Copyright is owned by the Author of the thesis. Permission is given for a copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research and private study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without the permission of the Author. An Exploration of Tourism, Seasonality, and Market Development in Northland, New Zealand. A 52.787 thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requ irements for the degree of Master of Business Studies in Management at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand. Jane Susan Commons 1999 Abstract This thesis examines the issue of seasonality of demand in Northland's tourism industry. It approaches this topic from both the demand and supply sides of the tourism industry. The thesis reviews the seasonality literature as it relates to tourism and highlights the paucity of recent research on this issue. The results are presented from three separate surveys of the stakeholders with a vested interest in this issue. A sample of 548 Auckland residents is examined and their potential contribution to Northland's tourism industry is evaluated in relation to seasonality issues. A sample of 23 of Northland's tourism-related businesses is also examined to gain an understanding of the severity of the region's seasonality problems and to show how affected businesses are coping . A sample of 534 visitors to Northland is also examined to assess their experiences of the region and its tourism-related businesses. Together these surveys provide a more holistic assessment of tourism and seasonality and the interrelationship between the factors which shape patterns of holiday travel in the region. The study identifies the groups of visitors most prone to seasonality and also identifies disparities between the behaviours of the sample groups. This may offer a number of options for lessening seasonality and its effects in the region. ii Acknowledgements I would like to thank several people who have made the completion of this thesis possible. Firstly my supervisor Stephen Page, for his seemingly boundless tourism knowledge and continual words of encouragement, both of which were equally valuable. Secondly, Brian Roberts and the team at Destination Northland for their much­ appreciated funding and continued assistance with the formulation , development and outcomes associated with this thesis. Many thanks to my fellow researcher Kim Burrows for her constant support and assistance during the production of this thesis . Lastly , I would also like to acknowledge the financial assistance provided by the Department of Management and international Business towards some of the research costs involved. iii Table of Contents List of Figures List of Maps List of Tables 1. Introduction 2. Literature Review 2.1 Definitions of seasonality 2.2 Seasonal ity is not unique to the tourism industry 2.3 Seasonality's importance to tourism 2.4 Potential problems associated with tourism seasonality 2.4.1 Problems experienced by tourism operators 2.4 .1.1 Cost-spreading 2.4.1.2 Facility use 2.4.1.3 Staffing 2.4.2 Problems for seasonal employees 2.4.3 Problems for local residents and environment 2.4.4 Problems for the tourist 2.5 Responses to seasonality's problems 2.5.1 The product mix 2.5.2 Market diversification 2.5.3 Pricing 2.5.4 Other 2.6 Positive aspects of seasonality 2.7 Summary 3. Review of the Northland Region 3.1 Geography and attractions 3.2 Society and industry 3.3 Tourism in New Zealand 3.4 Tourism in Northland ix xi xii 1 5 5 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 13 13 14 15 16 16 17 19 20 21 23 23 23 25 25 iv 4. 3.5 3.4.1 Special events Climate Survey of Auckland Residents 4.1 Methodology 4.1.1 Introduction 4.1.2 Research objectives 4.1 .3 Sample design 4.1.4 Research strategy and data collection 4.1.5 Data analys is 4.1 .6 Limitations 4.2 Demographics 4.2.1 Sex 4.2.2 Age 4.2.3 Income 4.2.4 Location 4.3 Travel profile of respondents 4.3.1 Recent travel 4.3.2 Factors affecting the likelihood of visiting an area of New Zealand 4.3.2.1 Kruskal-Wallis tests 4.3.2.2 Factor analysis 4.3.2.3 Cluster analysis and cross-tabulation 4.3.3 Influences on the timing of international and domestic travel 4.3.3.1 Kruskal-Wallis tests 4.3.3.2 Factor analysis 4.3.4 Timing of domestic travel 4.3.4.1 Kruskal-Wallis tests 4.3.4.2 Factor analysis 4.3.4.3 Cluster analysis 4.3.4.4 Season of domestic travel 4.4 Attracting visitors during the low season 4.4.1 Kruskal-Wallis tests 4.4.2 Factor analysis 4.4.3 Cluster analysis 4.5 Factors affecting the choice of domestic destination 28 30 33 33 33 33 33 34 34 34 35 35 35 35 38 40 40 40 43 48 48 51 51 55 56 56 61 61 63 63 64 65 67 67 v 5. 6. 4.6 4.5 .1 Kruskal-Wallis tests 4.5.2 Factor analysis Summary Survey of Auckland residents: Northland section 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Demographics 5.3 Reasons for travelling to Northland 5.3.1 Kruskal-Wallis tests 5.3.2 Factor analysis 5.4 Pattern and timing of Northland travel 5.4.1 Factor analysis 5.5 Sample's length of stay in Northland 5.5.1 Kruskal-Wallis tests 5.5.2 Length of stay and weather 5.6 Accommodation used while in Northland 5.6.1 Kruskal-Wallis tests 5.6.2 Factor analysis 5.7 Areas of Northland visited 5.7.1 Kruskal-Wallis tests 5.7.2 Factor analysis 5.8 Visitor Information Network 5.8.1 Kruskal-Wallis tests 5.9 Twin Coast Discovery Highway Awareness 5.9.1 Kruskal-Wallis tests 5.10 Competitiveness of Northland as a domestic destination 5.11 Tourist opinions of Northland 5.11 .1 Kruskal-Wallis tests 5.11 .2 Factor analysis 5.12 Summary Survey of Northland's Tourism-Related Businesses 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Methodology 6.2.1 Research objectives 6.2.2 Sample design 71 72 72 77 77 77 79 80 82 82 86 87 87 89 89 91 91 91 93 96 96 99 99 100 100 102 102 105 105 107 107 107 107 108 vi 6.2.3 Research strategy and data collection 108 6.2.4 Data analysis 108 6.2.5 Limitations 109 6.3 Profile of respondents 109 6.3.1 Location 109 6.3.2 Primary tourism-related activity 109 6.3.3 Ownership 109 6.3.4 Age of business 111 6.3.5 Turnover 111 6.3.6 Customer origin 111 6.4 Seasonality and respondents 113 6.4.1 Timing of respondent's seasonality 113 6.4.2 Severity 113 6.4.3 Problems 116 6.4.4 Capacity 116 6.4.5 Seasonal employment 116 6.5 Respondents' views on reducing seasonality 118 6.6 Respondents' use of advertising 120 6.7 Respondents' opinions of various ways of attracting visitors during the low season compared to the opinions of Auckland residents 120 6.8 Trends in seasonality in Northland 120 6.9 Respondents and the Visitor Information Network 120 6.10 Other comments 123 6.11 Summary 125 7. Northland Visitor Satisfaction Survey 126 7.1 Introduction 126 7.2 Methodology 126 7.2.1 Research strategy and data collection 126 7.2.2 Data analysis 126 7.2.3 Limitations 127 7.3 Demographics 127 7.3.1 Sex 127 7.3.2 Age 127 7.3.3 Origins 127 7.4 Location and type of participating businesses 129 vii 7.5 Awareness and usage of participating businesses 7.6 Important attributes of participating businesses 7.7 Impressions of participating businesses 7.8 Respondents' Northland travel patterns 7.9 Summary 8. Implications 8.1 Seasonality 8.2 Low season inducements 8.3 Promotion 8.4 Visitor Information Network 9. Conclusions References Appendix A: Auckland Residents Questionnaire Appendix 8: Northland Businesses Questionnaire Appendix C: Visitor Satisfaction Questionnaire 129 131 134 134 134 137 137 140 141 142 144 147 viii List of Figures Figure Page 1.1 : Structure of the study 3 2.1: Seasonality 6 2.2: A pattern of seasonal demand (artificial) 6 2.3: Seasonal cash flow management 11 2.4: Seasonal price banding for inclusive holidays 18 2.5: Seasonal demand 18 3.1: Mean air temperatures 1961 - 1998 31 3.2: Mean annual rainfall 31 4.1: Age distribution of respondents 36 4.2: Age of respondents according to sex 37 4.3: Distribution of income of respondents 37 4.4: Boxplots of income distribution by age group 37 4.5: Boxplots of the distribution of income by sex 39 4.7: Dendogram showing clusters present in the factors affecting the likelihood of Auckland residents visiting an area of New Zealand 50 4.8: Months during which respondents undertake domestic travel 57 4.9: Month travel was completed - 1989 58 4.10 Dendogram showing clusters present in the months during which Auckland residents undertake domestic travel 62 4.11: Season of the destination during which respondents usually visit 62 4.12: Dendogram showing clusters present in the factors likely to prompt Auckland residents to travel during the low season 68 4.13: Income distribution of age group 1 73 4.14: Income distribution of age group 6 75 5.1: Reasons given by respondents for travelling to Northland 78 5.2: Number of times respondents have visited Northland in the last year 84 5.3: Months of the year during which respondents travel to Northland 84 5.4: Total guest nights: Northland area - 1998 85 5.5: Number of nights respondents usually spend in Northland 88 5.6: Means of the usual number of nights spent in Northland by age 88 5.7: Has length of stay in Northland ever been affected by the weather? 88 5.8: Forms of accommodation usually used by respondents while in Northland 90 5.9: Areas of Northland visited by respondents 92 5.10: Number of visits by location visited 92 ix 5.11: Awareness and usage of the Visitor Information Centre Network 97 5.12: Awareness of Northland's Twin Coast Discovery Highway 101 6.1: Businesses surveyed by location 11 O 6.2: Businesses surveyed by primary tourism-related activity 110 6.3: Businesses surveyed by ownership 11 O 6.4: Respondents surveyed by main motivation for owning/operating the business 112 6.5: Years of operation of businesses surveyed 112 6.6 : Businesses surveyed by approximate annual turnover 112 6.7: Busiest months for Northland businesses 114 6.8: Quietest months for Northland businesses 114 6.9: Problems associated with seasonality as experienced by respondents 117 6.1 O: Main problem respondents experience in relation to their facility capacity 117 6.11: Respondent's preferred pattern of demand for their business 119 6.12: The methods respondents are using to attain an even demand pattern 119 6.13: Forms of advertising used by respondents 119 6.14 The history of seasonality in Northland's tourism based businesses 122 6.15: Membership of particular Visitor Information Centres 122 7 .1 : Age of respondents 128 7 .2: Origin of respondents 128 7.3: Origin of New Zealand respondents 130 7.4: Locations of participating businesses 130 7.5: Participating businesses by type 130 7.6: Why the services of the business were used 132 7.7: Number of times business had been used in the past 132 7.8: Impression of particular participating business 133 7.9: Likelihood of respondent recommending particular business to friends 135 7.10: Respondents' past visitation to Northland 135 7 .11: Plans for visiting Northland in the coming year 135 x List of Maps Map 3.1: The Northland region 5.1: Movement patterns of Northland Visitors derived from Tourist Visitor Survey, 1997-8 5.2: Movement patterns of New Zealand Northland visitors derived from tourist visitor survey 1997-8 and showing differential flow patterns 5.3: Northland's Visitor Information Centres Page 24 94 95 98 XI List of Tables Table Page 3.1 : Comparison of the origins of Northland's domestic tourism market 1988, with author's research 27 3.2: Location and Type of Events : 1996 (ranked by number of events) 27 3.3: Events by location and month 29 3.4: Average number of visitors per event per region , 1998 29 4.1: Basic demographics of respondents 36 4.2: Location of proportion of respondents 39 4.3: Simplified locations and their proportion of respondents 39 4.4: Destinations travelled to by Auckland residents in the last year 41 4.5: Factors affecting the likelihood of Auckland residents visiting an area of New Zealand (in order of attraction) 41 4.6: Crandall's list of motivations 42 4.7: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for the influence of various factors on the likelihood of Auckland residents