Approaching the challenge of multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic impact assessment through the lens of systemic risk: application to Taranaki Mounga

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dc.citation.issue10
dc.citation.volume120
dc.contributor.authorWeir AM
dc.contributor.authorWilson TM
dc.contributor.authorBebbington MS
dc.contributor.authorBeaven S
dc.contributor.authorGordon T
dc.contributor.authorCampbell-Smart C
dc.contributor.authorMead S
dc.contributor.authorWilliams JH
dc.contributor.authorFairclough R
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-10T20:37:15Z
dc.date.available2024-10-10T20:37:15Z
dc.date.issued2024-08-01
dc.description.abstractEffective volcanic impact and risk assessment underpins effective volcanic disaster risk management. Yet contemporary volcanic risk assessments face a number of challenges, including delineating hazard and impact sequences, and identifying and quantifying systemic risks. A more holistic approach to impact assessment is required, which incorporates the complex, multi-hazard nature of volcanic eruptions and the dynamic nature of vulnerability before, during and after a volcanic event. Addressing this need requires a multidisciplinary, integrated approach, involving scientists and stakeholders to co-develop decision-support tools that are scientifically credible and operationally relevant to provide a foundation for robust, evidence-based risk reduction decisions. This study presents a dynamic, longitudinal impact assessment framework for multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic events and applies the framework to interdependent critical infrastructure networks in the Taranaki region of Aotearoa New Zealand, where Taranaki Mounga volcano has a high likelihood of producing a multi-phase explosive eruption within the next 50 years. In the framework, multi-phase scenarios temporally alternate multi-hazard footprints with risk reduction opportunities. Thus, direct and cascading impacts and any risk management actions carry through to the next phase of activity. The framework forms a testbed for more targeted mitigation and response planning and allows the investigation of optimal intervention timing for mitigation strategies during an evolving eruption. Using ‘risk management’ scenarios, we find the timing of mitigation intervention to be crucial in reducing disaster losses associated with volcanic activity. This is particularly apparent in indirect, systemic losses that cascade from direct damage to infrastructure assets. This novel, dynamic impact assessment approach addresses the increasing end-user need for impact-based decision-support tools that inform robust response and resilience planning.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.edition.editionAugust 2024
dc.format.pagination9327-9360
dc.identifier.citationWeir AM, Wilson TM, Bebbington MS, Beaven S, Gordon T, Campbell-Smart C, Mead S, Williams JH, Fairclough R. (2024). Approaching the challenge of multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic impact assessment through the lens of systemic risk: application to Taranaki Mounga. Natural Hazards. 120. 10. (pp. 9327-9360).
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11069-023-06386-z
dc.identifier.eissn1573-0840
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn0921-030X
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/71680
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherSpringer Nature
dc.publisher.urihttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-023-06386-z
dc.relation.isPartOfNatural Hazards
dc.rights(c) 2024 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectVolcanic risk assessment
dc.subjectDisaster impact assessment
dc.subjectCo-creation
dc.subjectDynamic risk
dc.subjectDisaster risk reduction
dc.subjectAotearoa New Zealand
dc.titleApproaching the challenge of multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic impact assessment through the lens of systemic risk: application to Taranaki Mounga
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id485956
pubs.organisational-groupOther
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