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Item Indirect interaction between an endemic and an invading pathogen: A case study of Plasmodium and Usutu virus dynamics in a shared bird host population.(Elsevier B.V., 2024-04-18) Dimas Martins A; Roberts M; Ten Bosch Q; Heesterbeek HInfectious disease agents can influence each other's dynamics in shared host populations. We consider such influence for two mosquito-borne infections where one pathogen is endemic at the time that a second pathogen invades. We regard a setting where the vector has a bias towards biting host individuals infected with the endemic pathogen and where there is a cost to co-infected hosts. As a motivating case study, we regard Plasmodium spp., that cause avian malaria, as the endemic pathogen, and Usutu virus (USUV) as the invading pathogen. Hosts with malaria attract more mosquitoes compared to susceptible hosts, a phenomenon named vector bias. The possible trade-off between the vector-bias effect and the co-infection mortality is studied using a compartmental epidemic model. We focus first on the basic reproduction number R0 for Usutu virus invading into a malaria-endemic population, and then explore the long-term dynamics of both pathogens once Usutu virus has become established. We find that the vector bias facilitates the introduction of malaria into a susceptible population, as well as the introduction of Usutu in a malaria-endemic population. In the long term, however, both a vector bias and co-infection mortality lead to a decrease in the number of individuals infected with either pathogen, suggesting that avian malaria is unlikely to be a promoter of Usutu invasion. This proposed approach is general and allows for new insights into other negative associations between endemic and invading vector-borne pathogens.Item Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface(Elsevier B.V, 2021-12) Roberts M; Dobson A; Restif O; Wells KThe Covid-19 pandemic is of zoonotic origin, and many other emerging infections of humans have their origin in an animal host population. We review the challenges involved in modelling the dynamics of wildlife–human interfaces governing infectious disease emergence and spread. We argue that we need a better understanding of the dynamic nature of such interfaces, the underpinning diversity of pathogens and host–pathogen association networks, and the scales and frequencies at which environmental conditions enable spillover and host shifting from animals to humans to occur. The major drivers of the emergence of zoonoses are anthropogenic, including the global change in climate and land use. These, and other ecological processes pose challenges that must be overcome to counterbalance pandemic risk. The development of more detailed and nuanced models will provide better tools for analysing and understanding infectious disease emergence and spread.