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    The financial impacts of climate risk : the dissertation presented in fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, PhD in Finance at Massey University, Manawatū, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2025-11-13) Trinh, Hai Hong
    Drawing on state-level data on temperature anomalies, the dissertation contributes to the growing literature on the financial impacts of climate change on US-headquartered firms. Benchmarking long-term climate change, the first two chapters are empirical corporate finance papers examining the impacts of statewide climate change risks on corporate payout policy and the value of firms' financial flexibility. The third chapter is an asset-pricing paper that predicts corporate climate sensitivity of firms’ stocks to state-level climate change as a new systematic risk factor. The first chapter shows that long-term climate change adversely affects corporate dividend payout policy. With state-level temperature anomalies (SLTA), the impacts of climate change on corporate payout are severely persistent when firms are exposed to abnormally warmer temperatures. Cash holdings, trade credit, and market leverage present statistically significant mediating roles in the impacts of long-term climate change on corporate payout policy. The impacts of SLTA on corporate payout are pronounced for firms with higher vulnerability to climate transition risk (e.g., polluting firms) since the Paris Agreement (COP21). Smaller and younger firms and firms with higher tangibility are sensitive to the long-term impacts of climate change across US states. The contributions of the study to related literature are threefold. First, the study shows that the consequences of climate change on firms are chronically severe. With the persistent predicted decrease in dividend policy, climate change affects firms’ growth prospects, with its geographical complexity, escalating earnings uncertainty for firms. Second, the long-term systematic risks of climate change imposed on firms are multifaceted, with high geographical divergence, for which firms might face great challenges in opting for flexible and reliable financing choices in the long-term period. The impacts of SLTA on corporate dividends are persistently robust when the study controls the mediating effects of corporate financial policies and the moderating effects of other climate risk factors. The geographical complexity of long-term climate change impacts on firms is investigated in the second chapter through the lens of corporate financial flexibility. The second chapter shows that long-term climate change is adversely associated with the value of corporate financial flexibility (VOFF). Using the forward-looking and market-based measure, the predicted decrease in VOFF supports evidence from the first chapter by showing that long-term climate change systematically affects firms’ growth opportunities across the US states. The impact of SLTA on firms’ VOFF is persistent for firms with higher market-to-book values and larger firms. The impacts of long-term climate change on the VOFF are robust when the study controls the mediating effects of financial policies and the joint effects of other climate-related externalities. The third chapter estimates the state-level corporate climate sensitivity (SL-CCS) to temperature anomalies. Using the predicted SL-CCS for each firm’s stock, the study examines whether the financial market is pricing the SL-CCS betas as a new systematic risk factor. The broad findings show that the pricing of financial markets to the SL-CCS betas is conditional on the levels of global warming across the US states. Investors demand a premium when firms’ stocks are exposed to abnormally warmer temperatures; otherwise, there is a negative association between SL-CCS betas and firms’ stock returns (RET). The varying associations between SL-CCS betas and RET are aligned with our predictions when the study tests for other endogenous and exogenous climate-related risk factors.
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    Construction projects status tracking : a real-time data-driven framework for delay management and analysis : a thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Building and Construction, School of Built Environment, College of Science, Massey University, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2025-10-16) Radman, Kambiz
    Construction delays remain one of the most critical challenges in project delivery, often resulting in cost overruns, schedule slippages, and weakened stakeholder confidence. Traditional delay management methods are largely reactive, relying on periodic reporting and fragmented communication across project teams. In contrast, the increasing availability of digital tools offers the opportunity to adopt more proactive, data-driven approaches. This study introduces a framework that centralises and analyses real-time project data from multiple stakeholders, including head contractors, subcontractors, consultants (via Building Information Modelling—BIM), and on-site teams. By integrating these diverse inputs into a unified Power BI dashboard, the framework enhances early detection of delays, improves coordination, and supports timely decision-making. Earned Value (EV) metrics are embedded as key control points, providing early signals of deviations and potential risks. Despite these advances, several research gaps remain. Existing systems are often costly and complex, highlighting the need for simple, inexpensive, and user-friendly solutions. Real-time data acquisition and centralisation are still underdeveloped, limiting the speed and reliability of insights. Current practice focuses heavily on retrospective reporting, with limited capability for real-time analytics or predictive forecasting. Stakeholder communication and coordination remain fragmented, while systematic early notification systems for emerging delays are rarely implemented. Ultimately, it is necessary to integrate historical and real-time data to facilitate predictive delay analytics. Addressing these gaps would help shift construction delay management from reactive intervention towards proactive risk mitigation. Guided by these gaps, the research is shaped around three central questions: (1) What causes delays in major construction projects, and how do these delays affect stakeholder collaboration? (2) How are digital technologies currently being deployed to improve project performance in relation to delays and risks? (3) How can a new framework be designed and evaluated to strengthen early delay detection and enhance project outcomes? To answer these questions, five objectives are established. First, to identify and analyse the key project stakeholders and the principal causes of delay. Second, to review and assess the role of digital technologies in construction projects. Third, to develop a framework that integrates real-time data for enhanced monitoring, reporting, and early detection of delays. Finally, to evaluate this framework in practice, assess its effectiveness in enhancing transparency, facilitating stakeholder coordination, and improving overall project performance. In doing so, this research contributes to the advancement of digital construction management by embedding real-time analytics into live project environments. The proposed framework not only enhances transparency and resource allocation but also lays the groundwork for predictive delay management, thereby aligning construction practices with the broader objectives of Industry 4.0.
