Are the Northland rivers of New Zealand in synchrony with global Holocene climate change? : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Geography at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
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Date
2013
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Massey University
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Abstract
Climate during the Holocene has not been stable, and with predictions of human induced
climate change it has become increasingly important to understand the underlying ‘natural’
dynamics of the global climate system. Fluvial systems are sensitive respondents to and
recorders of environmental change (including climate).
This research integrates meta-data analysis of a New Zealand fluvial radiocarbon (14C)
database with targeted research in catchments across the Northland region to determine the
influence of Holocene climate change on river behaviour in New Zealand, and to assess
whether or not Northland rivers are in synchrony with global climate change. The research
incorporates 14C dating and meta-analysis techniques, sedimentology, geophysics, ground
survey (RTK-dGPS) and Geographic Information Systems analysis to investigate the
response of New Zealand and Northland rivers to Holocene climate and anthropogenic
change.
The emerging pattern of Holocene river behaviour in New Zealand is one of increased river
activity in southern regions (South Island) in response to enhanced westerly atmospheric
circulation (promoted by negative Southern Annular Mode [SAM]-like circulation), while in
northern regions (North Island) river activity is enhanced by meridional atmospheric
circulation (promoted by La Niña-like and positive SAM-like circulation). In Northland,
Holocene floodplain development reflects the interplay between valley configuration and
accommodation space, sediment supply, fluctuation in climate and anthropogenic factors in
the last several hundred years. Evidence from Northland rivers suggests that a globally
extensive abrupt climate change signal can promote a synchronous fluvial response,
overprinting complex regional patterns of Holocene river behaviour.
The research demonstrates that at the centennial-scale, regional atmospheric circulation
change is a key driver of river behaviour, with anthropogenic catchment disturbance
responsible for enhanced river activity and floodplain aggradation in the last ~ 500 years. It
is therefore likely that any future climate change involving a shift in the atmospheric
circulation regime will have an impact on river behaviour in New Zealand. However, at the
catchment- or reach-scale, river response will be largely determined by local controls such as
sediment supply and accommodation space, with these factors largely moderated by the
post-settlement fluvial history.
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Keywords
Paleolimnology, Paleoclimatology, Climatic changes, Rivers, Holocene, Climate change, New Zealand