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 i 
Innovative land-use planning for natural hazard 
risk reduction in New Zealand 
 
 
 
 
A thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements 
for the degree of  
 
 
 
Doctor of Philosophy  
in  
Resource and Environmental Planning  
 
 
 
at Massey University, Manawatu,  
New Zealand.  
 
 
 
 
Wendy Susan Anne Saunders  
 
2012 
ii 
 
 iii 
ABSTRACT 
New Zealand is susceptible to a number of natural hazards, yet some land-use 
planning decisions can lead to developments being located in at risk locations.  This 
can lead to an increase in risk rather than risk reduction, which does not promote the 
principles of sustainable development.  The aim of this research is to develop a risk-
based framework for innovative land-use planning that allows risks from natural 
hazards in New Zealand to be reduced, and  encourages better decision making for 
natural hazard risk reduction.  Research methods employed included Participatory 
Action Research, a literature review, use of case studies, qualitative content analysis, 
interviews, and workshops.  The conceptual foundation of this research integrates 
insights from innovation scholarship, natural hazards planning, participatory planning 
and risk governance.   
The case studies highlighted that an innovative risk governance approach is required to 
address the shortfalls of existing risk governance arrangements.  The state, market and 
civil society are key to an integrated risk governance approach; however risk creation, 
bearing and sharing may not be equal between these players, and economic 
imperatives often override social and environmental concerns.  Barriers to and 
opportunities for innovation for risk reduction included prevailing governance, 
leadership, legislation, research, second generation plans, cost, liability, skills/ 
experience/resources, awareness and understanding.   
There is a variety of guidance available to local government on various natural 
hazards.  But in order to appropriately manage these hazards the risk must first be 
quantified and qualified – for which there is limited guidance available.  This research 
bridges this gap by outlining an approach to risk governance that is framed around 
three key steps:  1) articulating and addressing consequences of events; 2) assessing 
the likelihood of these consequences; and 3) taking a risk-based approach to planning 
based on Steps 1 and 2.  The result is a planning framework that becomes more 
restrictive as risk increases.  With a focus on risk management principles and 
processes, the framework assists planners by providing policy and resource consent 
activity status criteria that enable hazard risks to be categorised via risk-based land-
use planning.  This provides an alternative to the current planning approach that can be 
used to assess risk implications within the existing planning system.   
Planning has a vital role to play in reducing risks from natural hazards, but a new 
approach is required to ensure that planning decisions do not result in an increase in 
iv 
risk to people and property.  Legislative changes are needed to ensure consistency, 
integrate legal provisions and provide effective monitoring of risk reduction policies and 
outcomes.  The risk-based framework presented provides a significantly new approach 
where consequences are the primary concern, rather than likelihood; and it allows for 
levels of risk to be defined. The result is a framework that can assist decision makers to 
reduce risks to people and property from natural hazards, and encourages sustainable 
development.  
 v 
PREFACE 
 
 
He aha te mea nui o te ao?  
He tangata! He tangata! He tangata! 
What is the most important thing in the world?  
It is people! It is people! It is people! 
Māori proverb 
 
 
 
 
 
Don’t build your house on the sandy land 
Don’t build it too near the shore 
Oh it might be kind of nice 
But you’ll have to do it twice 
And you’ll have to build your house once more 
You better build your house upon the rock 
And put a sure foundation on the solid spot 
And though the storms may come and go 
Peace of God you’ll know. 
Children’s Sunday School song 
 