visiting an area of New Zealand, by sex 45 4.8: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for the influence of various factors on the likelihood of Auckland residents visiting an area of New Zealand, by age 45 4.9: The conventional life-stage scenario 45 4.10: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for the factors affecting the likelihood of Auckland residents visiting an area of New Zealand, by income 47 4.11: Factors present in the factors affecting the likelihood of Auckland residents visiting an area of New Zealand 47 4.12: Determinants of the timing of domestic travel (in descending order of importance) 50 4.13: Determinants of the timing of overseas travel (in descending order of importance) 50 4.14: Kruskal-Wallis test p-values for the determinants of the timing of domestic travel by sex 53 4.15: Kruskal-Wallis test p-values for the determinants of the timing of domestic travel, by age 53 4.16: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for the determinants of the timing of overseas travel , by sex 53 4.17: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for the determinants of the timing of overseas travel, by age 53 4.18: Factors present in the factors affecting the timing of Auckland residents' domestic travel 57 4.19: Factors present in the factors affecting the timing of Auckland residents' xii international travel 57 4.20: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for the timing of domestic travel, by sex 60 4.21: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for the timing of domestic travel, by age 60 4.22: Factors present in the months during which Auckland residents undertake domestic travel 60 4.23: Effectiveness of various factors in prompting travel to a destination during its low season (in descending order of effectiveness) 62 4.24: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for the effectiveness of various factors in prompting travel to a destination during its low season, by sex 66 4.25: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for the effectiveness of various factors in prompting travel to a destination during its low season, by age 66 4.26: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for the effectiveness of various factors in prompting travel to a destination during its low season , by income 66 4.27: Factors present in the factors likely to prompt Auckland residents to travel during the low season 68 4.28: The five primary sources of consumer information 70 4.29: Factors affecting the choice of a domestic holiday destination (ranked by mean in order of influence) 70 4.30: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for factors affecting the choice of domestic holiday destination, by sex 70 4.31: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for factors affecting the choice of domestic holiday destination, by age 73 4.32: Factors present in the factors influencing the timing of domestic holidays 73 5.1: Basic demographics of respondents 78 5.2: Demographics from Page's Northland visitor survey 78 5.3: Domestic visitor expenditure by reason for visit 1989/90 81 5.4: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for reason for Northland travel , by sex 81 5.5: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for reason for Northland travel, by age 81 5.6: Factors present in the reasons for travelling to Northland 81 5.7: Factors present in the months respondents travel to Northland 85 5.8: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for the form of accommodation usually used in Northland by age 90 5.9: Factors present in the accommodation used while in Northland 90 5.10: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for areas of Northland visited, by age 97 5.11: Factors present in the areas visited while in Northland 97 5.12: Perceived competitiveness of Northland as a New Zealand destination xiii (ranked by mean in order of competitiveness) 101 5.13: Opinion of statements concerning Northland (in order of agreement) 101 5.14: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for opinions of Northland, by sex 101 5.15: Kruskal-Wallis test significant p-values for opinions of Northland, by age 104 5.16: Factors present in the opinions of Northland 104 6.1: Origin of customers by business type 114 6.2: Severity of seasonality problems by location of business (in order of severity) 115 6.3: Severity of seasonality problems by main activity of business (in order of severity) 115 6.4: Mean number of employees of businesses by season 117 6.5: Mean number of employees of businesses by season and business type 117 6.6: Respondents ' views of the effectiveness of various factors in attracting visitors to Northland in the low season (in order of effectiveness) 121 6. 7: Usefulness of Visitor Information Centres to respondents by business type (in order of perceived usefulness) 122 7.1: Importance of various attributes of participating businesses (ranked by mean in order of importance) 133 7.2: Rating of established attributes of particular business (ranked by mean response in order of approval) 133 xiv 1. Introduction This thesis examines the issue of seasonality in the tourism industry in Northland, New Zealand . Seasonality is traditionally conceptualised as a characteristic of demand and can have the greatest impact on tourism suppliers. This thesis aims to provide a timely illustration of tourism seasonality in an industry where "supply issues still remain poorly researched" (Page and Forer, 1998, p.365). This study has been designed to examine seasonality from both the demand and supply sides of the tourism equation to provide a more complete investigation of the issue. This study focuses on the New Zealand region of Northland to provide a useful setting for an assessment of the effects of seasonality on tourism operators . This region is particularly useful for this purpose for a number of reasons. Firstly, Northland has some of New Zealand's most pronounced seasonal patterns of demand. The region currently displays extreme differences in its visitation levels between its high season and low season. Secondly, despite these high levels of seasonality, there has been a distinct lack of research into seasonality - and indeed tourism in general - in Northland. Page and Farer (1998, p.297) note the lack of reliable data on visitors to Northland and the role this plays as "a major impediment to research and business development in the region" . This lack of research in the area allows for an interesting comparison of the assumptions made by suppliers concerning seasonality and the reality of the wants and needs of their customers. The objectives of this study were to: • Provide detailed information on the travel habits of Auckland residents including their preferred elements of a destination and the timing of their travel. • Determine which inducements would be most effective in attracting Auckland residents to a destination during its low season . • Determine existing perceptions of Northland held by Auckland residents. • Determine which groupings of Auckland residents were the most and the least seasonal in their domestic travel. • Determine which areas of Northland were the most and least affected by seasonality in the tourism industry. • Identify the effects seasonality is having on tourism-based businesses in Northland and the problems it is creating . • Identify the methods these businesses are currently using to combat these problems. • Identify the forms of promotion currently being used by Northland's tourism-based 1 businesses. • Profile visitors to the Northland region. • Determine the nature of the experiences of visitors to Northland. The multi-dimensional approach of this thesis is achieved through the use of three separate surveys which in turn assess: • The travel patterns and behaviours of Auckland residents • The effects of seasonality on Northland's tourism-based businesses and their methods of coping , and • The levels of satisfaction of visitors to Northland. These surveys combine to produce an image of tourism seasonality as seen from these three viewpoints in the setting of the Northland region. These viewpoints from both the demand and supply sides of the tourism industry aim to produce a rounded, integrated study (see Figure 1 ). What is not shown in Figure 1 is the management implications for tourism organisations, such as Destination Northland, which are charged with the promotion of the region, and are faced with addressing the dimensions of this problem. The first survey sampled 548 Auckland residents who are at least 18 years of age. This survey attempts to identify the determinants of the travel patterns and behaviours of Auckland residents as this population is Northland's single largest market. This includes identifying the underlying reasons for seasonality in tourism and which inducements would be most effective in prompting travel to a destination during its low­ season. It also examines Auckland residents' perceptions and attitudes to the Northland region as a travel destination and how their travel to the region is affected by seasonality. The second survey is based on 23 tourism-based businesses in Northland and attempts to show how these business are affected by seasonality of demand. It assesses how serious a problem like seasonality is for these businesses and what methods they are currently using to cope with it. It also examines other issues such as the businesses' employment levels according to the season, the various methods of promotion being currently used by the businesses, and the role of their membership of New Zealand's Visitor Information Network in assisting with their business. The third survey examines the perceptions of 534 customers of Northland's tourism-based businesses. This survey attempts to profile the region's visitors and determine how seasonality impacts on their experience of Northland. It addresses such issues as how visitors became aware of the business in which they were questioned, which elements of a business are important to them, and whether they would recommend the business 2 Figure 1.1: Structure of the study Demand • Auckland residents survey • Visitor satisfaction survey Northland Region Seasonality Supply • North land's tourism­ based businesses survey 3 to friends and relatives. The surveys of Auckland residents and Northland businesses were both postal while the survey of Northland visitors was left at participating businesses for customers to complete. Together these three surveys dovetail to provide a greater understanding of seasonality in the tourism industry and of tourism in Northland. This study examines the causes of tourism seasonality and the effect it can have on the region 's tourism industry stakeholders. Specific groupings within the samples are identified including the characteristics of the most and least seasonal travellers particular among Auckland residents and the nature of the Northland tourism­ related businesses which are most and least affected by seasonality. A detailed data analysis was carried out on the data gathered, particularly that from the survey of Auckland residents. Tests performed were: • Goodness of fit tests to gauge how well the sample represented the population. • Kruskal-Wallis tests to identify significant differences of opinion between groups in the sample. • Factor analyses to reduce large numbers of variables to a smaller group that still represent the original variables. • Cluster analyses to identify groups within the sample according to shared opinions. The samples for this study were generally of a good size although the survey of Northland businesses may have benefited from a larger sample size. The major limitation of this study is one common to most postal and self-completion surveys. This is that not all members of the selected sample will be equally likely to respond. This is because members of the sample that feel particularly strongly about the issue in question are more likely to want to express their opinions by responding. This can result in some elements of the sample being over-represented. These elements can include respondents of a particular sex, age, income level, race, or viewpoint. This is particularly true of surveys concerning divisive issues. The subject matter of this study lessened the potential for this problem but some effects of it may still have occurred. This thesis begins with a review of the existing literature concerning seasonality in the tourism industry. The existing literature tends to be quite descriptive in nature since it does not address the actual causes of seasonality or the determinants of the timing of a person's travel. Following this is a review of the Northland region which provides an understanding of the nature of the setting in which this study takes place. The region's tourism industry is discussed including its attractions, visitor markets, and the extent to which marketing focuses on seasonality issues. 