nt e g r at e phys i ca l fi el d res earch i nto the res ea rch p roces s . 1 .2 OUTL I NE OF THES I S C h apt e r Two expands on t h e ro l e and fu n ct i on o f t h e Econom i cs Sect i on o f Ad v i s o ry Se rv i ces D i v i s i on i n fa rm mana gement res ea rch . The c hap t e r al so out l i nes the res ea rc� app roach fo l l owed i n th i s stu dy . 5 Chapter T h ree expands on t h e ma rket pot ent i a l for exp o rt hogget and b r i ef ly d i s cu s s es the pot e nt i a l su p p l y of hogget s for export f rom the New Zeal and f l ock . A b r i ef i nt rodu ct i on to the debate on exp o rt l amb c a rcase compos i t i on i s p res ented , a l on g w i t h k n own man a gement s t rateg i es for p rodu ci n g l ea ne r , l a rge r l amb . Th e chapter con c l u des by i ndi c at i n g a potent i a l opportun i ty for exp o rt hogget as a means of p rodu c i n g l a rge r , l eane r , exp o rt meat ca rcases . C h apter Fou r i nt rodu ces exp o rt hogget p rodu ct i on i n a systems context , a nd d i s cu sses the system comp onents and i nt e r - re l at i ons of concern i n t h e stu dy . C hap ter F i ve des cr i bes the study meth od by wh i ch mode l s of export hogget p rodu ct i on sy stems a re sy nthes i zed for a ra n ge of fa rm types , and br i ef ly di s cu s s es the i mp l i cat i ons of exp o rt hog get p rodu ct i on systems for pastu re ma n a gement . C h apte r S i x d i s cu s ses the fi na nci a l and phy s i ca l output imp l i cat i ons of exp o rt hogget p rodu ct i on u nder a range of p roduct i on st rateg i es . Sens i t i v i ty ana l y ses are p res ented for a ra n ge of mode l ass umpt i ons , system assump t i ons and pa ramet ers used i n the study . C h apte r Seven p resent s a theo ret i ca l bas i s for i nt e racti ve di s c us s i on wi th f a rme rs and di s c u s ses the app roach us ed i n th i s study , and the f i nd i n gs ema nat i n g from the d i s cu s s i on s on exp o rt hogget p roduction . C h apt e r E i ght p res ent s and di s cu s s es the res u l t s and conc l u s i ons of exp ort hogget p roduct i on syst ems . C h apte r N i ne evaluates the study from t h ree pe rs pect i ves ; t he s u i tab i l i ty of the rese a rch app roach to the res ea rch top i c , the app roach and met hods u s ed i n the res ea rch p roces s , and the extent to wh i ch the p roj ect ach i eved the study obj ect i ves . 2 . 1 I NTRODUCT ION CHAPTER TWO STUDY CONTEXT AND AP PROACH Th i s ch apter de ve l op s the cont ext i n wh i ch the stu dy meet s i ns t i t u t i ona l ( Advi s o ry Serv i ces D i v i s i on of the Mi n i st ry of Ag r i cu l t u re and F i s h e ri es ) and i ndu st ry ( on - f a rm , a nd to a l es se r ext ent , off -fa rm ) req u i rements a ri s i n g from the i de nt i fi cat i on of a new product i o n oppo rt u n i ty ( export hogget p roduct i on ) . The ch apter a l s o di s cu s ses the app roach used i n the study and re l at es the app roach taken to the di ffe rent , though re l ated , i ns t i tut i ona l a nd i nd u st ry req ui reme nts of a res ea rch p roj ect i n vesti gat i ng a new p roduct i on sy stem . 2 . 2 THE ECO NOM ICS SECT I ON OF THE ADV I SORY SER V I CES D I V I S I ON OF THE M I N I STRY OF AGR I CULTURE AND F I SHER I E S The Economi cs Sect i on of the Ad v i s ory Servi ces D i v i s i on comp ri ses a sma l l g rou p of speci a l i st Adv i s o ry Offi cers ope rat i ng wi th i n the· Advi s o ry Servi ces D i v i s i on of the Mi n i s t ry of Agr i c u l tu re and F i she ri es ( MAF ) . I n orde r to app reci ate the ro l e of the Economi cs Sect i on i n farm ma na gement resea rch , i t i s he l p fu l to cons i de r br i e f l y f i rs t l y the broad obj ect i ves o f t h e MAF as a who l e , and second l y the mo re s pec i fi c obj ect i ves and fu nct i ons of Ad v i s o ry Serv i ces D i v i s i on ( ASD ) a s they re l ate to the overa l l MAF obj ect i ve s . ( a ) M i n i st ry of Agr i cu l tu re and F i s h e ri es ( MAF ) The M i n i s t ry of Ag r i cu l tu re and F i s h e ri es has the obj ect i ves of ' he l p i n g fa rmi n g , hort i cu l t u ra l and fi s h i n g i nd u st ri es to i dent i fy and rea l i se the i r pot ent i a l s , to ma i nta i n and whe re pos s i b l e i mp rove N ew Zea l and ' s an i ma l , fi s h and p l a nt hea l t h statu s , a n d t o provi de ou r cu stome rs wi th qua l i ty assu ran ces t hat faci l i t at e effect i ve ma rket i n g of ou r p roduct s ' ( MAF D i rect orat e , 1 983 a ) . To ach i eve these obj ect i ves , the MAF has fou r ma i n "res u l t s a reas " (MAF Di rectorat e , 1 983 a ) : " ( i ) I n c reased p roduct i v i ty fo r fa rmi n g , hort i cu l tu re and fi s h i ng; by p rovi di n g resea rch , ad vi s o ry and fi s h e ri es ma na gement servi ces wh i ch as s i st i n so l vi ng prob l ems , i mp rov i n g p rodu ct i v i ty , and rea l i s i ng new op portu n i t i es i n fa rmi n g , hort i cu l tu re and fi s h i n g . ( i i ) P rot ect i on and enh ancement of an i ma l , fi sh and p l ant hea l t h by prevent i n g the i nt roduct i on of exot i c an i ma l f i s h and p l ant di seases and pests , so prot ect i ng New Zeal a nd ' s status as an app roved sou rce of speci es or p roduce , a nd by i mp rovi n g a n i ma l , fi s h and p l a nt hea l th s t atu s wi t h i n New Zea l a nd . ( i i i ) Qua l i ty As s u rance sy st ems fo r p ri ma ry p rodu ct export s ; by a s su r i n g overseas Gove rnment agenci es , overseas cu stome rs , ( and New Zea l and cons ume rs whe re requ i red ) of the con s i s tent pu r i ty and safety of New Zea l a nd food p rodu ct s , bas i n g such qua l i ty a s su ran ce on mon i tor i n g q u a l i ty cont rol systems i n i nd u s t ry . 7 ( i v ) P o l i cy ad v i ce by adv i s i n g Gove rnment and i nd u s t ry of p o l i c i es wh i ch wi l l p romot e growth and deve l op ment of f a rmi n g , hort i cu l t u re and fi s h i n g and faci l i tate eff i c i ent p roces s i n g and ma r k et i n g , and wh i ch wi l l ma i nt a i n rea s onab l e res ou rces and enhance the New Zea l a nd envi ronment . ": ( b ) Advi sory Se rv i ces D i vi s i on ( ASD ) Advi sory Serv i ces D i vi s i on , wh i ch i s one of ten di vi s i on s wi t h i n t h e MAF , has fou r speci f i c areas of res pons i b i l ty i n: ( i ) Ad v i s o ry act i v i t i es ( i i ) Qua l i ty assu rance of p l a nt s ( i i i ) Pest and di sease cont rol o f p l ants and bees , and (iv ) F a rm T rai n i n g I n st i tutes . I n 1982, the ge ne ra l obj ect i ve of ASD was stated to be : " to p romot e the adopt i on by fa rme rs a nd hort i cu l t u ral i st s of agr i cu l t u ra l a nd ma na gement p ra ct i ces wh i ch wi l l res u l t i n i nc reased ef fi c i enc i es , quant i t i es and qua l i ty of p rodu ct i on for exp o rt ( He rcu s , 1982). 8 To fu l f i l these ASD respon s i b i l i t i es and ach i eve the ASD obj e ct i ve , ASD emp l oy s bot h adv i s o ry ( Fa rm Advi s o ry Offi c e rs , and H o rt i cu l t u ra l Advi sory Offi ce rs ) and tech n i ca l staff . I n genera l , advi sory staff are i n vo l ved ma i n l y i n ( i ) and ( i v ) , wh i l st tech n i ca l staff have the greatest i n vo l vement i n ( i i ) and ( i i i ) . St aff numbe rs va ry , but i n mi d 1982, ASD emp l oyed 148 F a rm Advi sory Offi cers ( FAO s ) and 5 3 Ho rt i cu l tu ra l Adv i s o ry Offi cers ( HAOs ) a s we l l as addi t i o na l tech n i cal and admi n i s t r at i on staff (M i n i st ry of Agr i cu l tu re and F i s h e r i es , 1982 a ) . 