Massey Research Online - Browsing by Author "Stewart C"

Browsing by Author "Stewart C"

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A new mapping tool to visualise critical infrastructure levels of service following a major earthquake
(Elsevier B.V., 2024-01) Mowll R; Anderson MJ; Logan TM; Becker JS; Wotherspoon LM; Stewart C; Johnston D; Neely D
How can emergency management teams communicate to potentially impacted communities what a major event causing infrastructure outages might mean for them, and what they can do to prepare? In this paper we describe the process of creating a webtool for end users to visualise infrastructure outages that the Wellington region of New Zealand would face following a rupture of the Wellington fault. This webtool creates insight for three key groups: critical infrastructure owners, communities, and the emergency management sector itself. Critical infrastructure entities can use the tool to understand where they might consider infrastructure upgrades to mitigate gaps of delivery following a fault rupture, and to consider their emergency response plans for delivery in an emergency (leading to their consideration of ‘planning emergency levels of service’). Communities can use the tool to understand what infrastructure outages will mean at the household level in an emergency, including the considerable distances that some community members will have to walk to access services such as food and water and prepare for prolonged outages. Finally, with a greater knowledge of the gaps in delivery and of those community members that might need assistance with food and water collection, the emergency management sector can be better prepared. The methodology for creating the webtool is described, along with the insights that the completed webtool provides for emergency planning.
Agriculture and forestry impact assessment for tephra fall hazard: fragility function development and New Zealand scenario application
(Volcanica, 2021-12-31) Craig HM; Wilson TM; Magill C; Stewart C; Wild AJ
Developing approaches to assess the impact of tephra fall on agricultural and forestry systems is essential for informing effective disaster risk management strategies. Fragility functions are commonly used as the vulnerability model within a loss assessment framework and represent the relationship between a given hazard intensity measure (HIM; e.g. tephra thickness) and the probability of impacts occurring. Impacts are represented using an impact state (IS), which categorises qualitative and quantitative statements into a numeric scale. This study presents IS schemes for pastoral, horticultural, and forestry systems, and a suite of fragility functions estimating the probability of each IS occurring for 13 sub-sectors. Temporal vulnerability is accounted for by a ‘temporality/seasonality coefficient,’ and a ‘fluoride toxicity coefficient’ is included to incorporate the increased vulnerability of pastoral farms when tephra is high in leachable fluoride. The fragility functions are then used to demonstrate a deterministic impact assessment with current New Zealand exposure.
Creating a post-earthquake emergency sanitation plan for the Wellington region, Aotearoa New Zealand
(Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience, 2022-07) Mowll R; Stewart C; Neely DP; Brenin M; Fisher M; Loodin N; Hutchison S
The Wellington region in Aotearoa New Zealand experiences regular earthquakes and is vulnerable to potentially lengthy outages of wastewater and road networks. Recognising this, a collaborative project was conducted between scientists and Wellington’s water network management company, emergency management body and regional public health authority to create a coherent emergency sanitation plan for a major wastewater system failure. This work built on a foundation of research and a pilot study previously carried out in the region on emergency sanitation. Workshops with project participants created a plan to provide communities and responders with clearly defined roles and responsibilities. The result is a plan that acknowledges constraints of provision but enables stakeholders and communities to take preparatory steps for, and respond to, sanitation outage events. The plan includes an important infographic about emergency sanitation options as well as what utility and healthcare organisations will do in the event of the plan’s activation.
Creating a ‘planning emergency levels of service’ framework – a silver bullet, or something useful for target practice?
(Elsevier B.V., 2023-06-01) Mowll R; Becker J; Wotherspoon L; Stewart C; Johnston D; Neely D
‘Planning Emergency Levels of Service’ (PELOS) are service delivery goals for infrastructure providers during and after an emergency event. These goals could be delivered through the existing infrastructure (e.g., pipes, lines, cables), or through other means (trucked water or the provision of generators). This paper describes how an operationalised framework of PELOS for the Wellington region, New Zealand was created, alongside the key stakeholders. We undertook interviews and workshops with critical infrastructure entities to create the framework. Through this process we found five themes that informed the context and development of the PELOS framework: interdependencies between critical infrastructure, the need to consider the vulnerabilities of some community members, emergency planning considerations, stakeholders’ willingness to collaborate on this research/project and the flexibility/adaptability of the delivery of infrastructure services following a major event. These themes are all explored in this paper. This research finds that the understanding of the hazardscape and potential outages from hazards is critical and that co-ordination between key stakeholders is essential to create such a framework. This paper may be used to inform the production of PELOS frameworks in other localities.
