Massey Research Online - Browsing by Author "Fletcher AJ"

Browsing by Author "Fletcher AJ"

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Alternative protein-based foods must contribute to micronutrient adequacy
(Taylor and Francis Group on behalf of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 2024-01-29) Smith NW; Fletcher AJ; McNabb WC
Sustainable diets must consider health, economic, environmental, and social outcomes. The development and production of alternative protein foods should also make these considerations. We examined the nutritional role of these foods, with New Zealand (NZ) as a case study. We used the DELTA Model® to assess 2020 NZ nutrient supply. We then simulated the substitution of 50% of meat supply (by mass) with various plant protein sources (soy, peas, beans, and mushroom), and observed the impact on nutrient supply. NZ had an undersupply of calcium (38%), vitamin E (34% deficit), dietary fibre (20%), potassium (13%), and vitamin C (10%) compared to population requirements. Contrastingly, there was sufficient protein and amino acid supply for an additional 2.4 million people. Halving of meat supply resulted in decreased availability for potassium (21% deficit), zinc (17%), folate (10%), and iron (9%). Soy proved the best nutritional replacement for meat, with reduced deficits for all undersupplied nutrients compared to 2020. Replacement with other modelled protein sources resulted in greater nutrient deficits. The nutritional implications beyond protein must be considered when making dietary substitutions. There are clear public health reasons to fortify alternative proteins with both the nutrients lost in substitution and those already in deficit.
Analysis of global nutrient gaps and their potential to be closed through redistribution and increased supply
(Frontiers Media S.A., 2024-08-09) Fletcher AJ; Lozano R; McNabb WC; Van Der Wielen N
Global food systems are crucial for sustaining life on Earth. Although estimates suggest that the current production system can provide enough food and nutrients for everyone, equitable distribution remains challenging. Understanding global nutrient distribution is vital for addressing disparities and creating effective solutions for the present and future. This study analyzes global nutrient supply changes to address inadequacies in certain populations using the existing DELTA Model®, which uses aggregates of global food production to estimate nutrient adequacy. By examining the 2020 global food commodity and nutrient distribution, we project future food production in 2050 needs to ensure global adequate nutrition. Our findings reveal that while some nutrients appear to be adequately supplied on a global scale, many countries face national insufficiencies (% supply below the population reference intake) in essential vitamins and minerals, such as vitamins A, B12, B2, potassium, and iron. Closing these gaps will require significant increases in nutrient supply. For example, despite global protein supply surpassing basic needs for the 2050 population, significant shortages persist in many countries due to distribution variations. A 1% increase in global protein supply, specifically targeting countries with insufficiencies, could address the observed 2020 gaps. However, without consumption pattern changes, a 26% increase in global protein production is required by 2050 due to population growth. In this study, a methodology was developed, applying multi-decade linear convergence to sufficiency values at the country level. This approach facilitates a more realistic assessment of future needs within global food system models, such as the DELTA Model®, transitioning from idealized production scenarios to realistic projections. In summary, our study emphasizes understanding global nutrient distribution and adjusting minimum global nutrient supply targets to tackle country-level inequality. Incorporating these insights into global food balance models can improve projections and guide policy decisions for sustainable, healthy diets worldwide.
Animal and plant-sourced nutrition: Complementary not competitive
(CSIRO Publishing, 2022-05) Smith NW; Fletcher AJ; Hill JP; McNabb WC; Pembleton K
Debate on the sustainability of the global food system often compares the environmental, economic and health impacts of plant- and animal-sourced foods. This distinction can mask the considerable variation in impacts across and within these food groups. Moreover, the nutritional benefits of these food groups are insufficiently discussed. In this review, we highlight the nutritional contribution to the current global food system of both plant- and animal-sourced foods and place their impacts on human health in the global context. We highlight how the comparison of the environmental impacts of foods via life cycle analyses can change on the basis of the functional unit used, particularly the use of mass as opposed to nutrient content or nutrient richness. We review the literature on the affordability of nutrient-adequate diets, demonstrating the presence of both plant- and animal-sourced foods in affordable nutritious diets. Finally, we address the potential of alternative food sources that are gaining momentum, to ask where they may fit in a sustainable food system. We conclude that there is a clear place for both plant- and animal-sourced foods in future sustainable food systems, and a requirement for both for sustainable global nutrition; as such, the two groups are complementary and not competitive.