9 Wi th i n the ge ne ra l occu pati o n a l g rou p des i gnated as Ad v i s o ry Off i ce rs ( FAO o r HAO ) f u rthe r di f fe renti ati on of res pons i bi l i ti es occu rs . The ma i n g rou p i n g compr i se s "genera l " Advi s o ry Off i cers ( FAO or HAO ) who deal di rect l y wi th fa rme rs i n a n extens i on ro l e . I n th i s rol e "genera l " Advi s o ry Off i c e rs a re expected to p rovi de a sou nd tech n i c a l and mana gement serv i ce to the p r i ma ry produ c i n g i ndu st ry to obta i n rewa rds and i mp roved p roduct ion con s i stent wi th good l a nd use . I n addi ti on to these exten s i on fu n cti ons , adv i s e rs a l s o have an i ntel l i gence rol e i n wh i ch they a re expected to def i ne di stri ct p ro b l ems or op portu n i ti es req u i ri ng resea rch , and to rep o rt to the i r Contro l l i ng O fficer ( S cott , 1980). I n contrast to "genera l " Advi s o ry Off i ce rs , " s peci a l i st " offi c e rs o f the E conomi cs Section of ASD do not dea l di rect l y wi th fa rme rs in an extens i on rol e . Rather , the 1 5 " s pe ci a l ist " offi c e rs of the Economi cs Secti on s e rve the MAF and ASD obj e ct i ves th rou gh serv i ci n g the needs of ge ne ral ad viso ry of f i c e rs and the ASD Di recto rate . The " s peci a l ist" officers of the E conomi cs Secti on are des i gnated FAO ( Economi cs ) or HAO ( E conomi cs ) . R itch i e ( 1983) def ined fou r ma in areas of res pons ibi l i ty i n wh i ch FAO ( E conom i cs ) and HAO ( E conomi cs ) a re expected to ope rate . These a re : ( i ) E va l uati on and de vel opment of improved ( new ) producti on a nd ma ngement systems I n this rol e , staf f of the E conomi cs Secti on have a s pec i fi c res pon s i bi l i ty for i n i ti ati ng and co-o rdi nati n g mo re deta i l ed farm ma na gement resea rch tha n that u nde rtak en by gene ra l Adv i s o ry Off i cers . 1 0 ( i i ) Staff trai n i ng and deve l opment Th i s a rea of res pons i b i l i ty i nvo l ves pas s i n g on to Adv i s o ry Offi cers new i nf o rmati on on both the tech no l ogy a nd methods of anal y s i s res u l ti n g from fa rm ma na gement res ea rch . ( i i i ) R egi ona l and i ndu stry deve l opment Th i s ro l e i n vol ves adv i ce at both p roducer and i ndu stry l eve l s as to how to ach i eve ta rgets and rea l i se ma rket potenti a l i n i denti f i ed growth a reas . ( i v ) Po l i cy gu i dance Staff of the Economi c s Sect i on fu l f i l th i s ro l e th rou gh mon i tor i ng on -farm and i nd u stry i mp l i cati ons of po l i cy dec i s i on s , and reporti n g these to Central Gove rnment . Th i s sect i on has de ve l oped the context i n wh i ch staff of the Economi cs Sect i on are pa rt of an ASD team whose ma i n a rea of res pons i b i l i ty i s i n p rovi di n g a sound tech n i ca l and ma nagement advi s o ry serv i ce to fa rme rs . ASD i s on l y one of ten di vi s i ons i nv o l ved i n ach i e vi ng broade r MAF obj e cti ves . The next secti on concent rates i n greate r deta i l on the res pons i b i l i ti es of the Economi cs Sect i on i n farm ma na gement res ea rch as ap p l i ca b l e i n th i s stu dy . 2 .2 . 1 Ro l e of Econom i cs Secti on i n F a rm Management Resea rch Many wri te rs have p res ented defi n i ti on s of fa rm ma na gement and farm ma na gement res ea rch . ( C andl e r , 1 96 2 ; Cand l e r and S a rge nt , 1 9 65 ; Dav i es , 1 9 68 ; N i x , 1 9 79 ; Di l l on , 1 980 ; Lon g , 1 981 ) . Thou gh d i ffe ri n g i n te rm i nol ogy , the common th read ru n n i n g th rou gh the def i n i t i ons i s that fa rm mana gement i s conc e r n ed wi th fa rme r ma n i pu l at i on of fa rmi n g syst ems i n an u ncert a i n env i ronment i n orde r to ach i eve an obj e ct i ve or obj ect i ves. And , that i n the broades t s ense fa rm management research i s conce rned wi th unde rstand i ng th i s p roces s , usua l l y wi th a vi ew to i mp rov i n g spec i f i c aspect s of the p roces s . 1 1 The fa rm mana geme nt p roces s cons i sts l a rge l y of the co-ordi nat i on of i nformat i on f rom a ra n ge of sou rces and accord i n g l y fa rm ma na gement res ea r ch cove rs a wi de s u bj ect area f rom pu re l y tech n i ca l to pu re l y ma na gement resea rch and f rom pu re l y met hodo l og i c a l to pu re l y beh a ­ vi ou ra l resea rch. Howeve r , becau se o f ASD ' s res pons i b i l i ty wi th i n the MAF , fa rm ma na geme nt res ea rch undertaken by st a f f of the Economi cs Sect i on i s neces s a ri l y mo re rest ri ct ed i n i t s perspect i ve. Accord i n g l y the p r i me obj ect i ve of fa rm ma na gement resea rch by staff of the Economi c Sect i on shou l d be to faci l i tate the ASD respons i bi l i ty of as s i st i ng fa rme rs wi th the de ve l opment of the i r capabi l i ty to ma nage thei r fa rmi n g syst ems . Staff of the Economi cs Sect i on are part of a l a rger "team" whos e ma i n a rea of respons i b i l i ty i s i n p rovi d i n g an ad v i s o ry serv i ce to fa rme rs. I n orde r to p rov i de u pdated techn i ca l and ma na gement adv i ce on new or i mp roved ma na gement and p rodu ct i on systems it i s neces s a ry fo r some membe r ( s ) of the team to be i n a pos i t i on to eva l uate the fi ndi n g s of resea rch , as we l l as de ve l op and eva l uate new sy stems . It i s i n th i s ro l e that staff of the E conom i cs Sect i on have a maj o r res pons i b i li ty to the ad v i s o ry fu n ct i on of ASD as a who l e . E conomi cs Sect i on staff are expected , i n con j u n ct i on wit h ot h e r offi c e rs ( bot h wi t h i n a n d out s i de ASD ) , to "i dent i fy those fa rmi n g systems wh i ch show g reatest p romi s e and de ve l op them wi t h key i nd i v i du a l farme rs . Th i s p rocess wi l l con s eq u e nt l y l ead to the deve l opment of new or i mp roved fa rmi n g sy s t ems " ( R i tch i e , 1 983 ) . I n addi t i on to th i s o n -farm deve l opment ro l e the autho r be l i eves that E conomi cs Sect i on staff al s o have a res p o n s i b i l i ty act i ve l y to u nde rtake ap p l i ed res ea rch i nto new p rodu ct i on and mana geme nt sys tems whe re pot ent i a l opport u n i t i es have been i de nt i f i ed , but whe re s u ch systems do not cu r re nt l y exi st . 1 2 Becau se of the i r role wi t h i n a n exten s i on s e rv i ce , Econom i c s Sect i on sta ff have a res pons i bi li ty to serv i ce the i nfo rmat i on req u i rement s of Adv i s o ry Offi c e rs . Th i s requ i res Econom i c s Sect i on staff to pas s on res ea rch fi nd i n g s on new p roduct i on and ma n a gement systems , i n addi ­ t i o n to fami li a ri s i n g FAOs wi th the met h od s of analy s i s u sed i n the res earch and how the fi nd i n gs we re de r i ved . I n th i s res pect , ASD Economi cs Sect i on staff have a staff t ra i n i n g role . A fu rt h e r req u i rement o f membe rs of the E conom i c s Sect i on i s t o supply reg i onal p l a n n i n g or i nd u st ry ad v i ce on s i t u at i ons where adopt i on of new fa rmi n g systems has i mpli cat i ons out s i de the fa rm gat e . I t i s i n t h e cont ext of a FAO ( Economi cs ) u nde rt a k i ng a spec i f i c res earch p roj e ct as a membe r of ASD t h at th i s thes i s i s set . I n t h i s study a new fa rm p roduct i on opportu n i ty , export hogget , has been i de n ­ t i f i ed . The ta s k i s to eva l uate t h e fa rm ma na gement impli cat i on s of pot ent i al exp o rt hogget p roduct i on sy st ems . The research app roach mu s t be comme n s u rat e wi t h the res pons i b i l i t i es of a FAO ( E conomi cs ) i n meet i n g the a nt i c i pated i nfo rmat i on requ i rement s of fa rme rs and the a s s oci at ed a g r i cu l t u ral i ndu st ry . If the p ract i ce i s feas i ble and des i rable , FAO s wi ll req u i re i nformat i on to de ve l op extens i on p rog ram­ mes to p romot e the p ract i ce . Con vers e l y , i f the sy stem i s not fea s i ble or des i ra ble , FAOs may st i l l requ i re i n format i on as to why the p ract i ce can not be recommended . S i mi la rly , i nd u s t ry rep resentat i ves may req u i re i nformat i on su ggest i n g how the p ropos al could be made att ract i ve t o fa rme rs or , i f i t is att ract i ve , wh at the expect ed response mi ght be unde r gi ven ci r­ cumstances . Alt hough it i s out s i de the scope of th i s thes i s , i n p rac­ t i ce i f a new p roduct i on system i s des i rable , FAO ( Economi cs ) cou l d expect to be i nvolved i n both the developme nt of an extens i on p ro g ramme wi t h i n ASD , to encou ra ge adopt i on of the p ract i ce , as well a s ad v i s i n g i nd u s t ry of the i mpli cat i ons of the p ract i ce . Becau s e the p r i ma ry goa l of resea rch act i v i t i es performed by staff of the Economi c s Sect i on i s to ca r ry out ana l yses wh i ch wi l l faci l i tat e t h e pe rforma nce of ASD , resea rch unde rt a k e n by FAO ( Economi c s ) h as seve ral requ i rement s . I n the author 1 S opi n i on these are: ( a ) That the res ea rch i s ab l e to be compl eted re l at i ve l y qui c k l y when res pond i n g t o a new ly i de nt i f i ed p rob l em o r opp o rt u n i ty . 