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Author: search.filters.author.Williams M

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    Political polarization and wellbeing: Investigating potential intrapersonal harm From affective polarization
    (Ubiquity Press, 2025-12-01) McMurtrie B; Roemer A; Philipp M; Hebden R; Williams M
    Affective polarization—antipathy towards members of one’s political out-group—may pose challenges to social cohesion and personal wellbeing. Prior studies have suggested that one’s affective polarization may cause intrapersonal harm as well as interpersonal harm. It has been associated with reduced social support, increased stress, and worse physical health. This pre-registered study investigated the intrapersonal harm of affective polarization using a six-wave longitudinal survey (N = 470). Affective polarization, social support, perceived stress, and self-rated health were measured fortnightly for three months preceding the 2024 US presidential election. Random intercept cross-lagged panel models were employed to investigate the within-person effects of affective polarization on these indicators of wellbeing. Contrary to hypotheses, none of the hypothesized cross-lagged effects were significant, suggesting that changes in affective polarization did not predict changes in social support, stress, or health. However, cross-sectional analyses did reflect past findings, showing that higher levels of affective polarization were associated with lower social support, greater stress, and worse health. We additionally found evidence for perceived stress causing moderate increases in affective polarization. Stable differences by political orientation were also observed in our sample, with liberals reporting higher affective polarization and stress, lower social support, and worse health. Despite the lack of significant effects, potentially due to limitations such as sample size and measurement constraints, our findings underscore the importance of further investigations with appropriate robust designs to clarify the relationship between affective polarization and wellbeing. These results challenge the assumption that affective polarization directly drives declines in wellbeing.
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    Quantifying opponent process dynamics in pornography use and masturbation: An exploratory ecological momentary assessment study
    (Springer, 2025-11-21) Henry N; Pedersen M; Williams M; Donkin L
    The causal relationships between pornography use, masturbation, moral incongruence, and mental health are poorly understood. While the link between problematic pornography use (PPU) and depression is well documented, the temporal dynamics associated with pornography use and masturbation have not yet been quantified. Utilizing an exploratory ecological momentary assessment (EMA) design, we measured the temporal dynamics of cognitive and affective state variables collected from 22 participants before, during, and after pornography use and masturbation, and examined the moderating role of moral incongruence in these relationships. Participants completed an initial survey followed by a four-week EMA, capturing data on sexual activities and cognitive and affective state variables. Bayesian hierarchical mixed-effects models were employed to analyze temporal dynamics. Findings suggest that pornography use and masturbation were linked to changes in affective and cognitive states that spiked both before and after sexual episodes. These states were generally more pronounced and sustained in participants with high moral incongruence, who experienced transient increases in shame, guilt, difficulty thinking, relationship disconnectedness, craving for sexual intercourse, and mood deterioration after pornography use and masturbation. These shifts typically persisted for several hours before decaying to baseline levels. High-incongruence participants also experienced strong spikes in craving prior to sexual episodes, while low-incongruence participants experienced craving spikes after pornography use and masturbation, indicating possible sensitization effects. Our findings also signalled potential evidence for “brain fog” following pornography use in both low and high-incongruence participants. Further, we discovered opponent process dynamics in the mood of high-incongruence participants, providing a possible causal mechanism that may explain how PPU can lead to depression.
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    A Hormetic Approach to the Value-Loading Problem: Preventing the Paperclip Apocalypse
    (Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd, 2025-10-06) Henry NIN; Pedersen M; Williams M; Martin JLB; Donkin L
    The value-loading problem is a major obstacle to creating Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems that align with human values and preferences. Central to this problem is the establishment of safe limits for repeatable AI behaviors. We introduce hormetic alignment, a paradigm to regulate the behavioral patterns of AI, grounded in the concept of hormesis, where low frequencies or repetitions of a behavior have beneficial effects, while high frequencies or repetitions are harmful. By modeling behaviors as allostatic opponent processes, we can use either Behavioral Frequency Response Analysis (BFRA) or Behavioral Count Response Analysis (BCRA) to quantify the safe and optimal limits of repeatable behaviors. We demonstrate how hormetic alignment solves the ‘paperclip maximizer’ scenario, a thought experiment where an unregulated AI tasked with making paperclips could end up converting all matter in the universe into paperclips. Our approach may be used to help create an evolving database of ‘values’ based on the hedonic calculus of repeatable behaviors with decreasing marginal utility. Hormetic alignment offers a principled solution to the value-loading problem for repeatable behaviors, augmenting current techniques by adding temporal constraints that reflect the diminishing returns of repeated actions. It further supports weak-to-strong generalization – using weaker models to supervise stronger ones – by providing a scalable value system that enables AI to learn and respect safe behavioral bounds. This paradigm opens new research avenues for developing computational value systems that govern not only single actions but the frequency and count of repeatable behaviors.
