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    Does the U.S. export inflation? Evidence from the dynamic inflation spillover between the U.S. and EAGLEs
    (Elsevier Inc, 2024-07-02) Nguyen TTT; Pham SD; Li X-M; Do HX
    Given the crucial role of inflation as a key economic barometer, our paper investigates the dynamic inflation spillover between the U.S. and the nine emerging and growth-leading economies (EAGLEs) between 1991M1 and 2020M2. Employing the recently developed time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VAR)-based connectedness approach, we find evidence of a moderate inflation spillover across the sample countries at normal condition. We further point out that inflation spillover effects with the U.S. are more pronounced for the emerging markets with higher openness, the net oil-importing emerging markets, and the emerging markets following free-float exchange rate regimes. More importantly, the inflation spillover index among the system rises dramatically to over 70% under extremely inflationary conditions, implying that the transmission of spiral inflation is very high. Additionally, the time-varying analysis shows that the role of the U.S. in the inflation shock transmission with emerging countries varies between being a net inflation-exporter and inflation-importer over times. Finally, an investigation of the drivers of the inflation spillovers reveals that the U.S. dollar, emerging markets' economic policy uncertainty, and bilateral trade are key determinants of the inflation shock transmission among the system. Our findings justify central banks’ actions in decreasing U.S. dollar reserves to safeguard their domestic currencies.
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    Trade cost and its impact on agri-food trade growth among China, EU and ASEAN : in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of AgriCommerce, Massey University, Palmerstone North, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2017) Fang, Ling
    Trade cost is broadly defined to include all costs incurred in getting a good to a final user other than the marginal cost of producing the good itself. According to Anderson and van Wincoop (2003), a rough estimate of the tax equivalent trade costs for industrialized countries is 170 percent. While compared to industrial products, agricultural goods suffer more from trade cost due to its low value to volume ratio and perishable characteristic as well as high protection in both developed and developing economies. By using the trade cost index developed by Dennis Novy (2013), this study examines the trade costs and its relationship with trade growth among China, EU, and ASEAN in agricultural sector. The results indicate that first, although the bilateral agricultural trade among these three economies have been growing steadily over last fifteen years, their trade costs are still high. In particular, the average trade cost between China and EU is about 633 percent tax equivalent. Secondly, economic growth is still the key driver of trade expansion. The contribution of trade cost reduction varies among trading pairs. In the case of China & ASEAN and EU & ASEAN, its impact is limited. But, in the case of China and EU, it contributes over half of the overall trade growth. Combined with the fact that China now has converted from a net exporter to a net importer of EU’s agricultural products, a further trade liberalization between these two could possibly increase bilateral trade significantly. Thirdly, the reduction of multilateral trade barriers diverts large amount of bilateral trade. The trade diversion effect of regional trade agreement is one possible reason. Finally, compared to distance, which is a static number, the trade cost index has a better explanatory power. It is time sensitive, more comprehensive, and not hard to compute.
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    Asian immigration to New Zealand and the role of networks in international trade : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Applied Economics at Massey University
    (Massey University, 1997) Seiler, Paul
    This study investigates the influence of immigration on international trade, one area in which the frequently-claimed economic benefits of immigration may occur. While the literature reviewed is inconclusive on the existence of net economic benefits resulting from immigration, it identifies personal networks as an important asset of some immigrants, particularly ethnic Chinese. The nature of the personal networks which immigrants are part of, and the role these networks play in international trade, are examined, with particular reference to North Asian immigration to New Zealand. The experiences and opinion of recent immigrants, and others with current experience in immigration and trade, are collected through personal interviews and serve as the data for this work. The findings of this study support claims of the importance of personal networks and identify different methods by which New Zealand benefits from the networks of immigrants. This, together with the knowledge and attributes of immigrants, are assets with value and should be treated as a form of human capital. However, the value of these three is potential in nature and must be acted on for the value to be realised. This work also highlights the critical lack of theoretical and conceptual work on immigration, both of which are prerequisites for sound applied research, informed public debate and competent policy and political decision making. This study offers two small contributions to this shortage, a method for measuring the true level of immigration accurately, something which is not happening currently, and develops a definition for the term "New Zealander," useful in the immigration debate and a requirement for the development of any criteria for citizenship selection.
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    An examination of the methods and effects of restricting external trade : with particular reference to the New Zealand experience (1938-68) : presented to the Faculty of Social Science, Massey University in partial fulfilment of requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy
    (Massey University, 1974) Lane, P. A.
    A notable feature of economic activity since the second world war has been the growth of international trade, which has tended to increase relative dependence on trade, thus placing a larger section of the national economy outside the control of normal monetary and fiscal policy. Thus, between 1960 and 1970, the real G.N.P. of the Industrial Nations of the world increased by just over a half; during the same period the volume of trade of these nations increased by 119%. One of the features of this growth in trade has been an increasing, especially among industrial nations - making exports dependent on a narrower range of goods, more sensitive to market changes. At the same time, a much wider range of importable goods has become available, making a larger section of the internal economy sensitive to the winds of foreign competition. New Zealand has been something of an exception to this rule. Since the war, she has become somewhat less dependent on trade. Her relative dependence, measured as Exports + Imports/Gross Dom. Prod. (current prices, Imports at C.D.V.) was 46.3% in 1950/51, gradually falling to 41.8% in 1960/61, and 36.7% in 1970/71. This is insufficient evidence on which to make too sweeping a generalisation, but it is significant that those nations which had the more liberal trade policies - Japan, Germany, Sweden - experienced pro-trade biased growth, while a country like New Zealand with stringent control policies, had anti-trade biased growth. And economic growth itself was somewhat slower in New Zealand, averaging about 1.5% in real terms during the 1950s, 1.3% in the 1960s.