1 3 ( b ) That the res ea rch needs to be eas i l y unde rt a k e n , but adequate l y comp reh e ns i ve t o meet tech n i ca l , ma n a gement and i nd u s t ry requ i rement s . I n the author 1 S vi ew , i t i s mo re impo rt a nt to u nde rt a k e a l e s s ri gorous res ea rch p rog ramme to p rov i de genera l ( 1 1 ba l l -pa rk 11 type ) i nformat i on qu i c k l y , rat her than taki n g a l on ge r t i me to p rodu ce mo re det a i l ed i nformat i on . ( c ) That the res ea rch needs to i de nt i fy a reas of ma nageme nt cont ro l and sens i t i v i ty i n the produ ct i on syt em , and i ndi cat e the i mpact of ma na gement p ract i ces on the system 1 S perf o rma nce . ( d ) That the resea rch app roach needs to be credi b l e i n the ey es of bot h FAO s and farme rs . To t h i s end i ntera ct i on wi th fa rme rs and/or advi s e rs i s va l uab l e i n p rov i d i ng a p ract i ca l i np ut to the res ea rch p roces s . ( e ) That the res ea rch i s ab l e to h i gh l i ght any cu rrent k n ow l edge de fi c i e n ci es i mport a nt to ei t h e r res ea rch e rs or ext ens i on· wo rkers . That i s , to be ab l e to i de nt i fy those a reas whe re fu rt h e r res ea rch i s requ i red , and/or i dent i fy areas whe re cu rrent farme r know l edge or be l i ef s a re i nadequate or i ncor rect . ( f ) That the res ea rch i s u sefu l i n a s s i st i ng wi t h the de ve l opme nt of ext en s i o n programmes t o encou rage adopt i on of wo rthwh i l e p ract i ces , o r i f nece s s a ry , d i s cou ra ge undes i ra b l e p ract i ce s . ( g ) That the resea rch res u l t s i n fi ndi n g s wh i ch can be u sefu l l y e xt rapo l ated to meet i ndu st ry requ i reme nt s . The i ndu st ry req u i rement s a re di s c u s s ed fu rt h e r i n Sect i on 2 . 3 . 2 . 3 I NDUSTR Y REQU I R EME NTS The i nd u s t ry req u i rements wh i ch the aut h o r bel i eves need to be con s i de red by staff of the E conomi cs Sect i on when p l a n n i ng a res ea rch p roj e ct a re di scu s sed i n th i s sect i on . The requ i rements a re con s i de red from two aspect s: ( a ) On-fa rm req u i rement s ; and ( b ) Off-fa rm req u i rement s . 2 . 3 . 1 O n-Farm R equ i rement s 14 When a new or ch anged ma na gement p ract i ce o r p rodu ct i on sy stem becomes ava i l a b l e to the fa rmi ng sect o r , fa rme rs seek i nformat i on about the p ract i ce o r sy stem be fore ma k i n g "adopt " or " non -adopt " deci s i ons . I n the au thor ' s expe ri ence , fa rme rs eva l uat i n g a new product i on sys t em seek i nfo rmat i on i n f i ve ma i n a reas of conce rn : ( a ) I s the system feas i b l e ( u nder exi s t i n g cond i t i ons ) , and what c h a nge s wi l l be req u i red ( to cu r rent p ract i ces ) ? ( b ) I s the system prof i t ab l e ? ( c ) I s the system c ompat i b l e (w i t h exi st i ng systems ) ? ( d ) W hat a re the ri s k s ( u nc e rt a i n t i es ) a s soci at ed wi t h the sy stem? ( e ) Ma nagement confi dence t o execute and cont rol the sys t em i n o rde r to ach i eve obj ect i ve ( s ) . 15 F a rm ma n a geme nt res ea rch , unde rt a k e n by membe rs of the E conomi cs Sect i on mu st be capa b l e of meet i n g these i nformat i on need s and a l t e r i n g fa rme r be l i ef s ( conf i dence ) i n the i r abi l i ty to imp l ement s ucces s fu l l y a ma na gement sy stem to execute and cont rol the p roduct i on system . The speci f i c i nformat i on req u i red wi l l va ry accordi n g to the new p ro­ du ct i on sy s t em u nde r cons i de rat i on . Accordi n g l y , res ea rch unde rt a k en by st aff of the E conomi cs Sect i on mu st be capab l e of prov i d i ng i nfor­ mat i on ove r a ra nge of detai l , and a l so i nd i cate how such i nformat i on can be i nt eg rated i nto p ract i ca l on -farm p roduct i on systems . I n t h i s context , fa rm ma na gement res ea rch undertak e n by Economi c s Sect i on staff i s as mu ch de vel opment as i t i s resea rch . 2.3.2 Off- F a rm R equ i rement s The of f-farm i ndu st ry and/o r re g i on a l req u i rements of new p rodu ct i on syst ems can be broad l y c l a s s i f i ed i nto i mp l i cat i ons for res ou rce dema nd and/o r p roduct supp l y . ( a ) Resou rce Demand A l l but the most s i mp l e chan ges i n on -farm p rodu ct i on st rategi es wi l l a l t e r the res ou rce requ i rements of a p roduct i on sys t em . A changed p roduct i on system may , at a ve ry ba s i c l eve l , req u i re i nc reased farm i nputs such as fenc i ng materi a l s , f e rt i l i se r o r , as i n t h i s study , drench . At a mo re dramat i c l eve l , i r r i gat i on p l a n ne rs w i l l want to know the l i k e l i hood of wat e r-dema nd i ng de ve l opments occu rr i n g and what thes e demands may be . Si mi l a r l y a new p rodu ct i on system i f wi de l y adopted may , fo r examp l e , a l t er seas o n a l l a bou r dema nds wi t h i mp l i ca ­ t i ons fo r reg i ona l p l a nne rs cons i de ri n g t h e prov i s i on o f faci ­ l i t i es for a t rans i ent l abou r force . ( b ) P roduct Supply New or ch anged p roduct i on syst ems may a l t e r the l e ve l a nd / o r p rodu ct mi x from a fa rm . Serv i c i ng a n d ma rket i ng sect o rs may wa nt i nf o rmat i on on the l i k e l y i mpact fo r them of such changes t o fa rm p rodu ct i v i ty . S i mi l a r l y , p roces s i n g and ma rket i ng s ect o rs may req u i re i n format i on as to how mu ch to pay farme rs or growe rs i n order to ach i e ve ta rget s and rea l i se ma rk et pot ent i a l . A l t hou gh th i s thes i s i s l a rge l y unconce rned wi th off-farm cons i de rat i ons , such cons i de rat i ons are neve rt h el e s s an i mp o rt ant res pons i b i l i ty of the E con omi cs Sect i on (R i tch i e , 1 983 ) • 2 . 4 STUDY AP PROACH 1 6 T radi t i o n a l l y , the th ree maj or b road pe rspect i ve app roaches to generat i n g i nf o rmat i on fo r fa rm ma na gement res ea rch have bee n su rveys and ca s e stud i es , p roduct i on experi ment s , and sy nthes i s ( mode l l i ng ) (Dav i es , 1 968 ) . I n recent yea rs an i nt e ract i ve ap p roach i nv o l v i ng an i nt e ract i on of mode l l i ng and phy s i ca l f i el d resea rch has bee n s u g gested ( Hutton , 1 9 7 3 ) a n d used i n fa rm mana gement res e a rch ( M i l l e r , 1 982 ) . F o r t h i s pa rt i cu l a r study , su rvey s and case stu d i es we re not pos s i b l e a s the p rodu ct i on sy stem unde r con s i derati o n ( expo rt hogget p rodu c­ t i on ) di d not exi st . The p rodu ct i on experi ment app roach was concep­ t ua l ly feas i b l e but i n p ract i c a l te rms was not cons i de red to be a v a l i d ap p roac h owi n g to the u nava i l a bi l i ty of fa rm resea rch u n i t s on wh i ch to expe ri ment and/or mon i t o r expo rt hogget p roduct i on . Thi s l eft sy nt h es i s as the most fea s i b l e res earch app roach to use i n t h i s study: And , because of the i n st i tu t i o n a l and i ndust ry requ i re ­ ment s of research performed by a FAO ( Economi c s ) a n i ntera ct i ve app roac h was con s i de red des i ra b l e ; hence the evol ut i on of a th ree­ phase resea rch app roach ( p res e nted i n F i gu re 2 . 1 ) u sed i n th i s study . 1 7 FIGURE 2.1 Dia�ammatic Representation of Research Approach Used in Study PHASE I PHASE II ( a) ( b ) ( c) (d) Desk Research --------------------------� Farmer Reaction <1---� ----� Define Problem/ Opportunities Situation Analysis Sys terns Modelling ( Synthesis ) �Systems Analysis ... , ·�Systems Sythesis.J - Feed Budgeting ( Feed Balances) - Simulation Output Analys is System Output Gross Margins Analysis Sensitivity Analysis I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ( e) Interactive Discussion ( System Validation) PHASE III RESEARCH FI NDI NGS ( Use in Decision Sl�port) 1 8 F i gu re 2 . 1 i l l u st rates the es s ent i a l natu re of the research app roach u sed i n th i s study . It i nvo l ved sepa rate but i nt e g rated phases of des k resea rch and fa rme r react i on , bot h of wh i ch cont ri bute to the f i n a l resea rch fi ndi ngs . The components of th i s research app roach a re n ow b r i efly di scu s sed . 2 . 4 . 1 P rob l em/Oppo rtu n i ty Def i n i t i on I n orde r to faci l i tate fut u re resea rch a cl e a r unde rs t andi n g of the f a rm mana gement i s sues unde r cons i de rat i on a re req u i red . I n th i s study , the ma na gement i s s ues under con s i derat i on are the fea s i b i l i ty , p rof i tabi l i ty and mana gement i mp l i cat i on s of expo rt p rodu ct i on on l owe r No rt h I s l a nd sheep and beef fa rms . Exp o rt hogget i s def i ned as a 14 to 26 k g sheep carcase ( ewe or wet her ) of l ow fat content s l au ghte red du r i n g the peri od 1 Oct obe r to l ate Decembe r . 