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    Sherpas and Sagarmatha: complexity theory, ‘Edge of Chaos’ and implications for tourism risk management
    (Taylor and Francis Group, 2024-10-15) Schweinsberg S; Hall CM
    Sagarmatha (Everest) has long been recognised as one of the principal goals of global adventure tourism. Supported by high-altitude workers, paying climbers on Sagarmatha have the opportunity to tread in the footsteps of colonial pioneers such as George Mallory and Sir Edmund Hillary. Ever since the first attempt was made to summit Sagarmatha there has been an appreciation amongst the climbing community of the risks involved. However, approaches to risk management on Sagarmatha have often not considered the social and cultural circumstances around a climbing expedition’s relationship to its local support staff. This paper uses the notion of an ‘edge of chaos’ to explore the evolving relationship between climbers and other stakeholders on Sagarmatha. Then, through reference to Holling's (2001) adaptive cycle and concept of panarchy, we consider on what basis might one stakeholder on Sagarmatha impose a greater risk burden on another stakeholder.
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    From COBIT to ISO 42001: Evaluating cybersecurity frameworks for opportunities, risks, and regulatory compliance in commercializing large language models
    (Elsevier B.V., 2024-09-01) McIntosh TR; Susnjak T; Liu T; Watters P; Xu D; Liu D; Nowrozy R; Halgamuge MN
    This study investigated the integration readiness of four predominant cybersecurity Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) frameworks – NIST CSF 2.0, COBIT 2019, ISO 27001:2022, and the latest ISO 42001:2023 – for the opportunities, risks, and regulatory compliance when adopting Large Language Models (LLMs), using qualitative content analysis and expert validation. Our analysis, with both LLMs and human experts in the loop, uncovered potential for LLM integration together with inadequacies in LLM risk oversight of those frameworks. Comparative gap analysis has highlighted that the new ISO 42001:2023, specifically designed for Artificial Intelligence (AI) management systems, provided most comprehensive facilitation for LLM opportunities, whereas COBIT 2019 aligned most closely with the European Union AI Act. Nonetheless, our findings suggested that all evaluated frameworks would benefit from enhancements to more effectively and more comprehensively address the multifaceted risks associated with LLMs, indicating a critical and time-sensitive need for their continuous evolution. We propose integrating human-expert-in-the-loop validation processes as crucial for enhancing cybersecurity frameworks to support secure and compliant LLM integration, and discuss implications for the continuous evolution of cybersecurity GRC frameworks to support the secure integration of LLMs.
