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    Risk identification and allocation in public-private partnerships : a New Zealand perspective : a thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Construction Management, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2024-06-13) Rasheed, Nasir
    Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) have become a prevalent solution for funding infrastructure projects amid declining public reserves. Despite their widespread adoption, not all PPP projects prove successful, often due to inadequate risk management. Recognizing the expertise of the private sector, including the New Zealand government, PPPs are increasingly utilized. However, there is a scarcity of specific research on PPPs in the local context, particularly in social infrastructure using the Design-Build-Finance-Maintain-Operate (DBFMO) delivery method. This thesis aims to address this gap by establishing a framework for improving risk management outcomes in New Zealand's PPP infrastructure projects, focusing on critical success factors, empirical investigations into risk identification, and the development and validation of a Fuzzy based risk allocation model to inform stakeholders' decisions. This research employed two distinct questionnaire surveys targeting industry experts from both public and private sectors, all possessing relevant experience in the local industry and PPP procurement. Given the absence of a precise population, a combination of convenience and judgment sampling, was utilized. A total of 43 and 58 PPP experts provided valid responses to two questionnaires. The sample size was considered appropriate, especially considering the relatively recent adoption of PPP in New Zealand. Additionally, comparisons were made with similar studies that employed questionnaire surveys to ensure validity. The collected data underwent various statistical analyses, including mean score analysis, Cronbach's alpha reliability analysis, independent sample t-test, and factor analysis. Subsequently, the fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) method was applied to model risk allocation. In addition, the study included a set of semi-structured interviews to provide a practical and policy-making context for the research. Critical success factor rankings established through mean scores revealed approval and negotiation process, innovation and project complexity, client’s brief, project’s technical feasibility and strong private consortium to be five top ranked factors out of the 27 identified. Similarly, the top three risk allocation criteria (RAC) having very high importance (mean score greater than 4 on a scale of 5) were risk foresight, response to risk and minimise risk loss. Furthermore, factor analysis showed that the 9 identified RAC can be classified into three component groups namely risk management expertise, core risk management capability and risk management strategy. Recognizing the importance of principle of risk allocation, the proposed fuzzy based risk allocation model took into account the risk management capability of public and private sector. FSE was chosen for its adeptness in handling intricate multi-faceted challenges, particularly in the context of risk distribution decisions that involve the inherent vagueness within human cognitive processes. Due to their contentious nature in literature and different PPP projects, 16 risk were carefully chosen to be allocated via the model from a list of 35 risks initially identified. The findings indicate that for 12 of the risks, the distribution proportions between the government and the private sector are comparable. Risks associated with land acquisition and public opposition are predominantly assigned to the public sector, while risks linked to unforeseen geotechnical conditions and financing are predominantly allotted to the private sector. The results were validated using six interviews with highly experienced professionals within the New Zealand PPP scene. The outcomes of this study are anticipated to guide policymakers in formulating effective strategies for assigning risks and devising well-balanced risk sharing arrangements within PPP contracts, to achieve outcomes mutually agreeable to both the public and private sectors, ultimately enhancing the uptake of PPP projects.
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    Enhancing multi-hazard resilience to tsunami through evacuation simulation : a case study of Napier City : a thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Construction Management, School of Built Environment, Massey University, New Zealand. EMBARGOED to 11 July 2026.
    (Massey University, 2023-09-12) Fathianpour, Azin
    Climate change has intensified the risk of natural hazards, especially tsunamis. This fact has led emergency management decision-makers to question their emergency planning and make coastal cities resilient. Evacuation has been identified as the best course of action in response to tsunamis. Regarding tsunamis, a resilient city must have a resilient evacuation plan. An evacuation plan can be called resilient once all the related infrastructures are resilient and people know how to use them. Based on the literature, simulation has been identified as a reliable source of assessing the resiliency level of infrastructure. Therefore, this doctoral thesis aims to create an evacuation simulation tool that evaluates the resilience of evacuation infrastructure. Recognising the importance of understanding the resilience of the evacuation process in terms of disaster management, current research and practice continually highlight the significance of simulation outputs concerning tsunami responses. Previous evacuation simulation tools primarily focused on monitoring pedestrian movements, neglecting interactions between pedestrians and vehicles. Furthermore, many studies did not consider factors related to human behaviour and decision-making during crises. This study aims to provide fresh insights into evacuation management by incorporating multiple behavioural and spatial factors into the simulation. The outcomes of this research generated realistic evacuation simulation results and translated them into policy and planning protocols.
