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Item Upscaling effects on infectious disease emergence risk emphasize the need for local planning in primary prevention within biodiversity hotspots(Springer Nature Limited, 2025-10-27) Muylaert RL; Wilkinson DA; Dwiyanti EI; Hayman DTSZoonotic risk assessments are increasingly vital in the wake of recent epidemics. The microbial diversity of parasitic organisms correlates with host species richness, with regions of high biodiversity facing elevated risks of emerging zoonotic infections. While habitat loss and fragmentation reduce species diversity, anthropogenic encroachment, particularly in forested areas, amplifies human exposure to novel pathogens. This study integrates host habitat, biodiversity, human encroachment, and population at risk to estimate novel disease emergence and epidemic risk at multiple spatial scales. Using Java, Indonesia, as a case study, we demonstrate that degrading spatial resolution leads to information loss, with optimal resolutions typically below 2000 m, ideally around 500 m when native-resolution processing is unfeasible. Gravity models of epidemic spread highlight Jakarta and West Java as high-risk areas, with varying contributions from surrounding regions. Our spatial analysis underscores the influence of population centers on forest management and agroforestry practices. These findings offer valuable insights for guiding pandemic prevention research and improving pathogen- and driver-based risk monitoring strategies.Item Rapid remote volcanic ashfall impact assessment for the 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga: a bespoke approach and lessons identified(Springer Nature, 2024-10-28) Weir AM; Williams JH; Wilson TM; Hayes JL; Stewart C; Leonard GS; Magill C; Jenkins SF; Williams S; Craig HM; Kula T; Fraser S; Pomonis A; Gunasekera R; Daniell JE; Coultas EWhen disasters occur, rapid impact assessments are required to prioritise response actions, support in-country efforts and inform the mobilisation of aid. The 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga, and the resulting atmospheric shockwave, ashfall, underwater mass disturbance and tsunami, caused substantial impacts across the Kingdom of Tonga. Volcanic impacts on the scale observed after the eruption are rare, necessitating a reliance on international advice and assistance. The situation was complicated by the loss of Tonga’s international submarine fibreoptic cable (causing a complete loss of communications for approximately 20 days) along with border closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic. A need emerged for a rapid remote volcanic impact assessment and provision of specialist advice to help inform the response of international partners. Here we present a novel methodology for conducting rapid remote volcanic ashfall impact assessments, conducted over a 10-day period following the eruption. We used three different hazard models for ashfall thickness across the main island of Tongatapu and available asset information and vulnerability functions for buildings, agriculture, electricity networks, water supply and roads, to provide initial estimates of losses due to ashfall from the 15 January eruption. For buildings, we estimated losses both as total losses and as percentages of the total replacement cost of buildings on Tongatapu. For agriculture, we made probabilistic estimates of production losses for three different crop classes. For ashfall clean-up, we estimated ranges of ashfall volumes requiring clean-up from road surfaces and roofs. For water supply, electricity networks and roads, our analysis was limited to assessing the exposure of important assets to ashfall, as we had insufficient information on system configurations to take the analysis further. Key constraints on our analysis were the limited nature of critical infrastructure asset inventories and the lack of volcanic vulnerability models for tropical regions including Pacific Island nations. Key steps towards iteratively improving rapid remote impact assessments will include developing vulnerability functions for tropical environments as well as ground-truthing estimated losses from remote approaches against in-person impact assessment campaigns.Item A temporal network analysis of risk factors for suicide : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Clinical Psychology at Massey University, Manawatū, New Zealand(Massey University, 2024-03-19) Holman, MikaylaSuicide is a major public health concern in New Zealand, with the number of lives lost due to suicide increasing almost every year. The factors influencing a person’s decision to take their own life are numerous and often complex. Some of these factors are dynamic, fluctuating over short periods of time and ultimately altering a person’s risk for suicide. Network analysis is a novel statistical technique that can be used to explore complex causal associations in systems of variables, such as risk factors for suicide. The present study used temporal network analysis to explore the associations between dynamic risk factors for suicide over time. Data collection involved ecological momentary assessment, where a general community sample of 39 adult participants completed a brief survey five times per day for ten days, resulting in 1420 completed surveys. Each survey assessed participants’ momentary experience of suicidal ideation, depressed mood, hopelessness, social