4 2 Literature Review 2.1 Definitions of seasonality Seasonality is a feature of demand defined in a tourism context as "the peaks and valleys of demand for a destination and its facilities" (Starr, 1997, p.19) . These peaks and valleys can occur over a long time period , a short time period (often referred to as periodicity) , or relate to one-off events. In general terms , seasonality in tourism is defined as the fluctuations in demand for a destination and its facilities over the calendar year illustrated simply in Figure 2.1 (Allcock 1989; Cooper, Fletcher, Gilbert, and Wanhill 1993; Collier 1994; Anon. 1996). Figure 2.1 depicts the typical pattern of demand for an area affected by seasonality that has its high season over the months of August and September. It is probable then, that it is either a southern hemisphere area popular in winter or a northern hemisphere area popular in summer. The not uncommon rise in the level of demand during December may be due to travel associated with the Christmas period . The increases seen in March, April and November, may correspond to set public or school holiday periods. This is a simple model of an area with one major peak season. As Baron (1999, p.3) notes with reference to Israel , however, destinations can be "multi-seasonal". In Israel this is "due to the variety of religious , historic, leisure and other attractions in a relatively small area, the varied markets and the climatic conditions for sight-seeing throughout the year and enjoying winter sun and water sports" (Baron , 1999, p.3) . Cooper et al (1993) illustrate seasonality with the graph shown in Figure 2.2 and identify two forms of seasonality, additive and multiplicative. In the case of additive seasonality, it refers to the addition of demand at certain times of the year to the trend . For example, in August there may be an extra 100,000 visitors, and in February 75,000 fewer, both purely because of the time of year. In contrast , multiplicative seasonality refers to the proportional increase or decrease of the trend at certain times of the year. For example, August may be double the trend, whereas February is 40 per cent of the trend, both purely because of the time of year (Cooper et al , 1993, p.69). Cooper et al (1993, p.69) note that "most seasonal demand data in tourism are multiplicative". The main factor influencing the pattern of demand that creates seasonality is thought to be, the cycle of the seasons (Baron 1975, Patmore 1983, Collier 1994, Laws 1995). Weather plays a dominant and seemingly unalterable role in travel decisions: "weather [is] probably ... the critical factor in the choice of holiday time and/or destination" (Collier, 5 Figure 2.1: Seasonality Demand average J F M A Demand M J J Month Figure 2.2: A pattern of seasonal demand (artificial) en ..... Q) Ol c 400 ~ 300 rn Cll a. 0 rn 200 0 0 2- "C ~ 100 E Q) "C A S 0 N D Source: Cooper et al (1993, p.133). 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Note:------ shows upward trend Source: Cooper et al (1993, p.69). 6 1994, p.262). Patmore (1983, p. 70) agrees that "one of the most unyielding of constraints is that imposed by climate, most obviously where outdoor activities are concerned. The rhythms of the seasons affect both the hours of daylight available and the extent to which temperatures are conducive to participant comfort outdoors". As a result "a destination which is essentially attractive because of its beaches and hot summers is likely to have a highly seasonal demand. The same applies to demand for holidays at a ski resort which has snow for only part of the year" (Cooper et al, 1993, p.68). It is also accepted that the weather at the traveller's origin region can also be an important consideration. As Stynes and Pigozzi (1983, cited in Allcock, 1994, p.86) recognise, "seasonality may . .. appear where climate is constant relative to other locations. For example, Hawaii may exhibit 'seasonality' because of the weather in Michigan and other northern states rather than any fluctuations in its own climate" . There is also institutionalised seasonality which restricts travel through non-climatic factors such as "holidays and other events at specific times of the year, e.g. Christmas and the summer vacations of schools, universities and many places of work" (Baron, 1975, p.2). Regular special events held at a destination can also be influential (Cooper et al 1993, Bull 1995, Laws 1995) . Baron ( 1999) adds to this list the off-season closing of some facilities , and existing pricing and promotion policies. All of these factors can affect travel patterns to varying degrees. 2.2 Seasonality is not unique to the tourism industry Bull (1995, p.44) notes that "tourism has one of the most highly seasonal patterns of demand for any product, with less variation than demand for Christmas cards or air conditioners, but more than nearly all high-value individual purchases". It is recognised, of course, that seasonality is by no means unique to the tourism industry (Cooper et al 1993; Collier 1994; Bull 1995). Collier (1994, p.162) notes that many products such as "ice cream, coal and suntan lotion also experience seasonal demand". The tourism industry, however, may be better able than others to lessen its seasonality. 2.3 Seasonality's importance to tourism Seasonality is an important issue in tourism research for a number of reasons. Firstly, Baron (1975, p.2) notes that seasonality can affect both the supply and demand sides of the tourism equation: "tourist movements and the resultant activities of the carriers and many other enterprises involved are affected by the seasonality of demand 7 (holidays in the source countries) and of supply (attraction of destinations and tours)". Seasonality "has long been recognised as one of the most distinctive features of tourism, and ... after the movement of people on a temporary basis, may be the most typical characteristic of tourism on a global basis" (Butler, 1994, p.332). Seasonality exists throughout the tourism industry: "most statistica! series of arrivals and departures of tourists, bed-nights in accomrnodat!or.. employment in hotels and other branches of the tourism industry show considerable fluctuations from month to month due to seasonality and other predictable factors" (Baron. 1975, p.2). Another reason for seasonality's importance is that "past data suggests that the tourism indu::try has become increasingly seasonal over the years" (Soesiio and Mings, 1987, p. 2.7). Conlin (1997, p.235), however, points out that "seasonality is a problem in Bermuda, but its pattern has not changed significantly in recent years. It appears worse because all tourism has declined including the shoulder and off-season". Chazaud, Chaspoul. Molinari , Barre and Juyaux (1991) also disagree with Soesilo and Mings and argue that factors such as the growth of short stay tourism, changes in work schedu~es and the staggering of school holidays all suggest that the seasonal nature of tourisr.i is gradually disappearing. Baron (1999, p.2) has also seen that "week-end c>.r.d short h·:i!idays have increased" and Barre (1991) speaks of the disappearance of seasonality. Tour ism seasonality finds itself in an unusual position, it: "is at the same time one of [tl1e tourism industry's] most widely recognised and least well researched features" (Allcock, 1994, p.86). There has been relatively little detailed research on the p"".enomenon of seasona!ity and the means by which the tourism industry can address its effects. ?. l. Pc. ter.tial problems associated w ith tourism seasonality \/Vhils sorr.e benefits may be associated with seasonality, it Is generally accepted that "seasonality of demand .. . causes major problems for the tourist industry" (Cooper et al , 1993, p.69). It can cause many serious problems for all of the major stakeholders in tourism activity: tourism operators, tourism employees, local resident, and tourists themselves. Tourism's seasonality-related problems stem from the fact that tourism is a i:>ervice industry: "it is not possible merely to stockpile the product - a hotel room which is unsold on a particular night, an unsold seat on a flight, or an unsold theatre ticket all have an economic value of zero" (Cooper et al, 1993, p.69). 8 2.4.1 Problems experienced by tourism operators Cooper et al (1993, p.132) neatly summarise the economic difficulties caused by seasonality as they relate to any industry, not just to tourism: from an economics point of view, any business subject to seasonal fluctuations in demand for its output is faced with a dilemma. If it purchases sufficient resources to meet the peak load demand, it will have to carry spare productive capacity for the remainder of the year. If it gauges its resources according to the average level of demand, it will spend part of the year carrying spare capacity and will be unable to meet the peak load demand level. These difficulties in planning and operating efficiency are one of the driving elements in trying to obtain a more even pattern of demand. While some tourism operators are willing to accept these seasonal patterns and welcome the approach of their low season , many face significant problems due to seasonality. The problems which seasonality can create for the tourism operator mainly concern cost-spreading; facility use; and staffing . Generally the larger operators agree with Bonn, Furr and Uysal 's (1992 , p.109) description of tourism seasonality as "perhaps the most pervasive problem confronting ... managers of tourism businesses". There are methods of forecasting demand for a particular region or attraction such as those used by Baron (1975) . Cooper et al (1993) present the following formula for calculating demand D in a particular month: D=TxSxR where T is the trend value for that month , S is the seasonal index for that month, and R is a random or unpredictable element. The use of such a formula can produce useful demand forecasts but cannot aid in actually lessening the problem. While seasonality has a much greater effect on "coastal and winter sports resorts than capital city tourism" (Pearce, 1989, p.153) it is still ,a fortunate tourism operator that does not face at least some of the numerous problems associated with seasonality. However, Pearce (1989) may not adequately recognise the climatic effects of seasonality on urban destinations and few studies of cities have adequately discussed seasonality effects (Page 1995). In fact Page 's (1999) study of Auckland highlighted seasonal demand issues associated with accommodation usage but even this is a limited analysis of a complex issue in an urban context. 9 2.4.1.1 Cost-spreading Cost-spreading while experiencing seasonality is one of the major issues facing tourism operators (Cooper et al 1993; Collier, 1994). Anon. (1996, p.207) states that "leisure and tourism organisations need to be aware of the seasonal variations in their income, and plan how to counteract them". Figure 2.3 depicts a typical pattern of income for a leisure or tourism operator. This constant variation in income can create a certain instability within the operation . Developing a more even pattern of income would relieve the financial pressures on operators but this is not easy to develop. 