Browsing by Author "Wilson TM"
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- ItemA modular framework for the development of multi-hazard, multi-phase volcanic eruption scenario suites(Elsevier BV, 2022-07) Weir AM; Mead S; Bebbington MS; Wilson TM; Beaven S; Gordon T; Campbell-Smart CUnderstanding future volcanic eruptions and their potential impact is a critical component of disaster risk reduction, and necessitates the production of salient, robust hazard information for decision-makers and end-users. Volcanic eruptions are inherently multi-phase, multi-hazard events, and the uncertainty and complexity surrounding potential future hazard behaviour is exceedingly hard to communicate to decision-makers. Volcanic eruption scenarios are recognised to be an effective knowledge-sharing mechanism between scientists and practitioners, and recent hybrid scenario suites partially address the limitations surrounding the traditional deterministic scenario approach. Despite advances in scenario suite development, there is still a gap in the international knowledge base concerning the synthesis of multi-phase, multi-hazard volcano science and end-user needs. In this study we present a new modular framework for the development of complex, long-duration, multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic eruption scenario suites. The framework was developed in collaboration with volcanic risk management agencies and researchers in Aotearoa-New Zealand, and is applied to Taranaki Mounga volcano, an area of high volcanic risk. This collaborative process aimed to meet end-user requirements, as well as the need for scientific rigour. This new scenario framework development process could be applied at other volcanic settings to produce robust, credible and relevant scenario suites that are demonstrative of the complex, varying-duration and multi-hazard nature of volcanic eruptions. In addressing this gap, the value of volcanic scenario development is enhanced by advancing multi-hazard assessment capabilities and cross-sector collaboration between scientists and practitioners for disaster risk reduction planning.
- ItemAgriculture and forestry impact assessment for tephra fall hazard: fragility function development and New Zealand scenario application(Volcanica, 2021-12-31) Craig HM; Wilson TM; Magill C; Stewart C; Wild AJDeveloping approaches to assess the impact of tephra fall on agricultural and forestry systems is essential for informing effective disaster risk management strategies. Fragility functions are commonly used as the vulnerability model within a loss assessment framework and represent the relationship between a given hazard intensity measure (HIM; e.g. tephra thickness) and the probability of impacts occurring. Impacts are represented using an impact state (IS), which categorises qualitative and quantitative statements into a numeric scale. This study presents IS schemes for pastoral, horticultural, and forestry systems, and a suite of fragility functions estimating the probability of each IS occurring for 13 sub-sectors. Temporal vulnerability is accounted for by a ‘temporality/seasonality coefficient,’ and a ‘fluoride toxicity coefficient’ is included to incorporate the increased vulnerability of pastoral farms when tephra is high in leachable fluoride. The fragility functions are then used to demonstrate a deterministic impact assessment with current New Zealand exposure.