support, self-esteem, thwarted belongingness, perceived burdensomeness, anhedonia, worthlessness, alcohol intoxication, and fatigue. All variables fluctuated from measurement to measurement at least some of the time, highlighting the dynamic nature of suicide risk. Temporal, contemporaneous, and between-persons networks of the 11 measured variables were estimated using temporal network analysis. In the temporal network, hopelessness was the only variable that predicted an increase in suicidal ideation at the subsequent measurement. Multiple nodes were estimated to be positively associated with suicidal ideation in the contemporaneous network, including depressed mood, thwarted belongingness, perceived burdensomeness, and worthlessness, while self-esteem was negatively associated with suicidal ideation in this network. In the between-persons network, hopelessness was the only variable with a significant association with suicidal ideation. The results of this study highlight the importance of continuously assessing changes in suicide risk factors given their dynamic nature. Hopelessness may be an especially important risk factor to assess given its temporal association with increased suicidal ideation. Regarding future research opportunities, experimental N=1 network studies about the effectiveness of personalised interventions based on node centrality are an important next step in determining whether individualised networks have a place in personalised treatment for suicidality.Item Contributions to food safety acceptance sampling plans : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Statistics, Massey University, School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences(Massey University, 2023) Thevaraja, MayooranAn appropriate sampling inspection method is an essential tool for risk assessment in the food industry. A representative sampling approach will be helpful to reduce risk while minimising the sampling costs. Consequently, food manufacturers are employing efficient sampling approaches to assure food safety. In the food safety field, microbiological or other contamination often spreads unevenly across the production. Many factors are involved in the microbial risk assessment, such as (1) the amount of sample used for inspection, (2) what sampling methods were applied, (3) laboratory testing procedures, (4) physical sampling of materials from lots/batches of products and (5) the mixing of initially collected samples. This study focusses on improved sampling inspection approaches to reduce microbiological risk in food products. Part of this research also included developing open-source R packages to generate graphical displays for probabilistic risk assessment for practitioners. A single “wrapper” package is also provided to install all the newly developed packages in a single step.Item How risk informs natural hazard management : a study of the interface between risk modelling for tsunami inundation and local government policies and procedures : a thesis presented for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Emergency Management, Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand(Massey University, 2021) Crawford, MilesThe impact of natural hazards on society and the environment continues to increase, resulting in intolerable and unsustainable financial and social costs. The traditional approach of responding to the hazard once it has occurred is no longer acceptable because it hasn’t always raised awareness of the hazard or allowed communities to pre-emptively take action to protect themselves and their property. It is now more important than ever for governments and communities to proactively understand and prepare for natural hazard risks before hazards occur, so that our vulnerability and exposure to them is reduced when they occur. The costs-benefits of following a proactive approach, rather than a reactive approach are clear, bringing about a change in the way natural hazards are managed, as exemplified by the risk management focus of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015). Despite considerable research and effort in this area, natural hazard risk management struggles to be applied at global, national, and local scales. This illustrates a need to better understand how natural hazard risk is perceived and understood, and how it influences the development of policy frameworks for natural hazard management. In particular, questions remain regarding how risk modelling influences perception of natural hazard risk and application of risk reduction measures at the community level. This research explores how risk informs natural hazard management in Aotearoa New Zealand’s local government. It focusses on how the RiskScape risk modelling tool is used to communicate natural hazard risk for influencing risk awareness and the perceptions of practitioners. It specifically focusses on a tsunami hazard generated in the Hikurangi Subduction Margin as tsunami is Aotearoa New Zealand’s least likely but most significant natural hazard risk. However due to its infrequent occurrence, tsunami is perceived as less risky than other hazards. Focus group sessions and semi-structured qualitative interviews were held with natural hazard risk practitioners within local government, primarily across the Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, and Wellington regions of Aotearoa New Zealand. The focus groups and