2 . 4 . 2 Si tuat i on An a l ys i s T h i s p a rt of a research p roj ect i n vo l ves a mo re deta i l ed inves t i gat i on of the cu r rent s i tuat i on wi th wh i ch the study i s conce rned . It i s a p e r i od du r i ng wh i ch the feas i bi l i ty of the p roposed resea rch p roject i s es tab l i s hed , and resea rch i deas de vel oped . Rev i ews of l i teratu re showed that there was i nt e rest i n the p ropos i ­ t i on of exp o rt hogget p rodu ct i on ( New Zea l a nd Meat P rodu ce r , 1 982 ; B ryant , 1 982 ; Da v i son , 1 982 ) . The ab i l i ty of hoggets to p roduce re l at i ve l y l a rge l ean ca rcases at 15 to 18 mon t h s of age was al so estab l i shed ( Ki rt on et a l , 1 9 7 4 ; Ratt ray et a l , 1 9 7 6 ; Ki rt on et al , 1 9 82 ) . 1 9 D i s cu s s i on wi th t h e New Zea l a n d Meat P rodu cers Board ( L.I.B ryant pers. comm. ) , New Zea l a nd Meat and Wool Boa rd ' s Economi c S e rv i ce ( R.M.Dav i son pe rs. commJ and the MAF ( W.A. Roya l , J.F.Scott and D.E.Wr i ght pe rs. comm. ) , i n ea r l y 1 983 , confi rmed that a stu dy of the f a rm ma n ageme nt i mp l i cat i ons of export hogget p rodu ct i on appea red to be wa r ranted. After di scu s s i on wi th MAF Fa rm Advi s ory Off i c e rs an i n i t i a l su rvey of 22 fa rms in the l ower No rth I s l and was u nde rt a k e n as part of the s i tuat i on a n a l ys i s phase of the resea rch p rog ramme. The i ntent i ons of t h i s i n i t i a l su rvey we re to fami l i a ri s e the aut h o r wi th l owe r N o rth I s l a nd fa rmi n g sy stems and to eva l u ate the pot ent i a l supp l y of export h og get from these fa rmi n g sy st ems . Su rvey fa rms we re sel ect ed by l oca l F a rm Advi s o ry Offi c e rs on the ba s i s of be i n g rep resent at i ve of f a rms i n the l oca l a rea and hav i n g ewe hogget growt h rat e dat a from wea n i ng to two-t oot h mat i n g. The su rvey bri ef l y exami ned stock p o l i c i es , ma nagement p ract i ces and stock pe rfo rmance wi th pa rt i cu l a r emp has i s on l amb /hogget /two -t oot h growt h p rofi l es . F a rme rs we re a l s o a s k ed fo r the i r ge nera l react i on t o an export s ch edu l e f o r hog get . ( Th e fu l l ques t i onna i re i s p resented i n Append i x One ) . Su rvey fa rme rs cove red an a rea from Ta i hape to south of Masterton and i nvo l ved fa rmi ng sy stems ra n g i ng from i ntens i ve mi xed crop p i n g fa rms to ext ens i ve h i l l cou nt ry fa rms . Acco rdi n g to Cand l e r ( 1965} the p u rpose of s uch a su rvey i n the s i tuat i on ana l ys i s phase i s to " g i ve a c l e a r p i ctu re of wh at fa rme rs are cu r rent l y doi n g and then attempt to synthes i se a pi ct u re of the app rop ri at e p roduct i on sy stem and p rof i tab i l i ty of fa rmi n g wi th the new p rodu ct or p ract i ce". The s u rvey conf i rmed the p roduct i on potent i a l for export hogget u nde r condi t i ons of rel at i ve p rof i t abi l i ty , exi st i n g ma nagement p ract i ces and k n own p roduct i on tech n o l o g i es. 2 . 4 . 3 Syst ems Mode l l i ng The p r i ma ry obj e ct i ve of the des k resea rch phase of the study was to syn t hes i se des k mode l s of export hogget p roduct i on systems to be used a s the ba s i s fo r i nt e ract i ve di s cu s s i ons wi th fa rme rs l a t e r i n the stu dy . 20 Th e fi rst stage of sy stems model l i n g i n vo l ves a study of the components and the i r re l at i on s h i p s wi t h the p rodu ct i on sys t em . The phase of component res ea rch has bee n refer red to as Systems Ana l ys i s ( Wri ght , 1 9 7 1 ) . The pu rpose of sy st ems a na lys i s i s to p rov i de an u nde rstandi n g of the p rodu ct i on sy stem , and to de ve l op fu rt h e r k n owl edge about the system 1 S components and re l at i ons h i p s . The second phase of sy s t ems model l i ng i n vol ves the sy nt hes i s of a new/ i mp roved p roduct i on sys t em . Th i s p rocess i s refer red to as Systems Sy nthes i s ( W ri ght , 1 9 7 1 ) . The mode l l i ng met hods u sed i n th i s stu dy to de ve l op export hog get p roduct i on sy st ems we re a combi nat i on of a s i mu l at i on programme , wh i ch cou l d ge ne rate l amb and hogget feed req u i rements gi ve n the req u i red a n n u a l l i vewei ght growt h p rofi l es , and feed bu dget i ng to eva l uate the ef fect of export hogget p roduct i on on pastu re demand . 2 . 4 . 4 Output Ana lys i s I n orde r to estab l i s h that a new o r chan ged system i s bet t e r at ach i evi n g a p re-s peci f i ed goa l or ove rcomi ng a p rob l em than we re ex i st i ng sy stem5 , some fo rm of out put ana l ys i s i s req u i red . I n fa rm ma na gement res ea rch output from a p rodu ct i on system i s u s ua l l y me asu red i n ei t h e r fi nanc i a l o r phy s i c a l u n i t s . I n th i s stu dy the fi nanc i a l i mp l i cat i on s of the des k mode l s of export hogget p roduct i on we re eva l u at ed by ca l cu l at i n g gros s ma rg i ns. Th i s i nvo l ved p repa ri ng statu s q u o gros s ma rg i n s for each stat u s quo ( p re export hog get ) s i tuat i on , and the app rop ri ate post export hogget s i tu at i on � F rom the di fference i t was pos s i b l e to ca l cu l ate a b reak -even schedu l e p r i ce for export hogget . The effect of export hogget p rodu ct i on on meat and woo l output was est i mated by compa ri ng fa rm output fo r the pre and post export hogget s i tu a t i ons. The effect s of ch ang i ng va r i o u s cost and retu rn pa ramete rs , out put pa ramet e rs , and ma nagement fact o rs on the break -even sched u l e fo r exp o rt hog get we re al so exami ned by gros s ma rg i n a na l ys i s. Th i s i s refe r red to i n th i s stu dy as Sens i t i v i ty Ana l y s i s. 2 . 4 . 5 F a rm Mon i to ri ng Sch eme The des k mode l s of export hogget p roduct i on sy stems a re ba sed on fi ve synt h et i c rep resentat i ve fa rm mode l s u sed by ASD i n thei r fa rm mon i to r i n g sch eme . Because of the i mporta nce of these ASD rep res e ntat i ve fa rm mode l s i n t h i s stu dy , a br i ef exp l a nat i on of the s cheme and the fi ve statu s quo model s u sed i n the study i s p resented i n th i s sect i on . F a rm mo n i tor i n g i s u nde rt a k e n by ASD a s a forma l means of obs e rv i n g and rep o rt i ng s i gn i fi cant happen i ngs t o Cent ra l Gove rnment as su ch happe n i n g s occu r bot h on , and off , fa rms. The fa rm mon i tor i ng a pp roach i s ba s ed on sep a rate l y col l ect i n g and repo rt i ng budgeted fi n a n ci a l i nf o rmat i on fo r a l l of the maj o r fa rm ty pes i n New Zea l a nd. I nd i v i d ua l fa rm ad vi s e rs each have a res pons i b i l i ty to mon i to r a n umbe r of fa rms , typ i ca l of the fa rm types i n the reg i on. At regu l a r i nt e r va l s each ad vi s e r subm i t s to hi s reg i ona l fa rm mo n i to ri n g cont ro l l e r ant i c i pated phy s i c a l a n d fi nanc i a l i nfo rmat i o n f o r the 21 next t h ree months. I n i t i a l l y the n , the fi nanc i a l i nformat i on i s bas ed 2 2 on a se r i es of ca s h forecasts , but at the e n d o f each yea r act u a l dat a f rom fa rm accou nts i s col l e ct ed and u s ed as a bas i s for compa r i son wi t h the bud geted i nf o rmat i on co l l e ct ed p rev i ou s l y . Each regi ona l fa rm mon i t o ri n g cont ro l l e r , who i s gene ral l y a FAO ( Economi cs ) , u se s the i nf o rmat i on s u p p l i ed by ad v i s e rs to bu i l d a regi ona l mode l fo r each s i gn i f i cant fa rm type i n the reg i on . Every th ree months the reg i ona l mode l i s updat ed phys i ca l l y and fi n a nc i a l l y o n the ba s i s of i nfo rmat i on supp l i ed by adv i sory offi ce rs . Reg i ona l mon i to ri n g cont ro l l e rs meet regu l a r l y a nd co l l ate the i r i nf o rmat i on i nto nat i on a l mode l s i n wh i ch i nformat i on i s wei ghted ac cord i n g to the nat i ona l i mp o rt a n ce of each fa rm type . I n th i s man ne r i nfo rmati on from i ndi v i dua l fa rms and di s cu s s i on groups i s gradu a l ly bu i l t up i nto nat i ona l mode l s . The sch eme , v i a