How well do psychologists' research methods equip them to identify the impacts of climate change on behaviour? : a methodological investigation with particular reference to the effects of temperature on violent behaviour : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand
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Date
2015
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Massey University
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Abstract
The Earth’s temperature is rising, and it is extremely likely that human activities are
primarily to blame (IPCC, 2013b). A changing climate could have serious consequences
for human behaviour and psychological functioning. Research concerned with the
psychological impacts of climate change is challenging, however, given the paucity of
data showing how human behaviour has responded to sustained climate changes in the
past. In this thesis, I critique the suitability of psychologists’ mainstream
methodological strategies for engaging in research concerned with the impacts of
climate change. In doing so, I draw heavily on a specific “testbed” of psychological
research relevant to climate change: Research concerned with the impact of temperature
on the incidence of intra- and interpersonal violence. In identifying methodological
problems I draw both on published literature as well as an empirical engagement in
research in this area. The empirical component constitutes an analysis of the
relationship between temperature and the incidence of assault, suicide, and self-harm
resulting in hospitalisation in New Zealand. In this analysis I found that irregular dayto-
day variation in temperature had a positive relationship with all three forms of
violence. However, there was less evidence that more sustained (seasonal or
geographical) differences in temperature led to increased violence, making it difficult to
predict the effects of sustained increases in temperature in the future. In the
methodological critique section of this thesis, I point out several methodological
problems that may hamper psychologists’ capacity to produce effective and useful
research concerned with the impacts of climate change. These problems include the use
of measurement and analysis strategies that limit our ability to convey the sizes of
effects; the use of theories and analyses that limit our ability to make predictions; and
the inadequate reporting of uncertainty. Finally, I recommend that psychologists
studying climate change impacts should consider using categorisations of behaviour
rather than psychometric scales that lack clear units of measurement; use statistics that
effectively communicate effect size; apply theories that facilitate prediction-making;
carefully take into account the role of time when generating predictions; and account for
multiple sources of uncertainty that affect the confidence of our conclusions.
Description
Listed in 2015 Dean's List of Exceptional Theses
Keywords
Climatic changes, Temperature, Psychological aspects, Violence, Environmental psychology, Dean's List of Exceptional Theses