Ecological study of fractures in paedatric Melanesian communities with varying endemic environmental fluoride exposure
(MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2021-09) Webb E; Elmansouri A; Ross R; Clynes M; Tangis J; Stewart C; Dennison EM; Bahamonde RG
Introduction: Osteoporotic fracture is a major public health burden worldwide, causing significant mortality and morbidity. Studies that have reported bone health in areas of high endemic fluorosis have commonly reported adverse skeletal, as well as dental effects. Vanuatu, sited in the Pacific, and never previously studied with regard to bone health, has six continuous degassing volcanoes on separate islands, resulting in a natural experiment for an ecological study of relationships between naturally occurring fluoride exposure and fracture incidence in paediatric populations. Methods: This ecological study recruited 1026 lifetime residents of the rural Vanuatu islands. A short questionnaire was administered detailing gender, age, and residential history. Participants were asked if they had broken a bone and, if so, were asked to mark its location on a questionnaire manikin. Dental fluorosis was assessed using Dean’s index. Community drinking-water samples were sampled for fluoride concentration. Results: The measured water fluoride concentration and recorded dental fluorosis displayed expected gradients from Aneityum (low) to Ambrym (high) (p < 0.001). The age of participants studied varied from 7.8 (SD 1.2) in Aneityum to 10.6 (3.7) in Lamap/Uliveo. The highest self-reported fracture rates were recorded in the area with medium fluoride levels (Lamap/Uliveo), where 14.9% of boys and 15.6% of girls sampled reported a fracture. In Ambrym, where the mean age of participants was similar, corresponding fracture rates were 4.5% and 2.6%. (p value for differences all < 0.05). Conclusions: Reports of fractures were common in children living in Vanuatu, but demonstrably higher in Lamap, the region with medium fluoride concentrations, rather than Ambrym which had very high rates of naturally occurring fluoride levels. Longer term studies that report validated fracture after peak bone mass acquisition are required.
Editorial: Women in science: volcanology 2022
(Frontiers Media S.A., 2024-10-17) Moune S; Jenkins S; Stewart C; Schmidt A; Moune S; Jenkins S; Stewart C; Schmidt A
Impacts on water transport networks after three widespread volcanic ashfalls in Andean Patagonian lakes
(Presses Universitaires de Strasbourg, 2023-07-18) Salgado PA; Villarosa G; Beigt D; Outes V; Stewart C; Barazini F; Hornby A
Although the impacts of volcanic ashfall on air transport and land transport networks are well documented, little information exists about volcanic ash effects on water transport. Three recent widespread ashfall events severely affected the extensive shipping activity that takes place in the many lakes of Andean Patagonia, Argentina. By means of impact assessment fieldtrips, meetings, semi-structured interviews, and expert consultation, we surveyed and categorized impacts of volcanic ash on ships, ports and shipping activities, also assessing most effective mitigation strategies undertaken, including clean-up actions. To better catalogue type and severity of impacts, we expand on available damage scales developed for critical infrastructure, to include more specific details about water transport systems. Our contribution ultimately aims to communicate to emergency managers, and the volcanological and nautical communities, the most likely outcomes from explosive volcanic eruptions on shipping, along with best-practice advice for mitigating adverse effects.
Infrastructure planning emergency levels of service for the Wellington region, Aotearoa New Zealand – A preliminary framework
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022-04-01) Mowll R; Becker JS; Wotherspoon L; Stewart C; Johnston D; Neeley D; Rovins J; Ripley S
Elements of a potential emergency response to a major hazard event can be identified early in the response planning process. Having goals for emergency provision of services, particularly infrastructure, would provide clear planning goals and actions for emergency responders. Agreed goals would also help residents more fully understand the likely nature of the service provisions following a major hazard event, allowing them to plan for events and resulting infrastructure outages. This paper proposes a set of ‘planning emergency levels of service’ based in literature and developed by practitioners that could be used to understand post-event planning and actions, across the critical infrastructure sectors. The resulting framework contains proposed planning emergency levels of service for the energy, telecommunications, transport, and water sectors. With potential local adjustment, this framework may be more widely applicable for other high-income regions. Limitations of the framework include that it has been developed based on literature and emergency management professionals' opinions and requires more research to ascertain its operational applicability.
