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    Essays on spillover effects of economic and geopolitical uncertainty : a thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Finance at Massey University, Auckland (Albany), New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2020) Hasan, Mudassar
    We are living in an age of uncertainty. While uncertainty can originate from multiple sources, the most prominent ones include economic policies and geopolitical conditions. Over the past two decades, geopolitical and economic policy uncertainties have risen dramatically around the globe, raising concerns among policymakers and financial market participants about the cross-country and cross-market transmission effects of these uncertainties. Consequently, a growing body of literature has emerged around the measurement of uncertainty, the cross-country transmission of uncertainty, and the spillover effects of a given uncertainty for financial markets. By offering several advantages over other measures of uncertainty, news-based uncertainty indicators have become increasingly popular since the seminal work by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016). As the transmission of geopolitical uncertainty across countries and that of economic policy uncertainty to financial markets carry important implications for risk-management and policy-making decisions, it is crucial to understand and explain the behavior of these transmission mechanisms. By relying on news-based indicators of geopolitical and economic policy uncertainty, this thesis contributes to the literature by exploring the potential determinants of uncertainty transmission to stock markets as well as across countries. The first essay estimates and explains the cross-country transmission of geopolitical uncertainty (GPU). Using the news-based GPU indices for a sample of emerging economies along with the United States, the spillover models are employed to measure the pairwise and system-wide transmission of GPU. A substantial amount of GPU transmission is found across the sample countries, with some countries and geographical clusters are being more prominent than others. A cross-sectional analysis, motivated by a gravity model framework, is further utilized to explain the pairwise transmission of GPU, which reveals that bilateral linkages and country-specific factors play an essential role in driving the transmission of GPU. The overall findings continue to hold even after considering the short- and long-term time horizons. The findings of this essay may help predict the trajectory of GPU from one country to another, which is an essential input for the assessment of cross-border investment appraisals as well as international stability initiatives. A bulk of the literature has examined the impact of US uncertainty on international stock markets without paying much attention to the correlation between the US and the other stock markets. Motivated by this void in the extant literature, the second essay examines the role of US uncertainty in driving the US stock market’s spillovers to global stock markets, after controlling for the stock market correlation. To this end, I consider a wide range of stock markets around the world, as well as three news-based uncertainties from the US, namely economic policy uncertainty (EPU), equity market uncertainty, and equity market volatility. I find that the US uncertainties significantly cause the spillovers from the US to global stock markets. This causality from US uncertainties depends upon certain country-characteristics. Specifically, the US uncertainties explain better the spillovers between US and target countries, when those countries have a higher degree of financial openness, trade linkage with the US, and vulnerable fiscal position. Improved levels of stock market development in the target countries, however, mitigate their stock markets’ vulnerability to the US uncertainty shocks. The essay offers potential insights and implications for investors and policymakers. Inspired by the concerns that small open economies may well be more vulnerable to foreign uncertainty than to local uncertainty, the third essay focuses on New Zealand, which is a small open economy. This essay introduces a weekly EPU index for New Zealand and, and examines the return and volatility spillovers from NZ EPU and US EPU on the aggregate (NZSE) and sectoral indices of New Zealand stock market. Overall, the findings suggest that NZ equity sectors and NZSE receive much stronger and more pronounced spillover effects from US EPU compared to the local counterpart. While the return spillovers from both EPUs are somewhat similar yet limited to just a few sectors, the volatility spillovers from US EPU on NZ sectors outstrip those from the NZ EPU. For volatility spillovers, the domestically oriented sectors are relatively more vulnerable to NZ EPU, while those having export/import concentration with the US are mainly susceptible to US EPU. The findings of this essay may be useful to investors seeking sectoral diversification opportunities across New Zealand and the US.
