Schaerer MPlessis CDNguyen MHBvan Aert RCMTiokhin LLakens DClemente EGPfeiffer TDreber AJohannesson MClark CJUhlmann ELAbraham ATAdamus MAkinci CAlberti FAlsharawy AMAlzahawi SAnseel FArndt FBalkan BBaskin EBearden CEBenotsch EGBernritter SBlack SRBleidorn WBoysen APBrienza JPBrown MBrown SEVBrown JWBuckley JButtliere BByrd NCígler HCapitan TCherubini PChong SYCiftci EEConrad CDConway PCosta ECox JACox DJCruz FDawson IGJDemiral EEDerrick JLDoshi SDunleavy DJDurham JDElbaek CTEllis DAErt EEspinoza MPFüllbrunn SCFath SFurrer RFiala LFillon AAForsgren MFytraki ATGalarza FBGandhi LGarrison SMGeraldes DGhasemi OGjoneska BGothilander JGrühn DGrieder MHafenbrädl SHalkias GHancock RHantula DAHarton HCHoffmann CPHolzmeister FHoŕak FHosch A-KImada HIoannidis KJaeger BJanas MJanik BPratap KC RKeel PKKeeley JWKeller LKenrick DTKiely KMKnutsson MKovacheva AKovera MBKrivoshchekov VKrumrei-Mancuso EJKulibert DLacko DLemay EP2024-09-292024-09-292023-11Schaerer M, Plessis CD, Nguyen MHB, Aert RCMV, Tiokhin L, Lakens D, Clemente EG, Pfeiffer T, Dreber A, Johannesson M, Clark CJ, Uhlmann EL, Abraham AT, Adamus M, Akinci C, Alberti F, Alsharawy AM, Alzahawi S, Anseel F, Arndt F, Balkan B, Baskin E, Bearden CE, Benotsch EG, Bernritter S, Black SR, Bleidorn W, Boysen AP, Brienza JP, Brown M, Brown SEV, Brown JW, Buckley J, Buttliere B, Byrd N, Cígler H, Capitan T, Cherubini P, Chong SY, Ciftci EE, Conrad CD, Conway P, Costa E, Cox JA, Cox DJ, Cruz F, Dawson IGJ, Demiral EE, Derrick JL, Doshi S, Dunleavy DJ, Durham JD, Elbaek CT, Ellis DA, Ert E, Espinoza MP, Füllbrunn SC, Fath S, Furrer R, Fiala L, Fillon AA, Forsgren M, Fytraki AT, Galarza FB, Gandhi L, Garrison SM, Geraldes D, Ghasemi O, Gjoneska B, Gothilander J, Grühn D, Grieder M, Hafenbr¨adl S, Halkias G, Hancock R, Hantula DA, Harton HC, Hoffmann CP, Holzmeister F, Hoŕak F, Hosch AK, Imada H, Ioannidis K, Jaeger B, Janas M, Janik B, Kc RP, Keel PK, Keeley JW, Keller L, Kenrick DT, Kiely KM, Knutsson M, Kovacheva A, Kovera MB, Krivoshchekov V, Krumrei-Mancuso EJ, Kulibert D, Lacko D, Lemay EP. (2023). On the trajectory of discrimination: A meta-analysis and forecasting survey capturing 44 years of field experiments on gender and hiring decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 179.0749-5978https://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/71530A preregistered meta-analysis, including 244 effect sizes from 85 field audits and 361,645 individual job applications, tested for gender bias in hiring practices in female-stereotypical and gender-balanced as well as male-stereotypical jobs from 1976 to 2020. A “red team” of independent experts was recruited to increase the rigor and robustness of our meta-analytic approach. A forecasting survey further examined whether laypeople (n = 499 nationally representative adults) and scientists (n = 312) could predict the results. Forecasters correctly anticipated reductions in discrimination against female candidates over time. However, both scientists and laypeople overestimated the continuation of bias against female candidates. Instead, selection bias in favor of male over female candidates was eliminated and, if anything, slightly reversed in sign starting in 2009 for mixed-gender and male-stereotypical jobs in our sample. Forecasters further failed to anticipate that discrimination against male candidates for stereotypically female jobs would remain stable across the decades.(c) 2023 The Author/sCC BY 4.0https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Gender DiscriminationField experimentsMeta-analysisOpen scienceForecastingJournal article10.1016/j.obhdp.2023.1042801095-9920journal-article104280S0749597823000560