Learning from population displacement in the Pacific: case study of the 2017-2018 eruption of Ambae volcano, Vanuatu. SWOT analysis and recommendations.
(Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University, 2020-11-04) Rovins J; Stewart C; Brown N
The 2017-2018 eruption of Ambae volcano, Vanuatu, caused the entire population of the island (~11,700 people) to be evacuated off-island twice: firstly in October 2017, and then from the end of July 2018 until the end of October 2018, when the eruption ceased. This event presents a valuable opportunity to learn from a large-scale forced migration in a Pacific setting. Lessons from this event will advise and help to plan for future population displacements and forced migrations due to hazard and climate change events. For the first phase of this report, a review and analysis of the literature on internally displaced people was carried out, and used as the basis to design a questionnaire. Our field team visited the island of Santo, the destination for the majority of evacuees from Ambae, in February 2020, and carried out interviews with 42 evacuees, 26 female and 16 male, ranging in age from 21 to 82 over a four-day period. This report contains an event summary; a description of the research; a SWOT analysis; a discussion of key findings; recommendations; and an identification of future research needs.
Physicochemical hazard assessment of ash and dome rock from the 2021 eruption of La Soufriere St Vincent for the assessment of respiratory impacts and water contamination
(Geological Society of London, 2024-01-05) Horwell CJ; Damby DE; Stewart C; Joseph EP; Barclay J; Davies BV; Mangler MF; Marvin LG; Najorka J; Peek S; Tunstall N
La Soufrière, St Vincent, began an extrusive eruption on 27 December 2020. The lava dome was destroyed, along with much of the pre-existing 1979 dome, in explosive eruptions from 9 to 22 April 2021. Lava domes generate crystalline silica – inhalation of which can cause silicosis in occupational settings – which can become hazardous when dome material is incorporated into volcanic ash. La Soufrière ash (17 samples) was analysed, according to IVHHN protocols, to rapidly quantify crystalline silica and test for other health-relevant properties. The basaltic andesitic ash contained <5 wt% crystalline silica, which agrees with previous analyses of ash of similar compositions and mirrors the low quantities measured in dome samples (2 area %). It contained substantial inhalable material (7–21 vol% <10 µm). Few fibre-like particles were observed, reducing concern about particle shape. Leaching assays found low concentrations of potentially toxic elements, which indicates low potential to impact health, contaminate drinking-water sources or harm grazing animals through ingestion. Collectively, these data indicate that the primary health concern from this eruption was the potential for fine-grained ash to increase ambient particulate matter, an environmental risk factor for respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Precautionary measures were advised to minimize exposure.
Strategies for Implementing a One Welfare Framework into Emergency Management
(MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2021-11-03) Squance H; MacDonald C; Stewart C; Prasanna R; Johnston DM; Peli A
Responding to emergencies requires many different individuals and organisations to work well together under extraordinary circumstances. Unfortunately, the management of animal welfare in emergencies remains largely disconnected from emergency management overall. This is due predominately to professional silos and a failure to understand the importance of human-animal-environment (h-a-e) interdependencies. One Welfare (OW) is a concept with these interrelationships at its core. This paper argues that by adopting an OW framework it will be possible to achieve a transdisciplinary approach to emergency management in which all stakeholders acknowledge the importance of the h-a-e interdependencies and work to implement a framework to support this. Acknowledging that such a transformational change will not be easy, this paper proposes several strategies to overcome the challenges and optimise the outcomes for animal welfare emergency management (AWEM). These include legislation and policy changes including h-a-e interface interactions as business as usual, improving knowledge through interprofessional education and training, incorporating One Welfare champions, and recognising the role of animals as vital conduits into communities.
