Browsing by Author "Han J-H"

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    Effect of a Mismatched Vaccine against the Outbreak of a Novel FMD Strain in a Pig Population
    (MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2023-10-02) Han J-H; Yoo D-S; Lee C-M; Isabel H-P
    In December 2014, a novel foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus was introduced to a pig farm in South Korea, despite the animals being vaccinated. A marginal antigenic matching between the novel and vaccine strains potentially led to the infection of the vaccinated animals. To understand the impact of using an FMD vaccine on the transmission dynamics of an unmatched field strain, simulation models were employed using daily reported data on clinical cases from the farm. The results of this study indicated that immunisation with the FMD vaccine reduced the shedding of the novel FMD virus in pigs. However, there was no evidence to suggest that the immunisation had a significant effect in reducing the development of clinical signs. These findings highlight that the use of an unmatched FMD vaccine can confound the outbreak by altering the disease dynamics of the novel virus. Based on this study, we emphasise the importance of continuous testing to ensure antigenic matching between the circulating strains and the vaccine pool.
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    Probability of freedom from foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype Asia 1 in Southeast Asia, China and Mongolia
    (Elsevier B V, 2025-11-01) Wada M; Han J-H; Purevsuren B; Rinzin K; Sutar A; Abila R; Subharat S
    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) serotype Asia 1 has not been reported in Southeast Asia, China and Mongolia between 2018 and 2024, despite the endemicity of FMD in this region and the continued circulation of serotype Asia 1 in South Asia. While vaccines against Asia 1 are still occasionally used in this region, it is unknown whether the absence of reports indicates true disease freedom or surveillance gaps. This study aimed to estimate the sensitivity of existing passive surveillance systems, and the probability of regional freedom from serotype Asia 1 across eight countries using the scenario tree approach. Two stochastic scenario tree models were developed to estimate surveillance sensitivity for FMD (any serotypes) and serotype Asia 1 specifically. Country-specific input parameters were derived from a questionnaire survey of in-country experts on FMD vaccination practices, smallholders’ behaviour, sampling protocols and diagnostic laboratory capacity. Additionally, 2010 – 2022 data on FMD clinical samples submitted and confirmed Asia 1 cases were obtained from the World Reference Laboratory for FMD. Under a design annual incidence rate of 10 % at the village level and 20 % at the animal level, estimated surveillance sensitivity for FMD ranged from 100.0 % in Mongolia and 95.9 % in China to 1.7 % in Cambodia and < 0.1 % in Myanmar. Using the effective design incidence rate with a median of 0.02 – 0.07 % at the village level and 20 % at the animal level, the probability of detecting Asia 1 was estimated to be 0.0 – 6.7 % per country and 14.5 % for the region. The estimated probability of regional freedom from Asia 1 was 53.9 % after the first year without reporting. Over years of no reporting, this probability would increase, only if an annual risk of introduction remained below 6 %. The results were most sensitive to parameters related to sampling intensity and smallholders’ behaviour, particularly in countries with high surveillance sensitivity, such as Mongolia and China. Our findings highlight the low sensitivity of passive surveillance in the region, suggesting that serotype Asia 1 may have remained undetected under the current surveillance efforts. Strengthening data collection and continued efforts in increasing surveillance intensity are essential to improving confidence in the regional freedom from serotype Asia 1.
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    The EpiCentre: redefining the future of animal health.
    (American Veterinary Medical Association, 2024-11-07) Cogger N; Vallee E; Subharat S; Wada M; Sujau M; Han J-H; Isaksen KE; Compton CWR