Mead SRProcter JKereszturi G2024-03-192024-07-252024-03-192024-07-252021-08-20Mead SR, Procter J, Kereszturi G. (2021). Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 21. 8. (pp. 2447-2460).1561-8633https://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/70990The use of mass flow simulations in volcanic hazard zonation and mapping is often limited by model complexity (i.e. uncertainty in correct values of model parameters), a lack of model uncertainty quantification, and limited approaches to incorporate this uncertainty into hazard maps. When quantified, mass flow simulation errors are typically evaluated on a pixel-pair basis, using the difference between simulated and observed ("actual") map-cell values to evaluate the performance of a model. However, these comparisons conflate location and quantification errors, neglecting possible spatial autocorrelation of evaluated errors. As a result, model performance assessments typically yield moderate accuracy values. In this paper, similarly moderate accuracy values were found in a performance assessment of three depth-averaged numerical models using the 2012 debris avalanche from the Upper Te Maari crater, Tongariro Volcano, as a benchmark. To provide a fairer assessment of performance and evaluate spatial covariance of errors, we use a fuzzy set approach to indicate the proximity of similarly valued map cells. This "fuzzification"of simulated results yields improvements in targeted performance metrics relative to a length scale parameter at the expense of decreases in opposing metrics (e.g. fewer false negatives result in more false positives) and a reduction in resolution. The use of this approach to generate hazard zones incorporating the identified uncertainty and associated trade-offs is demonstrated and indicates a potential use for informed stakeholders by reducing the complexity of uncertainty estimation and supporting decision-making from simulated data.(c) 2021 The Author/sCC BY 4.0https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Journal article10.5194/nhess-21-2447-20211684-9981journal-article2447-2460http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000687653000001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=c5bb3b2499afac691c2e3c1a83ef6fef