The development of a decision support system for an animal disease emergency : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at Massey University
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Date
1993
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Massey University
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Abstract
An epidemiological information management system (EpiMAN) has been developed to aid the
Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries (MAF) contain and eradicate a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)
epidemic, should one ever occur. Design objectives for the information management elements of the
system included the need to manage the vast quantities of data that eradication procedures for an
epidemic would be expected to generate within a very short time; the ability to apply current
epidemiological understanding of disease spread to the data processing tasks; to reduce some of the
foreseen processing bottlenecks; and to provide decision support to the data entry personnel. Design
objectives for the veterinary management elements of the system included the presentation of up-todate
status reports in formats that facilitate national decision-making; the ability to optimize manpower
resource allocation; and the capacity to evaluate the relative merits of alternative technical decisions,
each of which carried different implicit risks.
The system combines a database management system (DBMS), a geographic information
system (GIS), expert system elements, various models of specific aspects of FMD epidemiology, and a
statistical analysis capability. EpiMAN comprises tightly coupled spatial and textual databases. Farm
locations and other geographical information are managed by the GIS, while the textual component
incorporating farm profile information and epidemic data is manipulated by the DBMS. The models of
spread of FMD and the expert systems jointly provide the epidemiological knowledge components.
The models are linked to the databases to help quantify the risks of FMD spread and allow the
evaluation of management options, based on the current situation. The expert systems advise various
operational sections of the emergency headquarters (EHQ) on priorities for control activities. The
analytical system (termed the epidemiologist's workbench) is an integrated suite of tools which allows
the state of the epidemic to be examined and control options to be evaluated.
The system has been designed as a transportable system to operate wherever the EHQ is set up.
It is implemented as a multi-user system, with the database server and the GIS each residing on a
UNIX workstation, with IBM-compatible PCs used as terminals. Communications links to MAF's
computer network are provided for.
It is hoped the system will never need to be used for a FMD emergency in New Zealand.
However the system can be easily adapted for use in other countries, and the methodology is also being
extended to other disease syndromes.
A number of studies were conducted to assess the risk of FMD entry into New Zealand, and
examine the potential for disease spread through normal farm movement patterns. The best current
estimate of the risk of an FMD outbreak is about once in 50 years (0.0199). The mean expected
number of FMD infected secondary properties under MAF's exotic diseases and pests responses
programme is 61 (median 33, range 1 to 1103). In order to contain 95% of the movements that might
occur off an index farm prior to diagnosis, an infected area would have to have a radius of 100 km
around the property. A cost benefit analysis supported the development of EpiMAN.
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Keywords
Epidemiological information management system, Foot-and-mouth disease, Information management system, Database management system, Epidemiology