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    Infrastructure planning emergency levels of service for the Wellington region, Aotearoa New Zealand : a thesis presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology (Emergency Management) at Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2024-06-07) Mowll, Richard
    Past work has demonstrated that the infrastructure in the Wellington region, Aotearoa New Zealand, is vulnerable to natural hazard events such as earthquake and tsunami. To enable common understandings of the levels of service (or targets) that critical infrastructure entities are planning on delivering in an emergency event, the concept of ‘planning emergency levels of service’ (PELOS) is developed and presented in this thesis. Such a concept is readily relatable to the water sector where, for example, the World Health Organisation’s ‘basic access’ to water standard is for ’20 litres of water, per person, per day, within 1km of the dwelling’. Despite such standards for water, there are few other examples in the sectors of energy, telecommunications and transport. A literature review investigated relevant sources of information on the concept from both academic and from infrastructure sector-specific texts and was used in developing a preliminary framework of PELOS, alongside discussions with emergency management experts in the Wellington region. The overall PELOS concept and preliminary framework was then presented in interviews and workshops with key stakeholders, and qualitative data collected from these interactions was used to create an ‘operationalised’ PELOS framework. This framework was adopted by the Wellington Lifelines Group, a grouping of the critical infrastructure entities in the region. Key themes of the PELOS concept are explored, namely: interdependencies, the need to consider the vulnerabilities of some community members, emergency planning considerations, stakeholders’ willingness to collaborate and the flexibility/adaptability of the delivery of infrastructure services following a major event. Further, a description of the process taken to develop the framework is provided to enable other regions to create their own frameworks. A mapping tool, visualising where PELOS can, and cannot, be achieved based on hazard impact modelling is presented. This allows the infrastructure entities, the impacted communities and the emergency management sector to have a common understanding of the targets of response following a major hazard event, and plan for them in future.
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    Development of a decision support system through modelling of critical infrastructure interdependencies : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Emergency Management at Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2021) Syed, Yasir Imtiaz
    Critical Infrastructure (CI) networks provide functional services to support the wellbeing of a community. Although it is possible to obtain detailed information about individual CI and their components, the interdependencies between different CI networks are often implicit, hidden or not well understood by experts. In the event of a hazard, failures of one or more CI networks and their components can disrupt the functionality and consequently affect the supply of services. Understanding the extent of disruption and quantification of the resulting consequences is important to assist various stakeholders' decision-making processes to complete their tasks successfully. A comprehensive review of the literature shows that a Decision Support System (DSS) integrated with appropriate modelling and simulation techniques is a useful tool for CI network providers and relevant emergency management personnel to understand the network recovery process of a region following a hazard event. However, the majority of existing DSSs focus on risk assessment or stakeholders' involvement without addressing the overall CI interdependency modelling process. Furthermore, these DSSs are primarily developed for data visualization or CI representation but not specifically to help decision-makers by providing them with a variety of customizable decision options that are practically viable. To address these limitations, a Knowledge-centred Decision Support System (KCDSS) has been developed in this study with the following aims: 1) To develop a computer-based DSS using efficient CI network recovery modelling algorithms, 2) To create a knowledge-base of various recovery options relevant to specific CI damage scenarios so that the decision-makers can test and verify several ‘what-if’ scenarios using a variety of control variables, and 3) To bridge the gap between hazard and socio-economic modelling tools through a multidisciplinary and integrated natural hazard impact assessment. Driven by the design science research strategy, this study proposes an integrated impact assessment framework using an iterative design process as its first research outcome. This framework has been developed as a conceptual artefact using a topology network-based approach by adopting the shortest path tree method. The second research outcome, a computer-based KCDSS, provides a convenient and efficient platform for enhanced decision making through a knowledge-base consisting of real-life recovery strategies. These strategies have been identified from the respective decision-makers of the CI network providers through the Critical Decision Method (CDM), a Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) method for requirement elicitation. The capabilities of the KCDSS are demonstrated through electricity, potable water, and road networks in the Wellington region of Aotearoa New Zealand. The network performance has been analysed independently and with interdependencies to generate outage of services spatially and temporally. The outcomes of this study provide a range of theoretical and practical contributions. Firstly, the topology network-based analysis of CI interdependencies will allow a group of users to build different models, make and test assumptions, and try out different damage scenarios for CI network components. Secondly, the step-by-step process of knowledge elicitation, knowledge representation and knowledge modelling of CI network recovery tasks will provide a guideline for improved interactions between researchers and decision-makers in this field. Thirdly, the KCDSS can be used to test the variations in outage and restoration time estimates of CI networks due to the potential uncertainty related to the damage modelling of CI network components. The outcomes of this study also have significant practical implications by utilizing the KCDSS as an interface to integrate and add additional capabilities to the hazard and socio-economic modelling tools. Finally, the variety of ‘what-if’ scenarios embedded in the KCDSS would allow the CI network providers to identify vulnerabilities in their networks and to examine various post-disaster recovery options for CI reinstatement projects.