Tephra fall impacts to buildings: the 2017–2018 Manaro Voui eruption, Vanuatu
(Frontiers Media S.A., 2024-08-15) Jenkins SF; McSporran A; Wilson TM; Stewart C; Leonard G; Cevuard S; Garaebiti E; Varley N
Building damage from tephra falls can have a substantial impact on exposed communities around erupting volcanoes. There are limited empirical studies of tephra fall impacts on buildings, with none on tephra falls impacting traditional thatched timber buildings, despite their prevalence across South Pacific island nations and parts of Asia. The 2017/2018 explosive eruption of Manaro Voui, Ambae Island, Vanuatu, resulted in damage to traditional (thatched timber), non-traditional (masonry), and hybrid buildings from tephra falls in March/April and July 2018. Field and photographic surveys were conducted across three separate field studies with building characteristics and damage recorded for a total of 589 buildings. Buildings were classified using a damage state framework customised for this study. Overall, increasing tephra thicknesses were related to increasing severity of building damage, corroborating previous damage surveys and vulnerability estimates. Traditional buildings were found to be less resistant to tephra loading than non-traditional buildings, although there was variation in resistance within each building type. For example, some traditional buildings collapsed under ∼40 mm thickness while others sustained no damage when exposed to >200 mm. We attribute this to differences in the pre-eruption condition of the building and the implementation of mitigation strategies. Mitigation strategies included covering thatched roofs with tarpaulins, which helped shed tephra and consequently reduced loading, and providing an internal prop to the main roof beam, which aided structural resistance. As is typical of post-event building damage surveys, we had limited time and access to the exposed communities, and we note the limitations this had for our findings. Our results contribute to the limited empirical data available for tephra fall building damage and can be used to calibrate existing fragility functions, improving our evidence base for forecasting future impacts for similar construction types globally.
The International Volcanic Health Hazard Network (IVHHN): reflections on 20 years of progress
(Frontiers Media S.A., 2023-08-17) Horwell CJ; Baxter PJ; Damby DE; Elias T; Ilyinskaya E; Sparks RSJ; Stewart C; Tomašek I; Viccaro M
Thunderstorm asthma: a review, risks for Aotearoa New Zealand, and health emergency management considerations
(New Zealand Medical Association, 2022-07-01) Stewart C; Young NL; Kim ND; Johnston DM; Turner R
AIM: To provide an up-to-date review of thunderstorm asthma (TA), identifying causative factors, and to discuss implications for management of TA in New Zealand. METHODS: A literature search was carried out to identify articles that investigate the characteristics and causative factors of TA. Nine electronic databases were searched, yielding 372 articles, reduced to 30 articles after screening for duplication and relevance. RESULTS: TA is globally rare, with 29 reported events since 1983, but is expected to increase in frequency as Earth warms. Triggers include both pollen (particularly ryegrass pollen) and fungal spores. Individual risk factors include outdoor exposure, sensitivity to triggering allergens and history of seasonal allergic rhinitis. History of asthma is not a strong risk factor but is associated with severity of outcome. Limited data on demographic characteristics suggests that individuals aged between 20 and 60 and (in Australasia) of Asian/Indian ethnicity are at higher risk. A single TA event has been reported in New Zealand to date, but much of New Zealand may be at risk of future events given that ryegrass pastures are widely distributed, and summer thunderstorms can occur anywhere. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend developing rapidly deployable public messaging to support the health emergency management response to future TA events, together with the instigation of routine aeroallergen monitoring.
Timings of permanent tooth emergence in children of rural Vanuatu, Melanesia
(Pasifika Medical Association, 2021-12-30) Webb E; Stewart C; Woods L; Dunlop PF; Tangis J; Stephens J; Dennison E
Introduction: Global patterning and timing of permanent tooth emergence is influenced by ethnicity, with no known timings reported for ethnic Melanesian children living in the tropical archipelago of Vanuatu. Aim: To determine timings of permanent tooth emergence and sequencing for children who reside in rural Vanuatu Methods: Children aged 4-17 years (n=1026), part of a larger oral health cross-sectional study, were examined recording all permanent teeth present, across four spatially separated islands. Binary logistic modelling established children’s median age of emergence of each permanent tooth for each study area. Findings: The median emergence of first permanent molars for girls is 4.9-years and 5.3 -years for boys. In all locations, children had all permanent teeth emerge by age 11 years (excluding 3rd molars). Clinically important differences exist for permanent tooth emergence by study area. Discussion: Permanent teeth emerge earlier for Ni-Vanuatu children compared to both Melanesian children of Papua New Guinea as well as other ethnicities across Oceanic countries. These results can be used as a set standard for Vanuatu. Early tooth emergence suggests oral health education programmes should target pregnant women with clinical preventive strategies commencing for their children before 5-years of age.
