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Item The Effect of Climate Change on Emergence and Evolution of Zoonotic Diseases in Asia(Wiley-VCH GmbH, 2025-09-01) Morris RS; Wada MAs the climate of Asia changes under the influence of global warming, the incidence and spatial distribution of known zoonoses will evolve, and new zoonoses are expected to emerge as a result of greater exposure to organisms which currently occur only in wildlife. In order to evaluate the risks attached to different transmission methods and organism maintenance mechanisms, a classification system is provided which allocates diseases into nine epitypes. All animal diseases and zoonoses recognised as globally important can be categorised into an epitype, or in a few cases more than one epidemiologically distinct epitype. Within each epitype, evidence available on the effects of climatic factors is provided for selected diseases of zoonotic importance to illustrate likely future evolution of these diseases and the extent of currently available evidence for different diseases. Factors which are likely to influence the emergence of novel zoonotic pathogens in Asia are outlined. The range of methods available for analysis, prediction, and evaluation of likely changes in disease occurrence under the influence of climate change has grown rapidly; an introduction is given to the types of tools now available. These methods will need to be integrated into a surveillance and response strategy for Asia, and an approach to achieve this is outlined.Item Zoonotic transmission of asymptomatic carriage Staphylococcus aureus on dairy farms in Canterbury, New Zealand.(Microbiology Society, 2024-12-04) Straub C; Taylor W; French NP; Murdoch DR; Priest P; Anderson T; Scott PZoonotic pathogen transmission is of growing concern globally, with agricultural intensification facilitating interactions between humans, livestock and wild animals. Staphylococcus aureus is a major human pathogen, but it also causes mastitis in dairy cattle, leading to an economic burden on the dairy industry. Here, we investigated transmission within and between cattle and humans, including potential zoonotic transmission of S. aureus isolated from cattle and humans from three dairy farms and an associated primary school in New Zealand. Nasal swabs (N=170) were taken from healthy humans. Inguinal and combined nasal/inguinal swabs were taken from healthy cattle (N=1163). Whole-genome sequencing was performed for 96 S. aureus isolates (44 human and 52 cattle). Multilocus sequence typing and assessments of antimicrobial resistance and virulence were carried out. Potential within- and across-species transmission events were determined based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Thirteen potential transmission clusters were detected, with 12 clusters restricted to within-species and one potential zoonotic transmission cluster (ST5). Potential transmission among cattle was mostly limited to single age groups, likely because different age groups are managed separately on farms. While the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) was low among both bovine and human isolates, the discovery of an extended-spectrum beta-lactamase gene (bla TEM-116) in a bovine isolate was concerning. This study provides evidence around frequency and patterns of potential transmission of S. aureus on dairy farms and highlights the AMR and virulence profile of asymptomatic carriage S. aureus isolates.Item Hantavirus Expansion Trends in Natural Host Populations in Brazil.(MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2024-07-17) Mello JHF; Muylaert RL; Grelle CEV; Kemenesi G; Kurucz KHantaviruses are zoonotic agents responsible for causing Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) in the Americas, with Brazil ranking first in number of confirmed HCPS cases in South America. In this study, we simulate the monthly spread of highly lethal hantavirus in natural hosts by conjugating a Kermack-McCormick SIR model with a cellular automata model (CA), therefore simultaneously evaluating both in-cell and between-cell infection dynamics in host populations, using recently compiled data on main host species abundances and confirmed deaths by hantavirus infection. For both host species, our models predict an increase in the area of infection, with 22 municipalities where no cases have been confirmed to date expected to have at least one case in the next decade, and a reduction in infection in 11 municipalities. Our findings support existing research and reveal new areas where hantavirus is likely to spread within recognized epicenters. Highlighting spatial-temporal trends and potential expansion, we emphasize the increased risk due to pervasive habitat fragmentation and agricultural expansion. Consistent prevention efforts and One Health actions are crucial, especially in newly identified high-risk municipalities.Item Prevention of zoonotic spillover: From relying on response to reducing the risk at source.(Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2023-10-05) Authored by the members of the One Health High-Level Expert Panel (OHHLEP); Markotter W; Mettenleiter TC; Adisasmito WB; Almuhairi S; Barton Behravesh C; Bilivogui P; Bukachi SA; Casas N; Cediel Becerra N; Charron DF; Chaudhary A; Ciacci Zanella JR; Cunningham AA; Dar O; Debnath N; Dungu B; Farag E; Gao GF; Hayman DTS; Khaitsa M; Koopmans MPG; Machalaba C; Mackenzie JS; Morand S; Smolenskiy V; Zhou L; Dvorin JDThe devastating impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on human health globally has prompted extensive discussions on how to better prepare for and safeguard against the next pandemic. Zoonotic spillover of pathogens from animals to humans is recognized as the predominant cause of emerging infectious diseases and as the primary cause of recent pandemics [1]. This spillover risk is increased by a range of factors (called drivers) that impact the nature, frequency, and intensity of contact between humans and wild animals. Many of these drivers are related to human impact, for example, deforestation and changes in land use and agricultural practices. While it is clear that the triad of prevention-preparedness-response (P-P-R) is highly relevant, there is much discussion on which of these 3 strategic activities in the field of emerging infectious disease should be prioritized and how to optimally target resources. For this, it is important to understand the scope of the respective activity and the consequences of prioritization.Item Genomics and eDNA provide a holistic understanding of microbial communities and zoonoses in Aotearoa's waters : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Ecology at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand(Massey University, 2024-03-18) Davis, Meredith TaylorIn Aotearoa, water quality and freshwater ecosystem health is declining. Much of that decline has been blamed on livestock farming and is quantified by using invertebrate communities or Escherichia coli levels. However, the wider microbial community, particularly archaea and eukaryotes, have been overlooked in the current ecosystem health measures. Some of the more well-known impacts of microorganisms on waterways are sporadically measured (e.g., algae blooms, drinking water contamination by faeces, and shellfish toxins) but the drivers of their community structure, both individually and as a whole, in Aotearoa is poorly understood. This thesis is a start at rectifying this knowledge gap. The studies in this thesis were approached with a One Health perspective and provide a quantitative, holistic analysis of microbial communities by investigating three significant challenges facing Aotearoa’s freshwater ecosystems. Those challenges - the spread of waterborne disease, eutrophication, and microbial biogeochemical cycling - were investigated using microbiological cultures and environmental DNA, analysed with metagenomic and other molecular methods. I was able to determine that targeted testing for genetic loci associated with antimicrobial resistance and Shiga toxin-producing E. coli virulence was a useful in monitoring three Canterbury waterways for human health. Furthermore, enteropathogenic human and bovine strains of E. coli appeared unresponsive to in-stream nitrate-nitrogen concentrations of 0, 1, and 3 mg/L and native in-stream biota in microcosms. However, environmentally sourced E.coli imported as part of the in-stream biota survived longer in NO3-N concentrations of 1 and 3 mg /L than at 0 mg/L. Microorganism groups (e.g., archaea, bacteria, and microbial eukaryotes) responded to different environmental, spatio-temporal, and physico-chemical drivers depending on taxonomic level. As a group, lotic pressures and dispersal outweighed other drivers in community structuring. Archaeal communities were highly correlated with Austral season and the most abundant functional groups reflected a likely response to common agricultural pollutants found the Waiotahe catchment and in many rural rivers across Aotearoa (e.g., nitrogen pollution and livestock waste/effluents). The drivers commonly associated with bacterial survival (e.g., conductivity and temperature) were less important than dispersal and lotic pressures, particularly at lower taxonomic levels. Cultured E. coli concentrations from sediment and/or the water column were poorly indicators of Campylobacter, Enterobacter, and Enterococcus relative abundances. Additionally, neither Enterobacter nor Enterococcus relative abundances were correlated with E. coli/E. cloacae group concentrations or Campylobacter relative abundances. These findings have important implications for water quality monitoring and recreational human health risk assessments in Aotearoa. Currently, microbiological water testing is limited to bathing season (i.e., late spring to early autumn) and to culturing either Enterococcus in saline/brackish water or E. coli in freshwater. Effective water quality monitoring must include both water and benthic substrates to accurately portray the entire riverscape. Genetic loci associated with zoonotic human pathogens