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    A modular framework for the development of multi-hazard, multi-phase volcanic eruption scenario suites
    (Elsevier BV, 2022-07) Weir AM; Mead S; Bebbington MS; Wilson TM; Beaven S; Gordon T; Campbell-Smart C
    Understanding future volcanic eruptions and their potential impact is a critical component of disaster risk reduction, and necessitates the production of salient, robust hazard information for decision-makers and end-users. Volcanic eruptions are inherently multi-phase, multi-hazard events, and the uncertainty and complexity surrounding potential future hazard behaviour is exceedingly hard to communicate to decision-makers. Volcanic eruption scenarios are recognised to be an effective knowledge-sharing mechanism between scientists and practitioners, and recent hybrid scenario suites partially address the limitations surrounding the traditional deterministic scenario approach. Despite advances in scenario suite development, there is still a gap in the international knowledge base concerning the synthesis of multi-phase, multi-hazard volcano science and end-user needs. In this study we present a new modular framework for the development of complex, long-duration, multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic eruption scenario suites. The framework was developed in collaboration with volcanic risk management agencies and researchers in Aotearoa-New Zealand, and is applied to Taranaki Mounga volcano, an area of high volcanic risk. This collaborative process aimed to meet end-user requirements, as well as the need for scientific rigour. This new scenario framework development process could be applied at other volcanic settings to produce robust, credible and relevant scenario suites that are demonstrative of the complex, varying-duration and multi-hazard nature of volcanic eruptions. In addressing this gap, the value of volcanic scenario development is enhanced by advancing multi-hazard assessment capabilities and cross-sector collaboration between scientists and practitioners for disaster risk reduction planning.
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    Statistical methods for assembling and incorporating volcanic records in hazard estimation : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Statistics at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2015) Green, Rebecca
    The estimation of hazard arising from volcanic eruptions is a research topic of great interest to New Zealand, given the number and location of active and dormant volcanoes. Probabilistic temporal models are required to handle the stochastic nature of observed records. Such models are usually assembled using point process techniques or renewal theory and most are purely temporal in the sense that they only consider the distribution of event or inter-event times as predictors of further volcanic activity. I demonstrate using a high-resolution eruption record from Mt Taranaki (New Zealand) how geochemical data can be incorporated, using a proportional hazards type approach, to improve the performance of current renewal-type models. Probabilistic forecasting relies on the accuracy and completeness of historical eruption records. This poses the question of how to establish a detailed record of past volcanic events. Multiple sites are needed to build a composite tephra record, but correctly merging them by recognizing events in common and site-speci c gaps remains complex. I present an automated procedure for matching tephra sequences, using stochastic local optimization techniques. Implausible matches are eliminated through careful reasoning, while heuristically searching over the remaining alternatives. Possible matches are veri ed using known tephra compositions and stratigraphic constraints. The method is applied to match tephra records from ve long sediment cores in Auckland, New Zealand. The correlated record compiled is statistically more likely than previously published arrangements from this area. In addition to the matching of tephras found in the Auckland region, the algorithm is applied to stratigraphic records obtained from Mt Taranaki. With more detailed geochemical information available, matches are constrained further by considering principle component analysis of titanomagnetite compositional data. Finally, after combining the amalgamated record of Mt Taranaki events with point thickness measurements, the eruptive volume of Mt Taranaki events is estimated. Utilizing isopach maps and individual point observations a model is formulated, in a Bayesian framework, for the thicknesses of tephra deposits as a function of the distance and angular direction of each location. The model estimates, in addition to eruptive volume, the wind and site-speci c e ects on the thickness deposits. The ndings lead on to methods of incorporating eruptive volumes in hazard estimation.
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    The late quaternary cover bed stratigraphy and tephrochronology of north-eastern and central Taranaki, New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfullment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of philosophy in soil science at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 1989) Alloway, Brent Victor
    This study involved the recognition and description of tephra, lahar and debris avalanche deposits generated from activity centred at Egmont Volcano over the last c.l30kyrs B.P. Stratigraphic relationships between the various cover bed deposits of north-eastern and central Taranaki are discussed and their distributions mapped where possible. The stratigraphic record indicates that tephra emission and lahar inundation are typical, recurring features of Egmont Volcano. Average periodicity for moderate to major sized eruptions (>107m3) may be as frequent as, one every 250 years. Tephras from Egmont Volcano have been correlated to both the adjacent Wanganui and Waikato districts. Six rhyolitic tephras erupted from the Central North Island have been identified in Taranaki and are especially valuable as widespread time planes within the andesitic cover bed succession. At least thirteen lahars are shown to have been deposited over extensive areas of the ring plain during the last 22.5 kyrs B.P. Many of these lahars became channelised within stream and river catchments to extend to the North Taranaki coastline. Partial or complete collapse of Egmont Volcano at c.23kyrs and much earlier at c.100kyrs B.P. generated large volumed, debris avalanches that spread principally over a wide north-eastern to south-eastern arc. The resulting deposits are characterised by extensive areas of mounds now deeply buried by a younger late Pleistocene and Holocene tephra mantle. The stratigraphy of an alternating sequence of reddish (S-units) and yellowish (L-units) medial beds was also investigated. Generally their thinning pattern is similar to that of coarse ash and lapilli suggesting tephric origin.The thinning pattern of L-units however, is occasionally interrupted by localised overthickening and indicates localised aeolian deposition during cool to cold climatic periods. The biostratigraphic record constructed from pollen examinations support the climatic interpretations made from the medial stratigraphy. The measurement of quartz content in medial units is shown to be a particularly useful parameter for assessing past climatic conditions. Two peaks in quartz influx were recorded and correlated to the full-glacial periods of oxygen isotope stages 2 and 4. Forming the North Taranaki coastal plain are five uplifted marine terraces, that provide a c.0.45 Ma record of successive sea level oscillations with moderate to low rates of crustal deformation. The present extent of these terraces is related to lahar deposits within their cover beds which have repeatedly advanced the coastline and retarded coastal erosion.