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    Dependent development: a study of Thailand's economy within the world capitalist system : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy in Development Studies at Massey University
    (Massey University, 2003) Tapen, Teerasil
    Since Thailand was engaged by the Bowring Treaty with the British Government in 1855 ( Phongpaichit & Baker, 1995:15), the country has been pulled into the circle of world capitalist development. Hewison (1989) has distinguished three phases in the capitalist development in Thailand. The first phase was in the period of the absolute monarchy when a capitalist class (the Royal family and aristocracy) emerged from trading with Chinese and European traders. The second phase allowed the emergence of a petty bourgeoisie and labour class, especially after the Second World War. The bourgeois class grew by the conglomeration between Thai and Chinese tycoons dominating the transaction sectors of banking, manufacturing, and agro-industry. The last phase began in the 1970s with the new generation of capitalist classes. These classes performed their economic activities in high technology and higher value-added manufacturing. At the same time, uneven development can be seen in the disparity between rich and poor, urban and rural area. This unevenness seems to be broader and more severe, from the statistics of Thailand's annual household income by region , between 1962-1995 (Medhi Krongkaew, cited in Rigg 1997:88), the scissor effect in the growth ratio between those m Bangkok and other regions is prevalent. In this thesis, the focus will be put on the latter of these phases, especially at the beginning of the 1960s - which has been known as the period of Cold War - in conjunction with the launch of the first national economic and social development plan in Thailand. This development will be reviewed until the regional economic crisis in 1997-1998 and some information of IMF assistance to Thailand will be drawn upon to assess the exemplification of the Thai economy as a dependent capitalist development. [First two paragraphs of chapter 1.]
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    New Zealand's energy policy from the world system perspective : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy in Development Studies at Massey University
    (Massey University, 1994) Debahasatin, Jutha
    The World-System Theory of Immanuel Wallerstein is a grand-scale theory that is useful as a framework to understand how New Zealand's path of development has been affected by the country's energy policy. The theory is appropriate in application to energy issues because its macro-level of analysis puts emphasis on both exogenous and endogenous factors. Its special emphasis on historical background and context also adds to an understanding of the New Zealand position. The World-System perspective offers three major concepts directly applicable to the case of New Zealand energy policy, namely, the interplay between politics and economics with a particular interest in the role of multinational corporations (MNCs) and the state, the notion of semiperiphery, and the cyclical nature of the world economy. During the period of the 1970s economic downturn marked by two oil crises, New Zealand as well as most other countries and the MNCs suffered a severe setback. However, while most core states, as well as some successful non-core states and the oil majors, could react appropriately to the crises and retain their potential for growth, the semiperipheral New Zealand could not. The country possessed few options because of her intermediate level of industrialisation and less competent state apparatus compared to the MNCs involved. Lacking the intention to promote local industrial capitalists, the New Zealand state chose wrong strategies, first Think Big and then disinvestment, which together have undermined the bargaining position of local entrepreneurs, over-committed the national hydrocarbon resource and disproportionately promoted the interest of the foreign oil corporations. The overall outcome of the energy policy is therefore detrimental to the country's development.
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    The IMF and World Bank in Papua New Guinea : all powerful? : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Economics at Massey University
    (Massey University, 2000) Middleton, Grant
    In international political economy, international institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank are often looked upon as significant forces, capable of imposing their will on sovereign governments. Through the onerous conditions attached to their loans and assistance, these institutions, it is argued, are able to interfere in the economic and political affairs of a country, with significant implications. This thesis assesses this claim with reference to Papua New Guinea (PNG) in the 1990s. It suggests that while severe demands were certainly placed on the government on the occasions assistance was requested, owing to the unique socio-political structure of PNG, demands in some critical areas have been circumvented or even ignored. It appears, therefore, that at least in the case of PNG, these institutions have not been wholly successful in imposing their agendas. In the light of this, the wider assertion of the IMF and World Bank being all-powerful should be treated with some caution.