Complex network analysis and health implications of nutrient trade
(Elsevier BV, 2024-03) Silvestrini MM; Smith NW; Fletcher AJ; McNabb WC; Sarti FM
Food trade plays a key role in global nutrition, but the essential nutrients within this trade are understudied. We investigated the global nutrient trade network from 1986 to 2020, examining the relationship with income level and health outcomes. Bilateral nutrient trade data for 48 nutrients and 254 countries/economies was produced, made accessible through an interactive online application. Nutrients of interest in the context of food security and health (protein, calcium, iron, and vitamins A and B12) were examined using network analysis, animated graphs, and logistic regression to demonstrate the inequitable nature of nutrient trade, but its positive role in current nutrition-related disease. Food trade policy should be set with micronutrient content and deficiency in mind to address food security, nutrition, and health.
Estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling
(Frontiers Media S.A., 2022-12-16) Smith NW; Fletcher AJ; Millard P; Hill JP; McNabb WC; Ridoutt BG
Introduction: The production of plant crops is foundational to the global food system. With the need for this system to become more sustainable while feeding an increasing global population, tools to investigate future food system scenarios can be useful to aid decision making, but are often limited to a calorie- or protein-centric view of human nutrition. Methods: Here, a mathematical model for forecasting the future cropland requirement to produce a given quantity of crop mass is presented in conjunction with the DELTA Model®: an existing food system scenario model calculating global availability of 29 nutrients against human requirements. The model uses national crop yield data to assign yield metrics for 137 crops. Results: The crops with the greatest variation between high and low yielding production were specific nuts, fruits, and vegetables of minor significance to global nutrient availability. The nut crop group showed the greatest overall yield variation between countries, and thus the greatest uncertainty when forecasting the cropland requirement for future increases in production. Sugar crops showed the least overall yield variation. The greatest potential for increasing global food production by improving poor yielding production was found for the most widely grown crops: maize, wheat, and rice, which were also demonstrated to be of high nutritional significance. Discussion: The combined cropland and nutrient availability model allowed the contribution of plant production to global nutrition to be quantified, and the cropland requirement of future food production scenarios to be estimated. The unified cropland estimation and nutrient availability model presented here is an intuitive and broadly applicable tool for use in global food system scenario modeling. It should benefit future research and policy making by demonstrating the implications for human nutrition of changes to crop production, and conversely the implications for cropland requirement of food production scenarios aimed at improving nutrition.
Modeling the Contribution of Meat to Global Nutrient Availability
(Frontiers Media S.A., 2022-02-02) Smith NW; Fletcher AJ; Hill JP; McNabb WC; Berry E
An increasing global population requires increasing food and nutrient availability. Meat is recognized as a nutrient dense food, particularly notable for its high-quality protein content, B vitamin and mineral content. However, it is not known how important meat is currently in nourishing the global population. The DELTA Model was used to calculate the contribution of meat (defined as animal flesh, excluding fish and seafood) to the global availability of 29 nutrients. This model utilizes global food production and use data, coupled with data for food waste, food nutrient composition and nutrient bioavailability to calculate the total amount of each nutrient available for consumption by the global population. Around 333 million tons of meat were produced globally in 2018, 95% of which was available as food, constituting ~7% of total food mass. Meat's contribution to nutrient availability was disproportionately higher than this: meat provided 11% of global food energy availability, 29% of dietary fat and 21% of protein. For the micronutrients, meat provided high proportions of vitamins: A (24%), B1 and B2 (15% each), B5 (10%), B6 (13%), and B12 (56%). Meat also provided high proportions of several trace elements: zinc (19%), selenium (18%), iron (13%), phosphorous (11%), and copper (10%). Meat is a poor contributor to fiber, magnesium and vitamins C and E. Meat was responsible for 16% (cystine) to 32% (lysine) of global availability of the bioavailable indispensable amino acids included in the model, due partly to the high digestibility of these nutrients from meat (83-100%). Of the total meat mass available as food in 2018, 23% was ruminant meat, 34% poultry meat, 32% pig meat, 2% other meat, and 9% offal and fats. The disproportionate contribution of meat to the global availability of nutrients emphasizes its important place in delivering nutrition to the current global population.
