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Modeling the Chaotic Semantic States of Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI): A Quantum Mechanics Analogy Approach
(Association for Computing Machinery, 2025-12-01) Liu T; McIntosh TR; Susnjak T; Watters P; Halgamuge MN
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) models have revolutionized intelligent systems by enabling machines to produce human-like content across diverse domains. However, their outputs often exhibit unpredictability due to complex and opaque internal semantic states, posing challenges for reliability in real-world applications. In this paper, we introduce the AI Uncertainty Principle, a novel theoretical framework inspired by quantum mechanics, to model and quantify the inherent unpredictability in generative AI outputs. By drawing parallels with the uncertainty principle and superposition, we formalize the trade-off between the precision of internal semantic states and output variability. Through comprehensive experiments involving state-of-the-art models and a variety of prompt designs, we analyze how factors such as specificity, complexity, tone, and style influence model behavior. Our results demonstrate that carefully engineered prompts can significantly enhance output predictability and consistency, while excessive complexity or irrelevant information can increase uncertainty. We also show that ensemble techniques, such as Sigma-weighted aggregation across models and prompt variations, effectively improve reliability. Our findings have profound implications for the development of intelligent systems, emphasizing the critical role of prompt engineering and theoretical modeling in creating AI technologies that perceive, reason, and act predictably in the real world.
Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye
(Springer Nature, 2024-06-12) Kilic I; Balli F
In this paper, a new measure for uncertainty that affects the economy is proposed, constructed, and applied to an emerging economy, Türkiye. We have constructed an index of economic country-specific uncertainty (ECSU) that is in line with the methodology used in constructing economic policy uncertainty indexes. As the economic uncertainty is of the Knightian type, the essence of measuring it lies in counting the frequency of joint appearances of words related to economics and uncertainty in Turkish-language newspapers. The uncertainty index constructed using local language sources- Turkish performs significantly better in measuring country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye. However, some indexes use English language sources to measure uncertainty in Türkiye- did not make them country-specific. The ECSU was tested by evaluating the dynamic real effects of the uncertainty. This evaluation was performed by the analysis of impulse responses from uncertainty to some economic variables in a vector autoregressive model describing the economy of Türkiye. We find that an unexpected increase in uncertainty in the Turkish-language press is related to decreases in industrial production, employment, and trade. If the uncertainty measure is based on the articles from the English-language press only, no such relationship can be confirmed. We also find that an increase in uncertainty leads to increase in inflation and stock and oil prices.
How Visual Design of Severe Weather Outlooks Can Affect Communication and Decision-Making
(American Meteorological Society, 2023-10-16) Clive MAT; Doyle EEH; Potter SH; Noble C; Johnston DM
Multiday severe weather outlooks can inform planning beyond the hour-to-day windows of warnings and watches. Outlooks can be complex to visualize, as they represent large-scale weather phenomena overlapping across several days at varying levels of uncertainty. Here, we present the results of a survey (n 5 417) that explores how visual varia-bles affect comprehension, inferences, and intended decision-making in a hypothetical scenario with the New Zealand MetService Severe Weather Outlook. We propose that visualization of the time window, forecast area, icons, and uncertainty can influence perceptions and decision-making based on four key findings. First, composite-style outlooks that depict multiple days of weather on one map can lead to biased perceptions of the forecast. When responding to questions about a day for which participants accurately reported there was no severe weather forecast, those who viewed a composite outlook reported higher likelihoods of severe weather occurring, higher levels of concern about travel, and higher likelihoods of changing plans compared to those who viewed outlooks that showed weather for each day on a separate map, suggesting that they perceived the forecast to underrepresent the likelihood of severe weather on that day. Second, presenting uncertainty in an extrinsic way (e.g., “low”) can lead to more accurate estimates of likelihood than intrinsic formats (e.g., hue variation). Third, shaded forecast areas may lead to higher levels of confidence in the forecast than outlined forecast areas. Fourth, inclusion of weather icons can improve comprehension in some conditions. The results demonstrate how visualization can affect decision-making about severe weather and support several evidence-based considerations for effective design of long-term forecasts.