the nat i ona l mode l s , fo rms a bas i s on wh i ch agri cu l t u ral po l i cy deci s i ons can be ba s ed . Nat i ona l l y , 1 3 d i ffe rent mode l s of sheep and beef fa rms a re p repa red by ASD of MAF . Th i s stu dy i s ba s ed on fi ve regi ona l fa rm mon i tori ng fa rmi ng sy stems i n the l owe r N o rt h I s l a nd . B r i ef des cr i pt i ons of each mode l u s i ng Novembe r 1982 i nformat i on fo l l ows , ( for fu l l det a i l s refer to Appendi ces Two to S i x i nc l u s i ve ) . These pa rt i c u l a r mode l s we re chosen to cove r a range of fa rmi ng sy stems i n di fferent reg i ons , unde r va ry i n g c l i mat i c cond i t i ons and sta ges of devel opment . ( a ) Manawatu Sma l l H i l l ( Mode l 1 ) Th i s mode l rep res ents reason a b l y i nt en s i ve h i l l count ry fa rms . The model fa rm i s of 200 effect i ve hect a res wi nte ri ng 1 6 50 b reed i n g ewes and rep l acement stock , and 80 d ry catt l e . L amb i n g pe rforman ce i s 1 03% and a l l stock a re sol d p r i me . ( b ) ( c ) ( d ) ( e ) Hawkes Bay/Wa i ra rapa Good H i l l ( Mode l 2 ) Th i s mode l rep resents East Coast easy/ good h i l l cou nt ry i n a reas of bett e r summe r ra i nf a l l . The model fa rm i s 340 effect i ve hect a res , wi n teri n g 2420 b reedi n g ewes and rep l acement stock , and 1 68 d ry catt l e . Lamb i ng pe rcent age i s 98% a nd a l l stock a re so l d p ri me. Manawatu /Ta i hape H i l l Cou nt ry ( Model 3 ) Th i s mode l rep resents bette r West Coast h i l l count ry fa rms . The model fa rm i s 300 effect i ve hect a res and wi nt e rs 2420 b reedi ng ewes and rep l acement stock , and 1 20 d ry catt l e . L amb i ng pe rcentage i s 95% . Ap p roxi mat e l y 7 0% of l ambs a re s o l d pr i me and 30% store . Catt l e are so l d fat . Hawkes Bay/Wa i ra rapa Ha rder H i l l ( Mode 1 4 ) 2 3 Th i s mode l rep resent s E a s t Coast fa rmi n g _ systems i n a reas whe re t h e re i s l es s summe r rai n . The mode l farm i s 630 effect i ve hect a res and wi nte rs 3500 b reedi ng ewes and rep l a cement s , 1 75 cows and rep 1 a cement s . c a l v i ng pe rcent age i s 7 8% . h a l f a re so l d store . Catt l e Ta i h ape/Wanga n u i Ha rd H i l l Lamb i n g percent a ge i s 90% a nd Hal f the l ambs a re so l d p r i me a re so l d mos t l y as weaners . ( Mode l 5 ) and and Th i s model rep res ent s fa rmi ng systems on h a rde r Wes t Coast h i 1 1 cou nt ry . The model farm i s 390 h ect a res and wi nters 2360 b reedi ng ewes and rep l a cement stoc k , and 7 0 b reedi n g cows and rep l a cement stock . Lamb i n g percent a ge i s 84% and ca l v i n g p e rcent a ge i s 84% . A l l stock a re s o l d store . 2 . 4 . 6 I nte ract i ve D i scu s s i on The second p ha se of the res earch app roach i n vo l ved an as ses sment of f a rme r react i on to export hogget p rodu ct i on sy st ems deve l oped du ri n g p hase one � T h e ap p roach i nvo l ved fa rme rs i n ( cont rol l ed ) i nt e ract i ve di s cu s s i ons du r i ng wh i ch the aut h o r att empted to match i nf o rmat i on ga i ned d u r i n g the des k research phase aga i n st cu r rent fa rme r k n owl edge , be l i efs and att i tudes as soc i ated wi th export hogget p roduct i on . The theory beh i nd the app roach , and methods u sed i n the di s cu s s i ons , a re di s cu ssed i n great e r deta i l i n Chapter Seven . 2 . 5 CHAPTER CONCLUS I ON Th i s ch apt e r estab l i s hed the cont ext i n wh i ch the stu dy i s set , by devel op i ng the rol e and fu nct i on of a FAO ( E conomi cs ) wi t h i n the Mi n i st ry of Ag r i cu l t u re and F i s he ri es . 24 The aut ho r ' s appreci at i on of the ro l e of the Economi cs Sect i on i n fa rm ma nagement research was then deve l oped . The argument was p resented that the p r i ma ry goa l of fa rm ma na gement resea rch performed by membe rs of the Economi cs Sect i on i s to faci l i tate ASD pe rfo rmance , and that as a con s eq u e n ce of t h i s goa l , fa rm ma na gement resea rch ca r r i ed out by a FAO ( E conomi cs ) h a s a numbe r of req u i rement s . These req u i rements we re p resent ed and di s c u s sed . Pos s i b l e ap p roaches to fa rm ma na gement res ea rch we re then bri ef l y revi ewed ; a nd the res ea rch app roach adopted i n th i s thes i s was i nt ro­ du ced . A b ri ef di scu s s i on of the study methodo l ogy was p resented . The ch apte r a l s o br i ef ly rev i ewed the pot ent i a l for export hogget p roduct i o n on l owe r N o rt h I s l and h i l l count ry fa rmi ng systems . 25 C h apter Th ree expands on the pot ent i a l fo r export hogget p roduct i on by f i rs t l y rev i ewi n g cu r rent sheep meat p roduct i on , and then pres e nt i ng a n a rgument for a potent i a l ro l e of exp o rt hogget as a mea n s of p roduci n g l a rge r , l eane r ca rcases for export . CHAPTER THR E E A REV I EW O F S H E E P MEAT PRODUCT I ON SYSTEMS AND THE POTENTIAL OF E XPORT HOGGET FOR LEAN MEAT PRODUCT I ON 3 . 1 I NTRODUCT I O N Th i s ch apt e r p resents a b ri ef re vi ew o f New Zea l and sheep fa rmi n g sys tems , wi t h emphas i s o n hogget compos i t i on of fl ock s , and the pot ent i a l abi l i ty of fa rmi n g sy stems to sup p l y hogget s fo r export . P roduct req u i reme nts and the pot ent i a l ma rket fo r export hogget a re di scus sed . Late r sect i o ns di scus s New Zea l and sheep meat p rodu ct i on , l amb carcase compos i t i on and known ma na geme nt strat eg i es fo r p roduci ng l ea n e r l amb ca rcases . F i na l l y , a n a rgument i s p resent ed for a potent i a l ro l e of expo rt hogget as a mea n s of produci ng l a rge r , l eaner ca rcases fo r expo rt . 3 . 2 SHEE P FARM I NG SYSTEMS I N NEW ZEALAND Th e New Zea l and Meat and Wool Board ' s E conomi c Servi ce c l a s s i f i es New Zea l and comme rci a l sheep fa rmi n g sy st ems i nto ei ght fa rmi ng s u b -groups ( Meat and Woo l B o a rd ' s E conomi c Serv i ce - Annu a l Sheep and B eef Fa rm Su rvey s ) . E st i mates fo r the number of sheep fa rms and numbe r of sheep for those fa rm ty pes fo r the yea r end i n g 30 June 1981 ( t he l atest year fo r wh i ch f i gu res are ava i l ab l e ) a re gi ven i n Tab l e 3 . 1 . TABLE 3 . 1 Est i mates of Number of Sheep Fa rms and Number of Sheep by F a rm Type 27 F a rm Type Numbe r of Numbe r of Sheep South I s l a nd H i gh Coun t ry Sou t h I s l a nd H i l l Count ry North I s l a nd H a rd H i 1 1 Country North I s l a nd H i l l Country No rt h I s l a nd I ntens i ve Fatten i n g South I s l a nd F atten i ng - B reed i n g Sou t h I s l a nd I ntens i ve Fatten i ng South I s l a nd M i xed C rop p i ng and F atten i ng TOTAL ' COMMERC I AL ' Non Sheep Fa rms TOTAL FLOC K Fa rms ( mi l l i on ) 300 2.5 900 5 . 1 1 700 7 . 5 5100 16 . 9 4400 9.3 4 1 00 13 . 1 3300 8 . 1 1800 2 . 5 2 2 ooo ( l ) 65 . o ( 1 ) 4 . 9 ( 2 ) 69 . 88 ( 3 ) Sou rce : New Zea l a nd Meat and Wool Board ' s Econ omi c Serv i ce 1 980-81 Season E st i mates Not e ( 1 ) E st i mated from New Zeal and Meat and Wool Board ' s E conomi c Serv i ce Annua l Su rvey ( 2 ) F a rms wh i ch do not meet s amp l i n g u n i t cri te ri a : v i z ( a ) greater than 7 50 stock u n i t s ( b ) p r i vate l y own ed ( c ) 80% of i ncome from sheep or catt l e ( d ) not a stud or dee r farm ( 3 ) Tot a l f l ock from A g r i c u l t u ra l Stat i st i cs ( MAF , 1 983 c ) . Tab l e 3 . 1 s hows the i mportance of North I s l and h i l l cou nt ry sheep fa rms to the North I s l and sheep i ndust ry . pa rt i cu l a r l y when con s i de rat i on i s g i ven to l amb p roduct i on from these farms ( Tab l e 3 . 2 ) . Most of the l ater det a i l of th i s stu dy re l at es di rect l y to No rt h I s l a nd H a rd H i l l . and Nort h I s l and H i l l Cou nt ry farms . TABLE 3 . 2 F a rm P rodu ct i on by Farm C l as s ( 1 ) ( 1 980/ 81 season ) % of tot a l % o f tot a l % o f tot a l Wool Meat Lamb Produ ct i on P roduct i on ( 2 ) P rodu ct i on s . I . Hi gh Cou nt ry 2 . 7 1 . 8 0 . 89 s . I . Hi 1 1 C ou nt ry 6 . 7 6 . 0 4 . 8 N . I . Ha rd H i l l Cou nt ry 10 . 6 1 1 . 1 6 . 6 N . I . H i 1 1 Cou nt ry 26 . 6 26 . 3 1 9 . 1 N . I . I ntens i ve Fatt en i ng 1 4 . 7 1 7 . 2 18 . 1 s . I . B reedi n g /Fatten i n g 21 . 0 1 9 . 0 2 1 . 7 s . I . Mi xed C roppi n g and F atten i n g 4 . 0 4 . 6 7 . 5 Non Sheep F a rme rs ( 3 ) 13 . 7 14 . 0 2 1 . 