2.4.1.2 Facility use The problems caused by seasonality with regard to the use of a tourism operation 's facilities are also very serious and may be a restricting factor to entering the industry. Baron (1999, p.1) recognises the magnitude of seasonal facility use, arguing "the economic benefits of tourism are reduced by building accommodation and facilities used only part-year". Craik (1991, p.62) notes that the tourism industry regards seasonal peaking as '" inefficient' because it ties up capital, requires a casual labour force , strains services (such as the transportation system , including traffic congestion and accidents) , and alienates residents". Allcock (1994, p.87) , citing Manning and Powers, agrees that "uneven distribution of use over time ... is one of the most pervasive problems in outdoor recreation and tourism, causing inefficient resource use, loss of profit potential , strain on social and ecological carrying capacities, and administrative scheduling difficulties". McEniff (1992) however, identifies the under­ utilisation of resources due to seasonality as a major difficulty for the tourism industry. Leasing out idle equipment during the low season is one way to deal with this problem. This is done very successfully by the United Kingdom's charter airline Air 2000 which in its early years made efficient use of its equipment by leasing one of its two 757 planes to British Airways during its low winter season (Laws, 1991 ). This practice has also been employed by the ferry industry, relocating vessels to sources of demand according to seasonal requirements in Europe. 2.4.1.3 Staffing Employment that has a seasonal basis can create many problems for tourism operators. It can be difficult to retain good staff and costly to keep training new intakes of employees, possibly on a yearly basis. Mill and Morrison (1985, p.231) note that "to ensure a balance between market demand and staff requirements, a business tends to adopt one of two strategies. Either employees are laid off over the low season, or 10 Figure 2.3: Seasonal cash flow management Income/costs short-term deposits Years bank loans 2 income costs Source: Bull (1995, p.232) . 11 additional employees are imported from other regions during the high season". In the former situation "workers employed ... for part of the year may have no opportunities for employment during the rest of the year" (Witt et al , 1991 , p.41 ). For some workers (such as students) this may either be the desired situation , or the transition does not cause any problems. Many, especially in poorer areas, are not so fortunate and this seasonal unemployment can become a major problem . In some areas those unemployed in the low season try to return to traditional employment which can create social stresses in their community . If returning to traditional work is not an option then societies may find their crime rates increasing as the seasonally unemployed try to survive over the low season . Importing employees from other areas to work over the high season can generate its own set of problems. It necessitates - either at the expense of the business involved, the local government, or both - the supplying of accommodation for these imported employees for the duration of their stay. If housing is built especially for them then this accommodation is then empty in the low season. A further problem with this situation is that when these employees return to their home region in the low season they take their wages with them. This means that the region that has supported them over the high season then loses this potential income right when it needs it the most, reflected in the high leakage of tourism income from rural areas and low tourism multipliers (Page and Getz, 1997). In some areas the local government will attempt to counteract the problems associated with seasonal unemployment. Van Harssel (1994, p.192) illustrates this point with the current situation in Turkey. There the government sees to it that "credit facilities are made available to enable otherwise unemployed workers to make handicrafts during the winter months and pay their debts when their goods are sold during the summer tourist season" . This unwanted seasonal unemployment can be seen as seasonality's most significant issue due to its consequences for managers, employees, the local society, and travelers. A major management problem due to seasonal employment is the "inherent waste in taking on staff ... on a temporary basis, investing in human resources (by training) and then losing that investment at the end of the main season" (Cooper et al, 1993, p.133). Related to this, employing workers on a seasonal basis "inhibits training and career progress" (Witt et al, 1991, p.41 ). This can make it difficult for managers to attract and retain high-calibre staff. Travelers can then be negatively affected when they have to deal with theses poorly trained and inexperienced staff. A bad experience at this level 12 endangers the traveler's entire impression of their holiday through the 'halo effect'. If this then turns into bad word of mouth it can feed back as a further employment-related problem for managers. 2.4.2 Problems for seasonal employees Seasonality affects many of the tourism industry's employees. Saleem (1992) recognises that a significant proportion of jobs in the tourism industry are seasonal in nature and that this means that seasonality is a serious problem in tourism employment. Workers engaged in seasonal tourism employment have various problems to deal with: "workers employed in the tourism industry for part of the year may have no opportunities for employment during the rest of the year, and this may cause resentment among employees. In addition, the seasonal nature of employment inhibits training and career progress" (Witt, Brooke and Buckley, 1991, p.41 ). The French government recognised the problems experienced by seasonal employees and in 1992 it was implementing the 'European Seasonal Employment Instability Benefit'. This benefit has been described as one way of addressing the issue of seasonal employment (Saleem 1992). Some workers (such as students and the retired), however, seek out seasonal employment for the benefits they obtain from it (suitable hours, long stretches of 'leave'). Indeed Ball (1988) notes that this seeking out of seasonal work is more common than usually recognised. Ball (1988) also recognises that even those workers that would prefer not to just have seasonal employment may benefit from simply experiencing a departure from a government benefit. 2.4.3 Problems for local residents and the local environment Local residents of areas that that are prone to seasonal demand patterns have their own set of problems to deal with. These include overcrowding, price rises for goods such as groceries, strained local services "such as the transportation system, including traffic congestion and accidents" (Craik, 1991, p.62), and at times a general sense of frustration that their community is being overrun by tourists. At these times it can be difficult for them to remember the positive outcomes of tourism for their community. If local residents are then hostile towards tourists for these reasons then the tourists' positive impressions of the area may be diminished and negative publicity may be the result. A further problem for local residents is the issue of crime. An area bustling with wealthy tourists is a perfect place for petty crime such as pick-pocketing to flourish. In 13 the low season, as discussed earlier, unemployed seasonal workers may have to turn to crime to survive. Seasonal demand patterns can also have consequences for an area's natural environment. The environment of a seasonal location that is inundated with visitors in its high season will be put under a great deal of stress over this period. This stress may appear as overuse, or forms of pollution such as litter and air pollution . A popular summer hiking or bush-walking area, for example, can suffer chronically high levels of trampling , associated soi l compaction , litter, and the air pollution produced by the vehicles used to get to the site. Damage occurring at high levels over a short period can be harder for an area to deal with than moderate damage over a longer period . While seasonality means that a damaged area has the low season to recuperate , this period may not prove long enough. If a tourist area is particularly prone to seasonality then it can also be at increased risk from "unpredictable and disruptive events including natural disasters ... and political violence such as coups and terrorism" (C raik, 1991 , p.63). It is much more important for an area that has its demand concentrated into only a few months of the year to have good conditions during that time than it is for a year-round attraction to have good conditions over any particular period . From a natural disaster viewpoint , this was demonstrated when Mt. Ruapehu erupted recently. The winter eruptions could not have come at a worse time for the many skiing-related operators in the area who tighten their belts over the summer months waiting for their profitable winter seasons . These businesses now had to cope with what were , in effect, the three consecutive low seasons of summer, ru ined winter, then summer again . The risk posed by political unrest was illustrated in equally dramatic fash ion in 1987 when Fiji "suffered a drop in tourist numbers of 30 to 50 percent following the two coups" (Craik, 1991, p.63) . This vu lnerability to unpredictable disruptions is another important reason for tourism operators to try to even out demand over the entire year. 2.4.4 Problems for the tourist The many problems seasonality can pose for the traveler can also translate into problems for the tourism operator. Many travellers are forced to travel in the destination's high season, Bull (1995, p.20) notes that "most recreational or holiday tourism is constrained by school vacations or place of work holiday entitlements, together with climatic conditions producing strong seasonal variations". Bull ( 1995, p.20) also states that "various pieces of research have indicated that VFR traffic and 14 luxury recreational tourism are perhaps the least sensitive to demand variation". This is at odds with Page and Farer (1998a, p.297) who note that this market is "variable and highly seasonal". They also view this market as being "extremely price sensitive and adversely affected by poor weather conditions" (Page and Forer, 1998a, p.297) . The main problem created for the tourist may be the overcrowding that can occur at popular destinations during the high season. The effects of this can be price rises for basic needs from transport and accommodation to groceries, hostility from the local residents under siege, and poor treatment from the aforementioned seasonal workers. Overcrowding can also result in a rise in an area 's crime rate, much of which may be directed towards the tourists . All of these factors can contribute to lowering the traveller's general enjoyment of their holiday. This lowering of enjoyment is another reason for tourism managers to want to find ways of lessening the effects of seasonality. If the traveller returns home dissatisfied the negative word-of-mouth generated can hurt the reputation of the destination and the operators involved. Significantly, wealthier travelers (which might be thought to be more demanding) are not as restricted in terms of the time period they choose to travel in. This is because they are able to afford measures that will lessen the negative aspects of their chosen destination in whichever season they are there. This can take the form of such things as air conditioning or heating to counteract adverse climatic conditions in the low season (Pearce 1989), or high quality accommodation to avoid overcrowding in the high season. 