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    Short-Term Eruption Forecasting for Crisis Decision-Support in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand
    (Frontiers Media S.A., 2022-05-24) Wild AJ; Bebbington MS; Lindsay JM; Wright HM
    Auckland, a city of 1.6 million people, is situated atop the active monogenetic Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). Thus, short-term eruption forecasting is critical to support crisis management in a future event, especially to inform decisions such as calling evacuations. Here we present an updated BET_EF for the AVF incorporating new data and the results of an expert-opinion workshop, and test the performance of the resulting BETEF_AVF on eight hypothetical eruption scenarios with pre-eruptive sequences. We carry out a sensitivity analysis into the selection of prior distributions for key model parameters to explore the utility of using BET_EF outputs as a potential input for evacuation decision making in areas of distributed volcanism such as the AVF. BETEF_AVF performed well based on the synthetic unrest dataset for assessing the probability of eruption, with the vent outbreaks eventuating within the zone of high spatial likelihood. Our analysis found that the selection of different spatial prior model inputs affects the estimated vent location due to the weighting between prior models and monitoring inputs within the BET_EF, which as unrest escalates may not be appropriate for distributed volcanic fields. This issue is compounded when the outputs are combined with cost-benefit analysis to inform evacuation decisions, leading to areas well beyond those with observed precursory activity being included in evacuation zones. We find that several default settings used in past work for the application of BET_EF and CBA to inform evacuation decision-support are not suitable for distributed volcanism; in particular, the default 50-50 weighting between priors and monitoring inputs for assessing spatial vent location does not produce useful results. We conclude by suggesting future cost-benefit analysis applications in volcanic fields appropriately consider the spatial and temporal variability and uncertainty characteristic of such systems.
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    The impact of Earthquakes on apartment owners and renters in te Whanganui-a-Tara (Wellington) aotearoa New Zealand
    (MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2021-08-01) Blake D; Becker JS; Hodgetts D; Elwood KJ
    Apartment dwelling is on the increase in many cities in Aotearoa New Zealand, including those in earthquake-prone regions. Hence it is important that people working in disaster management and housing improve their understanding on how the living situations of apartment dwellers influence their disaster management practices. This knowledge is crucial for efforts to promote safety and preparedness. This paper explores what enables and constrains apartment dwellers in their ability to prepare for an earthquake. Eighteen people were interviewed who resided in Te Whanganui-a-Tara (Wellington) two years after the 2016 7.8 magnitude (Mw) Kaikōura earthquake. Of central concern was people’s ability to prepare for disasters and access knowledge about building and structural safety and how this knowledge mattered to what apartment dwellers were able to prepare for. We found that the agency to prepare was dependent on whether people owned or rented their dwellings. We report on participant accounts of dealing with body corporations, landlords, emergency kits, other emergency items, and evacuation plans.
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    Learning from population displacement in the Pacific: case study of the 2017-2018 eruption of Ambae volcano, Vanuatu. SWOT analysis and recommendations.
    (Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University, 2020-11-04) Rovins J; Stewart C; Brown N
    The 2017-2018 eruption of Ambae volcano, Vanuatu, caused the entire population of the island (~11,700 people) to be evacuated off-island twice: firstly in October 2017, and then from the end of July 2018 until the end of October 2018, when the eruption ceased. This event presents a valuable opportunity to learn from a large-scale forced migration in a Pacific setting. Lessons from this event will advise and help to plan for future population displacements and forced migrations due to hazard and climate change events. For the first phase of this report, a review and analysis of the literature on internally displaced people was carried out, and used as the basis to design a questionnaire. Our field team visited the island of Santo, the destination for the majority of evacuees from Ambae, in February 2020, and carried out interviews with 42 evacuees, 26 female and 16 male, ranging in age from 21 to 82 over a four-day period. This report contains an event summary; a description of the research; a SWOT analysis; a discussion of key findings; recommendations; and an identification of future research needs.
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    Understanding residents’ capacities to support evacuated populations : A study of earthquake and tsunami evacuation for Napier Hill, Napier, Aotearoa New Zealand.
    (Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University, 2019-12-19) Payne B; Becker J; Kaiser L
    Due to a large regional subduction zone (the Hikurangi subduction zone) and localised faults, Napier City located on the East Coast of Aotearoa/New Zealand is vulnerable to earthquake and tsunami events. On feeling a long or strong earthquake people will need to evacuate immediately inland or to higher ground to avoid being impacted by a tsunami, of which the first waves could start to arrive within 20 minutes (based on the Hikurangi earthquake and tsunami scenario presented in Power et al., 2018). Napier Hill is one such area of higher land, and it is estimated that up to 12,000 people could evacuate there in the 20 minutes following a long or strong earthquake. To understand the capacity of Napier Hill residents to support evacuees, three focus groups were held with a diverse sample of residents from Napier Hill on 21 and 22 July 2019. A follow up email was sent to all participants a week after the focus groups, containing a link to a short six question survey, which was completed by 68 people, most of whom were additional to the focus group attendees. Data from the focus groups and the survey was analysed qualitatively using thematic analysis. The findings highlight that in general people were happy to host evacuees and offer support if they were in a position to do so. However, key issues in being able to offer support included the likely lack of resources available after a disaster, ranging from basic needs though to agency support. The research findings will directly inform Napier City Council and Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Group’s planning for future readiness and response by providing valuable insights for evacuation planning