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    Wild bovid habitat and infectious disease risk in Thailand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Veterinary Science, School of Veterinary Sciences, Massey University
    (Massey University, 2024-11-07) Horpiencharoen, Wantida
    Wild bovids are a diverse group of typically large, hoofed ruminant mammals that play crucial functions in ecosystems as seed transporters and prey for predators to maintain biodiversity. However, their conservation status varies from least concern to critically endangered with extinction, depending on the regions and remaining population. The expansion of agricultural areas and livestock farming has led to habitat loss and natural resource sharing, likely increasing the risk of disease transmission and pathogen circulation between humans, wildlife, and domestic animals at the shared habitats or the interface areas. This thesis aims to identify the habitat suitability of five wild bovids remaining in Thailand, understand the consequences of introducing infectious disease into the population, and identify where there is a risk of disease transmission. Therefore, three main studies were conducted: 1) identifying suitable areas for five wild bovid species, including gaur, banteng, wild water buffalo, mainland serow and Chinese goral in Thailand; 2) simulating the impact of infectious diseases of cattle on wild bovid populations, and; 3) mapping potential risk areas between wild bovids and cattle. Initially, I used ecological niche modelling to identify the habitat suitability of five wild bovids remaining in Thailand. Due to poor model predictions for two species (mainland serow and Chinese goral), I excluded these two models from further analyses. The results indicated that over 50% of the potentially suitable areas for the three modelled species (gaur, banteng, wild water buffalo) were located outside protected areas close to human populations and agricultural areas. Then, I simulated the number of animals in a model gaur population with and without infections over 100 years with 100 repetitions using stochastic mathematical models. I selected six bovine infectious diseases with different traits, such as incubation and infectious periods or fatality probabilities, including anthrax, bovine tuberculosis, haemorrhagic septicaemia, lumpy skin disease, foot and mouth disease and brucellosis. I introduced an individual infected animal into a closed population for each infectious disease. The disease-free gaur population grew over time, with infections with different traits having different impacts. The populations infected with chronic diseases (e.g. bovine tuberculosis and bovine brucellosis) showed the greatest decline, while diseases with high mortality but acute disease or high transmission rates with low mortality had less impact on the populations. Finally, I mapped the potential risk areas for disease transmission, assuming that high cattle density and habitat suitability increased transmission risk between wild bovids and livestock. The results also indicated that the potential high-risk areas were at the interface areas at the forest edges where interactions between wildlife and cattle occur. All my studies and findings will require further investigation and validation to gain a deeper and better understanding of the complexity of infectious diseases within wildlife populations and the dynamics of their distributions, but they contribute to supporting wildlife conservation and implementing disease mitigation measures to prevent disease transmission among the populations by highlighting where wild bovids might have suitable habitat, what types of infections may be problems and where mitigation may be better targeted.
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    Mapping threatened Thai bovids provides opportunities for improved conservation outcomes in Asia.
    (The Royal Society, 2024-09-25) Horpiencharoen W; Muylaert RL; Marshall JC; John RS; Lynam AJ; Riggio A; Godfrey A; Ngoprasert D; Gale GA; Ash E; Bisi F; Cremonesi G; Clements GR; Yindee M; Shwe NM; Pin C; Gray TNE; Aung SS; Nakbun S; Manka SG; Steinmetz R; Phoonjampa R; Seuaturien N; Phumanee W; Hayman DTS
    Wild bovids provide important ecosystem functions as seed dispersers and vegetation modifiers. Five wild bovids remain in Thailand: gaur (Bos gaurus), banteng (Bos javanicus), wild water buffalo (Bubalus arnee), mainland serow (Capricornis sumatraensis) and Chinese goral (Naemorhedus griseus). Their populations and habitats have declined substantially and become fragmented by land-use change. We use ecological niche models to quantify how much potential suitable habitat for these species remains within protected areas in Asia and then specifically Thailand. We combined species occurrence data from several sources (e.g. mainly camera traps and direct observation) with environmental variables and species-specific and single, large accessible areas in ensemble models to generate suitability maps, using out-of-sample predictions to validate model performance against new independent data. Gaur, banteng and buffalo models showed reasonable model accuracy throughout the entire distribution (greater than or equal to 62%) and in Thailand (greater than or equal to 80%), whereas serow and goral models performed poorly for the entire distribution and in Thailand, though 5 km movement buffers markedly improved the performance for serow. Large suitable areas were identified in Thailand and India for gaur, Cambodia and Thailand for banteng and India for buffalo. Over 50% of suitable habitat is located outside protected areas, highlighting the need for habitat management and conflict mitigation outside protected areas.
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    Impact of infectious diseases on wild bovidae populations in Thailand: insights from population modelling and disease dynamics.
    (The Royal Society, 2024-07-03) Horpiencharoen W; Marshall JC; Muylaert RL; John RS; Hayman DTS
    The wildlife and livestock interface is vital for wildlife conservation and habitat management. Infectious diseases maintained by domestic species may impact threatened species such as Asian bovids, as they share natural resources and habitats. To predict the population impact of infectious diseases with different traits, we used stochastic mathematical models to simulate the population dynamics over 100 years for 100 times in a model gaur (Bos gaurus) population with and without disease. We simulated repeated introductions from a reservoir, such as domestic cattle. We selected six bovine infectious diseases; anthrax, bovine tuberculosis, haemorrhagic septicaemia, lumpy skin disease, foot and mouth disease and brucellosis, all of which have caused outbreaks in wildlife populations. From a starting population of 300, the disease-free population increased by an average of 228% over 100 years. Brucellosis with frequency-dependent transmission showed the highest average population declines (-97%), with population extinction occurring 16% of the time. Foot and mouth disease with frequency-dependent transmission showed the lowest impact, with an average population increase of 200%. Overall, acute infections with very high or low fatality had the lowest impact, whereas chronic infections produced the greatest population decline. These results may help disease management and surveillance strategies support wildlife conservation.
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    Anthropogenic mortality of large mammals and trends of conflict over two decades in Nepal
    (John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2022-10-03) Baral K; Bhandari S; Adhikari B; Kunwar RM; Sharma HP; Aryal A; Ji W
    Wildlife conservation in human-dominated landscapes faces increased challenges due to rising conflicts between humans and wildlife. We investigated the human and wildlife loss rates due to human-wildlife conflict between 2000 and 2020 in Nepal. We concentrated on Asian elephant (Elephas maximus), greater one-horned rhino (Rhinoceros unicornis), tiger (Panthera tigirs), and leopard (Panthera pardus) mortality, as well as human mortality caused by these species. Over the 21-year period, we recorded 1139 cases of wildlife mortality and 887 cases of human mortality. Leopard mortality was the highest, followed by that of greater one-horned rhinos, tigers, and Asian elephants. Overall, the rate of wildlife mortality has been increasing over the years. Asian elephants were found to be more responsible for crop damage than greater one-horned rhinos, while leopards were found to be more responsible for livestock depredation than tigers. The generalized linear model indicated that the mortality of wildlife in the districts is best predicted by the additive effect of human mortality, the proportion of agricultural land, and the literacy rate of the districts. Retaliatory wildlife mortality was the most challenging issue for wildlife conservation, especially for the large mammals. Findings from this study are important for mitigation of human-wildlife conflicts, controlling retaliatory killing, and conserving these threatened large mammals.