interviews explored practitioners’ perceptions on the value of risk modelling tools, particularly ‘RiskScape', for communicating risk and influencing policy development, as well as their thoughts and opinions on natural hazard risk management policy development in general, and with a specific focus on tsunami. These results were then corroborated through document analysis of risk-based tsunami policy and procedure for the regions studied. This research found that while practitioners understand the value of risk modelling for communicating tsunami risk for developing risk awareness and influencing perceptions, RiskScape is not employed widely within local government to achieve risk-based policy and practice. This is partly attributed to trust in risk modelling outputs as well as developmental problems with the RiskScape software. However, the larger part is due to challenges for natural hazard risk management within local government. Local Government’s challenges include lack of guidance, mandate, and collaboration for hazard management; limited risk leadership, understanding and awareness; lack of funding, capacity, and capability; and unavailability of quality data. Underlying each of these challenges are more fundamental challenges relating to the disconnect of the ‘science-policy-practice’ interface, and the interrelated complexity of the challenges which limit the effectiveness of solutions. Along with the limited use of risk modelling, risk-based policy and procedure for tsunami remains scarce. Of the 58 national and local policy documents analysed as part of this research, only three contain specific tsunami risk-based policy. This research proposes the use of ‘systems thinking’ to better understand this complex system of challenges as a whole. This approach can identify intervention points, which can interrupt the system’s dynamics and better apply natural hazard risk management in local government. The science-policy-practice interface is identified as an intervention point; however, tensions for collaboration across this interface limit its effectiveness. A formalised structure, which is mandated by integrative research frameworks, is recommended for how collaboration across the science-policy-practice interface can be improved. An improved science-policy-practice interface would enable the application of further recommendations for overcoming challenges for local government natural hazard risk management. These include developing awareness of natural hazard risk and the cognitive biases that influence risk perceptions; improved understanding of the value in using established risk management approaches; and greater capacity and capability for collecting, managing, and using natural hazard risk data. The outcome would enable bottom-up, co-development of risk modelling, which is trusted and used within local government to better develop risk-based policy and procedure. Through greater use of risk modelling in local government, tsunami risk can be better communicated, and risk-based tsunami policy and procedure can be better achieved. This will reduce tsunami-related losses and enable greater community resilience.Item Essays on commodity market uncertainties : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Finance at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand(Massey University, 2019) Naeem, Muhammad AbubakrThis dissertation presents three essays on commodity market uncertainties. Fundamentally, uncertainty relates to a decrease in investment and reduction in the production of goods and services that causes a momentary decline in aggregate output as well as employment. Hence, the increase in uncertainty has a pervasive impact on the aggregate income received by all the factors of production in an economy. In the first study, we measure the daily price uncertainty of 22 commodities and analyze the time and frequency connectedness among them. Applying spillover analysis and network graphs, we find that overall connectedness among commodity uncertainties increase during the global financial crisis (GFC) and the oil price collapse of 2014-16. Network analysis shows more spillover within a specific commodity class, and that precious metals due to less spillover with other commodities may serve as safe-haven during the crisis. The decomposition of the spillover index reveals that commodity markets are more connected in the long-run. The second study builds on the energy – stock nexus by investigating the impact of energy commodity uncertainties on the systematic risk of twelve industries in the US. The dynamic betas indicate that real estate, financials, and basic materials are the high-risk industries. Notably, the systematic risk of the oil and gas sector was significantly affected during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Shale Oil Revolution (SOR) sub-periods. Our results provide convincing evidence of the positive impact of energy uncertainties on basic material, basic resources, financials, oil and gas, and real estate. On the other hand, we identify the negative impact on consumer goods, consumer services, health care, industrials, and technology industries. Finally, our third study investigates the causal impact of global factors as drivers of transmission between oil and other commodity markets using the commodity uncertainty indexes. We estimate strong bi-directional transmission between oil and metal (agriculture) markets. Our