Copyright is owned by the Author of the thesis. Permission is given for a copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research and private study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without the permission of the Author. Capital Market Implications of Resource Consent Information in New Zealand Listed Company Announcements A thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Finance at Massey University Palmerston North, New Zealand Carolyn Gail Wirth 2011 Copyright is owned by the Author of this thesis. Permission is given for a copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research and private study only. This thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without the permission of the Author. i Abstract This thesis investigates the capital market impact of resource consent information disclosed in New Zealand listed company announcements from 1991 to 2007. Since 1991, New Zealand environmental law has required individuals and businesses to obtain resource consent approval to use resources or undertake development activities that may have potentially adverse environmental impacts. Wide-spread criticisms of excessive delays, uncertainties and compliance costs purportedly caused by the consenting process have motivated this study of the economic implications to New Zealand listed companies of resource consent information. This study adds to the New Zealand capital market literature, employing an event study approach that allows for rigorous, empirical testing of small samples that are problematic in small economy research. The impact of environmental regulatory delay on capital market reactions to capital expenditure announcements is investigated. A measure of the expected time to gain resource consent (regulatory) approval is developed and used as an indicator of expected resource consent compliance costs. The event study results indicate positive valuation effects from project announcements when the expected time to gain resource consent approval is long. The key findings imply that by undertaking voluntary capital expenditures with high environmental compliance costs, listed companies can create strategic advantages. The results also suggest that if New Zealand legislators are able to reduce environmental regulatory delays associated with capital expenditures through further legislative changes, then the opportunity for firms to earn economic profits may be diminished. Investor access to timely, financial resource consent information is argued to be problematic, consequently further investigations consider the capital market impact of announcements to the stock exchange that disseminate information on the progress of resource consent applications. The event study results indicate that resource consent announcements are newsworthy and provide timely, valuable information to the market. Further evidence suggests that media dissemination plays an important role in the price-adjustment process for news of resource consent successes. Given the ii prominence of environmental compliance issues for firms, the results of this thesis underscore the importance of timely disclosures of firm environmental risk management strategies and processes through stock exchange and press releases. iii Acknowledgements First of all, I wish to thank my supervisors, Professor Martin Young and Dr Jing Chi. Your support, encouragement and constructive criticism has been truly invaluable and I appreciate the time commitment that you devoted to my supervision. I am also grateful to my work colleagues who have so generously shared their insights with me. Dr Chris Malone patiently helped me with programming problems, Associate Professor Ben Marshall assisted with research ideas and spreadsheet functions, and several more staff offered suggestions along the course of the study. I am also indebted to Cameron Rhodes and Eric Liu who assisted with software issues, Fong Mee Chin who helped with use of databases, and Professor Chris Moore who convinced me that I could actually undertake such an ambitious project. To family and friends who have stood by me throughout the PhD experience, thank you so much. You cannot know how much I value your support. iv Table of Contents ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................................... i  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................................... iii  TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................... iv  LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES ........................................................................................................... vii  TABLES   .................................................................................................................................................. vii  FIGURES   ..................................................................................................................................................viii  CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1  1.1  INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 1  1.2  BACKGROUND AND MOTIVATION ........................................................................................................ 1  1.3  RESEARCH AIMS ............................................................................................................................... 4  1.4  CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE RESEARCH ...................................................................................................... 6  1.5  ORGANISATION OF THE THESIS ............................................................................................................ 7  CHAPTER 2: INSTITUTIONAL BACKGROUND ......................................................................................... 9  2.1  INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 9  2.2  RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ACT 1991 .................................................................................................. 9  2.3  CRITICISMS OF THE RMA ................................................................................................................ 11  2.4  RMA AMENDMENTS ...................................................................................................................... 14  2.5  THE DISCLOSURE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESOURCE CONSENT INFORMATION ................................................. 17  2.6  CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................ 20  CHAPTER 3: LITERATURE REVIEW ...................................................................................................... 