vi 
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 
This thesis would not have been possible without the support of family, friends, GNS 
Science, work colleagues, and the Zonta/BRANZ PhD scholarship.  This scholarship 
was invaluable in allowing me to take time away from work to concentrate on aspects 
of the PhD.  This was especially critical during the last couple of months before 
submission.  While the following deserve particular mention (in no particular order), this 
is in no way an exhaustive list of all those who have provided support along the 
journey.   
Supervisors Professor Bruce Glavovic of the Massey University School of People, 
Environment and Planning Department and the Massey/GNS Science Joint Centre of 
Disaster Research; and Associate Professor David Johnston, from GNS Science and 
the Massey/GNS Science Joint Centre of Disaster Research.   
Thanks to all those colleagues who have been so supportive at GNS Science, way too 
many to mention here.  Particular thanks are required for the following (in no particular 
order): Chief Executive Officer Alex Malahoff, who was extremely supportive of the 
PhD journey, and was keen to ensure it happened.  Julia Becker – I can’t even start to 
explain how much support you have provided during this journey!  Thanks for being a 
good listener and sympathiser when the times got tough, I’m looking forward to the 
future challenges we’ll have together …. Kelvin Berryman, for always having time to 
stop and go through all my risk questions and framework; Terry Webb for providing 
feedback on the risk-based approach; Jim Cousins for many discussions on risk; 
Andrew King; Michele Daly; Hannah Brackley; William Power; Warwick Smith for 
explaining risk concepts in easy to understand language; Nicolas Pondard, for being a 
bouncing board for my risk ideas; Phil Glassy; Kim Wright; Maureen Coomer, Graham 
Leonard; Hamish Campbell for all those words of wisdom(?); Brendan Doody for those 
Endnote skills; Penny Murray for her great Word skills; Jane Forsyth for taking up the 
challenge to provide a critical review;  Daryl Barton; James Beban (on secondment  to 
GNS Science from Cuttriss Consultants) for ensuring the risk-based approach was 
practical for planning purposes.   
To the council staff from Waikato Regional Council, Thames-Coromandel District 
Council, Bay of Plenty Regional Council and associated territorial authorities, and 
Gisborne District Council who participated in the workshops which assisted in 
developing the risk-based approach.  In particular, I’d like to thank Peter Wishart from 
TCDC and Martin Butler from BOPRC for their continued support throughout the 
viii 
process; to all those who participated in the interviews – without your support, this 
results of this thesis would not of been possible; EQC for supporting the research 
project “New Zealand’s Next Top Model” – this support allowed the risk-based 
approach to be incorporated into a national guideline for integrating tsunami inundation 
modelling into land-use planning; and my planning mentor, Hamish Wesney from Boffa 
Miskell. 
My family, in particular my husband Gerry, for always believing in me; and my surprise 
bump, Campbell – thanks for letting me finish this before coming into this world! 
 ix 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
ABSTRACT  ............................................................................................................................ iii 
PREFACE  ............................................................................................................................. v 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................. vii 
LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... xv 
LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................... xvii 
ABBREVIATIONS ..................................................................................................................... xix 
CHAPTER 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 
1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 2 
2. The New Zealand hazardscape .......................................................................................... 3 
3. Rationale for study .............................................................................................................. 7 
4. Overarching aim and objectives ......................................................................................... 9 
5. Overview of research ........................................................................................................ 10 
6. Scope and limitations ........................................................................................................ 12 
7. Key concepts of research ................................................................................................. 14 
7.1 Sustainable development ..................................................................................... 14 
7.2 Risk governance .................................................................................................. 14 
7.3 Natural hazard...................................................................................................... 15 
7.4 Land-use planning ............................................................................................... 16 
7.5 Risk reduction and mitigation ............................................................................... 16 
7.6 Risk ...................................................................................................................... 17 
7.7 Innovation ............................................................................................................. 17 
8. Summary ........................................................................................................................... 18 
CHAPTER 2 Theoretical Context ......................................................................................... 19 
1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 20 
2. Sustainable development ................................................................................................. 20 
3. Risk governance ............................................................................................................... 22 
4. Natural hazards ................................................................................................................. 27 
5. Land-use planning ............................................................................................................ 31 
6. Risk ................................................................................................................................... 39 
6.1 Measuring life safety risk ..................................................................................... 42 
6.1.1 Individual risk........................................................................................... 43 
6.1.2 Societal risk ............................................................................................. 44 
7. Innovation ......................................................................................................................... 45 
x 
8. Summary ........................................................................................................................... 46 
CHAPTER 3 Research design .............................................................................................. 49 
1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 50 
2. Participatory action research (PAR) .................................................................................. 51 
2.1 Ethical procedures of approach ............................................................................ 56 
3. Review of literature ............................................................................................................ 56 
4. The case study – setting the context ................................................................................. 57 
4.1 Selection of case study area and subgroups ....................................................... 59 
5. Interviews .......................................................................................................................... 63 
5.1 Selection of participants for case study interviews ............................................... 63 
5.2 Semi-structured questions for case study interviews ........................................... 65 
5.3 Interview with Regional Planner, Bay of Plenty Regional Council ....................... 69 
6. Qualitative content analysis ............................................................................................... 71 
6.1 Computer aided analysis ...................................................................................... 73 
6.1.1 Limitations of approach ............................................................................ 74 
7. Workshops – development of risk-based approach .......................................................... 75 
7.1 Workshop 1........................................................................................................... 75 
7.2 Workshop 2........................................................................................................... 76 