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    Reasserting the local in the global : local livelihoods and sustainable development in the proposed East Rennell World Heritage site, Solomon Islands : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy in Development Studies, Massey University
    (Massey University, 1996) Purdie, Nicholas Simon
    This thesis assesses the relationships between the sustainable development approach to integrating environmental and developmental concerns, and that approach suggested by the concept of sustainable livelihoods. In the context of the East Rennell World Heritage Project in Solomon Islands, the nature of sustainable development as it is operationalised at the local level, and the reality of people's livelihoods within the boundaries of that project, are assessed to determine where sustainable development meets livelihoods to both support and enhance them, and the implications which a sustainable livelihoods approach has for sustainable development. Over the last fifteen years the concept of sustainable development has been promoted at the global level as a means by which environmental integrity may be maintained, and at the same time allow for the continued development of human economic and social systems to improve the welfare of poor people. Arising out of the twin concerns that development was not meeting its primary goal of alleviating poverty, and at the same time was placing environmental systems in jeopardy, the concept of sustainable development is now a central theme within global development discourse. Alternatively, the concept of sustainable livelihoods has been presented as a 'new analysis' of the reality of the lives of local people and the problems they encounter as they attempt to construct viable livelihoods for themselves, and represents an alternative strategy for integrating environmental and developmental concerns at the local level. The rationale for using such an approach to environment and development is that only by ensuring that all people have access to an adequate and secure livelihood will further goals of sustainability be able to be obtained. This thesis presents the results of research undertaken in Solomon Islands over a three month period in 1995. The research is presented as two village case studies incorporporating the results of Participatory Rural Appraisal surveys undertaken at Tevaitahe and Niupani villages in the proposed East Rennell World Heritage Site. The general conclusion reached is that although sustainable development attempts to assist local people in conserving their resources and develop income generating business based on ecotourism, the nature of this sustainable development to a certain extent precludes the achievement of sustainable livelihoods.The suggestion is given, therefore, that the sustainable livelihoods infer an alternative approach to development.
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    Free trade or fair trade? How changes in the current international trade system could act as a development tool for third world countries : the Brazilian case : a thesis presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy in Development Studies at Massey University
    (Massey University, 2002) Couto, Rossana Gabriely de Oliveira
    This study analyses and discusses the impacts of fair trade on cooperatives in Brazil. It also addresses the debate on free trade, showing its weaknesses and strengths; and it acknowledges the importance of governments' macropolicies in promoting development though trade. This study supports the view that international trade, as practised today, is detrimental to the economies of Third World countries, and it suggests actions to overcome negative impacts of international trade. One of these suggestions is alternative trade. However, this study argues that alternative trade, although an efficient tool in promoting the interests of small farmers, poor communities, and unskilled workers, should not be substituted for mainstream trade. Instead, alternative trade should act as a complement and promote the interests of those who have been losing with trade liberalisation policies. In examining one of the alternatives to free trade (the fair trade movement) research was conducted in Brazil in 2001. The evidence from research shows that although fair trade is found in its initial stages in Brazil, the impact has been beneficial to those cooperatives involved with it. The research also found differences between rural and urban participants. Groups in a rural context shared same experiences and types of products (agriculture), while groups in an urban context shared different experiences and were involved in other types of products (manufactures). Although all groups shared some similar difficulties, rural groups were more disadvantaged in terms of the distance, lack of infrastructure, communication problems, and lack of access to services. This study concludes that although the fair trade movement is still in its initial stages in Brazil and has had minor macroeconomic impacts on the Brazilian economy, it should be encouraged since it creates opportunities for marginalised groups to sell their production and reach a minimum standard of living. The study also argues that both alternative and mainstream trading system have their strengths and weaknesses, and that the ideas behind alternative trade should be incorporated into the mainstream trading system in order to make it fairer to all participants.