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    A sedimentological and geochemical approach to understanding cycles of stratovolcano growth and collapse at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Earth Science at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2008) Zernack, Anke Verena
    The long-term behaviour of andesitic stratovolcanoes is characterised by a repetition of edifice growth and collapse phases. This cyclic pattern may represent a natural frequency at varying timescales in the growth dynamics of stratovolcanoes, but is often difficult to identify because of long cycle-timescales, coupled with incomplete stratigraphic records. The volcaniclastic ring-plain succession surrounding the 2 518 m Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand, comprises a wide variety of distinctive volcanic mass-flow lithofacies with sedimentary and lithology characteristics that can be related to recurring volcanic cycles over >190 ka. Debrisflow and monolithologic hyperconcentrated-flow deposits record edifice growth phases while polylithologic debris-avalanche and associated cohesive debris-flow units were emplaced by collapse. Major edifice failures at Mt. Taranaki occurred on-average every 10 ka, with five events recognised over the last 30 ka, a time interval for which stratigraphic records are more complete. The unstable nature of Mt. Taranaki mainly results from its weak internal composite structure including abundant saturated pyroclastic deposits and breccia layers, along with its growth on a weakly indurated and tectonically fractured basement of Tertiary mudstones and sandstones. As the edifice repeatedly grew beyond a critical stable height or profile, large-scale collapses were triggered by intrusions preceding magmatic activity, major eruptions, or significant regional tectonic fault movements. Clasts within debris-avalanche deposits were used as a series of windows into the composition of previous successive proto-Mt Taranaki edifices in order to examine magmatic controls on their failure. The diversity of lithologies and their geochemical characteristics are similar throughout the history of the volcano, with the oldest sample suites displaying a slightly broader range of compositions including more primitive rock types. The evolution to a narrower range and higher-silica compositions was accompanied by an increase in K2O. This shows that later melts progressively interacted with underplated amphibolitic material at the base of the crust. These gradual changes imply a long-term stability of the magmatic system. The preservation of similar internal conditions during the volcano’s evolution, hence suggests that external processes were the main driving force behind its cyclic growth and collapse behaviour and resulting sedimentation pattern.
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    Eruption cycles and magmatic processes at a reawakening volcano, Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Earth Science at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2008) Turner, Michael Bruce
    Realistic probabilistic hazard forecasts for re-awakening volcanoes rely on making an accurate estimation of their past eruption frequency and magnitude for a period long enough to view systematic changes or evolution. Adding an in-depth knowledge of the local underlying magmatic or tectonic driving processes allows development of even more robust eruption forecasting models. Holocene tephra records preserved within lacustrine sediments and soils on and surrounding the andesitic stratovolcano of Mt. Taranaki (Egmont Volcano), New Zealand, were used to 1) compile an eruption catalogue that minimises bias to carry out frequency analysis, and 2) identify magmatic processes responsible for variations in activity of this intermittently awakening volcano. A new, highly detailed eruption history for Mt. Taranaki was compiled from sediment sequences containing Holocene tephra layers preserved beneath Lakes Umutekai and Rotokare, NE and SE of the volcano’s summit, respectively, with age control provided by radiocarbon dating. To combine the two partly concurrent tephra records both geochemistry (on titanomagnetite) and statistical measures of event concurrence were applied. Similarly, correlation was made to proximal pyroclastic sequences in all sectors around the 2518 m-high edifice. This record was used to examine geochemical variations (through titanomagnetite and bulk chemistry) at Mt. Taranaki in unprecedented sampling detail. To develop an unbiased sampling of eruption event frequency, a technique was developed to distinguish explosive, pumice-forming eruptions from dome-forming events recorded in medial ash as fine-grade ash layers. Recognising that exsolution lamellae in titanomagnetite result from oxidation processes within lava domes or plugs, their presence within ash deposits was used to distinguish falls elutriated from blockand- ash flows. These deposits are focused in particular catchments and are hence difficult to sample comprehensively. Excluding these events from temporal eruption records, the remaining, widespread pumice layers of sub-plinian eruptions at a single site of Lake Umutekai presented the lowest-bias sampling of the overall event frequency. The annual eruption frequency of Mt. Taranaki was found to be strongly cyclic with a 1500-2000 year periodicity. Titanomagnetite, glass and whole-rock chemistry of eruptives from Mt. Taranaki’s Holocene history all display distinctive compositional cycles that correspond precisely with the event frequency curve for this volcano. Furthermore, the largest known eruptions from the volcano involve the most strongly evolved magmas of their cycle and occur during the eruptive-frequency minimum, preceding the longest repose intervals known. Petrological evidence reveals a two-stage system of magma differentiation and assembly operating at Mt. Taranaki. Each of the identified 1500-2000 year cycles represent isolated magma batches that evolved at depth at the base of the crust before periodically feeding a mid-upper crustal magma storage system.