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    Risk identification and allocation in public-private partnerships : a New Zealand perspective : a thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Construction Management, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2024-06-13) Rasheed, Nasir
    Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) have become a prevalent solution for funding infrastructure projects amid declining public reserves. Despite their widespread adoption, not all PPP projects prove successful, often due to inadequate risk management. Recognizing the expertise of the private sector, including the New Zealand government, PPPs are increasingly utilized. However, there is a scarcity of specific research on PPPs in the local context, particularly in social infrastructure using the Design-Build-Finance-Maintain-Operate (DBFMO) delivery method. This thesis aims to address this gap by establishing a framework for improving risk management outcomes in New Zealand's PPP infrastructure projects, focusing on critical success factors, empirical investigations into risk identification, and the development and validation of a Fuzzy based risk allocation model to inform stakeholders' decisions. This research employed two distinct questionnaire surveys targeting industry experts from both public and private sectors, all possessing relevant experience in the local industry and PPP procurement. Given the absence of a precise population, a combination of convenience and judgment sampling, was utilized. A total of 43 and 58 PPP experts provided valid responses to two questionnaires. The sample size was considered appropriate, especially considering the relatively recent adoption of PPP in New Zealand. Additionally, comparisons were made with similar studies that employed questionnaire surveys to ensure validity. The collected data underwent various statistical analyses, including mean score analysis, Cronbach's alpha reliability analysis, independent sample t-test, and factor analysis. Subsequently, the fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) method was applied to model risk allocation. In addition, the study included a set of semi-structured interviews to provide a practical and policy-making context for the research. Critical success factor rankings established through mean scores revealed approval and negotiation process, innovation and project complexity, client’s brief, project’s technical feasibility and strong private consortium to be five top ranked factors out of the 27 identified. Similarly, the top three risk allocation criteria (RAC) having very high importance (mean score greater than 4 on a scale of 5) were risk foresight, response to risk and minimise risk loss. Furthermore, factor analysis showed that the 9 identified RAC can be classified into three component groups namely risk management expertise, core risk management capability and risk management strategy. Recognizing the importance of principle of risk allocation, the proposed fuzzy based risk allocation model took into account the risk management capability of public and private sector. FSE was chosen for its adeptness in handling intricate multi-faceted challenges, particularly in the context of risk distribution decisions that involve the inherent vagueness within human cognitive processes. Due to their contentious nature in literature and different PPP projects, 16 risk were carefully chosen to be allocated via the model from a list of 35 risks initially identified. The findings indicate that for 12 of the risks, the distribution proportions between the government and the private sector are comparable. Risks associated with land acquisition and public opposition are predominantly assigned to the public sector, while risks linked to unforeseen geotechnical conditions and financing are predominantly allotted to the private sector. The results were validated using six interviews with highly experienced professionals within the New Zealand PPP scene. The outcomes of this study are anticipated to guide policymakers in formulating effective strategies for assigning risks and devising well-balanced risk sharing arrangements within PPP contracts, to achieve outcomes mutually agreeable to both the public and private sectors, ultimately enhancing the uptake of PPP projects.
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    Volcanic air pollution and human health: recent advances and future directions
    (Springer Nature Switzerland AG on behalf of the International Association of Volcanology & Chemistry of the Earth's Interior, 2022-01) Stewart C; Damby DE; Horwell CJ; Elias T; Ilyinskaya E; Tomašek I; Longo BM; Schmidt A; Carlsen HK; Mason E; Baxter PJ; Cronin S; Witham C
    Volcanic air pollution from both explosive and effusive activity can affect large populations as far as thousands of kilometers away from the source, for days to decades or even centuries. Here, we summarize key advances and prospects in the assessment of health hazards, effects, risk, and management. Recent advances include standardized ash assessment methods to characterize the multiple physicochemical characteristics that might influence toxicity; the rise of community-based air quality monitoring networks using low-cost gas and particulate sensors; the development of forecasting methods for ground-level concentrations and associated public advisories; the development of risk and impact assessment methods to explore health consequences of future eruptions; and the development of evidence-based, locally specific measures for health protection. However, it remains problematic that the health effects of many major and sometimes long-duration eruptions near large populations have gone completely unmonitored. Similarly, effects of prolonged degassing on exposed populations have received very little attention relative to explosive eruptions. Furthermore, very few studies have longitudinally followed populations chronically exposed to volcanic emissions; thus, knowledge gaps remain about whether chronic exposures can trigger development of potentially fatal diseases. Instigating such studies will be facilitated by continued co-development of standardized protocols, supporting local study teams and procuring equipment, funding, and ethical permissions. Relationship building between visiting researchers and host country academic, observatory, and agency partners is vital and can, in turn, support the effective communication of health impacts of volcanic air pollution to populations, health practitioners, and emergency managers.