3 NEW ZEALAND TOTAL 100% 100% 100% Sou rce : New Zea l a nd Meat and Wool Board ' s E conomi c Se rvi ce 1 980/81 season e st i mates Notes ( 1 ) F a rm P roduct i on fi gu res a re net ; adj u st ed for changes of stock . pu rchases and s a l e s . ( 2 ) I n c l udes l amb . mutton and ram ( 3 ) F a rms wh i ch do not meet samp l i n g cr i teri a . 28 3 . 3 I NTERDEPENDE NCE OF FARM CLASSES 29 A l though th e fa rm c l a s se s p resented i n Tab l e s 3 . 1 a nd 3 . 2 a re shown as s epa rate catego ri es , the re i s i n p ract i ce a s i gn i f i cant deg ree of i nt e rdependence i n the eco n omi es of these fa rm types . Low l a nd fa rms often re l y hea v i l y on h i l l cou nt ry fa rms to s u pp ly bot h s t o re l ambs fo r fi n i s h i n g and two-toot h ewes fo r fl ock rep l acement s . Due to such i nt e rdepende nc i es a fi nanc i a l l y att ract i ve schedu l e for export hogget cou l d be expect ed to have fl ow- o n effects th rou gh the s heep fa rmi ng sect o r . Cons equent l y , it cou l d be expected that a sche­ du l e fo r export hogget may reduce the supp l y of two -toot h ewes ava i l a b l e from h i l l cou nt ry fa rms as breed i n g rep l acements , wi th a s u bsequent i nc rease i n two-tooth ewe p ri ces gi ven the i r demand as rep l a cement s fo r l owl and fl ock s . If th i s was to happen i t wou l d i nc rease the op po rtu n i ty cost of export hogget p roduct i on on hi l l cou n t ry fa rms , and , u n l es s there was an i nc rease i n retu rns , reduce the p rof i t abi l i ty of l owl and fa rms by i nc reas i n g the cost of thei r f l ock rep l aceme nt s . A l t hough i t i s l i k e l y that such effect s cou l d occu r , an i nvest i gat i on of the l i k e l y magn i tu de of these effect s i s beyona the scope of th i s study . Such an i nves t i gat i on i s not , howe ve r , beyond the res pons i bi l i t i es of E conomi cs Sect i on staff . 3 . 4 HOGGET COMPOS I TI ON OF FLOCKS The New Zea l and Meat and Wool Board ' s Economi c S e rv i ce Sheep and B eef F a rm Su rvey shows that on the ' a l l c l a s ses a ve ra ge farm ' , hogget num­ bers va ry between 22% and 24% of open i n g s heep numbe rs ( Ta b l e 3 . 3 ) . Of the tot a l hoggets wi nte red , ewe hoggets mak e up between 85% and 8 7% a nd wet h e r hoggets between 1 3% a nd 1 5% . Grea t e r var i at i on i n the p ro­ port i on of tota l hoggets wi nte red , to tot a l s heep numbe rs , occu rs on i nd i vi dua l sheep fa rms as rep l acement rat es and overal l f l ock exp a n ­ s i on ( o r cont ract i on ) rates vary acco rdi n g to spec i fi c fa rm con­ d i t i ons . 30 F o r examp l e , du ri ng de ve l opment or i mp rovement phases when f l ock exp a n s i on occu rs , hog get retent i on l e ve l s a re h i g her when ewe hoggets a re u sed to p rovi de the ba s i s for ' b reedi ng up ' s toc k numbe rs . But on f a rms whe re stock i nc reases are sma l l , or stock numbe rs are stati c , i t i s un common fo r a l l ewe . hogget s wi nte red to ent e r the breed i n g f l ock a s two-toot h s . The norma l p ract i ce i s fo r some p roport i on of ewe l ambs rea red to be u sed to ma i nt a i n ewe f l ock numbe rs by i nt roduci n g them to the fl ock as two -toot h s ( 18 - 1 9 mont h s of age ) . Genera l l y l es s than 1 00% of ewe l ambs weaned a re req u i red to rep l ace mat u re ewes wh i ch have di ed , been cu l l ed or cast fo r age . The maj o r i ty of fa rme rs a re the refo re faced wi t h opt i ons rega rdi n g the p roport i on of ewe l amb s to wi nt e r as hoggets and the t i me of s a l e of those ewe hogget s s u rp l u s to rep l a cement requ i reme nt s . Cu r rent fa rm p ract i ce wh e re rep l a cement s a re b red from the ewe fl ock va ri es between wi nter i n g the mi n i mum numbe r of ewe hogget s , and se l l i n g the ma x i mum numbe r of ma i den two-toot h s i n the J a nu a ry /February two-toot h fai rs . The annu a l ewe ' wastage rate ' i n a stat i c ewe f l ock , and hen ce hogget rep l a ceme nt rate , i s i n the range of 30 to 34% of tot al ewes wi nte red . ( Meat and Wool Board ' s E conomi c Serv i ce , Al l C l a s ses Fa rm ) . Howeve r , Tab l e 3 . 3 s hows that the numbe r of ewe hogget s wi nt e red i s i n exces s of two-toot h ewe numb e rs by between 1 3% to 1 5% , i nd i cat i ng that i n a stat i c f l ock these ewe hoggets a re s u rp l u s to breed i ng req u i rement s a nd a re therefore ava i l a b l e for sa l e . Tab l e 3 . 3 a l so i ndi cates that a smal l numbe r ( s l i gh t l y i n excess of 3 . 0% ) of the tota l sheep wi nte red a re wether hogget s . Even when al l owance i s made fo r the i nt e rdependence of fa rmi n g sy st ems and the numbe r of South I s l and h i l l fa rms wh i ch ru n wet h ers for woo l p rodu ct i on , the comb i ned tot a l o f ewe and wethe r hogget s wi nte red i n New Zea l a nd h i l l cou nt ry s heep fa rms ( Ta b l e 3 . 3 ) con s t i tutes a pot ent i a l s u pp l y of hogget s avai l a b l e for sa l e on a n expo rt s chedu l e . 3 1 F l ock compos i t i on does howeve r va ry between fa rm c l a s ses . Th i s va ri at i on i n compos i t i on may i nf l u ence any pot ent i a l sup p l y of expo rt h oggets f rom a fa rm c l a s s . F l �c k compos i t i on by fa rm type for 1 980 ( Tab l e 3 . 4 } i ndi cates that h i l l cou nt ry fa rms , of bot h i s l a nds , wi n t e r the h i ghest prop o rt i on o f hog get s ( ewe a n d wet h e r} , and the refore cu r rent l y cons t i tut es the l a rgest pot ent i a l sou rce of hog get s for a n export ma rket . TABLE 3 . 3 Al l C l a s es Fa rm - F l ock St ru ct u re - W i nt er Numbe rs Season Ewe Hog gets 1 9 76/ 7 7 490 1 9 7 7 / 7 8 533 1 9 78/ 7 9 525 1 9 79/80 5 7 7 1 980/ 81 636 W et h e r Tot a l Two-Toot h M i xed Tot a l Hogget s Hogget s Ewes age Ewes Sheep 7 1 561 4 1 8 1373 2443 85 6 1 8 46 1 1399 2569 83 608 483 1407 2594 9 5 672 49 9 1490 27 54 1 1 1 747 536 1539 29 2 1 Sou rce : New Zea l a nd Meat and Wool Boa rd ' s Economi c Serv i ce-Supp l ement s to Annua l S heep and B eef Fa rm Su rveys . Al l C l a s ses Sheep and Beef fa rm . TABL E 3 . 4 F l oc k Compo s i t i on Expres sed i n Percentage Te rms by F a rm C l a s s as at 1 Ju ly 1 980 F a rm C l a s s s . I . Hi gh Count ry s . I . Hi l l C ou n t ry N . I . Ha rd H i l l C ou n t ry N . I . Hi 1 1 Count ry N . I . I ntens i ve F i n i s h i n g S . I . F i n i s h i n g B reedi n g S . I . I ntens i ve F i n i s h i n g S . I . Mi xed F i n i s h i ng ' AL L CLASS AVERAGE ' Ewes 47 . 0 68 . 5 6 7 . 5 69 . 5 74 . 0 72 . 6 7 6 . 7 76 . 5 7 1 . 0 Ewe Hog get s 1 2 . 0 23 . 1 25 . 4 24 . 3 18 . 2 22 . 7 20 . 0 1 7 . 7 2 1 . 8 Wet h e r Wethers Hog get s 8 . 7 3 1 . 1 3 . 5 3 . 3 4 . 4 1 . 2 3 . 8 0 . 9 6 . 0 0 . 3 2 . 7 0 . 6 1 . 3 0 . 7 4 . 4 0 . 2 3 . 8 2 . 0 Sou rce : New Zea l and Meat and Wool Board ' s Economi c Serv i ce S u p p l ement to S heep and Beef Fa rm S u rvey 1 980/ 81 Rams 1 . 2 1 . 6 1 . 5 1 . 5 1 . 5 1 . 4 1 . 3 1 . 2 1 . 4 32 . I 3 . 5 POTE NTIAL SU PPLY OF EXPORT HOGGET 33 The pot ent i a l supp ly of hogget s for an expo rt ma rket i s not ent i re l y c l ea r due t o the i nterdependence of New Zea l and s heep fa rmi n g sytems . Howeve r , i t i s ap pa rent t hat nat i on a l l y there a re es sent i a l l y t h ree f a rm ty pes wi th the pot ent i a l to supp ly si gn i f i c a nt numbe rs of ' s u rp l u s ' b reedi n g ewe hoggets to an export ma rket . These a re : Sout h I s l a nd H i l l Cou nt ry ( c l a s s 2 ) f a rms , North I s l a n d H a rd H i l l Cou nt ry ( c l a s s 3 ) f a rms and Nort h I s l a nd H i l l Cou nt ry ( c l as s 4 ) f a rms . I n a ddi t i on , South I s l a nd F i n i s h i ng-B reed i n g ( c l a s s 6 ) f a rms may al so h a ve l i mi ted pot ent i a l to s upp l y su rp l u s ewe hogget s . I n th i s context , the term ' s u rp l u s ' refers to the di ffe rence i n the number of open i n g ewe ho g gets on hand on J u l y 1 st and the numbe r of c l os i n g two-t oot hs on hand a yea r l at e r at J u n e 30t h . Apa rt from a normal death rate the di ffe rence i n the numbe r of open i n g and c l os i ng stock i nd i cat es the numbe r of ' s u rp l u s ' b reedi ng stock so l d annu a l l y . I t i s t h e refore poss i b l e to u s e fl ock compos i t i on numbe rs for each fa rm type , and the numbe rs of fa rms i n each type , to est i mate the numbe r of ' s u rp l u s ' b reed i ng ewe hoggets or two-toot h s so l d nat i ona l l y . These stock a re a potent i a l sou rce of su p p l y to an expo rt hogget ma rket . Toget he r , i t wou l d ap pea r that the fou r fa rm ty pes above have the potent i a l to s u pp ly between 1 . 