Browsing by Author "Marshall BR"

Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
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    Are individual stock returns predictable?
    (SAGE Publications on behalf of the University of New South Wales, 2022-02) Zeng H; Marshall BR; Nguyen NH; Visaltanachoti N
    We show that the previously documented predictability of macroeconomic and technical variables for market returns is also evident in individual stock returns. Technical variables generate better predictability on firms with high limits to arbitrage (small, illiquid, volatile firms), while macroeconomic variables better predict firms with low limits to arbitrage. Technical predictors show a stronger predictive power for high limits to arbitrage firms across the business cycle, whereas macroeconomic variables capture more predictive information for firms with low limits to arbitrage during recessions.
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    Broker and institutional investor short selling
    (John Wiley and Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, 2024-09-20) Marshall BR; Nguyen NH; Visaltanachoti N; Zhu J
    Brokers have access to order-flow data, which they can use to enhance their short-selling returns. However, New Zealand brokers also have a fiduciary duty to place their clients' interests before their own. We compare the short-selling returns and trading behaviours of brokers and institutional investors who predominantly focus on profit-making. Our results show no significant return difference between broker and institutional short sales and indicate that broker short sales are apparently to stabilise the market. Short selling is associated with improved market quality, and this improvement is more pronounced when brokers short sell more than institutional investors.
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    Estimating Long-Term Expected Returns
    (Taylor and Francis Group, 2024-07-01) Ma R; Marshall BR; Nguyen NH; Visaltanachoti N
    Estimating long-term expected returns as accurately as possible is of critical importance. Researchers typically base their estimates on yield and growth, valuation, or a combined yield, growth, and valuation (“three-component”) framework. We run a horse race of the abilities of different frameworks and input proxies within each framework to estimate 10- and 20-year out-of-sample returns. The three-component model based on the TRCAPE valuation proxy outperforms estimates based on historical mean benchmark returns, with mean square error improvements exceeding 30%. Using this approach in asset allocation decisions results in an improvement in Sharpe ratios of more than 50%.
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    Insider trading and climate disasters
    (Elsevier Inc, 2024-09) Ma R; Marshall BR; Nguyen HT; Nguyen NH; Visaltanachoti N
    Climate disasters are increasing in frequency and severity. While a large body of research has shown that extreme climate affects various economic decisions, how climate events influence investment decisions remains largely under-investigated. This paper examines whether, and to what extent, climate disasters influence insider transactions, which are important investment decisions that attract increasing attention from both corporate management and policymakers. We find that the monthly value of insider trades increases markedly in firms headquartered in counties with a climate disaster. Climate-induced insider trading holds in general but is stronger when investors are distracted and less prevalent when insiders face higher litigation risk. Climate disasters trigger uncertainty about short-term firm fundamentals, and insiders benefit by selling prior to this being priced. Insiders living in disaster counties do not trade more than those in unaffected counties, which does not support a personal liquidity motivation. Our paper documents a new way through which climate impacts investor behavior and financial markets.
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    What influences demand for Buy Now, Pay Later credit?
    (Elsevier B V, 2024-09) Chen T; Marshall BR; Nguyen NH; Visaltanachoti N
    We investigate the determinants of demand for Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) credit using a comprehensive database from New Zealand. We consider both absolute demand and relative to total personal lending demand. The results indicate that BNPL is more popular with single individuals, younger people, and those on lower incomes. There is a negative relation between absolute and relative BNPL demand and interest rates. BNPL demand was reduced during the period around responsible lending legislation changes, even though these were not specifically related to BNPL, while demand increased following the end of COVID-19 lockdowns.