21  3.1  INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 21  3.2  THEORY AND EVIDENCE OF THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION ................................ 22  3.2.1  Environmental regulatory events ......................................................................................... 22  3.2.2  Economies of scale ............................................................................................................... 23  3.2.3  The allocation of property rights .......................................................................................... 24  3.2.4  Environmental performance ................................................................................................. 25  3.2.5  Technology innovation and investment ............................................................................... 26  3.2.6  Conclusion on the literature of the economic effects of environmental regulation ............. 30  3.3  THEORY AND EVIDENCE OF THE SHAREHOLDER WEALTH IMPLICATIONS OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES .................. 30  3.3.1  Strategic sources of competitive advantage ........................................................................ 31  3.3.2  Investment opportunities and free cash flow ....................................................................... 33  3.3.3  Firm structure and size ......................................................................................................... 34  3.3.4  Conclusion on the literature of the shareholder wealth implications of capital expenditures .   ............................................................................................................................................. 35  3.4  THEORY AND EVIDENCE OF SHORT‐HORIZON CAPITAL MARKET REACTIONS TO FIRM‐SPECIFIC ANNOUNCEMENTS ....     .................................................................................................................................................. 36  3.4.1  Efficient markets and rational expectations ......................................................................... 36  3.4.2  The information content of firm‐specific environmental disclosures ................................... 40  3.4.3  The influence of news characteristics ................................................................................... 41  v 3.4.4  The influence of news dissemination .................................................................................... 44  3.4.5  The influence of investors’ characteristics ............................................................................ 47  3.4.6  Conclusion on the literature of short‐horizon capital market reactions to firm‐specific  announcements ................................................................................................................... 49  3.5  CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................ 50  CHAPTER 4: HYPOTHESES AND DATA ................................................................................................ 52  4.1  INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 52  4.2  HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................................................. 52  4.3  RATIONALE FOR METHODOLOGIES EMPLOYED ...................................................................................... 59  4.4  DATA, DATA SOURCES AND SAMPLE SELECTION: PROJECT INITIATION ANNOUNCEMENTS .............................. 60  4.4.1  Project initiation announcement sample construction ......................................................... 60  4.4.2  Index construction and announcement returns data compilation ....................................... 64  4.4.3  Expected time to gain resource consent variable construction ............................................ 66  4.4.4  Control variable sources ....................................................................................................... 73  4.5  DATA, DATA SOURCES AND SAMPLE SELECTION: RESOURCE CONSENT ANNOUNCEMENTS .............................. 73  4.5.1  Resource consent announcement sample construction ....................................................... 73  4.5.2  Index construction, announcement returns, trading volume and market capitalisation data  compilation .......................................................................................................................... 77  4.5.3  Control variable sources ....................................................................................................... 79  4.5.4  Contemporaneous media coverage data compilation ......................................................... 79  4.6  CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................ 81  CHAPTER 5: METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................. 82  5.1  INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 82  5.2  MEASURING EXPECTED TIME TO GAIN CONSENT APPROVAL .................................................................... 82  5.3  PROJECT INITIATION ANNOUNCEMENT ABNORMAL RETURNS ................................................................... 84  5.3.1  Empirical distributions of announcement daily returns and market model abnormal returns   ............................................................................................................................................. 84  5.3.2  Non‐parametric tests ............................................................................................................ 87  5.3.3  Event study robustness tests ................................................................................................ 91  5.3.4  Cross‐sectional regression analysis of cumulative abnormal returns ................................... 92  5.4  THE INFORMATION CONTENT AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF RESOURCE CONSENT ANNOUNCEMENTS ................. 95  5.4.1  Trading volume ..................................................................................................................... 95  5.4.2  Empirical distributions of announcement daily returns and market model abnormal returns  ............................................................................................................................................. 97  5.5  THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF RESOURCE CONSENT ANNOUNCEMENTS .................................................. 98  5.5.1  Non‐parametric tests ............................................................................................................ 99  5.5.2  Event study robustness tests .............................................................................................. 102  5.5.3  Cross‐sectional regression analysis of absolute cumulative abnormal returns .................. 