analysis also suggests that oil is a net transmitter to other commodity uncertainties, and this transmission significantly increased during the period of the global financial crisis. The use of linear and nonlinear causality tests indicates that the global factors have a causal effect on the overall connectedness, especially on the total transmission from oil to other commodity uncertainties. Further segregation of transmissions between oil to individual commodity markets indicates VIX, TED spread, and EPU as the most influential drivers of connectedness among commodity markets.Item Resilence planning for natural hazards in New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Resource and Environmental Planning at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand(Massey University, 2015) Belgrave, BriarWe live in times with a heightened sense of uncertainty and constant reminders of the risk of extreme natural hazard events, as evidenced by the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake series. Resilience planning is rapidly gaining salience as a promising approach for dealing with the complex challenge of uncertainty and escalating natural hazard risk. Yet, it is not clear what resilience planning means, beyond the assumption that it is good to be resilient and that we should plan to build resilience in practice. Despite the lack of clarity, there is a growing number of scholars exploring the approach, its potential and benefits. It is, however, in its conceptual stage and has yet to be widely adopted in planning practice, in New Zealand or elsewhere. This begs the question that this thesis aims to explore: What are the barriers and opportunities for effectively institutionalising resilience planning and how can it be operationalised in planning practice in New Zealand? This question is explored through a case study analysis of experiences in the Waimakariri District in Canterbury after the 2010-2011 earthquake events. The key findings of this research show there are nine barriers to institutionalising resilience planning (community priorities; cost versus benefit; high vulnerability; knowledge; leadership; responsibilities; time/timing; the legislative setting; and silos). The research revealed that each of these barriers will challenge resilience planning and its institutionalisation at different stages of the planning process. The barriers must first be overcome to allow for the operationalisation of the resilience planning characteristics through actions for practice. Opportunities for institutionalising resilience planning so as to overcome the barriers and allow it to become a reality in practice were explored. The opportunities included, for example, the following: the earthquake experiences; heightened awareness and interest in resilience planning; the recovery and rebuild period; relationships and connections made; ensuring a concerted effort and focus on resilience planning; undertaking vulnerability assessment; and placing focus on the culture of resilience planning. Six resilience planning characteristics required for operationalisation in practice were identified (leadership; social capital; social learning; community; reflection; and innovation). Based on these findings, a framework is proposed to institutionalise and operationalise resilience planning in New Zealand. The application of this framework will assist in shaping current thinking and planning practice and enable choices that will ultimately build more resilient, sustainable communities in the face of uncertainty and escalating natural hazard risks.Item Progression to diabetes : 5 year follow-up of the Northland Diabetes Screening and Cardiovascular risk assessment pilot : a thesis presented to fulfil requirements for the degree of Master of Public Health at Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand(Massey University, 2014) White, Bronwyn KayeAim: The primary aim was to determine the effect the Northland Diabetes Screening and Cardiovascular risk assessment pilot had on the progression from a normal glucose test (NGT) at baseline to diabetes. Method: Patients from a single practice (Maori = 1509, Non-Maori = 619) who were invited onto the pilot with NGT at baseline were retrospectively followed up for 7 years. Results for Pilot (PG) (Maori = 336, Non-Maori 255) and Non-Pilot (NPG) groups (Maori = 537, Non-Maori = 204) were compared on progression to diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), all-cause mortality. Results for Maori: There were 10 incidence cases of diabetes, 20 IGT and 18 deaths from any-cause during a median duration of follow-up of 6.4 years in the PG compared with 22 incidence cases of diabetes, 23 IGT and 30 deaths from any-cause in the NPG followed for a median duration of 4.3 years. Participation in the pilot was associated with a statistically significant protective effect on progression to diabetes (Age-adjusted rate ratio 0.44(95% CI 0.2156, 0.912) and all-cause mortality (Age-adjusted rate ratio 0.49 (95% CI 0.2771, 0.8626). Results for Non-Maori: There were 12 incidence cases of diabetes, 13 IGT diagnoses and 19 deaths from any-cause during a median duration of follow-up of 6.2 years in the PG compared with 9/204 diabetes incidence cases, 11 IGT and 13 deaths from any-cause in the NPG followed for a median duration of 4.7 years. There was no statistically significant association with participation in the pilot on progression