2.5 Responses to seasonality problems Current management responses to the problems of seasonality are based on lessening its impacts on three main areas: employment, facilities, and costs . Currently, according to the literature, managers are having mixed success. Witt et al. (1991, p.42) attribute this to the fact that "the prime importance attached to the weather by many holidaymakers means that only a certain amount of flexibility is possible". Bull (1995, p.44) also notes that "given that seasonality is largely institutionalised or directly affects major characteristics of the product (to do with climate), many bounds on demand are not variable by price or marketing inducements". Witt et al (1991, p.41) also state that "there are four principal strategies for managing seasonality: changing the product-mix, market diversification, differential pricing and encouragement/facilitation by the state of the staggering of holidays". The most commonly used of these strategies would appear to be changing the product-mix and the implementation of a differential pricing 15 scheme. 2.5.1 The product mix Changing the product-mix means introducing new attractions to existing destinations. These attractions can be features of the destination itself in a different season (such as the promotion of summer nature walks in areas that in winter are home to ski resorts), or the creation of new attractions or events (Witt et al (1991 ,p.41) give the example of "a summer beach resort [setting] out to attract the conference trade in the off-season"). Changing the product-mix can be used as described above to increase visitation in the low season, or it can be used to extend the high season just as the Queenstown fest ival extends that area 's high winter season. 2.5.2 Market diversification The concept of market diversification is separate from , yet related to , changing the product-mix. It is about attracting different segments of the market to an existing destination. Baron (1999, p.2) sees potential in this approach as "market segments have different seasonality and varied responses to price and other incentives". Baron (1999, p.2) further notes that "changes may occur [in a destination's seasonal ity] over the years , due to [unprompted] differential growth of market segments with different seasonality". Witt et al (1991 , p.42) describe the attempt at market diversification carried out on Florida as a tourism destination . "North Americans ... have been travelling to Florida for winter hol idays for some cons iderable time ... More recently , however, Florida has been marketed as a summer destination to UK residents , and the British have trave lled there in increasing numbers". Making a destination or attraction visible to market segments other than the traditional ones can greatly reduce the effects of seasonality. The new market segment to be targeted need not be based on the nationality of visitors ; demographic features can be used just as successfully. Cooper et al (1993, p.69) suggest carefully targetting marketing to reduce seasonality: "Marketing may be targeted at groups which have the time and resources to travel at any time of year, notably the elderly. They illustrate the point with the example of Michigan. This state is popular with younger visitors in the summer season and can be promoted to older vis itors in the autumn to view the changing colours of the area 's foliage. Cooper et al (1993, p.69) recognise the need to "create or shift demand to the shoulder or trough months, either through setting price differentials or through the introduction or enhancement of all-year facilities". 16 2.5.3 Pricing Differential pricing schemes are perhaps the most widely used way of attempting to even out annual visitation figures (Witt, Brooke and Buckley 1991 ; McEniff 1992; Cooper et al 1993; Anon. 1996). They can be used in two ways: to encourage travel in the low season, and to discourage travel in the high season. For example, a tourist resort can lower its prices in the low season to encourage travellers who would usually travel at other times of the year, and it can raise its prices in the high season as a form of de-marketing to try to discourage visitors and therefore to reduce overcrowding (Witt et al, 1991 ). Many travellers are by now familiar with the concept of seasonal price banding as illustrated in Figure 2.4. Figure 2.4 shows the proportion of each type of ticket available in each of the three time periods. It shows that a much greater proportion of peak season tickets are premium price tickets compared to the other two seasons. Similarly the bulk of the discount tickets are available in the shoulder seasons ("the period between high and low seasons" (Starr, 1997, p. 19) to try and lengthen the high season by encouraging travel at this time. Pricing structures such as this are usually associated with transport (particularly airline tickets) and accommodation rates. Anon. (1996, p.207) quotes a tour operator to show another important consideration of these price structures: "like most holiday companies, we sell most of our holidays during the summer. As we have to cover our expenses throughout the year, we offer low cost and discounted holidays during the quiet, winter months. These special offers - loss leaders - might not even make a profit, but they ensure that the market is still aware of our name". Seasonal demand affects price as illustrated in Figure 2.5. As with any standard situation of supply and demand, an increase in demand leads directly to an increase in price for, in this case, admission to an attraction. Low prices in the off season can be used to attract just as high prices in the high season can become a form of rationing (Bull, 1995). Used together, these strategies can help to even out demand. Cooper et al (1993) however, note that discounting over the low season has limitations. The operator must both cover their costs and be careful not to lower the desirability of the main season product. This latter point is important to operators using price as an encouragement. An exclusive hotel, for example, that charges several hundred dollars a night in normal trading cannot offer the same room for $50 a night in the low season. Its normal-trading clientele may feel the hotel has lost its exclusivity and be reluctant to use the hotel in the high season. This operator must find the balance between remaining 17 Figure 2.4: Seasonal price banding for inclusive holidays. Premium Price Standard Price Discount Price I Early Shoulder SEASON Peak Figure 2.5: Seasonal demand 02 01 (\) OJ '- fll P2 ..c t) c 0 '(ii ff) .E P1 -0 <{ V 'I Visitors V2 Late Shoulder 01 Source: Laws (1997, p.168). s 02 Source: Cooper et al (1993, p.215) . 18 exclusive for its normal-trading clientele and attracting low-season visitors. 2.5.4 Other There is one method of trying to break the fluctuating demand pattern of seasonality that is out of the direct control of operators. This is the altering of traditional set holiday periods. This state-initiated measure can take the form of "the staggering of school summer holidays over a longer period and the encouragement of the staggering of industrial holidays" (Witt, 1991 , p.42). McEniff (1992) recognises school and work holidays as the main determinants of seasonality and notes that their staggering is one of the key methods in creating a more even pattern of demand. Staggering these holidays can help to lessen the effects of seasonal demand by lengthening the high season or by increasing demand at times of the year that it would otherwise be relatively low. This can help to reduce overcrowding in the high season and increase visitation in the low or shoulder seasons thereby lessening the problems associated with seasonal demand. Some tourism operators find it easier to simply close down over the low season . While this is "attractive to many semi-retired and amateur owners who themselves [wish) to take lengthy holidays after the peak season" (Laws, 1995, p.18), it can jeopardise the long-term viability of an operation. A business that shuts down in the low season in this way is unlikely to "generate sufficient cash flow to invest in improvements to their facilities from season to season, and eventually they risk losing business to more adaptable destinations" (Laws, 1995, p.18). It would seem to be a better strategy to attempt to deal with seasonality's problems rather than just trying to ignore them in this way. It is also evident that "the costs and dangers, including marketing dangers of congestion at peaks, and the loss of profitability in the low ... period make the seasonal aspect one of the most important fields for common action by government and the private sector as well as by the individual operator" (Quest, 1990, p.110). Locations are finding their own ways of dealing with the effects of seasonality in addition to these four strategies above. Turkey and Morocco, for example, "have placed a high priority on tourism development through government-funded hotel facilities and massive advertising campaigns to stimulate 'second' season interest and occupancy" (van Harssel, 1994, p.192). This approach does not seem as promising as those already noted as it is neither attracting new market segments nor offering existing ones anything new. Many locations, however, do not have such levels of positive government intervention in the tourism industry. It is obviously hoped 19 levels of positive government intervention in the tourism industry. It is obviously hoped that these actions will in some way reduce the negative effects of seasonality but further understanding of the issue may be necessary. 2.6 Positive aspects of seasonality Despite the many negatives associated with seasonality, many benefits have also been identified. Seasonal demand can be seen as a benefit, if not a necessity, to a destination 's natural environment (Saleem 1992). An area that is heavily used in the peak season (a beach, a national park) must have time to recover from this impact. This view was first articulated by Hartmann (1986, cited in Allcock, 1994, p.88) where " ... dead seasons are the only chance for a social and ecological environment to recover fully. A dormant period for the host environment is simply a necessity in order to preserve its identity''. Murphy (1985, p.81 , cited in Butler, 1994, p.334) states that in some communities the end of the tourist season is seen as "the light at the end of the tunnel". Butler (1994, p.334) also cites Murphy's (1985) assertion that "individuals need release from stress and that some populations would not be capable or at least content to experience the stress of catering for tourists throughout the year'' . Jordan (1980, cited in Mathieson and Wall, 1982, p.142) believes that: "[residents] view the approaching [h igh] season with mixed feelings , and value the off season when only permanent residents are present" . Seasonal employment is an area in wh ich some positive points are recognised. Laws (1895, p.18) notes that "traditional British seaside guest houses used to close ... for several months in the winter. This seasonal feature of the business was attractive to many semi-·retired and amateur owners who themselves wished to take lengthy holidays after the peak season". Laws (1995, p.18) continues to identify a flaw in this scenarjo: "the long-term viability of seasonal destinations is jeopardised , because they are unlikely to generate sufficient cash flow to invest in improvements to the ir facil ities from season to season, and eventually they risk losing business to more adaptable destinations". Mourdoukoutas (1988, cited in Allcock, 1994, p.88) who, in his study of seasonal employment in the Greek Islands, found tha.t it is misleading to always view unemployment in the off-season as involuntary and seasonal workers as victims. He found thc;.t "some employees choose seasonal occupations because they pay more. Others do so because seasonal occupations suit their non-market activities during their off-peak season(s) , or they may lack any other occupational alternatives" . Allcock (1094, p.90) summarises this view very well: 20 It cannot be taken for granted, however, that the seasonal shape of tourism is necessarily and everywhere experienced as a problem to be tackled and if possible eliminated . It may be important to acknowledge that because of the characteristics of the local ecology, other sectors of the local economy, or patterns of social life, that a 'fallow' period in the year is not only welcome but indeed is vital for the capacity of the community to sustain other activities which it regards as essential. In such cases the cost to individual tourism enterprises which are compelled to work below their optimum capacity or level of profitability may be offset against wider measures of benefit, both economic and non-economic. As with so many things, the issue of seasonality is not a clear cut issue in tourism research, and much of the existing research is based on long held assumptions about the principal factors influencing seasonality. 