5 mi l l i on to 2 . 0 mi l l i on ' s u rp l u s ' b reedi n g ewe hoggets to an export ma rket ( New Zea l and Meat and Woo l Boa rd ' s Economi c Serv i ce S u p p l ement s to Annu a l S h eep and Beef Farm S u rveys 1 9 76 / 7 7 to 1980/8 1 ) . Howe ve r , becau se of the i nt e rdependence of New Zea l and s heep fa rmi n g sy st ems , the maj or i ty of ewe hog get s ' s u rp l u s ' t o breed i ng req u i rements on hi l l cou nt ry fa rms are so l d to l owl a nd fa rms to fo rm t h e bas i s of l ow l and fl ock rep l acement po l i c i es . Conseq uent l y , the pot ent i a l ab i l i ty of exi st i n g fa rm produ ct i on systems to s upp ly an expo rt hogget ma rket , bas ed on a nat i ona l ' s u r p l u s ' o f ewe hogget rep l ac ement s , i s l i mi ted . Becau se of th i s s i tuat i on t h i s study i s ma i n l y conce rned wi th spec i f i c expo rt hog get p roduct i on strat eg i es i nv o l vi n g changes to p rodu ct i on po l i c i es to reta i n l ambs fo r ove r-wi nte ri n g and sa l e on an export schedu l e . 3 . 6 HOGGET SLAUGHTER PATTERNS 34 T radi t i o na l l y , most hogget s on fa rms a re ewe hogget s kept fo r breed i n g ewe rep l a cements ( refe r Tab l e 3 . 4 ) . T h e obv i ou s excepti on i s i n the Sou t h I s l a nd H i gh Cou nt ry c l a s s of fa rm where ewe and ewe hogget p roport i ons a re l owe r and mo re wethers a re fa rmed fo r woo l p rodu ct i on . A s i nd i cated p revi ou s l y , • s u rp l u s • ewe hoggets are often so l d to ot h e r f a rms fo r breed i ng pu rpos e s . Howeve r , i n t h e tot a l farmi ng sense , s ome ewe hog gets are su rp l u s to the i ndustry breed i n g req u i rement s . These hogget s are ma i n l y so l d fo r l oca l meat con s u mpt i on . S i mi l a r l y , wet h e r l ambs wh i ch a re ca r r i ed to the hogget stage a re e i the r so l d on t h e l oca l meat t rade ( butchers ma rket ) , or k i l l ed fo r on - fa rm cons umpt i on . Ve ry few hogget s of ei ther sex have been graded fo r an export t rade ( refer Tab l e s 3 . 5 and 3 . 6 ) . TABLE 3 . 5 Hogget S l au ghte r i ng ( Septembe r Yea r ) Loca l T rade Exeo rt graded Numbe rs % of tot a 1 ( 000 ) ( 000 ) Hogget K i l l 1 9 7 5 / 7 6 704 1 1 1 . 5 1 9 76/ 7 7 764 17 2 . 2 1 9 77/ 78 942 25 2 . 6 1 9 78/79 768 29 3 . 6 1 9 79/80 823 7 0 . 8 1980/81 809 19 2 . 3 1 981/82 858 49 5 . 4 Sou rce : M i n i stry - of Agr i cu l t u re and F i s h e r i es , Meat P roduc e rs Board Annua l Report s . Tot a 1 Hog get Ki 1 1 ( 000 ) 7 1 5 781 967 797 830 828 907 and New Zeal and Tab l e 3 . 5 s hows that as a p roport i on of the tot a l sheep carcases g raded fo r export , hog get s l au ghteri n g s a re ve ry smal l i ndeed , a v e ra g i ng at l es s than 0 . 08% of tot a l export s l au ghteri n g s fo r the f i ve seaso n s to 1981/82 ( refer Tab l e 3 . 6 ) . 35 TABLE 3 . 6 Sheep Ca rcases G raded fo r Expo rt Season Lamb Mutton Hog get Hogget as % of Tot a l s l aughter i ngs* 1 9 7 7 / 7 8 25 105 892 5 398 5 7 7 2 5 257 0 . 08 1 9 78/ 7 9 2 4 7 93 1 29 5 29 7 1 1 1 29 030 0 . 1 1 97 9/80 27 247 7 1 0 5 407 528 7 4 1 3 0 . 02 1980/ 81 3 1 1 6 2 227 7 0 5 7 3 1 5 19 333 0 . 05 1 981/82 31 079 454 6 546 404 49 336 0 . 1 3 Sou rce : New Zeal a nd Meat P roducers Boa rd Annua l R ep o rts * I n c l udes ram s l au ghteri ngs Howeve r , i t i s reasonab l e to ass ume that the fi gu res fo r hogget ca rca ses graded fo r expo rt ( Tab l e s 3 . 5 and 3 . 6 ) u nderes t i mate the act u a l numbe r of hog gets s l au ghtered . Th i s i s because hoggets g raded for export mu st be mout hed at the freez i n g works p r i o r to s l a ug hter to con f i rm the i r age . Mouth i n g req u i res p ri o r not i f i cat i on of a fa rme r 1 S i ntent i on to send hoggets fo r expo rt gradi n g . Mout h i ng i s not req u i red fo r ot h e r sheep . P r i or to the 1 980/ 81 s eason there was no fi n anci a l i ncent i ve to have hogget s graded , as bot h graded and u n graded hog gets rea l i sed the same s chedu l e pr i ce as mutton ( ewes ) . Consequent l y , i t i s lik e l y that fa rme rs wou l d have seen l i tt l e benef i t i n gradi n g hoggets and therefore wou l d not have req u ested hoggets to be mou t h ed . Und e r these cond i t i o n s unmouthed hoggets wou l d be c l a s s i f i ed as ewe ( mutton ca rcases ) . 36 Du r i ng the 1 9 8 1 / 82 meat export i ng season , two meat export i ng compan i es encou raged exp o rt hog get s l au ghteri n g s by offeri n g fa rme rs mo re att ract i ve pr i ces fo r hoggets than wou l d be rece i ved from a n exp o rt mut ton grade ( New Zea l and Meat P rodu c e rs Boa rd , 1 982 ) . Th i s encou ragement i s appa rent i n Tab l e 3 . 5 wh i ch shows a s l i ght i nc rease i n the p ropo rt i on of hog gets s l au ghte red for export i n the 1 9 8 1 / 82 season . Th i s i n c rease ap pears to con f i rm t h e pot ent i a l abi l i ty of exi st i n g fa rmi n g sys t ems to s upp ly a smal l numbe r of expo rt hoggets , gi ven the fi n a nc i a l i ncent i ve to do so . 3 . 7 MARKET POT E NT I AL FOR EXPORT HOGGET The expo rt of hog get s has been l i mi ted to on l y a few ma rket s becau s e o f t h e rest r i ct ed numbe rs avai l a b l e ( B ryant , 1982 ) , ( refe r t o Tab l e 3 . 5 ) . Of the numbe r wh i ch have bee n ava i l a b l e , the ma i n ma rket has been the U n i ted K i ngdom bot h fo r ca rcase sa l es ( over 90% of tot a l ca rca se export s ) a nd hi gher va l ued cut s , name l y l e gs , l o i ns and squa re-cut shou l de rs . The l ower va l ued cuts , such as fo re qua rt e rs , b reast and f l ap a re expo rt ed ma i n l y to Pac i fi c ma rkets ( B ry a nt , 1 982 ) . The ma i n p ros pect fo r hogget meat i s cons i de red to be the hot e l , res tau rant and i ns t i tut i on ( HR I ) sect o r of the U n i ted Ki ngdom ma rket , du r i ng the pe r i od Decembe r th rou gh to Ma rch ( B ryant , 1982 ) . I n orde r to reach th i s ma rket , i n wh i ch hogget i s seen as an a l te rnat i ve to h eav i e r l amb ca rcases wh en these are not ava i l a b l e , hoggets a re · req u i red to be s l au ghte red from Octobe r th rough to Febru a ry/Ma rch ( B ryant , 1 982 ) . It i s a l so ack n ow l edged that mu ch of the pot ent i a l ma rket dema nd fo r hogget i s dependent on t h e avai l abi l i ty of PX and PH ( 16 . 5 k g to 1 9 . 5 k g l i vewe i ght ) l ambs from p rev i ou s sea son s 1 p rodu c ­ t i on ( B ryant , 1 982 ) . ( NOTE : I n t h e new grad i n g system i nt rodu ced on 1 Oct obe r 1983 , l ambs i n th i s wei ght ran ge are now g raded PX . ) . I 37 The ty pe of hog get , wh i ch unde r the 1 982/83 g radi n g sy stem , i s most des i rab l e fo r a n export t rade i s one wh i ch wi l l p roduce an HL o r HX c a rcase ( u p to 2 2 . 0 kg ca rcas e wei ght ) w i th l i mi t ed fat cov e r of about 1 0mm of fat ove r the l oi n ( B ryant , 1 982 ) . Rese rvat i on s a re he l d rega rdi n g t h e HM g rade ( 22 . 5 k g to 26 k g ca rcase wei ght ) p ri ma ri l y becau se o f t h e greate r fat content o f heavi e r carcases ( B ryant , 1 982 ) . Hogget s u pp l i ed to the l oca l t rade ( butchers ma rket ) i s gen e ra l l y s i gn i f i ca nt l y heavi e r and ca r r i es a greater amount of ca rca s e fat than the ty pe of hog get wi th pot ent i a l for an export t rade ( B ryant , 1 982 ) . Th i s i nd i cates that to p roduce fo r an export ma rket , s pec i f i c export h og get p rodu ct i on s t rateg i es wou l d be requ i red . I n res ponse to a l i mi ted pot ent i a l ma rket i nc rease for exp o rt hogget , t he Meat P rodu c e rs Boa rd req uested meat export e rs to offe r a sepa rate s c hedu l e fo r hogget fo r the meat k i l l i ng season be g i n n i n g 1 Oct obe r 1 982 . F rom 1 Oct obe r 1 983 , c hanges to export hogget grad i ng came i nto effect . Under the rev i sed grad i n g sys tem, we i ght ran ges are e l i mi nated and hoggets are graded i nto two fat nes s grou p s . The new g rades a re : ( New Zea l and Meat P roduce rs Boa rd , 1 983 ( a ) ) . HX a l l wei ghts , wi th a GR measu rement of up to and i n c l ud i ng 9 mm H L a l l we i ghts , wi th a GR measu rement over 9 mm and up to a nd i nc l udi ng 1 7 mm . Ca rca ses exceedi n g a GR of 1 7 mm are graded as mutton . Under th i s new gradi ng system , HX g rade hogget s wi th l i ght fat content ( u p to 9mm GR ) a re l i k e l y to be mo re des i rab l e fo r export than the HL g rade hoggets wh i ch have a great e r fat content . 