102  5.6  THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF RESOURCE CONSENT ANNOUNCEMENTS ....................................................... 106  5.6.1  Non‐parametric tests .......................................................................................................... 106  5.6.2  Event study robustness tests .............................................................................................. 107  5.6.3  Cross‐sectional regression analysis of cumulative abnormal returns ................................. 107  5.7  CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................. 110  CHAPTER 6: EMPIRICAL RESULTS ‐ THE MARKET REACTION TO PROJECT INITIATION ANNOUNCEMENTS  AND EXPECTED RESOURCE CONSENT COMPLIANCE COSTS .............................................................. 111  6.1  INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 111  6.2  EXPECTED TIME TO GAIN CONSENT APPROVAL .................................................................................... 111  vi 6.3  THE MARKET REACTION TO PROJECT INITIATION ANNOUNCEMENTS ........................................................ 114  6.3.1  Descriptive statistics and correlations ................................................................................ 114  6.3.2  Abnormal returns ............................................................................................................... 116  6.4  THE INFLUENCE OF EXPECTED RESOURCE CONSENT COMPLIANCE COSTS ON STOCK MARKET REACTIONS TO PROJECT  INITIATION ANNOUNCEMENTS ......................................................................................................... 118  6.5  CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................. 124  CHAPTER 7: EMPIRICAL RESULTS – THE MARKET REACTION TO RESOURCE CONSENT  ANNOUNCEMENTS ......................................................................................................................... 126  7.1  INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 126  7.2  THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF RESOURCE CONSENT ANNOUNCEMENTS ................................................ 126  7.2.1  Entire sample absolute abnormal returns .......................................................................... 126  7.2.2  Analysis of subsample absolute abnormal returns ............................................................. 128  7.3  THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF RESOURCE CONSENT ANNOUNCEMENTS ....................................................... 136  7.3.1  Analysis of subsample abnormal returns ........................................................................... 136  7.4  CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................. 146  CHAPTER 8: CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................... 148  8.1  INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 148  8.2  REVIEW OF RESEARCH AIMS, HYPOTHESES AND MAJOR FINDINGS ........................................................... 148  8.2.1  The role of environmental regulatory delay in explaining capital market reactions to capital  expenditure announcements ............................................................................................. 148  8.2.2  The capital market impact of resource consent announcements ....................................... 151  8.3  CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE THESIS ...................................................................................................... 154  8.4  LIMITATIONS OF THE THESIS ........................................................................................................... 156  8.5  FUTURE RESEARCH ....................................................................................................................... 158  APPENDICES ................................................................................................................................... 159  APPENDIX 1: LEGISLATION ENCOMPASSING THE RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ACT 1991 ........................................... 160  APPENDIX 2: PROJECT INITIATION SAMPLE ANNOUNCEMENTS ............................................................................ 161  APPENDIX 3: RESOURCE CONSENT SAMPLE ANNOUNCEMENTS ........................................................................... 163  APPENDIX 4: LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS OF RESOURCE CONSENT SAMPLE AND MARKET INDEX STOCKS ................................ 168  APPENDIX 5: PROJECT INITIATION ANNOUNCEMENT STUDY ROBUSTNESS TEST STATISTICS ........................................ 169  APPENDIX 6: PROJECT INITIATION STUDY ROBUSTNESS TEST RESULTS ................................................................... 171  APPENDIX 7: RESOURCE CONSENT STUDY ROBUSTNESS TEST RESULTS .................................................................. 176  REFERENCE LIST .............................................................................................................................. 186  vii List of Tables and Figures Tables Table 4.1  Project initiation sample analysis ........................................................................................................63  Table 4.2  Market index data outlier analysis.......................................................................................................66  Table 4.3  Sources of resource consent compliance costs ...................................................................................68  Table 4.4   Summary statistics and correlations ‐ Expected time to consent (ETC) components and historical  time to consent/abandon (TCA) ..........................................................................................................69  Table 4.5  Resource consent announcements sample analysis ............................................................................75  Table 4.6  Resource consent announcements sample: Average market capitalisation comparisons ..................78  Table 4.7  Media coverage of resource consent events contemporaneous with stock exchange announcement  by news classification ..........................................................................................................................81  Table 5.1  Project initiation announcement return data and distributions ..........................................................85  Table 5.2  Resource consent announcement return data and distributions ........................................................97  Table 6.1   Cross‐sectional regression analyses of LNTCA (t‐statistics) ...............................................................112  Table 6.2  Descriptive sample characteristics