Where does scientific uncertainty come from, and from whom? Mapping perspectives of natural hazards science advice
(Elsevier, 2023-10-01) Doyle EEH; Thompson J; Hill S; Williams M; Paton D; Harrison S; Bostrom A; Becker J
The science associated with assessing natural hazard phenomena and the risks they pose contains many layers of complex and interacting elements, resulting in diverse sources of uncertainty. This creates a challenge for effective communication, which must consider how people perceive that uncertainty. Thus, we conducted twenty-five mental model interviews in Aotearoa New Zealand with participants ranging from scientists to policy writers and emergency managers, and through to the public. The interviews included three phases: an initial elicitation of free thoughts about uncertainty, a mental model mapping activity, and a semi-structured interview protocol to explore further questions about scientific processes and their personal philosophy of science. Qualitative analysis led to the construction of key themes, including: (a) understanding that, in addition to data sources, the ‘actors’ involved can also be sources of uncertainty; (b) acknowledging that factors such as governance and funding decisions partly determine uncertainty; (c) the influence of assumptions about expected human behaviours contributing to “known unknowns'; and (d) the difficulty of defining what uncertainty actually is. Participants additionally highlighted the positive role of uncertainty for promoting debate and as a catalyst for further inquiry. They also demonstrated a level of comfort with uncertainty and advocated for ‘sitting with uncertainty’ for transparent reporting in advice. Additional influences included: an individual's understanding of societal factors; the role of emotions; using outcomes as a scaffold for interpretation; and the complex and noisy communications landscape. Each of these require further investigation to enhance the communication of scientific uncertainty.
Essays on spillover effects of economic and geopolitical uncertainty : a thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Finance at Massey University, Auckland (Albany), New Zealand
(Massey University, 2020) Hasan, Mudassar
We are living in an age of uncertainty. While uncertainty can originate from multiple sources, the most prominent ones include economic policies and geopolitical conditions. Over the past two decades, geopolitical and economic policy uncertainties have risen dramatically around the globe, raising concerns among policymakers and financial market participants about the cross-country and cross-market transmission effects of these uncertainties. Consequently, a growing body of literature has emerged around the measurement of uncertainty, the cross-country transmission of uncertainty, and the spillover effects of a given uncertainty for financial markets. By offering several advantages over other measures of uncertainty, news-based uncertainty indicators have become increasingly popular since the seminal work by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016). As the transmission of geopolitical uncertainty across countries and that of economic policy uncertainty to financial markets carry important implications for risk-management and policy-making decisions, it is crucial to understand and explain the behavior of these transmission mechanisms. By relying on news-based indicators of geopolitical and economic policy uncertainty, this thesis contributes to the literature by exploring the potential determinants of uncertainty transmission to stock markets as well as across countries. The first essay estimates and explains the cross-country transmission of geopolitical uncertainty (GPU). Using the news-based GPU indices for a sample of emerging economies along with the United States, the spillover models are employed to measure the pairwise and system-wide transmission of GPU. A substantial amount of GPU transmission is found across the sample countries, with some countries and geographical clusters are being more prominent than others. A cross-sectional analysis, motivated by a gravity model framework, is further utilized to explain the pairwise transmission of GPU, which reveals that bilateral linkages and country-specific factors play an essential role in driving the transmission of GPU. The overall findings continue to hold even after considering the short- and long-term time horizons. The findings of this essay may help predict the trajectory of GPU from one country to another, which is an essential input for the assessment of cross-border investment appraisals as well as international stability initiatives. A bulk of the literature has examined the impact of US uncertainty on international stock markets without paying much attention to the correlation between the US and the other stock markets. Motivated by this void in the extant literature, the second essay examines the role of US uncertainty in driving the US stock market’s spillovers to global stock markets, after controlling for the stock market correlation. To this end, I consider a wide range of stock markets around the world, as well as three news-based uncertainties from the US, namely economic policy uncertainty (EPU), equity market uncertainty, and equity market volatility. I find that the US uncertainties significantly cause the spillovers from the US to global stock markets. This causality from US uncertainties depends upon certain country-characteristics. Specifically, the US uncertainties explain better the spillovers between US and target countries, when those countries have a higher degree of financial openness, trade linkage with the US, and vulnerable fiscal position. Improved levels of stock market development in the target countries, however, mitigate their stock markets’ vulnerability to the US uncertainty shocks. The essay offers potential insights and implications for investors and policymakers. Inspired by the concerns that small open economies may well be more vulnerable to foreign uncertainty than to local uncertainty, the third essay focuses on New Zealand, which is a small open economy. This essay introduces a weekly EPU index for New Zealand and, and examines the return and volatility spillovers from NZ EPU and US EPU on the aggregate (NZSE) and sectoral indices of New Zealand stock market. Overall, the findings suggest that NZ equity sectors and NZSE receive much stronger and more pronounced spillover effects from US EPU compared to the local counterpart. While the return spillovers from both EPUs are somewhat similar yet limited to just a few sectors, the volatility spillovers from US EPU on NZ sectors outstrip those from the NZ EPU. For volatility spillovers, the domestically oriented sectors are relatively more vulnerable to NZ EPU, while those having export/import concentration with the US are mainly susceptible to US EPU. The findings of this essay may be useful to investors seeking sectoral diversification opportunities across New Zealand and the US.
