Earnings surprises, investors sentiments and contrarian strategies
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Date
2017
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EconJournals
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Abstract
This study documents that contrarian investment strategies offer superior returns because these strategies exploit investors’ expectation errors. There
are two sources of expectation errors, naïve extrapolation of past performance and biased analysts’ earnings forecasts. Our results suggest that investors
naively extrapolate past performance and overestimate the future growth rates of glamour stocks relative to value stocks. In addition, analysts tend
to be excessively pessimistic about value stocks and over optimistic about glamour stocks. We find that both positive earnings surprises and negative
earnings surprises significantly affect subsequent returns. However, negative earnings surprises have less impact on value stocks relative to glamour
stocks. We also find new evidence that investor sentiments could be an alternative source of superior performances from value stocks. Our results
indicate that when the investor sentiment is higher, value stocks earn significant higher returns than glamour stocks.
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Citation
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2017, 7 (1), pp. 133 - 143 (10)