2.7 Summary The fluctuating pattern of demand known as seasonality is currently presenting sigilificant problems for tourism although it is recognised that seasonality is not unique to this industry. The importance of the issue of seasonality to the tourism industry is such that it has been described as "perhaps the most pervasive problem confronting ... managers of tourism businesses" (Bonn et al, 1992, p.109). The current management responses are having some success but they will need to do more to lessen the impact of seasonal ity on vulnerable businesses. The four main groups of stakeholders affected by seasonality in the tourism industry are tourism managers, tourism employees, residents of seasonal destinations, and the travelers t11emselves. Seasonal demand patterns generate different problems for each of these groups. The main ways operators are dealing with the negative effects of seasonality are to change the product-mix, to attempt market diversification, and to develop differential pricing structures. The state can ease the situation by staggering school holiday periods and encouraging industry to do the same. These approaches are currently having limited success. It should be remembered though, that seasonality is not always a negative situation. There are important benefits to the destination's environment, workers, and society. Allcock (1994) reminds us that the benefits of seasonality experienced by these groups must be weighed against the problems it creates for tourism operators. While the negative effects of seasonality can generally be lessened, it seems unlikely that seasonality will ever be totally removed from the tourism industry (McEniff 1992). The 21 current literature pertaining to seasonality is generally quite weak and further research is needed to gain a better understanding of the issue. The factors that determine seasonality need to be studied as "the understanding of these factors is important for all responsible for tourism" (Baron, 1975, p.2). Further research into lessening the effects of seasonal tourism demand should be encouraged as it is possible that advances made here may be beneficial to other areas of business. 22 3 Review of the Northland Region 3.1 Geography and attractions The Northland region covers approximately 12,600 square kilometres and is located in the most northerly region of New Zealand (see Map 3.1) and contains some of the country's most beautiful scenery . It is "predominantly a rural region with a number of small towns and resort areas" (Page and Farer, 1998b, p.367) . Northland's population at the time of the 1996 New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings was 137, 052 (Statistics New Zealand , 1997, p.59). The region is steeped in much of the country's early history and features a great number of historic sites and attractions. The "earliest European settlers were whalers and sealers, then traders for flax, timber, kauri gum and food ; then missionaries ; and finally, farmers , businessmen and central government" (AA Guides, 1998, p.4) . Northland's largest town and port is Whangarei with a 1996 population of 47,400 (Statistics New Zealand , 1997, p.16). Other major settlements are Kerikeri , Dargaville, Kaikohe, Kaitaia and Paihia. To promote visitor activities, Northland has six Visitor Information Centres located at Kaitaia , Omapere, Dargaville, Whangarei , Kaikohe, and Paihia . The Bay of Islands, based around Paihia and Russell , is: "the longest established, most developed and best known tourism area in the region" (New Zealand Tourism Board (NZTB), 1996, p.24) . Near Paihia is the nationally important historic site of Waitang i, focus of annual Waitangi Day celebrations. Northland is promoted primarily as an outdoors destination that is "sparsely populated , being mainly rolling farmland fringed with spectacular bays and beaches" (AA Guides, 1998, p.4) . Emphasis is placed on the reg ion 's coastal attractions: "much of Northland's hundreds of miles of coastline remain unspoilt - an aquatic paradise for water sports, including windsurfing , sailing , kayaking , diving and some of the world 's finest big game fishing" (AA Guides, 1998, p.4 ). Other outdoor activities and historic attractions are also promoted: "there are many historical sites to visit and an extensive network of walking tracks. Horse treks, scenic and charter flights , 4-wheel drive trips, golf, and arts and crafts are among other visitor attractions" (AA Guides, 1998, p.4) . Focusing on the outdoors can have negative effects if potential visitors are unaware of alternative activities suitable for the low season. 3.2 Society and Industry Northland is generally regarded as one of New Zealand's economically poor regions 23 Map 3.1: The Northland region I 173° I 174° E I 20 u 20 40 60 80 100 km ~~L~~~~,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 300- rn contour _ _..-... _ __. ':-:;-q- 35°5 Whangarel• 0 . "If ~Airport Source: Moir, Cullen and Thompson (1986, p.2) . 24 and at the 1996 Census its unemployment rate was 10.8%, the second highest of the country's sixteen regions. The region's main industries, besides tourism, are "forestry, dairying, dry stock farming, sub-tropical horticulture, fishing , marine construction , oil refining, and cement manufacture" (Official Visitors Guide, 1998, p.6). Northland's "dairy processing has rationalised to three major processing sites at Maungaturoto, Dargaville and Kauri, plus a few boutique cheesemakers" (Official Visitors Guide, 1998, p.6). In the marine industry, Whangarei and the Bay of Islands "are renowned throughout the Pacific as attractive havens for yachts and other small craft to spruce up. In Whangarei. .. tuna boats, tugs and other small vessels refit , and modules for the ANZAC frigates are also being built" (Official Visitors Guide, 1998, p.6). 3.3 Tourism in New Zealand [ Tourism in New Zealand has been "expanding at a constant rate during the 1980s and 1990s, with 1,541, 136 international arrivals to the year ended June 1997 which generated $3.5 billion for the national economyj (Page, Farer and Lawton, 1998, p.13). It is estimated that the tourism industry "accounts for one in 12 jobs" (Middlebrook, 1999, p.1) and in the 1990s is estimated to be worth $10 billion a year to the New Zealand economy (Page and Hall 1999). In a country with a population of only "approximately 3.5 million people , tourism has become a conspicuous and influential force in the lives of many people" (Lawson, Williams, Young and Cassens, 1998, p.247). Unfortunately, information on New Zealand's domestic tourism market is not so readily available due to a lack of data. Tourism Auckland's chief executive, Lance Bickford recognises the lack of research in the industry and believes that New Zealand's tourism "industry struggles because of insufficient market intelligence" (Middlebrook, 1999, p.1 ). Mr Bickford states that "[the industry must] still battle with the quality and coverage of research monitors in New Zealand" (Middlebrook, 1999, p.1 ). It is an estimate then, that while international tourism contributed more than "$3. 7 billion to the year ended September" , domestic tourism contributes "at least $4.8 billion to the economy" (Middlebrook, 1999, p.1 ). It has been recognised that "tourism is one of the most efficient, external exchange earners when viewed on either a national or regional scale" (Northland United Council, 1983, p.35). 3.4 Tourism in Northland Northland is "promoted with a focus on sunshine and outdoor coastal activities" (NZTB, 25 1996, p.1 ). While this makes the region very popular in the summer, such a narrow scope of promotion can serve to worsen Northland's seasonality problems. Northland's accommodation sector is amongst the most seasonal in New Zealand (Page and Farer, 1998a, p.307). Page and Farer (1998a, p.309) found that the largest single category of attractions in Northland are those that are 'sea based' and they account for 13.6 % of all attractions. Northland does not account for a large share of New Zealand tourism. In 1988, tourism in Northland made up only approximately "6.5% of total New Zealand visits" (New Zealand Tourist and Publicity Department (NZTP), 1988, p. 7) and in 1997 the Northland region was recorded as containing 11 .6% of the nation's accommodation bed capacity (Page and Farer, 1998a). The tourism industry, however, is extremely important for the Northland region (Page and Hall 1999). International visitors account for approximately 20% of visitors to Northland (NZTB, 1996, p.1 ). Domestic tourism market is of major importance to the region and "approximately 80% of domestic visitors to Northland are sourced from Auckland . At least 95% of domestic visitors can be sourced to the top half of the North Island (NZTB, 1996, p.20) . Despite this there is little reliable data available on the domestic market, despite its importance to many areas of Northland (NZTB 1996, Page and Farer 1998). Page and Farer (1998a) go on to state that "in the Northland region , no major academic piece of tourism research has been published despite the region's proximity to one of the principal gateways to New Zealand - Auckland" (p.439). Although the NZTB stated that 80% of Northland 's domestic visitors originated in Auckland, Page and Farer (1998a) put that figure at 52%. The Visitor Satisfaction Survey in this study found that 46% of Northland's domestic visitors are sourced from Auckland. Whatever the exact figure , the importance of the Auckland region to Northland's tourism industry is clear (see Table 3.1 ). An interesting comparison can also be made between the main purpose for travelling to Northland in 1988 and 1999 (see Table 3.1 ). The reasons for travelling to Northland have remained relatively constant except for an increase in business travel. Lawson et al (1998) recently examined the differing attitudes towards tourism held by the residents of various New Zealand towns . They made many interesting discoveries concerning the attitudes of Whangarei residents compared to those held by other parts of the country. They found that Whangarei residents were more likely to disagree that tourism had inflated the cost of living within their community. Whangarei residents 26 Table 3.1: Comparison of the origins of Northland's domestic tourism market 1988, with author's 1999 research Region 1988 % 1999 % Auckland 52 Auckland 46 Northland 28 Northland 28 Bay of Plenty 6 Bay of Plenty 5 South Island 4 South Island 2 Taranaki 2 Taranaki 3 Wellington 1 Wellington 6 Purpose of visit 1988 % 1999 % Leisure 48 Holiday 50 VFR 31 VFR 25 Business 8 Business 12 Sport 3 Sport 5 Other 10 Special event 8 Locations visited 1988 % 1999 % Whangarei 19 Whangarei 13 Dargaville 4 Dargaville 9 Bay of Islands 19 Bay of Islands 12 Kerikeri 5 Kerikeri 12 Sources: Page et al (1998a, p.298), author's research Table 3.2: Location and Type of Events: 1996 (ranked by number of events) Region Sport Comm Art Garden Trade Food Other Total Canterbury 14 5 10 2 0 0 3 34 Auckland 17 1 3 1 1 0 2 25 Bay of Plenty 19 3 1 1 0 0 1 25 Ota go 14 2 2 1 2 1 3 25 Waikato 17 1 1 1 1 0 2 23 Wellington 9 3 2 1 1 5 2 23 Taranaki 10 1 3 1 0 0 1 16 Hawkes Bay 6 0 1 1 0 2 4 14 Southland 8 1 1 0 1 1 1 13 Northland 7 0 2 0 0 1 0 10 Manawatu- Wanganui 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 9 Nelson 2 0 2 1 0 3 0 8 Gisborne 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 4 Westland 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 4 Total 133 20 29 10 7 15 19 233 Source: adapted from Ryan, Smee, Murphy and Getz (1998, p.75). 