are present in some of Aotearoa’s waterways and they are likely a result of catchment land use, livestock farming, and effluent contamination. Additionally, genetic loci can be detected with collection methods similar to those employed for current water quality monitoring using Escherichia coli and some molecular methods are more specific (i.e., not proxies). Metagenomic methods allowed for the discernment of microbial communities and core biomes from genetic information extracted from environmental samples. Microbial communities were affected by many different in-stream conditions; however, dispersal and the pressures associated with lotic systems proved to be more important than adjacent land use, precipitation levels, or season. In contrast, archaeal communities were better explained by season. It is clear that water monitoring in Aotearoa needs an overhaul and to incorporate new technology in a thoughtful and ecologically informed manner. A review of the current methods and new technologies should be undertaken by a multi-disciplinary group of experts in the fields of microbiology, epidemiology, and freshwater and microbial ecology. Community buy in and the inclusion of Māori values and indigenous rights should be at the forefront of any proposed changes to freshwater restoration and conservation.Item Absence of Cryptosporidium hominis and dominance of zoonotic Cryptosporidium species in patients after Covid-19 restrictions in Auckland, New Zealand(Cambridge University Press, 2021-09) Knox MA; Garcia-R JC; Ogbuigwe P; Pita A; Velathanthiri N; Hayman DTSCoronavirus disease-2019 (Covid-19) nonpharmaceutical interventions have proven effective control measures for a range of respiratory illnesses throughout the world. These measures, which include isolation, stringent border controls, physical distancing and improved hygiene also have effects on other human pathogens, including parasitic enteric diseases such as cryptosporidiosis. Cryptosporidium infections in humans are almost entirely caused by two species: C. hominis, which is primarily transmitted from human to human, and Cryptosporidium parvum, which is mainly zoonotic. By monitoring Cryptosporidium species and subtype families in human cases of cryptosporidiosis before and after the introduction of Covid-19 control measures in New Zealand, we found C. hominis was completely absent after the first months of 2020 and has remained so until the beginning of 2021. Nevertheless, C. parvum has followed its typical transmission pattern and continues to be widely reported. We conclude that ~7 weeks of isolation during level 3 and 4 lockdown period interrupted the human to human transmission of C. hominis leaving only the primarily zoonotic transmission pathway used by C. parvum. Secondary anthroponotic transmission of C. parvum remains possible among close contacts of zoonotic cases. Ongoing 14-day quarantine measures for new arrivals to New Zealand have likely suppressed new incursions of C. hominis from overseas. Our findings suggest that C. hominis may be controlled or even eradicated through nonpharmaceutical interventions.Item Community health and human-animal contacts on the edges of Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Uganda(PLOS, 2021-11-24) Muylaert RL; Davidson B; Ngabirano A; Kalema-Zikusoka G; MacGregor H; Lloyd-Smith JO; Fayaz A; Knox MA; Hayman DTS; Fèvre ECross-species transmission of pathogens is intimately linked to human and environmental health. With limited healthcare and challenging living conditions, people living in poverty may be particularly susceptible to endemic and emerging diseases. Similarly, wildlife is impacted by human influences, including pathogen sharing, especially for species in close contact with people and domesticated animals. Here we investigate human and animal contacts and human health in a community living around the Bwindi Impenetrable National Park (BINP), Uganda. We used contact and health survey data to identify opportunities for cross-species pathogen transmission, focusing mostly on people and the endangered mountain gorilla. We conducted a survey with background questions and self-reported diaries to investigate 100 participants' health, such as symptoms and behaviours, and contact patterns, including direct contacts and sightings over a week. Contacts were revealed through networks, including humans, domestic, peri-domestic, and wild animal groups for 1) contacts seen in the week of background questionnaire completion, and 2) contacts seen during the diary week. Participants frequently felt unwell during the study, reporting from one to 10 disease symptoms at different intensity levels, with severe symptoms comprising 6.4% of the diary records and tiredness and headaches the most common symptoms. After human-human contacts, direct contact with livestock and peri-domestic animals were the most common. The contact networks were moderately connected and revealed a preference in contacts within the same taxon and within their taxa groups. Sightings of wildlife were much more common than