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    Exploring the science of evacuation behavior and decision-making during large scale community evacuations: A scientometrics analysis and scoping review
    (Elsevier Ltd, 2026-03-01) Kannangara C; Kuligowski E; Siriwardana C; Zhang G; Adikariwattage V; Jayawardane P
    Understanding how people behave during large-scale community evacuations is important as it can reveal key decision-making gaps which can be addressed to improve emergency planning and to keep communities safer. This study examines the critical gaps in existing research on evacuation behavior and decision-making during disasters by holistically exploring the research domain of evacuation behavior. A total of 667 articles and their references were analyzed using scientometrics methods. This study employs a novel approach to the analysis called overlay networks in CiteSpace. The findings highlight gaps in our understanding of human behavior during the evacuation, such as the stay-or-go decision and travel-related behavior, including destination, mode, route, and return-entry choices, in the context of earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, volcanic hazards, and wildfires. Evacuations triggered by technological disasters are explicitly excluded from this review. It also emphasizes that tourist evacuations remain an underexplored area. Also, the current study reveals that established theories, such as the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), remain underutilized in research on evacuation behavior during hazards like earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. This research supports the findings of previous studies in emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary approaches to evacuation research. It also underscores the importance of integrating existing behavioral evidence into evacuation models, alongside efforts to collect additional data. Also, the study emphasizes the importance of strengthening research collaborations with scholars in Asia and Africa. This approach seeks to address the disparity in research conducted across different regions of the world.
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    Where does scientific uncertainty come from, and from whom? Mapping perspectives of natural hazards science advice
    (Elsevier, 2023-10-01) Doyle EEH; Thompson J; Hill S; Williams M; Paton D; Harrison S; Bostrom A; Becker J
    The science associated with assessing natural hazard phenomena and the risks they pose contains many layers of complex and interacting elements, resulting in diverse sources of uncertainty. This creates a challenge for effective communication, which must consider how people perceive that uncertainty. Thus, we conducted twenty-five mental model interviews in Aotearoa New Zealand with participants ranging from scientists to policy writers and emergency managers, and through to the public. The interviews included three phases: an initial elicitation of free thoughts about uncertainty, a mental model mapping activity, and a semi-structured interview protocol to explore further questions about scientific processes and their personal philosophy of science. Qualitative analysis led to the construction of key themes, including: (a) understanding that, in addition to data sources, the ‘actors’ involved can also be sources of uncertainty; (b) acknowledging that factors such as governance and funding decisions partly determine uncertainty; (c) the influence of assumptions about expected human behaviours contributing to “known unknowns'; and (d) the difficulty of defining what uncertainty actually is. Participants additionally highlighted the positive role of uncertainty for promoting debate and as a catalyst for further inquiry. They also demonstrated a level of comfort with uncertainty and advocated for ‘sitting with uncertainty’ for transparent reporting in advice. Additional influences included: an individual's understanding of societal factors; the role of emotions; using outcomes as a scaffold for interpretation; and the complex and noisy communications landscape. Each of these require further investigation to enhance the communication of scientific uncertainty.
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    Resilence planning for natural hazards in New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Resource and Environmental Planning at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2015) Belgrave, Briar
    We live in times with a heightened sense of uncertainty and constant reminders of the risk of extreme natural hazard events, as evidenced by the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake series. Resilience planning is rapidly gaining salience as a promising approach for dealing with the complex challenge of uncertainty and escalating natural hazard risk. Yet, it is not clear what resilience planning means, beyond the assumption that it is good to be resilient and that we should plan to build resilience in practice. Despite the lack of clarity, there is a growing number of scholars exploring the approach, its potential and benefits. It is, however, in its conceptual stage and has yet to be widely adopted in planning practice, in New Zealand or elsewhere. This begs the question that this thesis aims to explore: What are the barriers and opportunities for effectively institutionalising resilience planning and how can it be operationalised in planning practice in New Zealand? This question is explored through a case study analysis of experiences in the Waimakariri District in Canterbury after the 2010-2011 earthquake events. The key findings of this research show there are nine barriers to institutionalising resilience planning (community priorities; cost versus benefit; high vulnerability; knowledge; leadership; responsibilities; time/timing; the legislative setting; and silos). The research revealed that each of these barriers will challenge resilience planning and its institutionalisation at different stages of the planning process. The barriers must first be overcome to allow for the operationalisation of the resilience planning characteristics through actions for practice. Opportunities for institutionalising resilience planning so as to overcome the barriers and allow it to become a reality in practice were explored. The opportunities included, for example, the following: the earthquake experiences; heightened awareness and interest in resilience planning; the recovery and rebuild period; relationships and connections made; ensuring a concerted effort and focus on resilience planning; undertaking vulnerability assessment; and placing focus on the culture of resilience planning. Six resilience planning characteristics required for operationalisation in practice were identified (leadership; social capital; social learning; community; reflection; and innovation). Based on these findings, a framework is proposed to institutionalise and operationalise resilience planning in New Zealand. The application of this framework will assist in shaping current thinking and planning practice and enable choices that will ultimately build more resilient, sustainable communities in the face of uncertainty and escalating natural hazard risks.
