Using drivers and transmission pathways to identify SARS-like coronavirus spillover risk hotspots.
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Date
2023-10-27
Open Access Location
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Springer Nature Limited
Rights
(c) 2023 The Author/s
CC BY 4.0
CC BY 4.0
Abstract
The emergence of SARS-like coronaviruses is a multi-stage process from wildlife reservoirs to people. Here we characterize multiple drivers-landscape change, host distribution, and human exposure-associated with the risk of spillover of zoonotic SARS-like coronaviruses to help inform surveillance and mitigation activities. We consider direct and indirect transmission pathways by modeling four scenarios with livestock and mammalian wildlife as potential and known reservoirs before examining how access to healthcare varies within clusters and scenarios. We found 19 clusters with differing risk factor contributions within a single country (N = 9) or transboundary (N = 10). High-risk areas were mainly closer (11-20%) rather than far ( < 1%) from healthcare. Areas far from healthcare reveal healthcare access inequalities, especially Scenario 3, which includes wild mammals and not livestock as secondary hosts. China (N = 2) and Indonesia (N = 1) had clusters with the highest risk. Our findings can help stakeholders in land use planning, integrating healthcare implementation and One Health actions.
Description
Keywords
Animals, Humans, Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus, Animals, Wild, Mammals, Risk Factors, Livestock
Citation
Muylaert RL, Wilkinson DA, Kingston T, D'Odorico P, Rulli MC, Galli N, John RS, Alviola P, Hayman DTS. (2023). Using drivers and transmission pathways to identify SARS-like coronavirus spillover risk hotspots.. Nat Commun. 14. 1. (pp. 6854-).