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    Communicating natural hazards science advice: Understanding scientists', decision-makers’, and the public's perceptions of the scientific process
    (Elsevier B.V., 2025-10-01) Doyle EEH; Thompson J; Hill SR; Williams M; Paton D; Harrison SE; Bostrom A; Becker JS
    How individuals perceive scientific processes impacts their interpretation of, trust in, and use of, science advice particularly when managing uncertain natural hazard risk. We explored a) how diverse stakeholders understand how science of natural hazards is produced, and b) how this relates to their ontological, epistemological, and philosophical views of science. Using inductive analysis of semi-structured interviews with 31 participants involved in the management of natural hazards in Aotearoa New Zealand (including non-scientists), we produced three leading themes describing their views: 1) ‘Science is a way of seeing the world’; 2) ‘Science has limitations’; and 3) ‘Knowledge evolves’. Across Scientist, non-Scientist, and Lay public groups, there was broad agreement on the fundamental steps of the scientific process, aligning mostly with a hypothetico-deductive process. However, many discussed how others may have different perspectives of scientific approaches, truth, and reality. These are informed by training, disciplinary biases, cultural practices, and personal experience of hazards and associated science. We propose that individuals who recognise different worldviews and philosophies of science will experience higher levels of communication and cognitive uncertainty, which encourages information seeking behaviour and can improve communication efficacy, particularly during high pressure events. We conclude with three communication lessons: 1) be transparent about the processes and causes of change in natural hazards science advice; 2) communicate as both trusted individuals as well as through collective Science Advisory Group (SAG) systems; and 3) provide accessible structures and language to help lay people articulate scientific processes they often intuitively understand, rather than just simplifying information.
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    How did the depression and anxiety levels of older New Zealanders change during the COVID-19 pandemic?
    (Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group, 2024-10-10) McLean T; Williams M; Stephens C
    There has been widespread concern about the mental health impact of the global COVID-19 outbreak. Fears have been raised that depression and anxiety among older people may have increased in the pandemic, and that adverse health behaviours, such as increased alcohol use and decreased physical activity, may have contributed to the mental health decline. This study aimed to examine changes in depression, anxiety, alcohol use and physical activity scores of people aged 55 and older in New Zealand over the initial months of the pandemic. The sample included 3,171 people who responded to wave 7 (August-November 2018) and wave 8 (June-September 2020) of the Health, Work and Retirement Study. Analyses were carried out using paired t tests and multilevel mediation modelling. There was no evidence of significant changes in depression or anxiety. Alcohol use and physical activity were shown to decrease significantly, albeit to a small degree, and there was evidence of an indirect effect of time on depression via physical activity. These findings suggest a general resilience among older people 3 to 6 months into the pandemic. However, increased attention should be paid to promoting physical exercise among older people, as a means of decreasing depression risk.
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    A cross-cultural test of competing hypotheses about system justification using data from 42 nations
    (Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Society of Political Psychology., 2024-09-25) Valdes EA; Liu JH; Williams M; Carr SC
    System justification theory (SJT) is a thriving field of research, wherein the primary questions revolve around why individuals and groups are motivated to see the systems they depend on as just, fair, and legitimate. This article seeks to answer how accurate the postulates of SJT are when compared to competing self-interest claims of social identity and social dominance theory. We addressed the ongoing debates among proponents of each theory by identifying who, when, and why individuals decide to system-justify. We used data comprised of 24,009 participants nested within 42 countries. Multilevel models largely supported the competing claims of social dominance and social identity theories over SJT. The most robust findings were: (1) greater objective socioeconomic status (SES) was associated with greater system justification; (2) the consistent positive relationship between subjective SES and system justification was partially mediated by life satisfaction; and (3) both ends of the political spectrum were willing to system-justify more when the political party they favored was in power. The results presented are used to discuss both the current state and the future directions for system justification research.
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    Antecedents of bullying victimisation in adolescents: a fresh look at Aotearoa New Zealand
    (Taylor & Francis Group, 2024-08-13) Birchall M; Drummond A; Williams M
    Research has consistently demonstrated that the prevalence of school bullying in Aotearoa New Zealand exceeds those observed in other developed countries. Despite the need to understand the risk and protective factors for bullying victimisation, there remains a paucity of research in the New Zealand context. The present study aimed to investigate the risk factors for bullying victimisation by conducting a secondary data analysis on a large and representative sample of 15-year-olds from New Zealand using data collected during the 2018 Programme for International Student Assessment (N = 4137). A multiple regression analysis identified eight risk factors which were significantly associated with at least one form of school bullying. The strongest effects indicated that increased parental support and school belonging were associated with lower victimisation, while classroom disorder and school competitiveness were associated with greater victimisation risk. The implications of these findings for future research are discussed.
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    Democracy and belief in conspiracy theories in New Zealand
    (Australian Political Studies Association, 2022) Marques MD; Hill SR; Clarke EJR; Williams M; Ling M; Kerr J; Douglas K; Cichocka A; Sibley C

    The COVID-19 pandemic supercharged the spread of fake news, misinformation, and conspiracy theories worldwide. Using a national probability sample of adults from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study during 2020 (17–99 years old; M = 48.59, SD = 13.86; 63% women, 37% men; N = 41,487), we examined the associations between agreement with general conspiracy beliefs and political indicators of intention to vote and satisfaction with government, alongside political factors including trust in politicians, political efficacy, identity centrality, and political ideology. Left-wing political ideology, trust in politicians, and political efficacy accounted for most of the explained variance in satisfaction with the government. General conspiracy belief was also a unique contributor to lower satisfaction with the government. We also found a curvilinear relationship between political ideology with heightened belief in conspiracies at both ideological extremes and the centre. Findings are discussed in terms of the consequences of conspiracy belief on democratic engagement.