Browsing by Author "Parker KA"

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
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    Avian Influenza Virus Surveillance Across New Zealand and Its Subantarctic Islands Detects H1N9 in Migratory Shorebirds, but Not 2.3.4.4b HPAI H5N1
    (John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2025-04) Waller SJ; Wierenga JR; Heremia L; Darnley JA; de Vries I; Dubrulle J; Robinson Z; Miller AK; Niebuhr CN; Melville DS; Schuckard R; Battley PF; Wille M; Alai B; Cole R; Cooper J; Ellenberg U; Elliott G; Faulkner J; Fischer JH; Fyfe J; Hay L; Houston D; Keys BC; Long J; Long R; Mattern T; McGovern H; McNutt L; Moore P; Neil O; Osborne J; Pagé A-S; Parker KA; Perry M; Philp B; Reid J; Rexer-Huber K; Russell JC; Sagar R; Ruru TT; Thompson T; Thomson L; Tinnemans J; Uddstrom L; Waipoua TA; Walker K; Whitehead E; Wickes C; Young MJ; McInnes K; Winter D; Geoghegan JL
    Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N1 has never been detected in New Zealand. The potential impact of this virus on New Zealand's wild birds would be catastrophic. To expand our knowledge of avian influenza viruses across New Zealand, we sampled wild aquatic birds from New Zealand, its outer islands and its subantarctic territories. Metatranscriptomic analysis of 700 individuals spanning 33 species revealed no detection of H5N1 during the annual 2023–2024 migration. A single detection of H1N9 in red knots (Calidris canutus) was noted. This study provides a baseline for expanding avian influenza virus monitoring in New Zealand.
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    Combining prior and post-release data while accounting for dispersal to improve predictions for reintroduction populations
    (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. on behalf of Zoological Society of London., 2024-05-24) Armstrong DP; Stone ZL; Parlato EH; Ngametua G; King E; Gibson S; Zieltjes S; Parker KA; Ewen J; Canessa S
    Attempts to reintroduce species to managed areas may be compromised by dispersal into the surrounding landscape. Therefore, decisions regarding the selection and ongoing management of reintroduction areas require predicting dispersal as well as the survival and reproduction rates of the species to be reintroduced. Dispersal can potentially be measured directly by tracking animals, but this is often impractical. However, dispersal can also be inferred from re-sighting surveys done within reintroduction areas if such data are available from multiple areas with varying connectivity to the surrounding landscape, allowing apparent survival and recruitment to be modelled as a function of connectivity metrics. Here, we show how data from 10 previous reintroductions of a New Zealand passerine, the toutouwai (Petroica longipes), were used to predict population dynamics at a predator-controlled reintroduction area with high connectivity, and predictions then updated using post-release data. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of the previous data produced prior distributions for productivity, adult survival and apparent juvenile survival rates that accounted for random variation among areas as well as rat density and connectivity. The modelling of apparent juvenile survival as a function of connectivity allowed it to be partitioned into estimates of survival and fidelity. Bayesian updating based on post-release data produced posterior distributions for parameters that were consistent with the priors but much more precise. The prior data also allowed the recruitment rate estimated in the new area to be partitioned into separate estimates for productivity, juvenile survival and juvenile fidelity. Consequently, it was possible to not only estimate population growth under current management, but also predict the consequences of reducing the scale or intensity of predator control, facilitating adaptive management. The updated model could then be used to predict population growth as a function of the connectivity and predator control regime at proposed reintroduction areas while accounting for random variation among areas.
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    Simulating Demography, Monitoring, and Management Decisions to Evaluate Adaptive Management Strategies for Endangered Species
    (Wiley, 2025-04-02) Canessa S; Converse SJ; Adams L; Armstrong DP; Makan T; McCready M; Parker KA; Parlato EH; Sipe HA; Ewen JG
    Adaptive management (AM) remains underused in conservation, partly because optimization-based approaches require real-world problems to be substantially simplified. We present an approach to AM based in management strategy evaluation, a method used largely in fisheries. Managers define objectives and nominate alternative adaptive strategies, whose future performance is simulated by integrating ecological, learning and decision processes. We applied this approach to conservation of hihi (Notiomystis cincta) across Aotearoa-New Zealand. For multiple extant and prospective hihi populations, we jointly simulated demographic trends, monitoring, estimation, and decisions including translocations and supplementary feeding. Results confirmed that food supplementation assisted recovery, but was more intensive and expensive. Over 20 years, actively pursuing learning, for example by removing food from populations, provided little benefit. Recovery group members supported continuing current management or increasing priority on existing populations before reintroducing new populations. Our simulation-based approach can complement formal optimization-based approaches and improve AM uptake, particularly for programs involving many complex and coordinated decisions.
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    To translocate or not to translocate? Embedding population modelling in an inclusive structured decision-making process to overcome a conservation impasse
    (John Wiley and Sons Ltd on behalf of the Zoological Society of London, 2024-07-20) Parlato EH; Fischer JH; Steeves TE; Graydon K; Kennedy E; Makan T; Patterson E; Thurley T; Welch J; Parker KA; Ewen J; Petracca L
    The need for effective conservation strategies to combat the ongoing biodiversity crisis is well recognised. Conservation translocations are an important and frequently used form of conservation management for species recovery. Despite this, the uncertainty prevalent throughout the translocation cycle often makes it challenging to determine whether translocations should be included in the suite of actions to achieve desired conservation outcomes. Further, the fundamental question of whether translocations should occur is seldom assessed as a formal decision. We applied a formal decision analysis for the conservation management of a highly threatened bird (karure | kakaruia | Chatham Island black robin | Petroica traversi) to evaluate whether translocation and/or other actions should be implemented for species recovery. The species' precarious status (<330 adults), combined with uncertainty about translocation outcomes, meant that for years, decision-makers were reluctant to act given the potentially severe consequences of translocation failure. We used structured decision-making in conjunction with population modelling to estimate the consequences of translocations and other actions across a range of objectives identified by Moriori and Ngāti Mutunga o Wharekauri (Indigenous Peoples of Rēkohu | Wharekauri | the Chatham Islands), the local community and government agencies. Structured decision-making facilitated an inclusive approach that ensured all participants were actively engaged in the decision-making process including the identification of the best management alternative while balancing multiple objectives. This process overcame the long-standing conservation impasse, resulting in rapid implementation of actions, including translocation, that would have otherwise been difficult to achieve. The preferred alternative across objectives involved multiple translocations, illustrating the vital role translocations have in the desired future management for the species. The methods used in our study can be readily applied in other species recovery programmes to help decision-makers navigate the complexities and uncertainties inherent in conservation decisions.