Modeling the Contribution of Milk to Global Nutrition
(Frontiers Media S.A., 2022-01-13) Smith NW; Fletcher AJ; Hill JP; McNabb WC; Skeaff SA
Nutrient-rich foods play a major role in countering the challenges of nourishing an increasing global population. Milk is a source of high-quality protein and bioavailable amino acids, several vitamins, and minerals such as calcium. We used the DELTA Model, which calculates the delivery of nutrition from global food production scenarios, to examine the role of milk in global nutrition. Of the 29 nutrients considered by the model, milk contributes to the global availability of 28. Milk is the main contributing food item for calcium (49% of global nutrient availability), Vitamin B2 (24%), lysine (18%), and dietary fat (15%), and contributes more than 10% of global nutrient availability for a further five indispensable amino acids, protein, vitamins A, B5, and B12, phosphorous, and potassium. Despite these high contributions to individual nutrients, milk is responsible for only 7% of food energy availability, indicating a valuable contribution to global nutrition without necessitating high concomitant energy intakes. Among the 98 food items considered by the model, milk ranks in the top five contributors to 23 of the 29 nutrients modeled. This quantification of the importance of milk to global nutrition in the current global food system demonstrates the need for the high valuation of this food when considering future changes to the system.
Modeling the feasibility of fermentation-produced protein at a globally relevant scale
(Frontiers Media S.A., 2024-07-10) Fletcher AJ; Smith NW; Hill JP; McNabb WC
Introduction: Fermentation-produced protein (FPP) is gaining global interest as a means of protein production with potentially lower cost and environmental footprint than conventionally-produced animal-sourced proteins. However, estimates on the potential performance of FPP vary substantially, limiting assessment of its scalability and utility. Methods: We integrate life cycle analysis data with nutritional and economic data in an interactive online tool, simulating the requirements and consequences of fermentation at a globally-relevant scale. Results: The tool demonstrates that production of an additional 18 million tons of protein annually via fermentation (~10% of 2020 global consumption) would necessitate 10–25 million hectares of feedstock cropland expansion/reallocation, utilize up to 1% of global electricity generation, produce 159 million tons CO2 equivalents, and have a total process input cost of 53.77 billion USD, with a negligible impact on nutrient supply beyond protein. Discussion: This tool should be used to inform the debate on the future use of fermentation in the food system.
Use of the DELTA Model to Understand the Food System and Global Nutrition
(Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Society for Nutrition, 2021-10) Smith NW; Fletcher AJ; Dave LA; Hill JP; McNabb WC
BACKGROUND: Increasing attention is being directed at the environmental, social, and economic sustainability of the global food system. However, a key aspect of a sustainable food system should be its ability to deliver nutrition to the global population. Quantifying nutrient adequacy with current tools is challenging. OBJECTIVE: To produce a computational model illustrating the nutrient adequacy of current and proposed global food systems. METHODS: The DELTA Model was constructed using global food commodity balance sheet data, alongside demographic and nutrient requirement data from UN and European Food Safety Authority sources. It also includes nutrient bioavailability considerations for protein, the indispensable amino acids, iron, and zinc, sourced from scientific literature. RESULTS: The DELTA Model calculates global per capita nutrient availability under conditions of equal distribution and identifies areas of nutrient deficiency for various food system scenarios. Modeling the 2018 global food system showed that it supplied insufficient calcium (64% of demographically weighted target intake) and vitamin E (69%), despite supplying sufficient macronutrients. Several future scenarios were modeled, including variations in waste; scaling up current food production for the 2030 global population; plant-based food production systems; and removing sugar crops from the global food system. Each of these scenarios fell short of meeting requirements for multiple nutrients. These results emphasize the need for a balanced approach in the design of future food systems. CONCLUSIONS: Nutrient adequacy must be at the forefront of the sustainable food system debate. The DELTA Model was designed for both experts and nonexperts to inform this debate as to what may be possible, practical, and optimal for our food system. The model results strongly suggest that both plant and animal foods are necessary to achieve global nutrition. The model is freely available for public use so that anyone can explore current and simulated global food systems.

Browsing by Author "Fletcher AJ"

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