and correlations ..........................................................................115  Table 6.3  Abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns around project initiation announcements .....117  Table 6.4  Abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns around project initiation announcements by  expected time to consent ..................................................................................................................119  Table 6.5  Comparison of standardised abnormal returns and standardised cumulative abnormal returns  around project initiation announcements by expected time to consent ..........................................121  Table 6.6  Cross‐sectional regression analyses of project initiation announcement cumulative abnormal  returns, (t‐statistics) ..........................................................................................................................122  Table 7.1  Analysis of ranked absolute abnormal returns ..................................................................................127  Table 7.2  Analysis of ranked absolute abnormal returns, pre‐ and post‐reform, December 2002 ...................129  Table 7.3  Analysis of absolute abnormal returns by news classification ...........................................................131  Table 7.4  GLS cross‐sectional rank regression model of absolute abnormal returns, (t‐statistics) ...................133  Table 7.5  Analysis of ranked abnormal returns .................................................................................................137  Table 7.6  Analysis of event day +2 ranked abnormal returns excluding day +2 contaminating events ............138  Table 7.7  Comparison of pre‐ and post‐December 2002 standardised abnormal returns ................................139  Table 7.8  Comparison of successful, uncertain and unsuccessful standardised abnormal returns ..................139  Table 7.9  Analysis of abnormal returns by contemporaneous media coverage ...............................................141  Table 7.10  GLS cross‐sectional rank regression model of abnormal returns, (t‐statistics) ..................................143  Table 8.1  Hypotheses and conclusions for research aim 1 ................................................................................149  Table 8.2  Hypotheses and conclusions for research aim 2 ................................................................................152    Table A6.1  Analysis of abnormal returns – Market model using alternate market index ...................................171  Table A6.2  Analysis of market‐adjusted returns ..................................................................................................172  Table A6.3  Analysis of abnormal returns – Market model using alternate estimation period (‐170,‐10) ...........173  Table A6.4  Robustness tests for Models 3 and 4 cross‐sectional regression analyses of project initiation  announcement cumulative abnormal returns, (t‐statistics) ..............................................................174  Table A6.5  Robustness tests for Models 5 and 6 cross‐sectional regression analyses of project initiation  announcement cumulative abnormal returns, (t‐statistics) ..............................................................175  Table A7.1  Analysis of ranked absolute abnormal returns – Market model using alternate market index.........176  Table A7.2  Analysis of ranked absolute market‐adjusted returns .......................................................................177  viii Table A7.3  Analysis of absolute abnormal returns – Market model using alternate estimation period (‐170, ‐10)  ...........................................................................................................................................................177  Table A7.4  Analysis of ranked absolute abnormal returns pre‐ and post‐reform, December 2002, using alternate  market index ......................................................................................................................................178  Table A7.5  Analysis of ranked absolute abnormal returns pre‐ and post‐reform, August 2003 .........................178  Table A7.6  Analysis of absolute abnormal returns by news classification using alternate market index ............179  Table A7.7  Supplemental tests for Models 3 – 7 cross‐sectional rank regression analyses of resource consent  announcement absolute abnormal returns, (t‐statistics) ..................................................................180  Table A7.8  Analysis of ranked abnormal returns – Market model using alternate market index .......................181  Table A7.9  Analysis of ranked market‐adjusted returns ......................................................................................182  Table A7.10  Analysis of ranked abnormal returns without variance adjustment ..................................................183  Table A7.11  Comparison of successful, uncertain and unsuccessful standardised abnormal returns using alternate  market index ......................................................................................................................................183  Table A7.12  Analysis of abnormal returns by contemporaneous media coverage using alternate market index 184  Table A7.13  Supplemental tests for Model 5 cross‐sectional rank regression model of abnormal returns, (t‐ statistics) ............................................................................................................................................185    Figures Figure 4.1  Average market capitalisations – Resource consent announcements sample and market indices  ($million) ..............................................................................................................................................78  Figure 5.1  Daily average normalised volume around resource consent announcements ....................................96  Figure 6.1  Regression sample industry affiliations by short (ETCDUM=0) or long (ETCDUM=1) expected time to  consent (n=33) ...................................................................................................................................113  Figure 6.2  Full sample industry affiliations by short (ETCDUM=0) or long (ETCDUM=1) expected time to consent  (n=46) ................................................................................................................................................113  Figure 6.3  Full sample and ETC subsample cumulative abnormal returns around project initiation  announcements .................................................................................................................................120