8. Limitations and opportunities of workshops ...................................................................... 77 
9. Implications of research design ......................................................................................... 78 
10. Summary ........................................................................................................................... 78 
CHAPTER 4 The legislative context for natural hazard management in New 
Zealand .............................................................................................................. 79 
1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 80 
2. Regulatory context............................................................................................................. 81 
2.1 Interpretation of sustainable management and development .............................. 83 
2.1.1 Social, economic, environmental, and cultural well-being ....................... 84 
2.2 Definitions of natural hazards ............................................................................... 85 
2.3 Integrated roles and responsibilities ..................................................................... 86 
2.3.1 Canterbury Earthquake Response and Recovery Act ............................. 89 
2.4 New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement ............................................................... 90 
2.5 Risk reduction and the CDEMA ............................................................................ 91 
3. Reconciling avoidance, mitigation, and risk reduction under the RMA ............................. 91 
3.1 Kahikatea Estates, Coromandel ........................................................................... 93 
4. Planning timeframes for natural hazards .......................................................................... 97 
4.1 The influence of the Building Act 2004 on timeframes under the RMA.............. 100 
5. The role of the planner .................................................................................................... 101 
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6. Summary and conclusions .............................................................................................. 105 
CHAPTER 5 Innovation and land-use planning: A perspective from Thames-
Coromandel .................................................................................................... 107 
1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 108 
2. Types of innovation ......................................................................................................... 109 
2.1 Innovation in business ....................................................................................... 109 
2.2 Social and community innovation ...................................................................... 111 
2.3 Environmental and sustainability innovation ...................................................... 113 
2.4 Innovation and risk governance ......................................................................... 114 
3. Innovation and land-use planning ................................................................................... 116 
4. Case study findings: hazard awareness and innovation in Thames-Coromandel.......... 119 
4.1 Awareness of natural hazards in Thames-Coromandel .................................... 119 
4.2 Innovation in Thames-Coromandel .................................................................... 123 
4.2.1 Insurance ............................................................................................... 124 
4.2.2  Peninsula Project .................................................................................. 124 
4.2.3 Kahikatea Estate ................................................................................... 125 
4.2.4 Whitianga Waterways ........................................................................... 126 
4.2.5 Backstop walls....................................................................................... 127 
4.3 Opportunities and barriers for innovation in Thames-Coromandel .................... 128 
4.3.1 Governance ........................................................................................... 130 
4.3.2 Leadership ............................................................................................. 131 
4.3.3 Legislation ............................................................................................. 132 
4.3.4 Skills/expertise/resourcing .................................................................... 135 
4.3.5 Liability .................................................................................................. 136 
4.3.6 Cost ....................................................................................................... 137 
4.3.7 Awareness and understanding.............................................................. 138 
4.3.8 Second generation planning opportunities ............................................ 139 
4.3.9 Research ............................................................................................... 140 
5. Summary and conclusions .............................................................................................. 140 
CHAPTER 6 A risk-based framework for innovative land-use planning for natural 
hazard risk reduction .................................................................................... 145 
1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 146 
2. Risk governance and management ................................................................................ 147 
3. Planning approaches to risk ........................................................................................... 150 
3.1 Risk-based approach ......................................................................................... 150 
3.2 Precautionary approach ..................................................................................... 151 
3.3 Participatory approach ....................................................................................... 153 
3.4 Which approach is most appropriate? ............................................................... 154 
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4. An innovative risk-based approach to land-use planning for natural hazards ................ 157 
4.1 The process ........................................................................................................ 158 
4.2 Implementation of risk treatment - a risk-based approach ................................. 162 
4.2.1 Step 1:  Determine the consequences .................................................. 163 
4.2.1.1 Scale of impact .................................................................. 163 
4.2.1.2 Description of consequences ............................................ 164 
4.2.1.3 Severity of consequences ................................................. 166 
4.2.1.4 Ranking of consequences ................................................. 168 
4.2.2 Step 2:  Evaluate the likelihood of an event .......................................... 169 
4.2.3 Step 3:  Taking a risk-based approach to land-use planning ................ 170 
5. Implementation of approach – Bay of Plenty Regional Council ...................................... 174 
5.1 Why change was required .................................................................................. 175 
5.2 Implementation within the Proposed Regional Policy Statement ....................... 176 
5.3 Current status of the proposed RPS .................................................................. 180 
6. Limitations and opportunities of approach ...................................................................... 181 
7. Summary ......................................................................................................................... 183 
CHAPTER 7 Summary and conclusions ........................................................................... 185 
1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 186 
2. Summary of research findings ......................................................................................... 187 
2.1 Sustainable development ................................................................................... 187 
2.2 Legislative context for natural hazard management in New Zealand ................ 188 
2.3 Innovation and land-use planning for natural hazard risk reduction: a 
perspective from Thames-Coromandel .............................................................. 189 
2.4 A risk-based approach to natural hazards and land-use planning ..................... 191 
3. Limitations of research .................................................................................................... 192 
4. Opportunities for future research ..................................................................................... 193 
5. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................... 193 
BIBLIOGRAPHY ....................................................................................................................... 213 
 
