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Subject: search.filters.subject.African Swine Fever

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    Is transportation a risk factor for African swine fever transmission in Australia: a review
    (John Wiley and Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australian Veterinary Association, 2021-11-02) Neumann EJ; Hall WF; Dahl J; Hamilton D; Kurian A
    African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease of the pigs that was first described in Africa during the early part of the twentieth century. The disease has periodically occurred outside of Africa, including an ongoing epidemic in Europe and Asia that started in 2007; the disease has never occurred in Australia or New Zealand. Once introduced into a country, spread can occur through direct and indirect routes of transmission. Infected feral pig populations have the potential to act as a long-term reservoir for the virus, making eradication difficult. Just before and throughout the period of clinical signs, ASF virus is shed in oronasal fluids, urine, faeces and blood. This results in contamination of the pig's environment, including flooring, equipment and vehicles. Transportation-related risk factors therefore are likely to play an important role in ASF spread, though evidence thus far has been largely anecdotal. In addition to the existing AUSVETPLAN ASF plan, efforts should be made to improve transportation biosecurity, from the time a pig leaves the farm to its destination. Collection of data that could quantify the capabilities and capacity of Australia to clean and disinfect livestock trucks would help to determine if private and/or public sector investment should be made in this area of biosecurity. No peer-reviewed research was identified that described a specific process for cleaning and disinfecting a livestock truck known to be contaminated with ASF virus, though literature suggests that transportation is an important route of transmission for moving the virus between farms and countries.
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    The African swine fever modelling challenge: Model comparison and lessons learnt
    (Elsevier BV, 2022-09) Ezanno P; Picault S; Bareille S; Beaunée G; Boender GJ; Dankwa EA; Deslandes F; Donnelly CA; Hagenaars TJ; Hayes S; Jori F; Lambert S; Mancini M; Munoz F; Pleydell DRJ; Thompson RN; Vergu E; Vignes M; Vergne T
    Robust epidemiological knowledge and predictive modelling tools are needed to address challenging objectives, such as: understanding epidemic drivers; forecasting epidemics; and prioritising control measures. Often, multiple modelling approaches can be used during an epidemic to support effective decision making in a timely manner. Modelling challenges contribute to understanding the pros and cons of different approaches and to fostering technical dialogue between modellers. In this paper, we present the results of the first modelling challenge in animal health - the ASF Challenge - which focused on a synthetic epidemic of African swine fever (ASF) on an island. The modelling approaches proposed by five independent international teams were compared. We assessed their ability to predict temporal and spatial epidemic expansion at the interface between domestic pigs and wild boar, and to prioritise a limited number of alternative interventions. We also compared their qualitative and quantitative spatio-temporal predictions over the first two one-month projection phases of the challenge. Top-performing models in predicting the ASF epidemic differed according to the challenge phase, host species, and in predicting spatial or temporal dynamics. Ensemble models built using all team-predictions outperformed any individual model in at least one phase. The ASF Challenge demonstrated that accounting for the interface between livestock and wildlife is key to increasing our effectiveness in controlling emerging animal diseases, and contributed to improving the readiness of the scientific community to face future ASF epidemics. Finally, we discuss the lessons learnt from model comparison to guide decision making.