Browsing by Author "Shakur S"
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- ItemAnalysis of China’s Agri-food Imports In an Extended Gravity ModelShakur S; Tang M; Ngo TSince 2000, China has changed from a net exporter to a net importer of agri-food products to a point such that food security and agricultural trade balance are a major concern to Chinese authorities. This research estimated the effect of the ten explanatory variables that have impacted on China's accelerated food imports from 19 trading partners over 2000-2014. An extended gravity model that include economic, demographic, geographic factors and China's free trade agreements (FTAs) to 5 commodity groups separately, in addition to an aggregated data to allow a deeper understanding about the topic. Results from the research suggest that they all have varying but significant impacts on China’s agri-food imports. Agri-food imports to China are predicted to increase. For Chinese authorities to concentrate on own agricultural development and cost-effective trade with other
- ItemNew Zealand’s Trade Prospects in an Uncertain Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Environment: Results from Gravity Model(2017-10-20) Shakur S; Tsang CYAbstract: This paper applies a modified gravity model to assess trade patterns between New Zealand and its major trading partners, including potential TPP members using annual pre-agreement data for the period 2000-2015. Although the Agreement, in its current form, cannot enter into force without the US participation, the remaining members have reaffirmed their commitment to TPP. The assumptions of the traditional gravity model that economic size would positively affect bilateral trade flows between countries while distance would negatively affect this outcome was tested. Results from this research suggest that New Zealand tends to trade more with larger countries and having free trade agreement with major Asia-Pacific countries will enhance New Zealand’s merchandise trade, especially exports of agricultural products. At another level, trade intensity index (TII) and the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) between New Zealand and potential TPP members were also calculated in this research. When applied to potential TPP countries, calculated TIIs show that there is not enough evidence to suggest that TPP would necessarily improve New Zealand’s trading relationship with member countries, yet it would reinforce the existing trade patterns. Calculated RCAs in this research indicate that the trade creation effects are likely to be larger than trade diversion effects. Generally speaking, the TPP countries are sharing different RCA in different product groups. Although the status of TPP remains uncertain at this time, this study could provide some useful predictions about the likely trade effects on New Zealand merchandise trade after some variant of the TPP become a reality.
- ItemNonlinear Effects of Remittances on Per Capita GDP Growth in Bangladesh(MDPI AG, 2017-07-17) Shakur S; Hassan GM; Poot, JThe paper examines the impact of inward remittances flows on per capita GDP growth in Bangladesh during 1976-2012. We find that the growth effect of remittances is negative at first but becomes positive at a later stage, an evidence of a non-linear. Unproductive use of remittances was rampant in the beginning when they were received by migrant families but better social and economic investments led to more productive utilisation of remittances receipts at later periods. This was the possible mechanism behind the U-shaped relationship. Unlike what is suggested in the literature that the effect of remittances is more pronounced in a less financially developed economy, our evidence do not show that the effect of remittances on per capita GDP growth in Bangladesh is conditional on the level of financial development.
- ItemRural-urban differences in willingness to pay for organic vegetables: Evidence from Vietnam(Elsevier Ltd, 2019-10-01) Ha TM; Shakur S; Pham Do KHConcerns about food safety together with rising disposable income means consumers in developing countries are willing to pay more for safe and high-quality food such as organic vegetables. At the same time, socioeconomic profiles differ in rural versus urban areas leading to differing intakes. This paper investigates regional differences in the determinants of willingness to pay (WTP) for organic vegetables in Vietnam. A contingent valuation survey was used to collect information on consumer preferences of organic vegetables in two regions of Hanoi. Using interval regression model, we found that consumer perception about organic vegetables, trust in labels, and disposable family income increased WTP for organic vegetables in both urban and rural regions. Risk perception of conventional vegetables was high in both regions. However, higher WTP prevailed only in the rural region. Besides, growing vegetables at home affected the WTP only in the rural region while education played a role in the WTP in the urban region. Since rural and urban consumers have different preferences toward organic food, they should not be treated as a homogenous group in formulating organic food policy. This paper also shows that very high price of organic vegetables and lack of trust in organic labels are key barriers to organic purchase. Thus, creating more trust and reducing the price of organic vegetables through lowering certification cost might be a good strategy to expand the organic vegetable market in Vietnam.