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    Risk management by entrepreneurial and non-entrepreneurial micro and small-scale firms in the agriculture food-processing sector in Sri Lanka : a mixed method approach : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor in Philosophy in Agribusiness at Massey University, Manawatu, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2023) Ganegoda Hewage, Ishara Anjalee
    Risk, risk-taking, and risk management have been identified as integral components of entrepreneurship since the inception of the concept of entrepreneurship. However, the relationship between these components still puzzles scholars as different scholars have presented often contrasting theoretical notions and empirical findings regarding how entrepreneurial firms take and manage risk. Despite the importance of risk in entrepreneurship, the attention given to risk management and the adoption of specific risk management strategies is limited in the research literature. The firms operating in the MSME sector play a vital role in economic development in developing countries, particularly in Sri Lanka. The term entrepreneurship is frequently associated and investigated along with the term MSMEs where many researchers have used these two terms synonymously or alternatively. Literature supports the notion that entrepreneurial firms and small businesses are related but they are two different entities with distinctive features. However, the lack of specific criteria to differentiate between the two firm groups is identified as a major hindrance in the sector that negatively affects the development of beneficial policies and scholarly work. With the above questions identified, the overarching research question of this study is; “Do the entrepreneurial micro and small-scale (MSE) firms in the agriculture food processing sector in Sri Lanka manage the risks they face any differently from other MSEs operating in the sector?”. To address this question first it was necessary to assure the existence of such entrepreneurial firms within the sector. For that, the study devised a method to differentiate entrepreneurial firms from their non-entrepreneurial counterparts. Moreover, the study also aimed to investigate the factors that determine the differing risk management behaviour of these MSEs operating in the agriculture food processing sector in Sri Lanka. The research process began with a preliminary study to investigate the context of agriculture food processing MSEs in Sri Lanka. With the support of the findings of the preliminary study and the literature, the five-dimensional Entrepreneurial Orientation approach (i.e. innovativeness, proactiveness, risk-taking, competitive aggressiveness, and autonomy) was identified as the best-fitting method to differentiate between the two firm groups. Upon confirming the existence of entrepreneurial and non-entrepreneurial firms in the sector, the study adopted an exploratory sequential mixed-method approach consisting of two phases; a qualitative phase with selected case firms to explore the nature of their EO followed by a quantitative phase with survey data to investigate the risk management behaviour of a population of these firms. The qualitative phase was conducted with four selected case firms; two entrepreneurial and two non-entrepreneurial to explore the level and nature of EO. The quantitative data were gathered from a sample of 206 MSEs using a structured, researcher-administered questionnaire. The results confirmed that entrepreneurial firms do exist in the agriculture food processing sector in Sri Lanka. Proactiveness, innovativeness, risk-taking, and competitive aggressiveness were identified as the more suitable EO dimensions that can be used to identify and differentiate between entrepreneurial and non-entrepreneurial firms in the Sri Lankan context, with autonomy being identified as not strongly contributing to this differentiation. The study agrees with the existing body of literature on “entrepreneurs are risk takers”, yet goes much beyond of this common notion to prove that they are not only they are risk takers, but also better risk managers compared to their non-entrepreneurial counterparts. The uniqueness of this study is that it has not inly investigated the risk management behaviour of entrepreneurial small firms but also comapred it with a group of non-entreprneurial firms. Quantitative study found significant differences between entrepreneurial and non-entrepreneurial firms in terms of their adoption of risk management strategies. More entrepreneurial firms adopted knowledge-related, strategic, and product price-related market risk management strategies compared to non-entrepreneurial firms. This was also found in the qualitative phase where the entrepreneurial firms were more proactive and showed a notable orientation toward adopting strategic, and knowledge-related, risk management strategies. The two firm groups showed clear differences in their propensities to risk, with two categories of risk propensities identified as entrepreneurial risk (seeking) propensity attributes and non-entrepreneurial risk (averting) propensity attributes. The entrepreneurial risk (seeking) attributes were found to strongly contribute to the differentiation between entrepreneurial and non-entrepreneurial MSEs while the adoption of strategic and knowledge-related risk management strategies was negatively affected by the non-entrepreneurial risk (averting) propensity. Investigating how sources of risk are perceived, both as opportunities and threats, for both entrepreneurial and non-entrepreneurial firms was another important contribution of this study. The results highlighted that the entrepreneurial group perceived more opportunities arising from the sources of risk than the non-entrepreneurial group, with both groups perceiving the threats in a similar manner. Having a proper identification of entrepreneurial and non-entrepreneurial firms is useful for policymakers to devise their policies more strategically. Finally, this study expands the current understanding of entrepreneurial/non-entrepreneurial firms, especially in terms of strategic planning and knowledge-orientation of entrepreneurial firms in managing risks, risk propensity, and perceiving different sources of risks based on the strong foundation of their proactive and opportunity-oriented nature.