to diabetes, IGT or all-cause mortality. Conclusion: The protective effect for Maori patients in the pilot on progression to diabetes was either because they had inherently lower risk than the non-pilot group or potentially because their baseline results were interpreted in the context of their CVD risk. The effectiveness of CVDRA programmes on reducing incidence diabetes should be formally assessed. Research focusing on risk reduction for Maori aged 35-49 years is recommended.Item Risk for intimate partner violence : an investigation of the psychometric properties of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide in a New Zealand population : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctorate of Clinical Psychology at Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand(Massey University, 2012) Callan-Bartkiw, UvonneInternational and national studies have consistently shown intimate partner violence is a common phenomenon that cuts across all societies, education and socioeconomic levels, and ethnic and cultural groups. The impact of which includes negative physical and mental health consequences for the victims. Risk assessments may play a role in assisting the management and/or prevention of harm. Assessment of an offender’s risk of future violence play a central role in decision making pertaining to that person’s sentencing, community release, case management, and public safety concerns. Yet the assessments also need to ensure that the rights of the individual being assessed are not violated by misclassification. One method for addressing this issue is to ensure that risk assessment measures are accurate, that is, the measure is reliable and valid. In New Zealand to date, no intimate partner violence risk assessment tools have been evaluated. The current study, therefore, aims to fill this void by investigating the reliability and validity of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment (SARA) guide. This was achieved in three parts, using a sample of 43 men recruited from community based stopping violence programmes. Part One evaluated the internal consistency and interrater reliability of the SARA, Part Two evaluated the convergent and discriminant validities, and Part Three, which employed a prospective design with 36 participants from the total sample, evaluated the predictive validity and incremental validity of the dynamic risk factors. The findings indicated that while the internal consistency, and convergent, discriminant, and predictive validates were adequate, the dynamic risk factors did not evidence incremental validity over the static risk factors, and the interrater reliability was variable. In addition, it was found that the source of information provided to the observers impacted on the resulting agreement coefficients. Therefore, before the SARA is implemented as a risk assessment measure in New Zealand methods for improving the interrater reliability and exploration of the usefulness of the dynamic risk factors in reducing risk should be explored.Item The development and validation of a computerised expert system for import risk analysis : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at Massey University(Massey University, 2000) Beckett, Samuel D.Since the establishment of the World Trade Organization, and the need to base trade restrictions that exceed those recommended by the relevant international organisations on a scientific assessment of the risks to human, animal or plant health, import risk analysis has been recognised as a discrete scientific discipline. As such, import risk analysis has seen the trends in methodologies typical of an emerging scientific discipline. The OIE International Animal Health Code chapter on import risk analysis has recently been revised, and the changes made reflect an international move toward a closer adherence to the requirements of the WTO Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, the so-called SPS Agreement. This thesis examines the SPS Agreement and other pertinent components of the current regulatory environment for trade in animal products. The thesis also examines risk analysis methodologies. Fifty-five sample qualitative and quantitative import risk analyses were obtained for review. Methodologies reported in these analyses were evaluated in conjunction with those advocated in the current and previous OIE Code chapters on import risk analysis. The OIE International Aquatic Animal Health Code was also included in the review, since many of the sample analyses were carried out for aquatic animals or products. These evaluations led to a synthesis of existing methodologies for import risk analysis, and the identification of key areas for continued research and development. An expert system was designed and implemented to enable the results of the evaluations to be conveyed to risk analysts. It was envisaged that delivering these results by way of an expert system would enable analysts to carry out risk analyses efficiently and in a structured manner. The expert system was designed in a modular format and by using the object-orientated paradigm. This approach enabled expert knowledge to be stored efficiently, and meant that the system could be easily updated as research in the specified areas continued. The design also meant that the system could be extended to pest risk analysis, or to non-biological disciplines such as actuarial and project risk analysis.