27 were more likely to be concerned that more of the returns from foreign investment in tourism developments were not being retained in New Zealand . Whangarei residents were less certain that tourism has helped to create jobs in the area but were more likely to be happy with the pay and working conditions of the jobs it had created . Whangarei residents were the most likely to agree that "tourism had helped to raise the standards of service available from businesses" in the town (Lawson et al, 1998, p.252). Interestingly, Whangarei residents "indicated [a] slight disagreement that the current provisions for tourism were satisfactory" (Lawson et al, 1998, p.252). Whangarei residents were also more likely to agree that tourism was exploiting Maori. This result was not linked to ethnic background. Perhaps most significant were the views held by Whangarei residents in relation to the contribution of tourists to the area. It was found that Whangarei residents were slightly less likely to "notice tourists who are visiting their community" (Lawson et al , 1998, p.253) . It was then found that Whangarei residents were the most likely of any centre to avoid "places with lots of tourists" (Lawson et al, 1998, p.253) . Lawson et al (1998) go on to note that this finding accorded well "with sentiments expressed in the focus group interview conducted in the town . Some members of that group were quite definite that they preferred package tour .. . arrangements which maximised the revenue from tourism into their town while minimising the amount of contact and change to the routines of most residents" (Lawson et al, 1998, p.253) . It was also found that Whangarei residents were particularly willing to "see more tourists" (Lawson et al, 1998, p.254 ). The attitudes of the host population towards tourism should be monitored as they can play an important role in the development and success of tourism ventures. It also indicates that the region 's population recognise the dependence on tourism as an economic base. 3.4.1 Special events Special events can form a useful basis to assist in developing the profile and activities for an area's tourism industry. Special events can lengthen the peak season of a popular destination (Queenstown winter festival) or encourage tourism to an under­ visited region (Hokitika Wild Food Festival). Table 3.2 outlines New Zealand's special events by region in 1996. It can be seen that at this time Northland was basing its special events around sport. This may need to be reviewed given the subsequent changes to tourism in the region (see Table 3.1 ). There was a distinct lack of commercial, garden, and food-based events in Northland. Table 3.3 shows the seasonal distribution of the country's special events in New Zealand in 1998. It is 28 Table 3.3: Events by location and month. Location J F M A M J J A s 0 N D Total Auckland 2 1 1 1 2 0 1 0 1 1 3 5 18 Bay of Plenty 3 2 1 2 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 3 18 Canterbury 2 7 0 1 1 1 1 6 1 0 2 3 25 Gisborne 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 Hawkes Bay 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 8 Manawatu- 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 5 Wanganui Nelson 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 4 Northland 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 7 Ota go 4 2 1 4 1 1 0 2 1 3 5 0 24 Southland 4 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 11 Taranaki 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 2 1 12 Waikato 0 4 1 1 0 2 0 2 1 2 2 3 18 Wellington 1 7 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 2 16 Westland 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 Total 20 31 8 13 7 6 5 17 8 16 19 21 171 Source: Ryan et al (1998, p. 77). Table 3.4: Average number of visitors per event per region, 1998 Region visitors per event Auckland 47,348 Wellington 45 ,843 Canterbury 41 ,964 Taranaki 8,062 Waikato 7,070 Ota go 5,088 Gisborne 4,090 Nelson 4 ,000 Northland 3,450 Southland 1,926 Westland 1,644 Hawkes Bay 1,386 Manawatu-Wanganui 1, 177 Bay of Plenty 1,084 Source: Ryan et al (1998, p.77) . 29 notable that the very months when Northland most needs visitors (June and July) are those when there were no special events. Table 3.4 shows the average visitation levels of special events by region in 1998. Given that Northland's greatest source of visitors is Auckland and that as such, 28% of New Zealand's population lives within two or three hours drive of Northland, the attendance figures in Table 3.4 should be able to be significantly increased. Northland's schedule of special events has developed since this survey was made and while sporting events (particularly sailing and fishing) still feature prominently, the schedule now includes a greater variety of events. These events cater to a wide range of interests from the Russell Oyster Festival to the Far North Garden Safari to the Dargaville River Festival. One of the respondents to the survey of Northland's tourism-based businesses stated that some of Northland 's tourism-based businesses were uniting to organise further regular special events to attract visitors throughout the year. Northland's promotion of its special events is not as effective as it could be due to a lack of funding available for marketing. Promotion is, however, something that special events cannot afford to be without . 3.5 Climate It can be easily assumed that seasonality in Northland is driven by the region's weather conditions. This section examines Northland's weather conditions to determine whether that assumption is justified. The comparison of the mean air temperatures for regions of New Zealand seen in Figure 3.1 shows that in the depths of winter Northland's mean air temperature is up to 6.9 degrees higher than other parts of the country. While the region's winter temperatures are well below its summer levels, Northland may still be an attractive destination, in terms of temperature, to South Islanders. Unfortunately South Islanders currently account for only a tiny proportion of Northland's visitors. From the point of view of Northland's tourism industry, a more important element of the region's weather may be rainfall. When compared to other regions of New Zealand (see Figure 3.2) Northland can be seen to have quite a high annual rainfall. It would appear that this, and not temperature, may be the major deterrent to visitors during winter. This again shows the importance of all-weather attractions over the low season. 30 Figure 3.1: Mean air temperatures 1961 - 1998 co J F M A M J J Figure 3.2: Mean annual rainfall A S 0 N D --Kaitaia --Kerikeri Dargaville Auckland --Hamilton -Taupo -Wellington --Nelson - Christchurch lnvercargill Source: Metservice (1999) Climate Summaries. Source: Metservice (1999) Climate Summaries. 31 Northland's weather over the low season does not prohibit enjoyable travel to the region . It does, however, prohibit the kind of outdoors activities and experiences that the region is currently promoting . A shift in the region 's promotional themes towards less summer-reliant activities may see an increase in the number of visitors to Northland that are interested in other aspects of the region . This would help to reduce the region 's seasonality as only the most water and sun-dependent activities could not be operated over the low winter season. 32 4 Survey of Auckland Residents 4.1 Methodology 4.1.1 Introduction This section examines the results of a survey of 548 Auckland residents. Chapter 4 presents the data from the first section of the survey which examined the general travel behaviors of the sample. Chapter 5 presents the data from the second section of the survey which examined Auckland residents ' travel behaviours with specific reference to the Northland region . 4.1.2 Research objectives • To provide information on the factors determining the timing of Auckland residents ' travel. • To determine whether these factors are significantly different for various market segments . • To determine whether these factors are significantly different for international and domestic travel. • To determine what measures would encourage Auckland residents to travel to a destination during its low season. • To determine whether these measures are significantly different for various market segments. • To generate information on Auckland residents ' travel habits regarding Northland. • To generate information on seasonality's importance to Auckland residents using Northland as a specific destination. 4.1.3 Sample design By far the biggest origin region of domestic visitors to Northland is Auckland. As such, the sample for this research was drawn from the nine electoral roles of the Auckland region . Although the telephone book might have provided more up to date addresses, this source would not have represented people without telephones or with unlisted telephone numbers. Using the electoral roles also ensured that respondents were at least 18 years old . The sample for this research was systematically, randomly selected . 33 4.1.4 Research strategy and data collection The research was designed to be of a descriptive, deductive nature that would generate predominantly quantitative data. The research was conducted through the use of a closed-question postal questionnaire. A postal questionnaire was chosen for this research as this is a relatively fast and cost-effective way of reaching a large, geographically diverse sample. Postal questionnaires can remove any bias that may exist when interviews are conducted but also reduce the ability of the researcher to clarify any questions for the respondent should confusion arise. It was possible to use closed questions in this questionnaire as the parameters of the possible responses were already known. Likert scales featured dominantly in the questionnaire as they are a very useful way of measuring the attitudes of respondents. In December 1998, the survey was posted to the 1498 identified recipients together with a covering letter and reply paid envelope (see Appendix 1). Of these initial 1498 questionnaires, 516 were returned . A further 85 were then posted out to replace some of those that were returned due to the named recipient no longer living at the address. Of these, 32 were usably returned. This gives a total response rate of 34.62% which is an acceptable result for a postal survey. 4.1.5 Data analysis The data from the survey was analysed quantitatively using the Minitab 12 for Windows statistical programme. Graphs were generated in both Minitab and Microsoft Excel. 4.1.6 Limitations As with any postal survey, the data gathered will not be absolutely representative of the population. This is because not all members of the sample are equally inclined to respond to surveys. In some cases responses obtained are generally from people who feel strongly about the subject matter in some way which means that the data gathered can give a false impression by tending towards extremes of opinion . This factor is reduced in this research as seasonality in tourism is to most people not a controversial subject likely to divide the population . Much of the population are likely to have given little thought to their tourism behaviours and are unlikely to have formed strong opinions on this subject. A further limitation of this research is that the survey features questions which may require respondents to rely on their memory in answering. This may result in inaccurate responses that are based on what the respondent believes their behaviours have been and not what they actually are. 34 4.2 Demographics The basic demographics profile of respondents was examined, focusing on a number of key variables (eg . sex, age, income, and place of residence) and the responses are shown in Table 4.1. 