Browsing by Author "Nguyen NH"
Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
Results Per Page
Sort Options
- ItemAerospace competition, investor attention, and stock return comovement(Elsevier, 2023-09-14) Do X; Nguyen NH; Nguyen QMP; Truong CFierce aerospace competition among global superpowers has resulted in strong public attention on satellite launch events in the U.S. Given limited attentional resources, U.S. investors pay more attention to market-level shocks than to firm-specific shocks, making stock returns comove more with the market on satellite launch days than on other days. We find that the effect is significantly stronger for military-related satellite launches, launches before the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, and international satellite launches by other competitors, highlighting a greater concern for national security. A trading strategy that exploits the potential satellite-induced mispricing yields an annualized abnormal risk-adjusted return of up to 17% within the three-day window around launch date. Our results are robust to a battery of robustness analyses that consider the different characteristics of satellite launches, the exclusion of aerospace firms, and stock return comovement with industries.
- ItemAre individual stock returns predictable?(SAGE Publications on behalf of the University of New South Wales, 2022-02) Zeng H; Marshall BR; Nguyen NH; Visaltanachoti NWe show that the previously documented predictability of macroeconomic and technical variables for market returns is also evident in individual stock returns. Technical variables generate better predictability on firms with high limits to arbitrage (small, illiquid, volatile firms), while macroeconomic variables better predict firms with low limits to arbitrage. Technical predictors show a stronger predictive power for high limits to arbitrage firms across the business cycle, whereas macroeconomic variables capture more predictive information for firms with low limits to arbitrage during recessions.
- ItemAsymmetric trading responses to credit rating announcements from issuer- versus investor-paid rating agencies(John Wiley and Sons, Ltd, 2024-01) Nguyen QMP; Do HX; Molchanov A; Nguyen L; Nguyen NHThe credit rating industry has traditionally followed the “issuer-pays” principle. Issuer-paid credit rating agencies (CRAs) have faced criticism regarding their untimely release of negative rating adjustments, which is attributed to a conflict of interests in their business model. An alternative model based on the “investor-pays” principle is arguably less subject to the conflict of interest problem. We examine how investors respond to changes in credit ratings issued by these two types of CRAs. We find that investors react asymmetrically: They abnormally sell equity stakes around rating downgrades by investor-paid CRAs, while abnormally buying around rating upgrades by issuer-paid CRAs. Our study suggests that, through their trades, investors capitalize on value-relevant information provided by both types of CRAs, and a dynamic trading strategy taking advantage of this information generates significant abnormal returns.
- ItemEstimating Long-Term Expected Returns(Taylor and Francis Group, 2024-07-01) Ma R; Marshall BR; Nguyen NH; Visaltanachoti NEstimating long-term expected returns as accurately as possible is of critical importance. Researchers typically base their estimates on yield and growth, valuation, or a combined yield, growth, and valuation (“three-component”) framework. We run a horse race of the abilities of different frameworks and input proxies within each framework to estimate 10- and 20-year out-of-sample returns. The three-component model based on the TRCAPE valuation proxy outperforms estimates based on historical mean benchmark returns, with mean square error improvements exceeding 30%. Using this approach in asset allocation decisions results in an improvement in Sharpe ratios of more than 50%.
- ItemWhat influences demand for Buy Now, Pay Later credit?(Elsevier B V, 2024-09) Chen T; Marshall BR; Nguyen NH; Visaltanachoti NWe investigate the determinants of demand for Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) credit using a comprehensive database from New Zealand. We consider both absolute demand and relative to total personal lending demand. The results indicate that BNPL is more popular with single individuals, younger people, and those on lower incomes. There is a negative relation between absolute and relative BNPL demand and interest rates. BNPL demand was reduced during the period around responsible lending legislation changes, even though these were not specifically related to BNPL, while demand increased following the end of COVID-19 lockdowns.