Reverse logistics optimization-- a research to the uncertainties in the third party reverse logistics : case of New Zealand Couriers Ltd : a thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Logistics and Supply Chain Management at Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand
(Massey University, 2011) Wang, Michael
During the past decade, there has been an increasing emphasis on supply chain management as a vehicle through which firms can achieve competitiveness in markets (Porter, 1998). A large number of example in the 1990s show how companies have made large investments to streamline their supply chains in order to improve customer satisfaction and increase their internal productivity (Christopher, 1998). The core of this research is to explore the uncertainties in 3PLs reverse logistics. The uncertainty is one of the significant factors, which directly influence the performance of supply chain system (Chopra & Meindl, 2004). There are many researches and theories about the uncertainties in traditional forward logistics; however, there has been limited attention to theory-based research in the returns management arena (Jahre, 1995a; Carter and Ellram, 1998; Daugherty et al., 2001). Managing these returns is known as reverse logistics (Louise, 2010). With the development of economics, the 3PLs reverse logistics will play an increasingly important role in the supply chain system; therefore it is necessary to consider how to improve the 3PLs reverse logistics. This research focuses on the case of New Zealand Couriers, which is Freightways' flagship brand, is positioned as the premier provider of network courier services to New Zealand businesses. Since 1964 New Zealand Couriers Limited has been the leading Courier Company. Case study is one of the significant qualitative research methods, tending to provide in depth information and intimate details about the particular case being studied. This research concerns the reverse logistics in third party logistics companies. Outsourcing already became one of the significant trends in today’s logistics and supply chain industry, and the third party logistics company (3PLs) is originally the outcome of the outsourcing logistics function in businesses. Therefore the findings of researching the third party logistics company could have high level of external validity (Cameron & Price, 2009) and the results can be widely applied in many other companies.
Strategies, uncertainty and performance of small business startups
(Kluwer, 2000) Van Gelderen, Marco; Frese, Michael; Thurik, Roy
Personal strategies of owners/founders of small business startups are related to performance and to environmental uncertainty. This is done using a longitudinal data set. Personal strategies are operationalized by a behavioral measure of the manners in which small business founders deal with situations. The results suggest a dynamic process between strategy and performance. Business owners that perform poorly employ a Reactive Strategy, with poor performance leading to increased use of reactive behavior. High performing business owners start out focussing on the most crucial issues (Critical Point Strategy), with high performance leading to a more top-down (Complete Planning) approach. These relations are controlled for characteristics of the environment of the firm. Strategy use is dependent upon the type and level of environmental uncertainty. Complete Planning strategy is used less frequently in a fast changing environment and more often in a complex environment. Use of Opportunistic Strategy is negatively related to the complexity of the environment, while the Reactive Strategy is used more frequently in a non-munificent environment.
Sensitivity to Volcanic Field Boundary
(17/04/2016) Whitehead M; Bebbington M; Cronin S; Moufti MR; Lindsay J
Volcanic hazard analyses are desirable where there is potential for future volcanic activity to affect a proximal population. This is frequently the case for volcanic fields (regions of distributed volcanism) where low eruption rates, fertile soil, and attractive landscapes draw populations to live close by. Forecasting future activity in volcanic fields almost invariably uses spatial or spatio-temporal point processes with model selection and development based on exploratory analyses of previous eruption data. For identifiability reasons, spatio-temporal processes, and practically also spatial processes, the definition of a spatial region is required to which volcanism is confined. However, due to the complex and predominantly unknown sub-surface processes driving volcanic eruptions, definition of a region based solely on geological information is currently impossible. Thus, the current approach is to fit a shape to the known previous eruption sites. The class of boundary shape is an unavoidable subjective decision taken by the forecaster that is often overlooked during subsequent analysis of results. This study shows the substantial effect that this choice may have on even the simplest exploratory methods for hazard forecasting, illustrated using four commonly used exploratory statistical methods and two very different regions: the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, and Harrat Rahat, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. For Harrat Rahat, sensitivity of results to boundary definition is substantial. For the Auckland Volcanic Field, the range of options resulted in similar shapes, nevertheless, some of the statistical tests still showed substantial variation in results. This work highlights the fact that when carrying out any hazard analysis on volcanic fields, it is vital to specify how the volcanic field boundary has been defined, assess the sensitivity of boundary choice, and to carry these assumptions and related uncertainties through to estimates of future activity and hazard analyses.
Uncertainty in policy: Implications for practice
(Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, 2015-11) Nicklin GM; Boston, J; Ryan, B

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