Browsing by Author "Nguyen NH"

Now showing 1 - 9 of 9
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    Aerospace competition, investor attention, and stock return comovement
    (Elsevier, 2023-09-14) Do X; Nguyen NH; Nguyen QMP; Truong C
    Fierce aerospace competition among global superpowers has resulted in strong public attention on satellite launch events in the U.S. Given limited attentional resources, U.S. investors pay more attention to market-level shocks than to firm-specific shocks, making stock returns comove more with the market on satellite launch days than on other days. We find that the effect is significantly stronger for military-related satellite launches, launches before the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, and international satellite launches by other competitors, highlighting a greater concern for national security. A trading strategy that exploits the potential satellite-induced mispricing yields an annualized abnormal risk-adjusted return of up to 17% within the three-day window around launch date. Our results are robust to a battery of robustness analyses that consider the different characteristics of satellite launches, the exclusion of aerospace firms, and stock return comovement with industries.
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    Are individual stock returns predictable?
    (SAGE Publications on behalf of the University of New South Wales, 2022-02) Zeng H; Marshall BR; Nguyen NH; Visaltanachoti N
    We show that the previously documented predictability of macroeconomic and technical variables for market returns is also evident in individual stock returns. Technical variables generate better predictability on firms with high limits to arbitrage (small, illiquid, volatile firms), while macroeconomic variables better predict firms with low limits to arbitrage. Technical predictors show a stronger predictive power for high limits to arbitrage firms across the business cycle, whereas macroeconomic variables capture more predictive information for firms with low limits to arbitrage during recessions.
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    Asymmetric trading responses to credit rating announcements from issuer- versus investor-paid rating agencies
    (John Wiley and Sons, Ltd, 2024-01) Nguyen QMP; Do HX; Molchanov A; Nguyen L; Nguyen NH
    The credit rating industry has traditionally followed the “issuer-pays” principle. Issuer-paid credit rating agencies (CRAs) have faced criticism regarding their untimely release of negative rating adjustments, which is attributed to a conflict of interests in their business model. An alternative model based on the “investor-pays” principle is arguably less subject to the conflict of interest problem. We examine how investors respond to changes in credit ratings issued by these two types of CRAs. We find that investors react asymmetrically: They abnormally sell equity stakes around rating downgrades by investor-paid CRAs, while abnormally buying around rating upgrades by issuer-paid CRAs. Our study suggests that, through their trades, investors capitalize on value-relevant information provided by both types of CRAs, and a dynamic trading strategy taking advantage of this information generates significant abnormal returns.
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    Broker and institutional investor short selling
    (John Wiley and Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, 2024-09-20) Marshall BR; Nguyen NH; Visaltanachoti N; Zhu J
    Brokers have access to order-flow data, which they can use to enhance their short-selling returns. However, New Zealand brokers also have a fiduciary duty to place their clients' interests before their own. We compare the short-selling returns and trading behaviours of brokers and institutional investors who predominantly focus on profit-making. Our results show no significant return difference between broker and institutional short sales and indicate that broker short sales are apparently to stabilise the market. Short selling is associated with improved market quality, and this improvement is more pronounced when brokers short sell more than institutional investors.
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    Estimating Long-Term Expected Returns
    (Taylor and Francis Group, 2024-07-01) Ma R; Marshall BR; Nguyen NH; Visaltanachoti N
    Estimating long-term expected returns as accurately as possible is of critical importance. Researchers typically base their estimates on yield and growth, valuation, or a combined yield, growth, and valuation (“three-component”) framework. We run a horse race of the abilities of different frameworks and input proxies within each framework to estimate 10- and 20-year out-of-sample returns. The three-component model based on the TRCAPE valuation proxy outperforms estimates based on historical mean benchmark returns, with mean square error improvements exceeding 30%. Using this approach in asset allocation decisions results in an improvement in Sharpe ratios of more than 50%.
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    Improving momentum returns using generalized linear models
    (John Wiley and Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of International Review of Finance Ltd, 2025-06) Zeng H; Marshall BR; Nguyen NH; Visaltanachoti N
    We estimate the enduring momentum probabilities of past winners and losers continuing as future winners and losers by incorporating a comprehensive set of firm characteristics. Our results reveal that combining the price momentum signals and enduring momentum probabilities generates returns double those of the traditional price momentum strategy. Furthermore, the robust performance of the enduring momentum strategy cannot be fully attributed to factors such as seasonality, limits to arbitrage, and transaction costs.
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    Insider trading and climate disasters
    (Elsevier Inc, 2024-09) Ma R; Marshall BR; Nguyen HT; Nguyen NH; Visaltanachoti N
    Climate disasters are increasing in frequency and severity. While a large body of research has shown that extreme climate affects various economic decisions, how climate events influence investment decisions remains largely under-investigated. This paper examines whether, and to what extent, climate disasters influence insider transactions, which are important investment decisions that attract increasing attention from both corporate management and policymakers. We find that the monthly value of insider trades increases markedly in firms headquartered in counties with a climate disaster. Climate-induced insider trading holds in general but is stronger when investors are distracted and less prevalent when insiders face higher litigation risk. Climate disasters trigger uncertainty about short-term firm fundamentals, and insiders benefit by selling prior to this being priced. Insiders living in disaster counties do not trade more than those in unaffected counties, which does not support a personal liquidity motivation. Our paper documents a new way through which climate impacts investor behavior and financial markets.
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    What influences demand for Buy Now, Pay Later credit?
    (Elsevier B V, 2024-09) Chen T; Marshall BR; Nguyen NH; Visaltanachoti N
    We investigate the determinants of demand for Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) credit using a comprehensive database from New Zealand. We consider both absolute demand and relative to total personal lending demand. The results indicate that BNPL is more popular with single individuals, younger people, and those on lower incomes. There is a negative relation between absolute and relative BNPL demand and interest rates. BNPL demand was reduced during the period around responsible lending legislation changes, even though these were not specifically related to BNPL, while demand increased following the end of COVID-19 lockdowns.
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    When Hollywood movies steal the show, stock returns dance more with the market!
    (Elsevier Inc, 2024-10) Do HX; Nguyen NH; Nguyen QMP; Nguyen TVH; Truong C
    Hollywood film releases attract U.S. investors' attention away from the financial markets. This is reflected in lower trading activity and abnormal Google search volume for firm names between film and non-film days. The resultant investor inattention leads to a significantly higher stock return comovement with the market on film release days. Interestingly, films with A-list star actors and blockbuster movies exhibit a more pronounced impact than their counterparts. Finally, we show that being aware of this Hollywood film-induced mispricing can yield an annualized abnormal risk-adjusted return of up to 13.5% within five days around the release events.