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    Community resilience, capitals, and power relations : stories from the Waimakariri District about the aftermath of the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquakes in New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Resource and Environmental Planning at Massey University, Manawatu, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2019) García Cartagena, Martín
    Situated on the southern Pacific Rim, New Zealand’s seismic profile has long posed risks for New Zealand communities. In this geological context, fostering community resilience to natural hazards is vital and resilience is beginning to be mainstreamed into New Zealand’s planning and emergency management systems. However, a challenge emerges: how can the complex and contested concept of community resilience be operationalised in practice? This thesis addresses this question by critically evaluating how community resources and assets can be framed as community capitals, and exploring how these were mobilised in the Waimakariri District; an area affected by the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquake sequence. A novel conceptual framework, the Community Resilience Capitals Framework, is developed on the basis of a literature review on resilience and capitals integrating Social-Ecological Systems theory, community resilience theory, and multi-capital frameworks. The research was underpinned by social constructionism, framed by a critical inquiry perspective and conducted using a Community-Based Participatory design. A mixed-methods approach was applied to explore the breadth and depth of Waimakariri post-Canterbury earthquake recovery stories. Purposive and snowballing methods were used to identify and recruit 51 research participants. Data collection methods included a pilot study, case studies, semi-structured interviews and focus groups. Data were subjected to content and narrative analyses; informed by the theories of Bourdieu, Foucault, and Harré. Research findings show that capitals tend to be theorised as a variety of compartmentalised static concepts. However, physical capitals, such as built and economic capitals, and metaphysical capitals, such as symbolic, cultural, social, political and moral capitals, are accrued, assembled, and mobilised by actors shaping complex capital networks. Those who have or are able to mobilise the largest assemblages of capitals position themselves and others who have accrued less capital within the hierarchically structured fields of disaster response, recovery and regeneration. It is an actor’s position within the fields that gives them the legitimacy (symbolic capital) to influence matters (central position), or be subjected to dominant actors (marginal positions). Multiple exemplars to illustrate capital accrual and field positioning are explored in this thesis such as central governments’ reliance on the insurance and reinsurance sectors’ economic capital to stabilise New Zealand’s financial markets. Consequently, insurance-related stakeholders were imbued with significant political capital and able to determine the priorities for earthquake recovery, while local communities’ priorities were marginalised. Key findings of this research indicate that physical and metaphysical capitals are selectively accrued as well as mobilised by actors positioned in the fields of disaster risk reduction, in order to influence negotiations pertaining to well-being and resilience priorities. Imbalances in capital accrual by actors fuel inequities in community resilience building processes. This research has identified that the complex nature of capitals and the ways they are mobilised to facilitate community wellbeing are not adequately acknowledged in prevailing emergency management and planning practices. The Community Resilience Capitals Framework reveals the complex nature of capital interactions and can be used to reveal how equitable and inclusive local community resilience building processes are in practice, in a place- and context-sensitive manner.