4.2.1 Sex The proportion of females in the sample is significantly higher than that of the population . This may have some effect on the results given where the responses are not specified by sex. The proportion of females in the sample was 59% while the proportion of females in the Auckland population as recorded in the 1996 New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings was 51%. Males made up 41% of the sample while in the 1996 Census they accounted for 49% of the Auckland population (Statistics New Zealand , 1997, p.21) . 4.2.2 Age The age distribution of respondents followed a relatively normal distribution (see Figure 4.1 ). This is not significantly different from that of the Auckland population. The mean age rating was 3.5971 , just over the dividing line between groups 3 and 4. This can be approximated to an age of 46. With in each sex the distribution of the age groups is relatively even and is not significantly different according to sex (see Figure 4.2). 4.2.3 Income The distribution of income among the sample had a more irregular pattern (see Figure 4.3). The incomes tended to gather around the mid- to lower-end of the scale except for quite a strong showing in the highest category. The median income grouping of the sample was group 3 which included incomes from $33,001 to $40,000. This is significantly higher than the median Auckland income of $19,053 (Statistics New Zealand , 1997, p.136) . The distribution of income by age group follows a very normal distribution (see Figure 4.4). The income levels show an expected pattern of rising and then falling as age increases. Age group one (those under 25) has the lowest income levels with half of the respondents in this group having an income of less than $30,000. The levels rise sharply through age group two and peak with age group 3 (36 years to 45 years). Income levels then decline down to age group 6 (over 66 years), half the members of 35 Table 4.1: Basic demographics of respondents Characteristic Number Sex Male 227 Female 321 Age (years) (1) under 25 49 (2) 26 - 35 102 (3) 36 - 45 115 (4) 46 - 55 124 (5) 56 - 65 66 (6) over 66 90 Annual income ($) (1) under 20,000 124 (2) 20,001 - 30,000 89 (3) 30,001 - 40,000 95 (4) 40,001 - 50,000 63 (5) 50,001 - 60,000 41 (6) over 60,000 109 Location Auckland 349 North Shore 199 Figure 4.1 : Age distribution of respondents 100 - - 0 - I I under 25 26 - 35 I I 36 -45 46 - 55 age group Percent of total 41.42 58.58 8.97 18.68 21.06 22.71 12.09 16.48 23.80 17.08 18.23 12.09 7.87 20.92 63.69 36.31 I I 56 - 65 over 66 36 Figure 4.2: Age of respondents according to sex 300 age group x Over 66 Q) 226 '-.. 227 en ..c 200 184 56 - 65 u ro Q) 153 ......... c 46 - 55 '- 108, Q) 36 - 45 ..0 100 E 56......._ :::J 26 - 35 c 19......._ 0 Under 25 male Figure 4.3: Distribution of income of respondents >. (.) 100 c Q) :::J 0-& 50 0 - - - ~ ; I I I 321 320 272 -237 -158 95 -30 female ' •1• I I I less than $20,001 - $30,001 - $40,001 - $50,001 - over $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $60,000 income group Figure 4.4: Boxplots of income distribution by age group Cl. :::J e O'l Q) E 0 u c 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 age group 37 which have incomes under $30,000. The distribution of income between the sexes also follows a predictable pattern (see Figure 4.5) . The disparities between the sexes are extreme, with the distributions being almost a complete reversal of each other. The incomes of males tend towards the mid- to higher groups with outliers in the lower groups. The incomes of female respondents tend towards the mid- to lower groups with outliers in the higher groups. It is notable that despite the extreme differences between these figures in other areas the mean incomes of the sexes are very similar. The mean income grouping of males was 3.699 (approximately $37,000) while for females it is 3.5250 ($35,000). In the Auckland population the median incomes for males and females are $24,401 and $13,705 respectively. While the usefulness of such a statistic may be doubtful , it is possible to say that the profile of the typical respondent to this survey is a female , approximately 40 years old with an approximate income of $33,000. 4.2.4 Location An equal number of questionnaires were sent to the nine electorates that make up the main Auckland and North Shore area . These electorates and their proportion of the total responses are shown in Table 4.2. These areas can be more usefully divided into those in the Auckland area and those in the North Shore area (see Table 4.3) . 38 Figure 4.5: Boxplots of the distribution of income by sex Ol c 6 5 g- 4 e Ol (!) 3 E 0 u c 2 I male 2 female Table 4.2: Location of proportion of respondents Location Albany North Shore Northcote Auckland central Epsom Maungakiekie Mt Albert Mt Roskill Tamaki number of responses % of total responses 65 11.86 71 12.96 63 11 .50 56 10.22 63 11.50 50 9.12 56 10.22 60 10.95 64 11.68 Table 4.3: Simplified locations and their proportion of respondents Location Auckland North Shore number of responses 349 199 % of total responses 63.69 36.31 39 4.3 Travel Profile of Respondents 4.3.1 Recent travel Auckland residents were asked about their travel during 1998. From the survey results, it was evident that 54 per cent of respondents had travelled overseas in that period while nearly 90 per cent had travelled to another part of New Zealand. More specifically, 57 per cent had travelled to the Northland region (see Table 4.4) . This level of visitation to the Northland region may seem high but it should be remembered that the Auckland region is estimated to account for "approximately 80% of domestic visitors to Northland" (NZTB, 1996, p.20). Through proximity alone, Northland is one of the regions of New Zealand that Auckland residents are most likely to visit. The relatively short times from Auckland and low costs involved in travelling shorter distances can be very attractive. 4.3.2 Factors influencing the likelihood of visiting an area of New Zealand This question produced some interesting results concerning which factors would make Auckland residents more likely or less likely to visit an area of New Zealand . Five-point Likert scales were used to measure the desirability of each factor and the mean ratings are listed in Table 4.5 . This shows which factors are regarded as the most attractive. The respondents' ranking of the factors supports the traditional view of the elements that motivate holiday travellers. Crandall's list of recreation motivations (see Table 4.6) shows how important the elements of relaxation and escape from routine are to recreational activities . These elements can also be applied to recreational travel and the resulting rankings given to the factors are therefore reasonably predictable. Landscape, weather conditions , and low costs of transport and accommodation rank highly and unpredictable weather, the presence of other tourists , and high accommodation/transport costs were ranked at the bottom of the scale. The relatively high ranking of historical attractions is significant. This may suggest a move away from the sun, sand, surf holiday to a more cultural experience, a trend widely recognised in the growing literature on heritage tourism with Hall and McArthur (1996, p.2) noting that "heritage tourism is now big business" . The staging of a special event yielded a surprisingly low ranking given their importance in the promotion and planning of New Zealand tourism destinations. Indeed, Ryan, Smee, Murphy and Getz (1998, p.82) note that "events in New Zealand, as elsewhere, are continuing to grow and to be taken more seriously as an important 40 Table 4.4: Destinations travelled to by Auckland residents in the last year Destination Number of Per cent of respondents sample* Another country 297 54.30 Another part of New Zealand 491 89.76 Northland region 312 57.04 *Percentages do not sum to 100 as some respondents are counted in more than one category Table 4.5: Factors affecting the likelihood of Auckland residents visiting an area of New Zealand (in descending order of attraction) Factor Beautiful natural scenery Fine weather Low accommodation/transport costs Peace and quiet Wide range of activities Historical attractions Few other tourists Friendly locals Lots of outdoor activities Staging of a special event Lots of indoor activities Suitability for families Good local transport Lots of activities for children Poor local transport Unpredictable weather Lots of other tourists High accommodation/transport costs Mean 1.5947 1.8542 1.9363 1.9549 2.1603 2.2819 2.3008 2.3125 2.3378 2.7981 3.0830 3.1939 3.2399 3.5556 3.7973 4.0987 4.2814 4.3435 41 Table 4.6: Crandall 's list of motivations Enjoying nature, escaping from civilisation To get away from civilisation for a while To be close to nature 2 Escape from routine and responsibility Change from my daily routine To get away from the responsibilities of my everyday life 3 Physical exercise For the exercise To keep in shape 4 Creativity To be creative 5 Relaxation To relax physically So my mind can slow down for a while 6 Social contact So I could do things with my companions To get away from other people 7 Meeting new people To talk to new and varied people To build friendships with new people 8 Heterosexual contact To be with people of the opposite sex To meet people of the opposite sex 9 Family contact To be away from the family for a while To help bring the family together more 10 Recognition, status To show others I could do it So others would think highly of me for doing it 11 Social power To have control over others To be in a position of authority 12 Altruism To help others 13 Stimulus seeking For the excitement Because of the risks involved 14 Self-actualisation (feedback, self-improvement, ability utilisation) Seeing the results of your efforts Using a variety of skills and talents 15 Achievement, challenge, competition To develop my skills and ability Because of the competition To learn what I am capable of 16 Killing time, avoiding boredom To keep busy To avoid boredom 17 Intellectual aestheticism To use my mind To think about my personal values Source: Crandall (1980, cited in Hall and Page, 1999, p.27) . 42 component of tourism infrastructure". These results suggest that it may be that rather than actually attracting visitors to an area, special events are "a reason for visitors already in an area to stay longer" (Getz, 1997, p.52). Either way, they certainly "can have tourism value" (Getz, 1997, p.52) as indicated by the prominence in the promotional strategies in reg ions and local areas in New Zealand. It is also possible that in answering this question respondents were considering high season domestic travel while special events have more of an influence on low-season domestic travel. One factor that rated much higher than staging a special event was a 'wide range of activities'. This suggests that investment by regional tourism bodies in establishing a wide range of permanent activities rather than focussing on special events which are by nature only temporary, could be more effective. Yet special events are by their very nature more cost effective when capital investment is limited for the tourism sector. The last eight of these factors in Table 4.5 were given ratings over 3 which shows what would make respondents 'less likely' to visit an area. It is interesting to note that both 'suitability for families' and 'lots of activities for children' fall into this range. Clearly most respondents do not need to take children into account when travelling. In fact, 'lots of activities for children' was given a negative rating which is a relatively large distance from the neutral position. This suggests that respondents wi ll actively avoid an area which they suspect will contain families holidaying with children. Kruskal-Wallis tests were then carried out that identified groupings in