Working and Discussion Paper Series
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Item Determiners of accuracy when making an expected duration estimation: The role of ‘past’ event/task saliency(Massey University. Department of Management and International Business, 2006) Forsyth, DarrylOne of the important ‘skills’ which is associated with effective time management is the ability to accurately estimate the probable duration of a to-be-scheduled event or task. The present study explored the effect that presenting a highly salient, similar to-be-estimated task had on a subsequent task estimate. Participants in this experiment tended to allocate significantly less time to the completion of a task if they had previously estimated the expected duration of a similar, shorter task. Conversely, they tended to allocate significantly more time to the completion of a task if they had previously estimated the expected duration of a similar but longer task. The results are discussed in relation to future developments in scheduling/time management software.Item The effect that rounding to prototypical values has on expected duration estimation accuracy(Massey University. Department of Management and International Business, 2006) Forsyth, Darryl; Burt, ChristopherThe scheduling component of the time management process was used as a ‘paradigm’ to investigate the estimation of duration of future tasks. Two experiments looked at the effect that the tendency to provide estimates in the form of rounded close approximations had on estimation accuracy. Additionally, the two experiments investigated whether grouping tasks together prior to scheduling would decrease duration estimation error. The majority of estimates provided in both experiments were categorised as rounded close approximations, and were overestimates of the actual time required to complete the experimental tasks. The grouping together of the relatively short tasks used in Experiment 1 resulted in a significant increase in estimation accuracy. A similar result was found in Experiment 2 for relatively long tasks. The results are discussed in relation to the basic processes used to estimate the duration of future tasks, and means by which these scheduling activities can be improved.