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LIST OF APPENDICES 
Appendix 1 Massey University Human Ethics Committee approvals ..................... 197 
Appendix 2 Managing uncertainty in land-use planning ........................................ 203 
Appendix 3 Relevant provisions in the New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement .... 209 
 
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 xv 
LIST OF FIGURES 
Figure 1.1 The New Zealand geological setting (adapted from Glavovic, et al., 
2010, p680). ........................................................................................... 4 
Figure 2.1 Hierarchy of governance arrangements for natural hazard risk 
reduction. ............................................................................................. 23 
Figure 2.2 Elements of risk governance (left) and inclusive risk governance 
(right)  (Renn, 2008, p365, 367). .......................................................... 26 
Figure 2.3 A choice tree of adjustment (Burton, Kates & White, 1993, p58). ......... 28 
Figure 2.4 IAP2 Public Participation Spectrum (IAP2). .......................................... 37 
Figure 3.1 Multiple case study method (Yin, 2003, p50). ....................................... 58 
Figure 3.2 Subgroups within the case study framework ........................................ 60 
Figure 4.1 Legislative roles and responsibilities for hazard management in 
New Zealand (adapted from Saunders, Forsyth, Johnston, & 
Becker, 2007)....................................................................................... 87 
Figure 4.2 The role of the planner in New Zealand within a sustainable land-
use planning framework (i.e. natural, social and economic 
environments) .................................................................................... 102 
Figure 5.1 Role of the state, market and civil society in innovative risk 
governance and their dynamic relationships. ..................................... 116 
Figure 5.2 Key linkages between barriers and opportunities to innovative risk 
reduction within land-use planning. .................................................... 129 
Figure 6.1 Three recommended stages for effective governance of risk 
management (Standards Australia/New Zealand, 2009, pvi). ............. 148 
Figure 6.2 Relationship between increasing risk and resource consent status 
(adapted from Saunders & Glassey, 2007, p49). ................................ 151 
Figure 6.3 ALARP principle (DPMC, 2007; Health & Safety Executive, 2001; 
Standards Australia/New Zealand, 2004; Tonkin & Taylor, 2006)....... 152 
Figure 6.4 Risk governance model for land-use planning (based on ISO 3100 
(based on Renn, 2008; Standards Australia/New Zealand, 2009; 
Stern & Fineberg, 1996). .................................................................... 159 
Figure 6.5 Recovery groups under the CDEM framework (adapted from 
MCDEM, 2006, s25 p3). ..................................................................... 165 
Figure 6.6 Scale of impact, consequences, and severity of consequence ........... 166 
Figure 6.7 Framework for quantifying risk ........................................................... 171 
Figure 6.8 Quantification of risk .......................................................................... 171 
Figure 6.9 Levels of risk based on Figure 6.8...................................................... 171 
Figure 6.10 Colour-coded risk table ...................................................................... 172 
Figure 6.11 Qualitative levels of risk based on Figure 6.10 ................................... 172 
Figure 6.12 Risk-based approach to land-use planning for natural hazard risk 
reduction. ........................................................................................... 173 
Figure A2.1 Modellers’ and decision-makers’ view on uncertainty (van Asselt, 
2000, p91) .......................................................................................... 205 
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Figure A2.2 Example of uncertainty cones in active fault mapping, with colours 
depicting type of fault and level of uncertainties (Kerr, et al., 2003). ... 206 
Figure A2.3 The Tahunanui Slope Risk Area, commonly known as the 
Tahunanui Slump, is defined on the Planning Maps within the 
Nelson Resource Management Plan. ................................................. 207 
 