touching. However, despite contact with wildlife being the rarest of all contact types, one direct contact with a gorilla with a timeline including concerning participant health symptoms was reported. When considering all interaction types, gorillas mostly exhibited intra-species contact, but were found to interact with five other species, including people and domestic animals. Our findings reveal a local human population with recurrent symptoms of illness in a location with intense exposure to factors that can increase pathogen transmission, such as direct contact with domestic and wild animals and proximity among animal species. Despite significant biases and study limitations, the information generated here can guide future studies, such as models for disease spread and One Health interventions.Item The future of zoonotic risk prediction(The Royal Society, 2021-11-08) Carlson CJ; Farrell MJ; Grange Z; Han BA; Mollentze N; Phelan AL; Rasmussen AL; Albery GF; Bett B; Brett-Major DM; Cohen LE; Dallas T; Eskew EA; Fagre AC; Forbes KM; Gibb R; Halabi S; Hammer CC; Katz R; Kindrachuk J; Muylaert RL; Nutter FB; Ogola J; Olival KJ; Rourke M; Ryan SJ; Ross N; Seifert SN; Sironen T; Standley CJ; Taylor K; Venter M; Webala PWIn the light of the urgency raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, global investment in wildlife virology is likely to increase, and new surveillance programmes will identify hundreds of novel viruses that might someday pose a threat to humans. To support the extensive task of laboratory characterization, scientists may increasingly rely on data-driven rubrics or machine learning models that learn from known zoonoses to identify which animal pathogens could someday pose a threat to global health. We synthesize the findings of an interdisciplinary workshop on zoonotic risk technologies to answer the following questions. What are the prerequisites, in terms of open data, equity and interdisciplinary collaboration, to the development and application of those tools? What effect could the technology have on global health? Who would control that technology, who would have access to it and who would benefit from it? Would it improve pandemic prevention? Could it create new challenges?Item Detecting genes associated with antimicrobial resistance and pathogen virulence in three New Zealand rivers(PeerJ, Inc, 2021-12-03) Davis M; Midwinter AC; Cosgrove R; Death RG; Oehlmann JThe emergence of clinically significant antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in bacteria is frequently attributed to the use of antimicrobials in humans and livestock and is often found concurrently with human and animal pathogens. However, the incidence and natural drivers of antimicrobial resistance and pathogenic virulence in the environment, including waterways and ground water, are poorly understood. Freshwater monitoring for microbial pollution relies on culturing bacterial species indicative of faecal pollution, but detection of genes linked to antimicrobial resistance and/or those linked to virulence is a potentially superior alternative. We collected water and sediment samples in the autumn and spring from three rivers in Canterbury, New Zealand; sites were above and below reaches draining intensive dairy farming. Samples were tested for loci associated with the AMR-related group 1 CTX-M enzyme production (bla CTX-M) and Shiga toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC). The bla CTX-M locus was only detected during spring and was more prevalent downstream of intensive dairy farms. Loci associated with STEC were detected in both the autumn and spring, again predominantly downstream of intensive dairying. This cross-sectional study suggests that targeted testing of environmental DNA is a useful tool for monitoring waterways. Further studies are now needed to extend our observations across seasons and to examine the relationship between the presence of these genetic elements and the incidence of disease in humans.Item Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife–human interface(Elsevier B.V, 2021-12) Roberts M; Dobson A; Restif O; Wells KThe Covid-19 pandemic is of zoonotic origin, and many other emerging infections of humans have their origin in an animal host population. We review the challenges involved in modelling the dynamics of wildlife–human interfaces governing infectious disease emergence and spread. We argue that we need a better understanding of the dynamic nature of such interfaces, the underpinning diversity of pathogens and host–pathogen association networks, and the scales and frequencies at which environmental conditions enable spillover and host shifting from animals to humans to occur. The major drivers of the emergence of zoonoses are anthropogenic, including the global change in climate and land use. These, and other ecological processes pose challenges that must be overcome to counterbalance pandemic risk. The development of more detailed and nuanced models will provide better tools for analysing and understanding infectious disease emergence and spread.