3 . 8 SHEEP MEAT CARCASE SU I TAB I L I TY FOR CONSUMER DEMANDS The meat and woo l sect o r of N ew Zea l and agr i cu l tu re cont r i buted 4 2 . 7% of New Zeal a nd 1 S tot a l expo rt rece i pt s fo r the yea r endi n g 30 Septembe r 1 981 . ( New Zea l a nd Meat P rodu cers Boa rd - Annu a l Report , 1 982 ) . Lamb i n pa rt i cu l a r , has for a l on g t i me bee n the maj o r cont r i but o r t o the tot a l meat i ndu st ry rece i pts , cont r i bu t i n g a n ave ra ge o f 43% o f tot a l meat expo rt rece i pt s fo r t h e peri od 1 9 7 5 to 1 98 1 ( C l ough and Oj a l a , 1 983 ) . 38 Des p i t e the s i gn i f i ca n ce of l amb to the New Zea l and economy and the l a rge numbe rs of l amb ca rca s e s exp o rted each yea r ( 3 1 mi l l i on i n the yea r endi ng 30 Septemb e r 1 982 ) , the su i t abi l i ty of l amb ca rcases to meet con s u me r dema nds has oft en bee n quest i oned ( B a rton , 1 9 72 ; Ma rs h a l l , 1 9 79 ; Ki rton , 1 9 7 9 ; F raz er , 1 982 ; Barton , 1 981 ; Kemp st e r , 1 982 ) . The ques t i on of ca rca s e su i tabi l i ty cent red i n i t i a l l y on ca rca s e fat ness but l atte r l y att ent i on has been gi ven to bot h ca rcase fat n e s s and compost i on , and ca rca s e wei ght . Cons ume r ave rs i o n to fat i n l amb ca rcases has conce rned the New Zeal a nd Meat P roducers Boa rd s i n ce i t s i ncept i on i n 1 922 ( F raze r , 1 98 1 a ) . F rom 1 Oct obe r 1 983 t h e Meat P rodu cers Boa rd imp l emented c hange s to l amb and mutton export grades des i gned to 1 i mp rove ma rket a cceptabi l i ty of New Zea l a nd l amb and mutton 1 by encou ragi n g l ean meat p rodu ct i on , recogn i s i ng 1 t he i nc rea s i n g des i re of consume rs i n · overs eas ma rket s fo r l eaner meat 1 ( New Zea l and Meat P rodu c e rs Boa rd , 1 983 b ) . The di scus s i on cent red a rou nd the need to i nc rease l amb ca rca s e wei ght i s mo re recent , but the re i s cu r rent l y a s i gn i f i cant body of thought wh i ch cons i de rs that the ca rca s e wei ght of some l ambs shou l d be i nc reased to br i n g about econom i es i n s l au ghte r i n g cost s , as we l l a s p rov i di n g g reate r opportu n i t i es c a rca s e p roces s i ng ( S i l cock and S h ep h e rd , 1 981 ; F raze r , 1 981 Kemp s te r , 1 982 ; Ba rton , 1 982 ; Cu l l wi c k , 1 983 ) . fo r b . , 3 . 9 CARCASE COMPO S I T I ON Ca rcase compos i t i on refe rs to the re l at i ve p roport i on of fat , l ea n , and bone i n a ( l amb ) ca rca s e . 3 9 T h e mos t i mport ant s i ng l e fact o r i nf l uenc i n g ca rcase compos i t i on i n cont i nu ou s l y grown l ambs of a gi ven breed and s ex , i s body wei ght ( K i rton , 1 983 a ) . Body wei ght can i n tu rn be i nf l uenced by such factors as age , bi rt h ra nk , wean i ng age , l e ve l of nut r i t i on , b reed , and di sease status ( Sc ot t et a l , 1 980 ) . As body wei ght and ca rca s e wei ght i nc reases ca rca s e fatness a l so i nc reases . Body wei ght and age tend on average to be re l ated , becau se as an i ma l s become ol de r they grow and i nc rease wei ght u nt i l they reach thei r mat u re s i z e ( K i rton , 1 983 a ) . Consequenty , o l de r an i mal s of gi ven sex , b reed and nu t r i t i o n a l statu s , wi l l be fatt e r than you n g a n i ma l s a nd s i mi l a r l y , bett e r fed l ambs wi l l be bi g ge r than poor ly fed l ambs of the same age , b reed and sex . Howeve r , i f such poo r ly fed l ambs are kept l onge r unt i l they reach the same wei ght as better fed l ambs , t hen at th i s s ame wei ght , bot h h i gh and l ow fed l amb s wi l l be of s i mi l a r ca rcase compos i t i on ( Ki rt o n , 1 983 a ) . B i rt h ran k wi l l a l so affe ct ca rca se compos i t i on , and l ambs born and rea red as twi ns wi l l be on ave rage 3 . 5 to 4 . 5 kg l i ghter at wean i n g a n d 1 . 0 t o 2 . 3 k g l i ghter at Oct o be r shea r i n g t h a n l ambs born and rea red as s i n g l es ( Scott et a l , 1 980 ) . The ef fect of sex on ca rca se compos i t i on i s we l l estab l i s hed ( Ratt ray et a l , 1 9 7 6 ; Pu rch a s , 1 9 78 ; Ki rton , 1 983 a ) . I n cont rast to ewe l ambs , ram l ambs grow fas ter to reach s l au ght e r wei ghts i n l e s s t i me , a re l eane r , a n d h a v e a l owe r dres s i n g pe rcentage . Wet h e rs a re i ntermed i at e between rams and ewes . Taste pane l stu di es have s hown t hat meat from ram l ambs i s equa l ly accepta b l e to consume rs as meat f rom ewe and weth e r l ambs ( K i rto n 1 9 7 1 , c i t ed i n Ratt ray et a l , 1 9 7 6 ) . 40 The ef fect of s i re breed on the growth and carcase compos i t i on of l amb i s a l so we l l k n own . ( C oop and C l a rk , 1 95 2 ; Ratt ray et al , 1 9 7 6 ; K i rton , 1 983 a ) . Rams of l ate mat u r i n g b reed s wi t h heavy matu re we i ghts , produce l a rge r , l eaner l ambs ( Ratt ray et a l , 1 9 76 ) . A n umber of management st rateg i es have been i dent i f i ed as pos s i b l e mea n s of affect i ng ca rcase compos i t i on . The mana gement strateg i es a re b r i ef ly rev i ewed i n the next sect i on ( 3 . 1 0 ) , begi n n i n g wi t h a d i s c u s s i on of fact o rs affect i n g l amb ca rcases , then i nt rodu c i n g hog get p roduct i on as an a l ternat i ve ap p roach to produci n g l a rge r , l eane r ca r­ cases fo r expo rt . 3 . 1 0 MANAGEME NT STRATEG I E S TO PRODUCE LEANER , LARGER CARCASE S M o s t o f t h e attent i on i n t h e " l ean l a rge " debate h a s cent red on t radi t i o na l product i o n sy stems and the fol l owi ng comment s re l ate to ma nageme nt ch ange s pos s i b l e unde r exi st i ng farmi n g systems . Ove r-fat nes s i n l ambs norma l ly occu rs i n two pe ri ods du ri ng the k i l l i ng season . Nat i ona l ly there i s a s pr i n g peak i n mi d-Oct obe r to Novembe r , and an autumn peak i n May/June ( Ki rt on , 1 980; 1981 ) . T he fo l l owi ng st rateg i es have been su g gested to reduce the nu mbe r of ove rfat l ambs p roduced on New Zea l and fa rms . 3 . 1 0 . 1 S l a ughter at L i ghter Wei ghts T h i s st rat egy uses the we l l est ab l i s h ed gen e ra l rel at i ons h i p between l amb l i vewe i ght and carcase fat ne s s . As wei ghts i nc rease so does the p roport i on of fat i n the ca rcase . Consequent l y , s l aught e ri ng at l i ghter wei ghts wi l l reduce fat ne s s i n l ambs k i l l ed ( K i rto n , 1 980; 1 981 ) . Howeve r , k i l l i ng at l i ghter wei ghts redu ces the vo l ume of meat p rodu ct i on and i s cont ra ry to the obj ect i ve of p roduci n g l a rge r c a rca ses . 41 3 . 1 0 . 2 Stock i ng R ate The i nf l uence of i nc reased stoc k i n g rate i s to i nc rease feed compet i t i on at c r i t i ca l t i mes of the yea r and the reby reduce l amb s l au ghte r wei ghts . The reduct i on i n i nd i v i du a l carcase wei ght i s ba l a nced by an i nc rease i n numbe rs s o l d , res u l t i n g i n i nc reased vo l ume of meat ( Ki rton , 1 980; 1 981 ) . Aga i n howeve r , the effect i s to p rodu ce i nd i vi dua l l y sma l l e r ca rcases . I n c reas i ng stock i ng rates may not be des i rab l e on ma ny fa rms and wh ere p ra ct i s ed may redu ce ma nagement fl ex i bi l i ty and i nc reas e ri sk . 3 . 1 0 . 3 Ram Lambs E nt i re ma l e ( ram ) l amb s grow fas ter than wet h e rs or ewes prov i ded adequate feed i s ava i l a b l e ( K i rton , 1 983 a ) . Ram l ambs a re l ea n e r t h a n wet hers , wh i ch i n t u rn are l ea n e r than ewes o f s i mi l a r wei ght ( Pu rchas , 1 9 78 ) . No n-castrat i on res u l t s i n ram ca rcases wh i ch a re heav i e r and l e a n e r than cor res pondi n g wet h e r or ewe ca rcases of a s i mi l a r age . Howeve r , on-farm ma na gement di ff i cu l t i es assoc i ated wi th c a r ryi ng ram l ambs , proces s i ng prob l ems associated wi th ram l ambs , and the l i k e l i hood of l a rge r l ambs be i n g graded as ram , i mposes l i mi t at i on s to adop t i o n of th i s st rat egy ( Pack a rd , 1 983 ) . 3 . 1 0 . 4 Breeds B reeds di ffe r i n the age and wei ght at wh i ch fat depos i t i on occu rs , so t h e use of speci a l i sed ' meat breed s ' can resu l t