 xvii 
LIST OF TABLES 
Table 1.1 Examples of guidance provided for natural hazard management in 
New Zealand. ......................................................................................... 6 
Table 2.1 Risk-based international boundary levels of tolerability for health 
and safety ............................................................................................ 41 
Table 3.1 Three types of participatory action research (Cameron, 2007, 
p207) ................................................................................................... 52 
Table 3.2 Summary of PAR steps employed in this research ............................... 54 
Table 3.3 Representatives included in case study research ................................. 61 
Table 4.1 Purposes of key legislation for the management of natural hazards 
(emphasis added). ............................................................................... 82 
Table 4.2 Legislative definitions of natural hazards .............................................. 86 
Table 4.3 Summary of ways in which statutes contribute to the management 
of natural hazards ................................................................................ 88 
Table 4.4 Comparative land-use planning return periods for selected natural 
hazards in New Zealand ...................................................................... 99 
Table 5.1 Three categories of business innovation (Davila, et al., 2006) with 
eight types of innovation (based on Sternberg, et al., 2003) and 
examples of from land-use planning in New Zealand. ........................ 110 
Table 5.2 Specific natural hazards included in plans for Thames-Coromandel 
and responses as being a concern from participants (in 
percentages, n = 20) .......................................................................... 121 
Table 6.1 Choice of approaches for managing risk (based on Klinke and 
Renn (2002) unless specified). ........................................................... 155 
Table 6.2 Decision making issues to be considered of planning options 
(adapted from Standards New Zealand, 2004, p82) ........................... 156 
Table 6.3 Scale of impact definitions (Standards New Zealand, 2004, p54) ....... 164 
Table 6.4 Qualitative description of severity of consequences (adapted from 
Standards Australia/New Zealand, 2002) ........................................... 167 
Table 6.5 Likelihood scale (adapted from Standards New Zealand, 2004) ......... 170 
 
xviii 
 
 
 xix 
ABBREVIATIONS 
2GP Second generation plans 
AEP Annual exceedance probability 
ALARP As low as reasonably practicable 
AR Action research 
AS/NZS Australian/New Zealand Standard 
BOPRC Bay of Plenty Regional Council 
CAENZ Centre for Advanced Engineering New Zealand 
CDEM Civil Defence & Emergency Management 
CDEMA Civil Defence Emergency Management Act 2002 
EQC Earthquake Commission 
EW Environment Waikato 
IAP2 International Association of Public Participation 
IBHS Institute for Business and Home Safety 
ICNZ Insurance Council of New Zealand 
LIM Land information memorandum 
LGA Local Government Act 2002 
LGNZ Local Government New Zealand 
LTCCP Long term council community plan 
MCDEM Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management 
MfE Ministry for the Environment 
NZCPS New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement 2010 
xx 
ODESC Office of Domestic and External Security Group 
PAR Participatory action research 
RMA Resource Management Act 1991 
RPS Regional Policy Statement 
TCDC Thames-Coromandel District Council 
WRC Waikato Regional Council