Variability of naturally occurring fluoride in diverse community drinking-water sources, Tanna Island, Vanuatu
(IWA Publishing, 2021-07) Webb E; Stewart C; Sami E; Kelsey S; Fairbairn Dunlop P; Dennison E
Large variations in fluoride concentrations exist in natural waters, many of which are the source of community drinking-water supplies. Determining fluoride concentrations in community drinking waters can be challenging in developing Pacific countries such as Vanuatu that have limited laboratory capacity. Knowledge of naturally elevated fluoride concentrations that cause irreversible, adverse health outcomes may allow communities the opportunity to treat and manage their drinking-water supplies. Community drinking-water samples (n = 69), sourced from groundwaters, roof catchment rainwaters, surface waters and springs, were sampled on Tanna Island, Vanuatu between 2017 and 2020. In an 18 km2 area of Western Tanna, a set of 30 groundwater-based drinking-water samples had a median fluoride concentration of 3.3 mg/L, with 20 samples >1.5 mg/L and seven samples >4.0 mg/L. These concentrations increase the risk of dental and skeletal fluorosis, respectively. Repeat resampling at five sites showed little variation over the sampling period. Rainwater-fed drinking-water supplies were lower overall and highly variable in fluoride concentrations (<0.05–4.0 mg/L, median of 0.53 mg/L), with variable inputs from volcanic emissions from Yasur volcano. We recommend a comprehensive oral health and bone health study for the whole island to determine adverse health effects of excess fluoride in this vulnerable population.
Volcanic air pollution and human health: recent advances and future directions
(Springer Nature Switzerland AG on behalf of the International Association of Volcanology & Chemistry of the Earth's Interior, 2022-01) Stewart C; Damby DE; Horwell CJ; Elias T; Ilyinskaya E; Tomašek I; Longo BM; Schmidt A; Carlsen HK; Mason E; Baxter PJ; Cronin S; Witham C
Volcanic air pollution from both explosive and effusive activity can affect large populations as far as thousands of kilometers away from the source, for days to decades or even centuries. Here, we summarize key advances and prospects in the assessment of health hazards, effects, risk, and management. Recent advances include standardized ash assessment methods to characterize the multiple physicochemical characteristics that might influence toxicity; the rise of community-based air quality monitoring networks using low-cost gas and particulate sensors; the development of forecasting methods for ground-level concentrations and associated public advisories; the development of risk and impact assessment methods to explore health consequences of future eruptions; and the development of evidence-based, locally specific measures for health protection. However, it remains problematic that the health effects of many major and sometimes long-duration eruptions near large populations have gone completely unmonitored. Similarly, effects of prolonged degassing on exposed populations have received very little attention relative to explosive eruptions. Furthermore, very few studies have longitudinally followed populations chronically exposed to volcanic emissions; thus, knowledge gaps remain about whether chronic exposures can trigger development of potentially fatal diseases. Instigating such studies will be facilitated by continued co-development of standardized protocols, supporting local study teams and procuring equipment, funding, and ethical permissions. Relationship building between visiting researchers and host country academic, observatory, and agency partners is vital and can, in turn, support the effective communication of health impacts of volcanic air pollution to populations, health practitioners, and emergency managers.
Volcano breath: a rare 'vog' event in the eastern Bay of Plenty, Aotearoa New Zealand
(Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience, 2022-04-14) Stewart C; Iremonger S; Rosenberg M; Leonard G
Whakaari/White Island, located 50 km offshore and north of Whakatāne in the eastern Bay of Plenty, Aotearoa New Zealand is the country’s most active volcano. For more than a century, it has been in a state of constant unrest punctuated by small but hazardous eruptions. Often, the volcano emits a plume of water vapour and gases that are visible from the mainland. Residents of Whakatāne were reminded of Whakaari’s ‘volcano breath’ when a rare ‘vog’ episode occurred on 9 November 2021.

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