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    The role of land-use planning in reducing the vulnerability of the Bay of Plenty region to natural hazards : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Resource and Environmental Planning at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2013) Morris, Stephen Kaye
    This thesis analyses policies and plans used by local authorities in New Zealand’s Bay of Plenty region to determine how well they address vulnerability to natural hazards. Interviews were conducted with planners, decision-makers and community leaders to find improvements necessary to reduce vulnerability. The Bay of Plenty was chosen as a case study due to the wide range and close proximity of natural hazards the region is exposed to. Following a literature review, policies, plans and interview data was coded, arranged into themes and findings written up. This research found that New Zealand has robust legislation that provide planners, decision-makers and individuals with the foundation and tools to avoid or mitigate hazard risk. However, the lack of use of the term vulnerability needs to be addressed. The ‘existing use’ rights conundrum presented by the Resource Management Act (1991) presents a challenge to meaningful locational decisions to reduce exposure. The absence of specifically addressing vulnerability in legislation filters down to Bay of Plenty policies and plans; it is difficult to plan for vulnerability reduction if there is no focus on it. The interviews found that access to financial resources and strong social ties are key determinants of vulnerability. However there were also a number of seemingly contradictory sources of vulnerability such as a greater vulnerability of wealthy and urban communities relative to poor or rural communities. This underlines how difficult it is to plan for complex social problems. The obvious implication of this research is that vulnerability is a complex and diverse problem that is not mitigated by placing people into broad categories divorced from the sum of their circumstances. Key words Land-use planning, vulnerability, resilience, risk, advocacy planning, Bay of Plenty, New Zealand
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    Visitor perceptions of natural hazards at Whakapapa and Turoa ski areas, Mt Ruapehu : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy in Geography at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2010) Milnes, Celeste N.
    Whakapapa and Turoa are ski areas located on the active volcano Mt Ruapehu, in the Central North Island of New Zealand. Mt Ruapehu is located within Tongariro National Park, one of the 14 National Parks administered by the Department of Conservation (DoC). Visitors to Whakapapa and Turoa ski areas encounter an array of hazards, including icy slopes, ragged cliffs and drop-offs, and thousands of other mountain users. Hazards unique to Whakapapa and Turoa include the threat to human safety from lahars, ash falls, pyroclastic flows, erosion, rock falls, crevassing and ballistic bombs due to the active volcanic nature of this mountain. Managing these hazards at Mt Ruapehu is complex due to the number of factors involved. This dynamic site hosts visitors who are moderately experienced and prepared, but may be complacent about the danger to personal safety within these areas. The intention of this research was to investigate how the public perceives hazards at Whakapapa and Turoa ski areas at Mt Ruapehu, and look at the particular hazards to which visitors feel they have been exposed. In order to identify gaps in public awareness of hazards, the current study at Whakapapa and Turoa ski areas involved surveying 400 members of the public, analysing the output from these surveys, and conducting semi-structured interviews with staff from Ruapehu Alpine Lifts, Institute of Geological and Nuclear Science and DoC. RAL safety management staff, DoC staff, and GNS scientists were spoken to in regard to their role as hazard communicators through identification of ways that they present safety messages to ski area visitors. A basic demographic profile of visitors to Whakapapa and Turoa ski areas was identified and problems of communicating risk to ski area users in terms of their tendency to overestimate ability and take significant risk were outlined. Visitors to Whakapapa and Turoa ski areas were shown to have only moderate awareness of hazards and a number of suggestions for ski area management are provided. The author has identified a number of areas where the public’s knowledge and practice around hazards is lacking and has made recommendations for the stakeholders.
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    Evaluating land use and emergency management plans for natural hazards as a function of good governance: A Case Study from New Zealand
    (Beijing Normal University Press, 2015-03) Saunders W; Grace E; Beban J; Johnston DM
    Plan evaluation is of utmost importance as a function of good governance. It provides a means to improve the institutional basis for implementing land use controls, provides an important opportunity to improve future plans to reduce risk, and improves the vision for sustainable development and management. This article provides an overview of the methods and findings of a plan evaluation project undertaken in New Zealand. The project analyzed 99 operative plans, provided in-depth analysis of ten plans, and included a capability and capacity study of councils. This is the first time all operative plans in New Zealand have had their natural hazard provisions assessed in this manner. The information provides an important baseline for future policy improvements, and a basis for future research and policy directions. The project found that, while New Zealand land use plans appear to be improving over time, there are still opportunities for improvement. These include improving linkages between objectives, policies, and rules within land use plans; and strengthening the linkages between land use and emergency management plans. The largest challenge is the accessibility, understanding of, and updating of hazard information.