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    State practice and rural smallholder production : late-colonialism and the agrarian doctrine in Papua New Guinea, 1942-1969 : a thesis presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Development Studies at Massey University
    (Massey University, 1999) Wright, Huntley Lloyd Rayne
    This study shows why and how late-colonial state practice in Papua New Guinea became synonymous with the development of a centrally regulated scheme of rural household production. It is suggested that the origins of the scheme lie not in its supposed pre-adaptiveness to previously existing ('non-capitalist') social relations, nor in its external, 'subsidising' effect on capital accumulation. Rather, its origins lie in the changing politico-economic realities of post-Second World War global capitalism and the corresponding shift to social trusteeship which, in transmitting metropolitan ideas on 'full employment' to the colonies, sought to reconcile indigenous welfare with expanded rural commodity production. Key objects of analysis include the late-colonial state, the household labour process and the agrarian doctrine of development. It is argued that a serious weakness in much of the literature on Papua New Guinea is the tendency to conflate the distinction between immanent and intentional development, so that the negative dimension implicit in the latter is excluded from discussion. Whereas the immanent implies an unintentional process, unfolding outside the regulatory capacity of the colonial state, the intentional refers to the conscious application of state power to ameliorate the negative consequences explicit in the former - poverty and the emergence of a relative surplus population. The present study seeks to recapture the negative dimension of the late-colonial intent to develop in Papua New Guinea. It is argued that the post-war ascendancy of household production is given in the formation of an agrarian doctrine which, in positing the middle peasant as a developmental ideal, sought to use state policy to check landlessness by recasting the capital-labour relation in agriculture. The intent was to regenerate the 'old' within a welfarist agenda defined in opposition to the "landless proletariat". Securing this process was a fundamental shift in the relationship between the colonial state and international capital. In the period 1919-1939 the movement of capital was essentially spontaneous, albeit subject to regulatory controls on land and labour. However, for the period under consideration the "order of intervention was reversed". Reflecting a major increase in power and capacity, the colonial state "assembled capital" to be superintended as part of the Administration's plan for expanding indigenous commodity production. It is in this recasting of late-colonial state practice that the dominance of household production is situated.
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    The role of foreign direct investment in socio-economic development : a case study of Vietnam during the transition period : a thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at Massey University, Turitea Campus, Palmerston North, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2001) Pham, Hoang Mai
    The role of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the socio-economic development of developing countries, especially countries in transition toward a market-oriented economy, has been the topic of debate between several schools of thought, notably the mainstream and radical views. The mainstream view argues that FDI flows cover the savings-investment, foreign exchange, technological and fiscal gaps in developing countries, and hence promote economic growth. In contrast, the radical view argues that FDI flows are detrimental to socio-economic development, they have not supplemented but substituted for domestic savings, and thus they have deteriorated the balance of payments and failed to address poverty problems in developing countries. In reality, FDI flows have provided positive impacts on socio-economic development in some developing countries, especially Asian newly industrialising countries (NICs), but generated many detrimental effects in other developing countries. In Asian NICs, FDI flows tend to be useful and have fewer detrimental effects because the governments of those countries have intervened appropriately and created favourable environments for FDI through implementing export-oriented industrialisation strategies. In the case of Vietnam, about $35.3 billion of FDI was committed, of which $14.2 billion was implemented, over the 1988-1998 period. Such large amounts of FDI flows have created significant impacts on the socio-economic development of Vietnam. Over the 1988-1998 period, FDI flows have accounted for around one-third of Vietnam's investment, over 20 percent of Vietnam' exports in 1998 and overall, between 1 percent to 1.5 percent of annual GDP growth. However, the unequal allocation of FDI flows between regions and provinces in Vietnam may promote socio-economic development in some regions and provinces but also widen the gap between rich and poor regions. The overall success of attracting and utilising FDI flows in Vietnam has been attributed to the role of government policies that maximise the positive impacts and minimise the detrimental effects of FDI flows. Government's tax preference policies and domestic protection policies have been found to play an important role in the performance of foreign-invested enterprises.
