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Forecasting Range Shifts in Terrestrial Alpine Insects Under Global Warming
(John Wiley and Sons Incorporated, Hoboken, New Jersey, 2025-01) Meza-Joya FL; Morgan-Richards M; Trewick SA
Anthropogenic planetary heating is disrupting global alpine systems, but our ability to empirically measure and predict responses in alpine species distributions is impaired by a lack of comprehensive data and technical limitations. We conducted a comprehensive, semi-quantitative review of empirical studies on contemporary range shifts in alpine insects driven by climate heating, drawing attention to methodological issues and potential biotic and abiotic factors influencing variation in responses. We highlight case studies showing how range dynamics may affect standing genetic variation and adaptive potential and discuss how data integration frameworks can improve forecasts. Although biotic and abiotic factors influence individual species responses, most alpine insects studied so far are shifting to higher elevations. Upslope shifts are often accompanied by range contractions that are expected to diminish species genetic variation and adaptive potential, increasing extinction risk. Endemic species on islands are predicted to be especially vulnerable. Inferences drawn from the responses of alpine insects, also have relevance to species in other montane habitats. Correlative niche modelling is a keystone tool to predict range responses to planetary heating, but its limited ability to consider biological processes underpinning species' responses complicates interpretation. Alpine insects exhibit some potential to respond to rising temperatures via genetic change or phenotypic plasticity. Thus, future efforts should incorporate biological processes by using flexible hybrid niche modelling approaches to enhance the biological realism of predictions. Boosting scientific capability to envisage the future of alpine environments and their associated biota is imperative given that the speed and intensity of heating on high-mountain ecosystems can surpass our ability to collect the empirical data required to guide effective conservation planning and management decisions.
Key traits for ruminant livestock across diverse production systems in the context of climate change: perspectives from a global platform of research farms
(CSIRO Publishing, 2021-01-08) Rivero MJ; Lopez-Villalobos N; Evans A; Berndt A; Cartmill A; Neal AL; McLaren A; Farruggia A; Mignolet C; Chadwick D; Styles D; McCracken D; Busch D; Martin GB; Fleming H; Sheridan H; Gibbons J; Merbold L; Eisler M; Lambe N; Rovira P; Harris P; Murphy P; Vercoe PE; Williams P; MacHado R; Takahashi T; Puech T; Boland T; Ayala W; Lee MRF
Ruminant livestock are raised under diverse cultural and environmental production systems around the globe. Ruminant livestock can play a critical role in food security by supplying high-quality, nutrient-dense food with little or no competition for arable land while simultaneously improving soil health through vital returns of organic matter. However, in the context of climate change and limited land resources, the role of ruminant-based systems is uncertain because of their reputed low efficiency of feed conversion (kilogram of feed required per kilogram of product) and the production of methane as a by-product of enteric fermentation. A growing human population will demand more animal protein, which will put greater pressure on the Earth's planetary boundaries and contribute further to climate change. Therefore, livestock production globally faces the dual challenges of mitigating emissions and adapting to a changing climate. This requires research-led animal and plant breeding and feeding strategies to optimise ruminant systems. This study collated information from a global network of research farms reflecting a variety of ruminant production systems in diverse regions of the globe. Using this information, key changes in the genetic and nutritional approaches relevant to each system were drawn that, if implemented, would help shape more sustainable future ruminant livestock systems.
Do hotter temperatures increase the incidence of self-harm hospitalisations?
(Routledge, 2016) Williams MN; Hill SR; Spicer J
A relationship between air temperature and the incidence of suicide has been established in a number of previous studies. Interestingly, the relationship between geographical variation in temperature and suicide incidence has generally been found to be negative, while the relationship between temporal variation in temperature and suicide incidence has generally been found to be positive. It is less clear, however, how temperature relates to the incidence of self-harm. This topic is of particular importance given the presence of ongoing global warming. This study investigated the relationship between temperature and the incidence of self-harm resulting in hospitalisation in New Zealand. Self-harm hospitalisations by date and district for 1993-2009 were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Meteorological data was obtained from NIWA. Generalised linear mixed models were used to estimate the effects of three different components of variation in temperature: geographical, seasonal and irregular. Irregular (random) daily variation in temperature had a modest positive relationship with the incidence of acts of self-harm resulting in hospitalisation, with about 0.7% extra incidents for every 1 °C increase in temperature. However, there was no strong evidence for a positive effect of either seasonal or geographical variation in temperature. We conclude that temperature does appear to bear some relation to the incidence of self-harm, with irregular daily variation in temperature having a positive effect. However, inconsistencies in the effects of different components of variation in temperature make it challenging to accurately predict how global warming will influence the incidence of self-harm.

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