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    Physical and social impacts of past and future volcanic eruptions in New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Earth Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 1997) Johnston, David Moore
    The North Island of New Zealand contains a number of active and potentially active volcanoes. Although the probability of an eruption affecting a significant portion of the North Island is relatively low in any one year, the probability of one occurring in the future is high. The potential impacts of a large eruption are significant and the risk cannot be ignored. The timing of the next eruption cannot yet be determined but its probable effects can reasonably be assessed. The 1945 eruption of Mount Ruapehu dispersed ash over a wide area of the North Island over a period of several months. Individual ash falls were only a few millimetres thick in communities closest to the volcano (<50 km) and trace amounts in communities farther away. Ash falls were mostly of nuisance value in affected communities, causing minor eye and throat irritations, soiling interiors of houses and damaging paintwork. More significant impacts included crop damage, low wool quality on farms close to the mountain, disruption to skiing, the removal of army vehicles from Waiouru and numerous disruptions to water and electricity supplies. The 1995-1996 eruptions caused similar physical effects to the 1945 eruption but had considerably greater social and economic impacts. Over the past 50 years the risk has increased significantly due to an increased population, higher visitor usage and a more technologically advanced infrastructure. With increasing development and population growth the risk from similar or larger eruptions will continue to increase. A community's infrastructure provides the services and linkages which allow society to function. These 'lifelines', involving electricity, water, sewerage and roading. are vulnerable to damage and/or disruption from a range of volcanic hazards. The most threatening hazards include pyroclastic falls, pyroclastic flows and surges, lava extrusions (flows and domes), lahars, debris avalanches and volcanic gases. Unfortunately there are very few quantitative measurements of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on community 'lifelines'. With direct observations of eruption impacts, combined with theoretical considerations, it is possible to form a conceptual model of the likely impacts of a given event. These can then be used to predict likely effects, which may then be utilised in risk analysis (and scenarios). Two eruption scenarios are considered: 1) a 0.1 km3 andesitic eruption of Ruapehu composite volcano during a northwesterly wind, affecting Hastings District; 2) a 4 km3 rhyolitic eruption from the Okataina caldera during a westerly wind, affecting Whakatane District. The choice of scenarios is designed to illustrate the contrast between a disruptive moderate-sized eruption from a cone volcano (Ruapehu) and the destructive impacts of a large caldera eruption (Okataina). The Ruapehu scenario will have disruptive short term impacts on Hastings District, with the recovery process spontaneous, immediate and rapid. The infrastructure of Whakatane will be severely damaged by the Okataina eruption scenario and suffer effects for many years. The social and economic impacts of both scenarios will be determined not only by direct physical consequences but also by the interaction of social and economic factors. Residents of both Whakatane and Hastings were surveyed in February 1995 to measure their understanding of volcanic hazards. This was repeated following the Ruapehu eruptions in November 1995. Few residents have copies of specific volcanic hazard information and few have undertaken any form of information searching prior to the 1995 Ruapehu eruption. The 1995 eruption resulted in a small increase in the numbers searching for information on volcanic hazards in both communities. Although some agencies are perceived as more credible than others as the source of volcanic hazard information, no one agency has a monopoly on perceived credibility (i.e. different people recognise different agencies as the best source of information on volcanic hazard information and warnings). During the 1995 Ruapehu eruption the media (TV, radio and newspaper) were the principal sources of information about what was happening. Different people rely on different channels for information and this should also be acknowledged when issuing warnings and releasing public information. Whakatane and Hastings supply interesting contrasts. Both were subjected to intense media coverage during the 1995 Ruapehu eruption, but Whakatane was spared any direct effects, whereas Hastings experienced the hazard directly, in the form of ash falls in September and October 1995. Only Hastings' respondents showed a significant change in the perceived volcanic threat. However, even though there was no significant change in the perception of volcanic threat in Whakatane, residents still continued to perceive the volcanic threat as being higher than Hastings residents. Experiencing the direct and indirect impacts of the 1995 Ruapehu eruption may make subsequent warnings and information releases more salient, thereby enhancing the likelihood of engaging in protective actions or other forms of response. This is likely to be the case for those individuals and organisations that experienced the greatest impacts. However, the relatively benign impacts may make many prone to a "normalisation bias", whereby individuals or organisations believe that the volcanic eruptions did not affect them negatively, therefore the negative impacts of future volcanic events will also avoid them. This may be prevalent in communities close to Ruapehu which escaped the direct ash falls as a consequence of favourable wind directions. This conclusion suggests that the 1995-1996 Ruapehu eruptions may have both improved and reduced individual, organisational and community preparedness for future volcanic events.