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    Risk management portfolios in New Zealand dairy farming : a dissertation presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of PhD in Agribusiness at Massey University, Manawatu, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2022) Khatami, Koohyar
    New Zealand’s dairy farming sector has changed dramatically over the last two decades. As a result of growth in global demand, dairy farms have become more intensive in production, more capital-intensive and have more debt. These changes increase the vulnerability of the dairy farmers to risks and uncertainties arising from various sources such as input prices, output prices, climatic conditions, and policy changes. In response to these uncertainties, dairy farmers utilise various sets of risk management strategies, henceforth known as portfolios of risk management strategies. Previous studies have created a solid foundation for understanding dairy farms’ responses to risk. In particular, they found that debt management and planning for capital spending are the two most important risk management strategies for New Zealand dairy farmers. However, little is known about what entails debt management and planning for capital spending from farmers’ perspective. Hence, little is known about the diversity of risk management portfolios that New Zealand dairy farmers utilise to manage risks. By extending the definition of portfolio of risk management strategies into the financial risk management space, this study was one of the first studies that provides a synthesis of farm business risk management and farm financial risk management through the perspective of a risk management portfolio. Six portfolios of risk management strategies were identified, each of which has a different mix of risk management strategies and implications for the overall business strategy. The results also showed that a range of farm and farmers characteristics shape NZ dairy farmers’ portfolio of risk management strategies. The range and complexity of financial management strategies identified in this study suggest that traditional financial management literature can benefit from insights gained from the empirical studies. The results provided the industry people such as rural consultants, policy makers, and banking sector much-needed insights into the risk management portfolios used by dairy farmers.
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    Aligning interests : the impact of CEO compensation schemes on corporate executive behaviour and the cost of debt : a thesis presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Finance, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2022) Manu O'uiha, Sulueti Tupoutu'a Lawai
    A key element of corporate governance is executive compensation. This study examines the effectiveness of two compensation methods for chief executives: inside debt and vesting equity. In essay one, inside debt aligns management incentives with inside bondholder incentives (since they both hold debt), resulting in less risky corporate policies and reducing corporate risk-taking. This study shows empirically that inside debt is associated with less problematic situations (i.e., small earnings declines), less real activity spending cuts (such as marketing and R&D research), and lower yield spreads on corporate bonds. In essay two, company executives and bond investors are concerned about short-term prices. When executives’ compensation includes vesting equity, their interests are aligned. In this study, vesting equity reduces the cost of debt. Among the two components of vesting equity, the option lowers costs of debt, while stock keep costs high. The results suggest investors view vesting options as the best way to align executives’ and bondholders’ interests. Vesting equity may also reduce risk-taking activities, affecting bond prices. In summary, the results show that bondholders are aware of the risk-taking and risk-avoidance incentives created by executive compensation schemes. Inside debt and vesting equity strengthen and align executive interests with those of inside and external bondholders.
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    Perceived risk, risk tolerance and trust in debt decisions : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Finance at Massey University, Manawatu, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2020) Phung, Trang Thai Minh
    The perceived risk of stock investment, risk tolerance and trust play important roles in the stock market and in use of debt for stock investment, yet the relationship between these has received little attention. This thesis examines these direct and indirect relationships using three independent essays using structural equation modelling as the main technique. Vietnam is used as an illustrative example, as the use of informal borrowing is common. This thesis surveyed 420 Vietnamese individual investors and found the following results. Essay One finds that the perceived risk is positively associated with borrowing sources and the use of informal debt. Leverage risk and opportunity risk also directly relate to borrowing sources. Borrowing sources is positively related to perceived risk and debt decisions. Perceived risk is a mediator between borrowing sources and informal debt, and borrowing sources act as a mediator between perceived risk and debt decisions. The results of Essay Two show that risk tolerance has a direct relationship to the use of financial leverage, while investment horizons are related to the use of informal debt. Risk tolerance positively relates to the use of informal debt and mediates between investment horizons and debt decisions among stockbrokers. In Essay Three, the results reveal that there is a significantly positive relationship between trust in the stock market, and trading frequency and the use of informal debt. Trust in stockbrokers and brokerage firms are directly related to the use of informal debt. Trading frequency is also positively associated with trust in the stock market and the use of financial leverage. Trust is a mediator between trading frequency and informal debt, and trading frequency acts as a mediator between trust and financial leverage. Findings from this thesis will help provide useful insights into investors’ behaviour and its impact on debt decisions for stock investment amongst individual investors, users and non-users of informal and formal borrowing, stockbrokers and non-stockbrokers, male and female investors in the Vietnam stock market and other stock markets.