Social vulnerabilities and wildfire evacuations: A case study of the 2019 Kincade fire
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Date
2024-05-31
Open Access Location
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier B.V.
Rights
(c) 2024 The Author/s
CC BY 4.0
CC BY 4.0
Abstract
Vulnerable populations (e.g., populations with lower income or disabilities) are disproportionately impacted by natural hazards like wildfires. It is crucial to develop equitable and effective evacuation strategies to meet their unique needs. While existing studies offer valuable insights, we need to improve our understanding of how vulnerabilities affect wildfire evacuation decision-making, as well as how this varies spatially. The goal of this study is to conduct an in-depth analysis of the impacts of social vulnerabilities on aggregated evacuation decisions, including evacuation rates, delay in departure time, and evacuation destination distance by leveraging large-scale GPS data generated by mobile devices. Specifically, we inferred evacuation decisions at the level of the census block group, a geographic unit defined by the U.S. Census, utilizing GPS data. We then employed ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression models to investigate the impacts of social vulnerabilities on evacuation decisions. We also used Moran's I to test if these impacts were consistent across different block groups. The 2019 Kincade Fire in Sonoma County, California, was used as the case study. The impacts of social vulnerabilities on evacuation rates show significant spatial variations across block groups, whereas their effects on the other two decision types do not. Additionally, unemployment, a factor under-explored in previous studies, was identified as contributing to both an increased delay in departure time and a reduction in destination distance of evacuees at the aggregate level. Furthermore, upon comparing the significant factors across different models, we observed that some of the vulnerabilities contributing to evacuation rates for all residents differed from those affecting the delay in departure time and destination distance, which only applied to evacuees. These new insights can guide emergency managers and transportation planners to enhance equitable wildfire evacuation planning and operations.
Description
Keywords
Social vulnerability, Wildfire, Bushfire, Evacuation, GPS data, Equity
Citation
Sun Y, Forrister A, Kuligowski ED, Lovreglio R, Cova TJ, Zhao X. (2024). Social vulnerabilities and wildfire evacuations: A case study of the 2019 Kincade fire. Safety Science. 176.