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    The determination of future output from sheep and cattle farms : an investment study : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Agricultural Science in Agricultural Economics and Marketing at Massey University
    (Massey University, 1977) Scott, Michael Edward
    Agricultural supply analysis is concerned with the practical and important problems of explaining historical and predicting future patterns of livestock and crop production. Production at the farm level is the foundation of supply at the regional or national level. Decisions which determine the production of the different agricultural products are made at the individual farm level. The collective results of these decisions are the aggregate supplies which are available for export, local consumption or further processing. The objectives of supply analysis are to answer three questions: Why has production changed in the past? How may aggregate production be expected to change in the future? How may production be expected to respond to alternative controls contemplated by policy makers in Government? In developing countries policy makers need to know what is required to provide sufficient incentive for farmers to expand production. Highly developed countries such as the United States have sometimes suffered from an oversupply of particular products. Policy makers in these countries may need to know how production can be reduced, or diverted to more profitable products.
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    Vertical co-ordination in the New Zealand lamb supply chain : implications for breeders, finishers and processors : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master in Applied Science, Institute of Food, Nutrition and Human Health, Massey University
    (Massey University, 1999) Montes de Oca Munguía, Oscar Efrain
    In 1998, the New Zealand sheep industry exported approximately 347,100 tonnes of sheepmeat to international markets. In 1996, the total number of sheep in the country was 47.3 million head with 9.5 million hectares dedicated to sheep and beef cattle enterprises. Traditionally, sheepmeat has been directed towards commodity markets, but a more recent strategy has been to target premium markets for specialised lamb cuts. Vertical co-ordination among participants in the New Zealand lamb meat supply chain (breeders, finishers, processors, marketers and retailers) is necessary to compete in premium markets overseas. New Zealand's seasonal pastoral systems are characterised by their heavy dependence on external variation (i.e. weather, market prices). Seasonal pasture production determines a well-defined lamb supply pattern and affects the price that farmers receive for their produce. Adequate price setting for vertically co-ordinated participants is therefore necessary in order to achieve a consistent supply of sheepmeat for international markets. Long-term contracts between New Zealand producers and processors would be a feasible vertical co-ordination mechanism. However, contracts can only be established if participants agree on product specifications and price. Farmers therefore need to know their cost of production on a $/kg lamb meat basis in order to be able to negotiate a price for their sheep. The aim of the research was to appraise the importance of vertical co-ordination through forward contracting for the New Zealand lamb industry and to assess measures to control the risk exposure of lamb producers and processors. The research also aimed to provide processors, finishers and breeders with a better understanding of producers' risk-return profiles. The source of physical and financial information was the New Zealand Sheep and Beef Cattle Farm Survey for the 1995-96 season. The software Stockpol® was used to simulate the biological performance of sheep enterprises on different pastoral production systems. Activity-Based Costing (ABC) was then applied to determine cost of lamb production for participants in the supply chain. A discrete stochastic programming (DSP) model was also developed to evaluate the impact of variation in lamb production cost for participants under alternative conditions for business and financial risk. Risk was considered by simulating different weather conditions and by varying biological production and financial parameters. The average cost of production of a kilogram of lamb meat at the farm gate for all farm classes was estimated at NZ$ 2.88. This break-even point is the market price at which direct and overhead expenses, including the cost of capital, are covered. The average price received by farmers for lamb meat during the 1995-96 season analysed was NZ$ 1.97/kg. This price was NZ$2.33 /kg in 1997 and the estimate price for 1998 is NZ$ 2.13 /kg. This cost of production varied for the farm case studies according to their financial structure, biological efficiency parameters (lambing percentage, wool production lamb growth rates) and wool and lamb purchase prices. The simulation results showed that pasture production and utilisation (influenced mainly by weather conditions and farm management skills) has a big impact on the cost of lamb production. The modelling exercise suggested that a mix of contractual arrangements for the premium produce of the farm and spot market bargaining power for the remainder would be the optimum alternative for farm managers. The use of ABC for farm planning purposes can be considered as a means to control both 'risk exposure' and 'risk impacts'. The assessment of cost of production under possible scenarios of DM production could be used to evaluate innovative contractual arrangements between producers and processors. The study showed that supply chain synchronisation in the New Zealand lamb industry is necessary for targeting premium markets, and that a deep knowledge of participants' risk-return profiles is essential for building trust between participants in the supply chain. Traditionally, New Zealand farmers have worked in an adversarial environment, while new market requirements for their products require the opposite. Title: Vertical co-ordination in the New Zealand lamb supply chain: implications for breeders, finishers and processors. Author: Oscar Efraín Montes de Oca Munguía. Year: 1999. Degree: MApplSc (Agricultural Systems and Management).
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    A survey of present and possible future sheep and wool handling practices of North Island farmers running crossbred sheep : a thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Agricultural Science of Massey University
    (Massey University, 1967) Smith, Malcolm Edward
    Any attempt to get farmers to adopt practices which will improve quantity and/or quality of production requires:- A. Techniques to be available which will achieve the improvement, and B. Farmers becoming aware of these techniques, gaining any skills required and actually using the practices. Thus a campaign aimed at improvement in quantity and/or quality of production is dependent upon the results of a two phase attack on the problem. A. A Research phase to discover and make available appropriate techniques, and B. An Extension phase to look after awareness, gaining of necessary skills, and use of the techniques provided by research.