Estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling

Simple item page
dc.citation.volume6
dc.contributor.authorSmith NW
dc.contributor.authorFletcher AJ
dc.contributor.authorMillard P
dc.contributor.authorHill JP
dc.contributor.authorMcNabb WC
dc.contributor.editorRidoutt BG
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-13T22:12:05Z
dc.date.available2024-10-13T22:12:05Z
dc.date.issued2022-12-16
dc.description.abstractIntroduction: The production of plant crops is foundational to the global food system. With the need for this system to become more sustainable while feeding an increasing global population, tools to investigate future food system scenarios can be useful to aid decision making, but are often limited to a calorie- or protein-centric view of human nutrition. Methods: Here, a mathematical model for forecasting the future cropland requirement to produce a given quantity of crop mass is presented in conjunction with the DELTA ModelĀ®: an existing food system scenario model calculating global availability of 29 nutrients against human requirements. The model uses national crop yield data to assign yield metrics for 137 crops. Results: The crops with the greatest variation between high and low yielding production were specific nuts, fruits, and vegetables of minor significance to global nutrient availability. The nut crop group showed the greatest overall yield variation between countries, and thus the greatest uncertainty when forecasting the cropland requirement for future increases in production. Sugar crops showed the least overall yield variation. The greatest potential for increasing global food production by improving poor yielding production was found for the most widely grown crops: maize, wheat, and rice, which were also demonstrated to be of high nutritional significance. Discussion: The combined cropland and nutrient availability model allowed the contribution of plant production to global nutrition to be quantified, and the cropland requirement of future food production scenarios to be estimated. The unified cropland estimation and nutrient availability model presented here is an intuitive and broadly applicable tool for use in global food system scenario modeling. It should benefit future research and policy making by demonstrating the implications for human nutrition of changes to crop production, and conversely the implications for cropland requirement of food production scenarios aimed at improving nutrition.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.identifier.citationSmith NW, Fletcher AJ, Millard P, Hill JP, McNabb WC. (2022). Estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. 6.
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fsufs.2022.1063419
dc.identifier.eissn2571-581X
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.number1063419
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/71693
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherFrontiers Media S.A.
dc.publisher.urihttps://www.frontiersin.org/journals/sustainable-food-systems/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2022.1063419/full
dc.relation.isPartOfFrontiers in Sustainable Food Systems
dc.rights(c) The author/sen
dc.rights.licenseCC BYen
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectglobal food system
dc.subjectfood security
dc.subjectcomputational modeling
dc.subjecthuman nutrition
dc.subjectsustainability
dc.titleEstimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id458891
pubs.organisational-groupOther
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Published version.pdf
Size:
1.54 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
458891 PDF.pdf
Download
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Evidence 1
Size:
507.43 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Data_Sheet_1_Estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling.PDF
Download
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Evidence 2
Size:
13.45 KB
Format:
Microsoft Excel
Description:
Data_Sheet_2_Estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling.XLSX
Download
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Evidence 3
Size:
19.16 KB
Format:
Comma-Separated Values
Description:
Data_Sheet_3_Estimating cropland requirements for global food system senario modeling.CSV
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
9.22 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
Collections
Journal Articles