Browsing by Author "Dryhurst S"

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    Fighting misinformation in seismology: Expert opinion on earthquake facts vs. fiction
    (Frontiers Media S.A, 2022-12-16) Dryhurst S; Mulder F; Dallo I; Kerr JR; McBride SK; Fallou L; Becker JS
    Misinformation carries the potential for immense damage to public understanding of science and for evidence-based decision making at an individual and policy level. Our research explores the following questions within seismology: which claims can be considered misinformation, which are supported by a consensus, and which are still under scientific debate? Consensus and debate are important to quantify, because where levels of scientific consensus on an issue are high, communication of this fact may itself serve as a useful tool in combating misinformation. This is a challenge for earthquake science, where certain theories and facts in seismology are still being established. The present study collates a list of common public statements about earthquakes and provides–to the best of our knowledge–the first elicitation of the opinions of 164 earth scientists on the degree of verity of these statements. The results provide important insights for the state of knowledge in the field, helping identify those areas where consensus messaging may aid in the fight against earthquake related misinformation and areas where there is currently lack of consensus opinion. We highlight the necessity of using clear, accessible, jargon-free statements with specified parameters and precise wording when communicating with the public about earthquakes, as well as of transparency about the uncertainties around some issues in seismology.
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    Predicting the replicability of social and behavioural science claims in COVID-19 preprints
    (Springer Nature Limited, 2024-12-20) Marcoci A; Wilkinson DP; Vercammen A; Wintle BC; Abatayo AL; Baskin E; Berkman H; Buchanan EM; Capitán S; Capitán T; Chan G; Cheng KJG; Coupé T; Dryhurst S; Duan J; Edlund JE; Errington TM; Fedor A; Fidler F; Field JG; Fox N; Fraser H; Freeman ALJ; Hanea A; Holzmeister F; Hong S; Huggins R; Huntington-Klein N; Johannesson M; Jones AM; Kapoor H; Kerr J; Kline Struhl M; Kołczyńska M; Liu Y; Loomas Z; Luis B; Méndez E; Miske O; Mody F; Nast C; Nosek BA; Simon Parsons E; Pfeiffer T; Reed WR; Roozenbeek J; Schlyfestone AR; Schneider CR; Soh A; Song Z; Tagat A; Tutor M; Tyner AH; Urbanska K; van der Linden S
    Replications are important for assessing the reliability of published findings. However, they are costly, and it is infeasible to replicate everything. Accurate, fast, lower-cost alternatives such as eliciting predictions could accelerate assessment for rapid policy implementation in a crisis and help guide a more efficient allocation of scarce replication resources. We elicited judgements from participants on 100 claims from preprints about an emerging area of research (COVID-19 pandemic) using an interactive structured elicitation protocol, and we conducted 29 new high-powered replications. After interacting with their peers, participant groups with lower task expertise ('beginners') updated their estimates and confidence in their judgements significantly more than groups with greater task expertise ('experienced'). For experienced individuals, the average accuracy was 0.57 (95% CI: [0.53, 0.61]) after interaction, and they correctly classified 61% of claims; beginners' average accuracy was 0.58 (95% CI: [0.54, 0.62]), correctly classifying 69% of claims. The difference in accuracy between groups was not statistically significant and their judgements on the full set of claims were correlated (r(98) = 0.48, P < 0.001). These results suggest that both beginners and more-experienced participants using a structured process have some ability to make better-than-chance predictions about the reliability of 'fast science' under conditions of high uncertainty. However, given the importance of such assessments for making evidence-based critical decisions in a crisis, more research is required to understand who the right experts in forecasting replicability are and how their judgements ought to be elicited.