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    Where does scientific uncertainty come from, and from whom? Mapping perspectives of natural hazards science advice
    (Elsevier, 2023-10-01) Doyle EEH; Thompson J; Hill S; Williams M; Paton D; Harrison S; Bostrom A; Becker J
    The science associated with assessing natural hazard phenomena and the risks they pose contains many layers of complex and interacting elements, resulting in diverse sources of uncertainty. This creates a challenge for effective communication, which must consider how people perceive that uncertainty. Thus, we conducted twenty-five mental model interviews in Aotearoa New Zealand with participants ranging from scientists to policy writers and emergency managers, and through to the public. The interviews included three phases: an initial elicitation of free thoughts about uncertainty, a mental model mapping activity, and a semi-structured interview protocol to explore further questions about scientific processes and their personal philosophy of science. Qualitative analysis led to the construction of key themes, including: (a) understanding that, in addition to data sources, the ‘actors’ involved can also be sources of uncertainty; (b) acknowledging that factors such as governance and funding decisions partly determine uncertainty; (c) the influence of assumptions about expected human behaviours contributing to “known unknowns'; and (d) the difficulty of defining what uncertainty actually is. Participants additionally highlighted the positive role of uncertainty for promoting debate and as a catalyst for further inquiry. They also demonstrated a level of comfort with uncertainty and advocated for ‘sitting with uncertainty’ for transparent reporting in advice. Additional influences included: an individual's understanding of societal factors; the role of emotions; using outcomes as a scaffold for interpretation; and the complex and noisy communications landscape. Each of these require further investigation to enhance the communication of scientific uncertainty.
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    The effects of docosahexaenoic acid supplementation on cognition and well-being in mild cognitive impairment: A 12-month randomised controlled trial
    (John Wiley and Sons, Ltd, 2022-05) Mengelberg A; Leathem J; Podd J; Hill S; Conlon C
    OBJECTIVES: Several recent clinical trials have shown that docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) supplements have a significant effect on cognition in cognitively impaired older adults. This randomised controlled trial aimed to investigate the cognitive effects of a DHA fish oil supplement in older adults with mild cognitive impairment, and to examine the moderating effect of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ɛ4 allele on cognition and well-being. METHODS/DESIGN: Seventy-two older adults between the ages of 60 and 90 from New Zealand were given a DHA supplement equivalent to 1491 mg DHA + 351 mg eicosapentaenoic acid per day or a placebo for a period of 12 months. Outcome measures included cognition, wellbeing and self-rated quality of life as well as height, weight, blood pressure and APOE genotyping. RESULTS: The final analysis (n = 60) found no evidence of a treatment effect on cognitive measures, although did find a treatment effect on systolic blood pressure (p = 0.03, ƞ2  = 0.08), and a treatment interaction for APOE ɛ4 carriers on depression (p = 0.04, ƞ2  = 0.07) and anxiety (p = 0.02, ƞ2  = 0.09) scores in favour of the DHA supplement. CONCLUSIONS: Despite no effect on cognition, the positive result in APOE ɛ4 carriers on depression and anxiety scores and on systolic blood pressure justifies further DHA trials. It may be a prudent step going forward for more studies to replicate the design elements (dose, duration and cognitive measures) of previous DHA trials to help understand why not all older adults appear to benefit from taking a fish oil supplement.
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    Pain Across the Menstrual Cycle: Considerations of Hydration
    (Frontiers Media S.A., 8/10/2020) Tan B; Philipp M; Hill S; Che Muhamed AM; Mündel T
    Chronic pain - pain that persists for more than 3 months - is a global health problem and is associated with tremendous social and economic cost. Yet, current pain treatments are often ineffective, as pain is complex and influenced by numerous factors. Hypohydration was recently shown to increase ratings of pain in men, but studies in this area are limited (n = 3). Moreover, whether hypohydration also affects pain in women has not been examined. In women, changes in the concentrations of reproductive hormones across menstrual phases may affect pain, as well as the regulation of body water. This indicates potential interactions between the menstrual phase and hypohydration on pain, but this hypothesis has yet to be tested. This review examined the literature concerning the effects of the menstrual phase and hypohydration on pain, to explore how these factors may interact to influence pain. Future research investigating the combined effects of hypohydration and menstrual phase on pain is warranted, as the findings could have important implications for the treatment of pain in women, interpretation of previous research and the design of future studies.