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    Development of a Bayesian event tree for short-term eruption onset forecasting at Taupō volcano
    (Elsevier BV, 2022-12) Scott E; Bebbington M; Wilson T; Kennedy B; Leonard G
    Taupō volcano, located within the Taupō Volcanic Zone (TVZ) in the central North Island of Aotearoa-New Zealand, is one of the world's most active silicic caldera systems. Silicic calderas such as Taupō are capable of a broad and complex range of volcanological activity, ranging from minor unrest episodes to large destructive supereruptions. A critical tool for volcanic risk management is eruption forecasting. The Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) is one probabilistic eruption forecasting tool that can be used to produce short-term eruption forecasts for any volcano worldwide. A BET_EF model is developed for Taupō volcano, informed by geologic and historic data. Monitoring parameters for the model were obtained through a structured expert elicitation workshop with 30 of Aotearoa-New Zealand's volcanologists and volcano monitoring scientists. The eruption probabilities output by the BET_EF model for Taupō volcano's 17 recorded unrest episodes (between 1877 and 2019) were examined. We found time-inhomogeneity in the probabilities stemming from both the changes over time in the monitoring network around Taupō volcano and increasing level of past data (number of non-eruptive unrest episodes). We examine the former issue through the lens of the latest episodes, and the latter by re-running the episodes assuming knowledge of all 16 other episodes (calibration to 2021 data). The time variable monitoring network around Taupō volcano and parameter weights had a substantial impact on the estimated probabilities of magmatic unrest and eruption. We also note the need for improved monitoring and data processing at Taupō volcano, the existence of which would prompt updates and therefore refinements in the BET_EF model.
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    Eruption cycles and magmatic processes at a reawakening volcano, Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Earth Science at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2008) Turner, Michael Bruce
    Realistic probabilistic hazard forecasts for re-awakening volcanoes rely on making an accurate estimation of their past eruption frequency and magnitude for a period long enough to view systematic changes or evolution. Adding an in-depth knowledge of the local underlying magmatic or tectonic driving processes allows development of even more robust eruption forecasting models. Holocene tephra records preserved within lacustrine sediments and soils on and surrounding the andesitic stratovolcano of Mt. Taranaki (Egmont Volcano), New Zealand, were used to 1) compile an eruption catalogue that minimises bias to carry out frequency analysis, and 2) identify magmatic processes responsible for variations in activity of this intermittently awakening volcano. A new, highly detailed eruption history for Mt. Taranaki was compiled from sediment sequences containing Holocene tephra layers preserved beneath Lakes Umutekai and Rotokare, NE and SE of the volcano’s summit, respectively, with age control provided by radiocarbon dating. To combine the two partly concurrent tephra records both geochemistry (on titanomagnetite) and statistical measures of event concurrence were applied. Similarly, correlation was made to proximal pyroclastic sequences in all sectors around the 2518 m-high edifice. This record was used to examine geochemical variations (through titanomagnetite and bulk chemistry) at Mt. Taranaki in unprecedented sampling detail. To develop an unbiased sampling of eruption event frequency, a technique was developed to distinguish explosive, pumice-forming eruptions from dome-forming events recorded in medial ash as fine-grade ash layers. Recognising that exsolution lamellae in titanomagnetite result from oxidation processes within lava domes or plugs, their presence within ash deposits was used to distinguish falls elutriated from blockand- ash flows. These deposits are focused in particular catchments and are hence difficult to sample comprehensively. Excluding these events from temporal eruption records, the remaining, widespread pumice layers of sub-plinian eruptions at a single site of Lake Umutekai presented the lowest-bias sampling of the overall event frequency. The annual eruption frequency of Mt. Taranaki was found to be strongly cyclic with a 1500-2000 year periodicity. Titanomagnetite, glass and whole-rock chemistry of eruptives from Mt. Taranaki’s Holocene history all display distinctive compositional cycles that correspond precisely with the event frequency curve for this volcano. Furthermore, the largest known eruptions from the volcano involve the most strongly evolved magmas of their cycle and occur during the eruptive-frequency minimum, preceding the longest repose intervals known. Petrological evidence reveals a two-stage system of magma differentiation and assembly operating at Mt. Taranaki. Each of the identified 1500-2000 year cycles represent isolated magma batches that evolved at depth at the base of the crust before periodically feeding a mid-upper crustal magma storage system.