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    The politics of economic restructuring in the Pacific with a case study of Fiji : a thesis presented in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, Department of Social Policy and Social Work, School of Social and Cultural studies, Massey University, Albany Campus, Auckland
    (Massey University, 2004) Slatter, Claire
    The subject of this thesis is the politics of economic restructuring, euphemistically termed 'reform' in the Pacific. Although structural adjustment policies are essentially neoliberal economic policies, the project of global economic restructuring, and its supposed end, a global regime of free trade, is a political one in several respects. It involves the wielding of economic power over developing countries by powerful multilateral institutions, developed countries and private corporate entities to such a degree that it is considered by some to represent the disciplining/subjugating and dis-empowering of developing states. It is supported by a successfully propagated ideology that combines economic growth theories (held to be infallible), 'good governance' rhetoric (with which no-one can reasonably disagree), and new notions of equality and 'non-discrimination' - the 'level playing field' and 'national treatment, in WTO parlance (which have been enshrined in enforceable global trade rules). It entails redefining the role of the state, transferring public ownership of assets to private hands, and removing subsidies that protect domestic industries and jobs, all of which are strongly contested. Successfully implementing 'reform' is widely acknowledged to require not only 'reform champions' but also 'ownership', and thus broad acceptance and legitimacy, yet commitments to restructuring are often made by government ministers without reference at all to national parliaments. National economic summits are used to rubber stamp or legitimate policies in a fait accompli. The thesis begins by situating the global regime of structural adjustment within the political context of North-South relations in the 1970s, the debt crisis of the early 1980s, and the collapse of socialist regimes and consequent discrediting of the socialist economic model and other variants of state-led development. It shows the key role of the World Bank in advocating the neoliberal model and setting the development aid agenda, and its abdication of this lead role after 1995 in favour of the World Trade Organisation and its agenda of global trade liberalisation. The thesis then examines the origins, agents and interests behind structural reform in the island states of the Pacific before focusing on how a regional approach to achieving regional wide economic restructuring and trade liberalisation is being taken, using a regional political organisation of Pacific Island states (The Pacific Islands Forum), and regional free trade agreements. It then illustrates the path of economic restructuring embarked on by Fiji following the 1987 coups, examines the implementation of 'economic reform' concurrently with policies to advance the interests of indigenous Fijians, and discusses some of the less acknowledged dimensions of reform.
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    Agricultural export growth and economic development for Tonga : the quest for efficiency : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Public Policy at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2008) Kautoke-Holani, Alisi Wenonalita
    Neo-liberalism has become the dominant approach to economic development since the 1980s. Based on the economic principle of “efficiency”, the Washington Consensus and its supporters have avidly promoted the neoliberal orthodoxy as the ideal blueprint for the economic development of all countries in every region. However, as this thesis has discovered, the efficiency of public policy is weighed not by its conformity to an ideology but on how effective it responds to the economic and social problems of the population in question. In recent years Tonga has endured severe economic shocks which have pushed its low growth economy to the brink of economic crisis. In response to this crisis, the Government has chosen greater economic liberalisation and private sector – led growth to lead the economy to recovery. The Washington Consensus and its international supporters claim that this is the best policy response for Tonga due to the belief that greater liberalisation leads to greater efficiency. This thesis however believes that at the current dire state of the economy, it is not enough for Tongan public policy to just conform to international views on efficient economic development but to ensure that its economic development policies address the economic and social needs of the general Tongan population. With this in mind, this thesis investigated the role of agriculture in economic development. It identified that for an agriculture-based country such as Tonga, at low levels of growth, agricultural development is fundamental to long term economic growth. This research also revealed that agricultural growth is maximised through trade hence suggesting increased focus on agricultural export development. Based on these findings, this research project set out to verify the efficiency of Government agricultural policies by identifying the views of agricultural exporters and comparing these with Government approaches to agricultural export development in Tonga.